jayalexander Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Just wanted to share an interesting system that I have devised... I have been tracking beaten favourites in races (not Irish) where only one BF has been entered and there have been some decent priced winners, recently. Here's a run down of the records since I started: 14/4: Ipswich Lad 6.4 13/4: Over the Creek 10.72 12/4: Robindesherwood 7.02 11/4: no winners, although only two that fit the criteria ran! 10/4: Copperwood 16.98 9/4: two winners, not termed 'decent priced' 8/4: Lewyn 11.0 There were also plenty more runners that finished in place positions if that's your thing. 2/7/10 - A rundown of the rules: - Maidens are not included (although a few may have slipped through the net) - Most Novice races are not included (80% of the field must have an OR) - Hunter Chases are not included - If a selection is Green, it means same distance or less - If a selection is Red, it means the distance is increasing from LTO. The + indicates how many furlongs. - A selection is considered Neutral if it has not ran in the last 100 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 14, 2010 Author Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites 15th April Chelt 2:10 Salden Licht 2:45 Arturo Uno 5:05 Line Freedom 5:45 Desolait Kemp 7:10 Mirror Lad 7:40 Bookiesindex Boy 8:10 Secret Witness Newm 3:00 Able Master 3:35 Markazzi 5:20 Official Style Ripon 2:35 Signore Momento 3:10 Almiqdaad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 15, 2010 Author Share Posted April 15, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites 1st post curse strikes again! No winners, but several in place positions. Tomorrows selections to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 15, 2010 Author Share Posted April 15, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Fri 15th April Selections Ayr 3:25 Charingworth 4:00 Carole's Legacy Cheltenham 5:35 Master of the Hall Kempton 8:00 Free Tussy Newbury 2:10 Bowmaker 2:40 Cheveton * Thirsk 4:15 Hawkeyethenoo * 4:45 Absa Lutte 5:20 Milton of Campsie* Uttoxeter 4:50 It's Brown 6:00 Montiyra 6:35 Oberon Moon **** 7:40 Shammy Buskins * Today, per * denotes at least 100 days since last run. 2yo races are not included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 16, 2010 Author Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Fri 15th April Selections Ayr 3:25 Charingworth 4:00 Carole's Legacy 1st @ 4.74 Cheltenham 5:35 Master of the Hall NR Kempton 8:00 Free Tussy Newbury 2:10 Bowmaker 2:40 Cheveton Thirsk 4:15 Hawkeyethenoo 1st @ 4.73 4:45 Absa Lutte NR 5:20 Milton of Campsie Uttoxeter 4:50 It's Brown 6:00 Montiyra NR 6:35 Oberon Moon NR 7:40 Shammy Buskins 2yo races are not included. Two winners today, not the best of prices! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 16, 2010 Author Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sat 17th April Ayr 3:55 Glingerbank 4:30 Chaninbar 5:35 Kings County Star* Bangor 2:05 Abbvillian* 2:40 Sir Monty*** 4:20 Sagalyrique 4:55 Cool Running Doncaster 5:40 Victoire De Lyphar** Newbury 3:40 Canford Cliffs** Nottingham 5:30 Val C Thirsk 1:55 French Art* 2:25 Mister Jingles* 3:00 Snow Bay 3:35 Oddsmaker 4:10 Breathless Kiss Maiden Stakes are not included Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sat 17th April Ayr 3:55 Glingerbank 4:30 Chaninbar NR 5:35 Kings County Star Bangor 2:05 Abbvillian 3rd 2:40 Sir Monty 3rd 4:20 Sagalyrique 1st @ 5.55 4:55 Cool Running 3rd Doncaster 5:40 Victoire De Lyphar 1st @ 32 Newbury 3:40 Canford Cliffs 2nd Nottingham 5:30 Val C Thirsk 1:55 French Art 3rd 2:25 Mister Jingles 3:00 Snow Bay 1st @ 18.8 3:35 Oddsmaker 4:10 Breathless Kiss Maiden Stakes are not included I hope someone backed the 5:40 - I missed it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Selections 18/4/10 Ascot 3.10 Fin Vin De Leu 4:55 Busker Royale Stratford 4:40 Von Origny 2nd Maidens not included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Monday 19th April selections Hexham 4:00 Newman Des Plages 4:30 Josephine Malines Kempton 4:15 Fahrisee 5:25 Maximix 5:55 Rapid Increase 6:25 Prescelli Plumpton 4:55 Pearly Star 5:30 Another Storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Monday 19th April results Hexham 4:00 Newman Des Plages 4:30 Josephine Malines NR Kempton 4:15 Fahrisee NR 5:25 Maximix 5:55 Rapid Increase 3rd 6:25 Prescelli 2nd Plumpton 4:55 Pearly Star 1st @ 5.00 5:30 Another Storm A winner on the board, although not really good enough! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Tues 20th April selections Brighton 6:10 My Kingdom - 5f 7:10 Penang Cinta - 1m 1f Folkstone 3:00 Tom Folan - 5f 4:05 Benozzo Gozzoli - 1m 7f Kempton 2:20 Craic Attack - 6f Towcester 5:25 Chapel Flowers - 2m 5:55 Zafar - 2m Wolverhampton 5:20 Ghufa - 1m 4f I feel there may be something to look at with race distance and age of horse. Short distance + young age beat older horses on saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Tues 20th April results Brighton 6:10 My Kingdom - 5f 7:10 Penang Cinta - 1m 1f Folkstone 3:00 Tom Folan - 5f 2nd 4:05 Benozzo Gozzoli - 1m 7f Kempton 2:20 Craic Attack - 6f 1st @ 2.74 Towcester 5:25 Chapel Flowers - 2m 5:55 Zafar - 2m Wolverhampton 5:20 Ghufa - 1m 4f 1st @ 8.04 2 wins keep the streak alive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Weds 21st April Catterick 4:15 Park's Prodigy 1m 3f * 5:25 Take my Hand 7f Kempton 7:20 Through the Forest 1m 4f 8:20 Walcot Square 1m ** 9:20 Tubby Isaacs 6f ***** Perth 5:40 Leith Walk 3m Southwell 4:45 Overlaw 2m 4f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 21, 2010 Author Share Posted April 21, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Weds 21st April Catterick 4:15 Park's Prodigy 1m 3f * 2nd 5:25 Take my Hand 7f 1st @ 3.55 Kempton 7:20 Through the Forest 1m 4f 2nd 8:20 Walcot Square 1m ** 9:20 Tubby Isaacs 6f ***** 1st @ 6.40 (was available at 10 an hour before the off. I took sp but should have trusted my instincts about this one as I'd been on this all day) Perth 5:40 Leith Walk 3m Southwell 4:45 Overlaw 2m 4f Onwards and upwards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 21, 2010 Author Share Posted April 21, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thurs 21 April Beverley 2:00 Drumpellier 5f (1 day's rest if runs) 5:15 Tres Froide* 1m 1f Fontwell 2:20 Whistlejacquet 2m 6f 4:30 Count Boris 3m 3f Perth 3:10 Dix Villez 3m 2f Southwell 5:55 Calmdownmate 6f 6:55 Group Leader 1m 4f 7:55 Market Puzzle 1m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 22, 2010 Author Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thurs 21 April Beverley 2:00 Drumpellier 5f (1 day's rest if runs) NR 5:15 Tres Froide* 1m 1f Fontwell 2:20 Whistlejacquet 2m 6f 1st @ 4.10 4:30 Count Boris 3m 3f Perth 3:10 Dix Villez 3m 2f 2nd Southwell 5:55 Calmdownmate 6f 6:55 Group Leader 1m 4f 7:55 Market Puzzle 1m 3rd Promising. The day started off with a win, but tapered off. Market Puzzle ran a great second half to its race, coming from last to finish in the placings. Will keep my eye on its next race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 22, 2010 Author Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Fri 23rd April Chepstow 7:20 Oca De Thaix 3m Newton Abbot 5:25 Hiddensee 2m1f 5:55 Merry Music 2m6f 6:55 Canshebemine 2m1f Perth 3:45 Noble Bay 3m7f 4:15 High Stand Lad 2m4f 4:50 Mr Woods 2m4f Sandown 3:55 Thundering Home 1m2f Wolv 2:30 Moors Goose 7f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 23, 2010 Author Share Posted April 23, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Fri 23rd April Chepstow 7:20 Oca De Thaix 3m Newton Abbot 5:25 Hiddensee 2m1f 2nd (Faded over final furlong) 5:55 Merry Music 2m6f 6:55 Canshebemine 2m1f Perth 3:45 Noble Bay 3m7f 4:15 High Stand Lad 2m4f 4:50 Mr Woods 2m4f Sandown 3:55 Thundering Home 1m2f Wolv 2:30 Moors Goose 7f 3rd No winners. Results call for a tightening of criteria, therefore, in future, selections running over the same distance or less LTO will be green and selections running increased distances will be red. This will only apply to selections that have ran in the last 100 days. Those that have ran after this period will remain in neutral colour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 23, 2010 Author Share Posted April 23, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Ok, 74 selections in total, so far. 11 winners. That's almost 15% strike rate. Plus, I may have missed one or two NRs. Despite the relatively low SR, however, the big priced favourites on Saturday would have ensured a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted April 23, 2010 Share Posted April 23, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites A quick summary: Win bets Days : 9 S/R : 11/72 15% P/L : +22 pts Yield: 31% Place bets Days : 9 S/R : 32/72 44% P/L : +17 pts Yield: 23% Looks very promising Alexander, keep posting them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 23, 2010 Author Share Posted April 23, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sat 24th April Haydock 6:35 Una Pelota 7:05 Netta Leicester 1:55 Rowayton 3:00 Green Lightning 5:15 Tilsworth Glenboy Market Rasen 1:10 Josephine Malines Ripon 2:50 Sir Geoffrey 3:25 Bogside Theatre 5:45 Tactic Sandown 1:00 Twilight Star 3:05 Air Force One 4:15 Tranquil Tiger 4:50 Swift Chap Wolverhampton 7:20 Val C 8:20 Daniella De Bruijn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted April 23, 2010 Share Posted April 23, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Can you make the green color darker? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sat 24th April Haydock 6:35 Una Pelota 7:05 Netta NR Leicester 1:55 Rowayton 2nd 3:00 Green Lightning 5:15 Tilsworth Glenboy Market Rasen 1:10 Josephine Malines Ripon 2:50 Sir Geoffrey 1st @ 12.72 3:25 Bogside Theatre 5:45 Tactic 2nd Sandown 1:00 Twilight Star 3:05 Air Force One 4:15 Tranquil Tiger 4:50 Swift Chap Wolverhampton 7:20 Val C 1st @ 4.3 8:20 Daniella De Bruijn Glad about the greens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sunday 25th April Bath 4:25 Gilt Edge Girl 5:25 Green Velvet Wetherby 2:55 Pistol Basc 4:35 Hazy Oaks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 25, 2010 Author Share Posted April 25, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sunday 25th April Bath 4:25 Gilt Edge Girl 1 @ 8.79 5:25 Green Velvet Wetherby 2:55 Pistol Basc 2nd 4:35 Hazy Oaks It's been a lovely weekend's racing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 25, 2010 Author Share Posted April 25, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Monday 26th April Ffos Las 5:20 Don't Tell Baby 5:50 Flag Flyer 7:00 Coq Hardy Newcastle 2:10 Socceroo 2:40 Dream Lodge 4:10 Quest For Success 4:40 Silken Promise (last ran 95 days ago, so just gets in. 1m3f then, 1m now) Towcester 2:20 Shore Thing 3:20 Spider Boy Windsor 7:40 One Good Emperor Wolverhampton 3:00 Eight Hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 25, 2010 Author Share Posted April 25, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites I've been thinking the potential to miss out on a winning horse when there lots of selections, like the bumper day on the 17th. Victoire De Lyphar had a lay off of over 200 days and would therefore be a neutral selection. I think it might be important to highlight trainer form in these cases. Not sure of the best way to work this, either percentage wise or when a neutral horse wins, that trainer becomes 'unlocked' so to speak. Any suggestions? Snow Bay, incidently, would have been a green selection :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 26, 2010 Author Share Posted April 26, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites OK, Dandy Nicholl's trained Victoire De Lyphar, therefore any neutral selections that are from his yard will be amber for a period that is yet to be decided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 26, 2010 Author Share Posted April 26, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Results Monday 26th April Ffos Las 5:20 Don't Tell Baby NR 5:50 Flag Flyer NR 7:00 Coq Hardy Newcastle 2:10 Socceroo 2:40 Dream Lodge 2nd 4:10 Quest For Success 3rd 4:40 Silken Promise (last ran 95 days ago, so just gets in. 1m3f then, 1m now) Towcester 2:20 Shore Thing 1st @ 5.2 3:20 Spider Boy Windsor 7:40 One Good Emperor Wolverhampton 3:00 Eight Hours Shore Thing does it for the reds. It started as fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 26, 2010 Author Share Posted April 26, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Tues 27th April Lingfield 3:30 Sedgewick 5:00 Mr Skipiton Nottingham 8:05 Oriental Scot Wincanton 3:20 Darn Hot 3:50 Now Listen To Me Yarmouth 3:10 Cookie Galore 4:40 Amno Dancer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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