jayalexander Posted April 26, 2010 Author Share Posted April 26, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites I'm starting to think that there's ample opportunity to lay other selections on this system, so from time to time (depending on the success) I may lay a short priced horse alongside my backing selection. Tuesday I'll go for Scarcity in the 3:10. My reasons; fourth run on turf, whereas Cookie Galore has had 4 decent AW races, with a win, over the same distance. Could replicate that form on turf. LAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 27, 2010 Author Share Posted April 27, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Tues 27th April Lingfield 3:30 Sedgewick 3rd 5:00 Mr Skipiton Nottingham 8:05 Oriental Scot 1st @ 5.6 (W. Jarvis unlocked) Wincanton 3:20 Darn Hot 3:50 Now Listen To Me 2nd Yarmouth 3:10 Cookie Galore 4:40 Amno Dancer The lay selection won the 3:10, although the idea is that it's a low liability risk. Lay results will not be added to the weekly summary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 27, 2010 Author Share Posted April 27, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Weds 28th April Kelso 6:20 Quick Will 7:20 Pontop 7:55 Ocarina (up a furlong) That's the lot!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 28, 2010 Author Share Posted April 28, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Gettin 'em in early today... Selections for Thurs 29th April Brighton 5:30 Sermon's Mount 6:00 Billberry 6:30 Dulce Domum 7:00 Blue Tango 8:00 Wreningham Hereford 2:50 Victory Surge 4:50 No More Whispers +2 Redcar 5:05 Gritstone +1 Greens galore! Alongside the red selections is the number of furlongs that it is stepping up. This will be a red only feature and could prove to be significant in terms of results. Greens and neutrals will remain the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 28, 2010 Author Share Posted April 28, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Weds 28th April Kelso 6:20 Quick Will 1st @ 13.3 7:20 Pontop 2nd 7:55 Ocarina (up a furlong) That's the lot!!! Chi-ching! Pontop was neck and neck after the last; started as fave and hopefully will be the only BF next time out. Onwards we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 28, 2010 Author Share Posted April 28, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thanks for the updates, Dices. That place S/R is crazy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 29, 2010 Author Share Posted April 29, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thurs 29th April results Brighton 5:30 Sermon's Mount 3rd 6:00 Billberry 6:30 Dulce Domum 7:00 Blue Tango 2nd 8:00 Wreningham Hereford 2:50 Victory Surge 2nd 4:50 No More Whispers +2 Redcar 5:05 Gritstone +1 2nd Well, the place s/r is somewhat maintained. Wreningham was 2.66 bfsp fave/1.66 place and therefore backing would not have generated much income. Similar prices to these are worth laying in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 29, 2010 Author Share Posted April 29, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Fri 30th April selections Bangor 6:20 Osric 8:20 Mohayer Doncaster 4:10 The Hermitage 5:15 Layla's Dancer Fontwell 5:40 Space Cowboy 6:40 Mighty Moose +2 7:10 Command Marshall +2 Lingfield 3:50 Sir Frank Wappat 4:25 Abbeyside 4:55 King's Destiny Musselburgh 2:20 Blue Neptune 5:05 Ezdeyaad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 30, 2010 Author Share Posted April 30, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Fri 30th April results Bangor 6:20 Osric 1st @ 1.76 8:20 Mohayer 3rd Doncaster 4:10 The Hermitage 5:15 Layla's Dancer Fontwell 5:40 Space Cowboy 6:40 Mighty Moose +2 2nd 7:10 Command Marshall +2 Lingfield 3:50 Sir Frank Wappat 4:25 Abbeyside 4:55 King's Destiny 1st @ 6.6 (M.A Jarvis unlocked) Musselburgh 2:20 Blue Neptune 5:05 Ezdeyaad 1st @ 5.83 Mighty Moose ran a good race and was beaten on the line. Started as fav and should do nicely if green next run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 30, 2010 Author Share Posted April 30, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Saturday May 1st Doncaster 5:35 Dream of Fortune 7:15 Taste The Victory Hexham 6:55 Pontop Newmarket 1:55 Riggins 3:40 Elnawin 4:50 Anhar Thirsk 3:30 Legal Legacy +1 5:45 Liberty Ship Uttoxeter 3:15 Alazan 4:25 Ogee 5:00 Coach Lane 5:30 Just for Jean +1 Selection notes: Pontop and Coach Lane have had the shortest rest period in their respective races. Unlocked trainers: W. Jarvis, D. Nicholls, M.A Jarvis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 30, 2010 Author Share Posted April 30, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites A bit of analysis since the 'Traffic light' System was introduced: Green - 20 runners, 5 winners = 25%sr Red - 16 runners, 2 winners = 12.5%sr Neutral - 15 runners, 2 winners = 13.4%sr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Non runners are coming in thick and fast and from now on I'm going to take out the NRs as I update throughout the day. I think this will make the collation of results a bit easier. Saturday May 1st Doncaster 5:35 Dream of Fortune Hexham 6:55 Pontop 3rd Newmarket 1:55 Riggins 3rd 3:40 Elnawin 4:50 Anhar Thirsk 3:30 Legal Legacy +1 5:45 Liberty Ship Uttoxeter 5:00 Coach Lane 1st @ 4.4 5:30 Just for Jean +1 Selection notes: Pontop and Coach Lane have had the shortest rest period in their respective races. Unlocked trainers: W. Jarvis, D. Nicholls, M.A Jarvis Riggins nearly took it at the line. Bad day of results! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sunday 2nd May Hamilton 2:30 Fujin Dancer 3:05 William Morgan Newmarket 5:05 Red Fantasy 5:40 September Morn Salisbury 3:30 White Dart Selection notes: Fujin Dancer has had the shortest rest period in the 2:30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2010 Author Share Posted May 3, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sunday 2nd May Hamilton 2:30 Fujin Dancer 1st @ 2.5 3:05 William Morgan Newmarket 5:05 Red Fantasy 2nd 5:40 September Morn Salisbury 3:30 White Dart Selection notes: Fujin Dancer has had the shortest rest period in the 2:30. Not sure if that was the correct sp for Fujin Dancer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2010 Author Share Posted May 3, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Mon 3rd May Beverley 4:50 Sir George Chepstow 2:35 Jezza 4:35 Any Given Moment 5:05 Dimaire 5:35 Magic Omen Kempton 5:30 Perfect Act Warwick 2:40 Lady Lam 4:10 Light Dubai 4:40 Onyx of Arabia Windsor 2:25 Hip Hip Hooray 4:25 King's Song Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2010 Author Share Posted May 3, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Just a reminder that no commission is paid if you place single bets on the multiples market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2010 Author Share Posted May 3, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Results Mon 3rd May Beverley 4:50 Sir George 2nd Chepstow 2:35 Jezza 1st @ 9.53 4:35 Any Given Moment 1st @ 3.35 5:05 Dimaire 5:35 Magic Omen Kempton 5:30 Perfect Act Warwick 2:40 Lady Lam 4:10 Light Dubai 2nd 4:40 Onyx of Arabia Windsor 2:25 Hip Hip Hooray 4:25 King's Song Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2010 Author Share Posted May 3, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Tues 4th May Bath 4:00 Celtic Ransom 5:30 Desert Strike Catterick 7:30 Born To Perform Exeter 7:50 Glacial Call 8:20 Regain Du Charbonneau Fakenham 4:50 Another Storm Newcastle 2:40 Nakoma 4:10 Miami Gator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 4, 2010 Author Share Posted May 4, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Tues 4th May Bath 4:00 Celtic Ransom 2nd 5:30 Desert Strike Catterick 7:30 Born To Perform Exeter 7:50 Glacial Call 1st @ 4.71 8:20 Regain Du Charbonneau Fakenham 4:50 Another Storm 1st @ 3.11 Newcastle 2:40 Nakoma 4:10 Miami Gator Updating complete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 4, 2010 Author Share Posted May 4, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Weds 5th May Chester 2:15 Miss Miracle +3 4:00 Alrasm +2 (less than 100 day's rest but is trained by an unlocked trainer) Huntingdon 7:40 Darn Hot +4 Kelso 4:20 Old Noddy +3 5:25 Maska Pony Southwell 3:30 Sarah's Boy +2 4:45 Sir Pitt +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 5, 2010 Author Share Posted May 5, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites I realise that there are many races with 2 or more beaten favourites cannot qualify under this system, and it may be interesting to look at that. Tomorrow (Thursday), for instance, Almiqdaad runs in the 1:45 at Chester. He is one of three BF and ran 21 days ago. The other two ran over 200 days ago. He is with one of our unlocked trainers, M A Jarvis; who also has the highest %. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 5, 2010 Author Share Posted May 5, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Weds 5th May Chester 2:15 Miss Miracle +3 4:00 Alrasm +2 (less than 100 day's rest but is trained by an unlocked trainer) 1st @ 3.47 Huntingdon 7:40 Darn Hot +4 2nd Kelso 4:20 Old Noddy +3 5:25 Maska Pony 1st @ 6.6 Southwell 3:30 Sarah's Boy +2 3rd 4:45 Sir Pitt +1 1st @ 4.8 Nice day's results! Darn Hot led towards the finish, but blundered at the final fence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 5, 2010 Author Share Posted May 5, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thurs May 6th Chester 5:05 Plush +1 Ffos Las 7:00 Windstar +1 7:30 Effigy 8:05 Basle Goodwood 3:00 Uncle Fred Newton Abbot 3:45 Sebastiano +3 Wetherby 6:15 Lord Collingwood 8:25 Night Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted May 5, 2010 Share Posted May 5, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 5, 2010 Author Share Posted May 5, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thankyou for your update, Dices. The two big winners on the 17th (the day of the 3,000/1 treble!) are the only reason for the large yield and that is showing as it almost halves each week. I was thinking about tightening the criteria if things were starting to look bad, but the final race of today's selection made me think again that there is value to be found. I'll reassess the situation next week. As always, feel free to PM me if anyone has any suggestions for the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 6, 2010 Author Share Posted May 6, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Won't have much time over the next few days but will endeavour to post daily selections, even if results can't be updated until a later date. Fri 7th May Chester 4:30 Abbondonza Hamilton 7:20 Il Portico 7:50 Danderek Lingfield 3:05 Tell Halaf 3:45 Misaro Nottingham 4:45 Punching Ripon 6:55 Discanti +1 7:30 Russian George 8:30 Unawatuna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 6, 2010 Author Share Posted May 6, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Thurs May 6th Chester 5:05 Plush +1 Ffos Las 7:00 Windstar +1 7:30 Effigy 8:05 Basle 1st @ 3.92 Goodwood 3:00 Uncle Fred Newton Abbot 3:45 Sebastiano +3 Wetherby 6:15 Lord Collingwood A dismal day! Basle took it just on the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 7, 2010 Author Share Posted May 7, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Sat 8/5/10 Haydock 2:00 Mia's Boy 3:00 Viking Blonde 4:45 Redford 5:20 Lady Lauchmhar Lingfield 2:10 Reggane 4:55 Cassiano 5:30 Rubenstar Nottingham 2:25 Sworn Tigress +2 4:05 Royal Straight 5:15 We'll Deal Again 5:45 D'artagnans Dream Thirsk 6:05 Lord Fidelio 6:35 Mr Wolf 7:05 Destiny's Dream Warwick 5:15 Bollywood Style Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 7, 2010 Author Share Posted May 7, 2010 Re: Return of the beaten favourites Won't have much time over the next few days but will endeavour to post daily selections, even if results can't be updated until a later date. Fri 7th May Chester 4:30 Abbondonza Hamilton 7:20 Il Portico 2nd 7:50 Danderek 2nd Lingfield 3:05 Tell Halaf 1st @ 3.97 3:45 Misaro Nottingham 4:45 Punching 3rd Ripon 6:55 Discanti +1 1st @ 3.73 7:30 Russian George 8:30 Unawatuna 3rd 6 of 9 placed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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