Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (HTFT Lays [19/-5%])

[lunatism]

16/02/10 (selections: CS)

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS
16/02/10	20:45	English League One	Leeds United v Walsall	Back 2 - 0	7.20

Just the solitary CS selection for today, are Leeds in the mood for a first spot on of the thread?!!

[lunatism]

16/02/10 (selections: HTFT lay)

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS	LIABILITY
16/02/10	20:45	English Championship	Blackpool v Middlesbrough	Lay HH	4.80	£95.54
16/02/10	20:45	English Championship	Bristol City v Leicester City	Lay HH	5.40	£53.85
16/02/10	20:45	English Championship	Cardiff City v West Bromwich Albion	Lay AA	5.10	£151.16
16/02/10	20:45	English Championship	Derby County v Preston North End	Lay HH	4.30	£196.90
16/02/10	20:45	English Championship	Plymouth Argyle v Swansea City	Lay AA	4.00	£100.00
16/02/10	20:45	English Championship	Scunthorpe United v Barnsley	Lay HH	5.20	£25.00
16/02/10	20:45	English League Two	Hereford United v Aldershot Town	Lay HH	5.00	£90.33
16/02/10	20:45	English League Two	Lincoln City v Accrington Stanley	Lay AA	5.10	£109.00

Handful of selections for today, interesting to see how they'll turn out

[Lardonio]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (CS Backs & HTFT Lays) I don't understand your liability on the HTFT market. On the Bristol R game you had a liability of £226.85 yet you only won 0.95? And for the list above, I can't see the connection between odds and liability. Am I missing something?

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (CS Backs & HTFT Lays)

I don't understand your liability on the HTFT market. On the Bristol R game you had a liability of £226.85 yet you only won 0.95? And for the list above, I can't see the connection between odds and liability. Am I missing something?

Good point - the column should read LIQUIDITY. At this stage this is all testing and no real bets are made, but i ALWAYS record liquidity (even for the markets i'm not interested in), so that when analysing the testing process, i can make efficient predictions of much could be lost or won.

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

20/02/10 (selections) Nice handful here, time to turn that yield methinks

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS	LIQUIDITY
20/02/10	16:00	English Premier League	Arsenal v Sunderland (3 - 1)	Lay HH	1.77	£88.00
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Blackpool v Reading (2 - 1)	Lay HH	4.30	£17.00
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Derby County v Swansea City (1 - 1)	Lay HH	5.00	£91.54
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Nottingham Forest v Middlesbrough (2 - 2)	Lay HH	3.75	£54.08
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Peterborough United v Sheffield United (2 - 1)	Lay AA	4.80	£42.23
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Plymouth Argyle v Leicester City (1 - 1)	Lay AA	4.70	£43.12
20/02/10	16:00	Scottish Premier League	Motherwell v Hibernian (1 - 1)	Lay HH	5.00	£27.09
20/02/10	19:00	French Ligue 1	Saint-Étienne v Montpellier (0 - 0)	Lay HH	4.50	£49.21

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (CS Backs & HTFT Lays) ok, easy so far it seems - the Peterborough game is OFF (postponed due to bad weather?), and the only unwrapped up games are the Arsenal and Saint-Etienne games, all the others are already winners, since the halftime results are already in :ok Now for hoping Arsenal blow their lead (but unlikely, as my prediction was 1-1 at HT and 3-1 fulltime. Ah well...can't be greedy :D

[lunatism]

20/02/10 (results)

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS	LIQUIDITY	RESULT	RETURN
20/02/10	16:00	English Premier League	Arsenal v Sunderland (3 - 1)	Lay HH	1.77	£88.00	0	-0.77
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Blackpool v Reading (2 - 1)	Lay HH	4.30	£17.00	1	0.95
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Derby County v Swansea City (1 - 1)	Lay HH	5.00	£91.54	1	0.95
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Nottingham Forest v Middlesbrough (2 - 2)	Lay HH	3.75	£54.08	1	0.95
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Peterborough United v Sheffield United (2 - 1)	Lay AA	4.80	£42.23	P - P	P - P
20/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Plymouth Argyle v Leicester City (1 - 1)	Lay AA	4.70	£43.12	1	0.95
20/02/10	16:00	Scottish Premier League	Motherwell v Hibernian (1 - 1)	Lay HH	5.00	£27.09	1	0.95
20/02/10	19:00	French Ligue 1	Saint-Étienne v Montpellier (0 - 0)	Lay HH	4.50	£49.21	1	0.95

DAY SUMMARY		TOTAL
Selections: 7		Selections: 16
Strike Rate: 86%		Strike Rate: 81%
Total Staked: 7		Total Staked: 16
Total Returned: 4.95		Total Returned: 3.81
Yield: 71%		Yield: 24%

Well, an upturn in fortunes, and guess what - a correct score too (finally), but since i'm not actively monitoring that market and just using it for advice, it's just something to smile about ;) Look at those scores though, they're all so frikkin' close (well, aside from the spot on one, 5 of the 7 were ONE goal out!!!), any ideas about how to push them along in the right way would be greatly appreciated!

[Ludi_the_woodpacker]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (HTFT Lays [16/24%]) Very nice work something very interesting to read in Saturday evening (I saw this thread for the first time today). Correct scores have been something mysterious for all my betting experience. I sit in a pub or something for a beer with some fellows.We all have one of these common free printed programs of weekend soccer events in front of us.Some one mentions a game lets say... Bolton - Sunderland.Another half-drunk guy shouts 'It's 2:2'.There are enough examples of guessed correct scores in such inspired mood. I found you are a nice guy from what I read and think you will not get what I wrote above the wrong way. You do big investigations, analyze them and go with a prediction.In poker ( I am not anything about strong poker player) great players can win lots of tournaments even if they are not so lucky.They can fold if they see that all their experience, psychology and bluffing just can't work - their hand is rubbish.So making luck less important. What I want to say: you know teams are poor attacking helpless in front of the goal.They have very few shots on target and all says 0:0.But there comes a shot far away, there comes wind, there comes a confused defender, corner, surprising header and a sad 1:0.It is all due to bad luck. Bookmakers know that there is very poor value in CS bets.Sometimes they offer odds like 10, 30, 50 and used to see 1.6 lines we are very tempted to try.They bother to make lines for 6 rated outsiders to win 1:5 in order to collect all 'insignificant' euros that we throw in when see 500 odds and say 'If it wins I go to the Moon'.But Moon is far far away... If some pick has real odds around 1.80 bookies offer 1.66 we say: 'no value' for 0,14.If odds are 30 and should be 35 then what?If they are 500 and should be 800 ;) CS is one of bookmakers' weapons against us mate. If you concentrate on Over/Under market you reduce luck importance.I think CS predictions are 99% luck and you investigating hard reduce it to around 90%.Using all these efforts in O/U or something like goals in the game (0-1, 2-3, 4-6, 7+) with big stakes should bring you crazy profit.If you bet on 2:0 and wind makes it 3:0 ? HT/FT is something different.I like it and work on some systems.Odds are fine there especially in X/1 bets in Championship.:) CHEERS :beer

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (HTFT Lays [16/24%])

Very nice work something very interesting to read in Saturday evening (I saw this thread for the first time today)

Glad that you like the thread, hopefully you'll stick around and come up with more input, because that's EXACTLY the kind of response i'm looking for

Correct scores have been something mysterious for all my betting experience

I know - that's exactly why I targeted the market, it's like the holy grail, huh? Plus, it's something different - i've got my own markets that I stick to, but i've decided to open up the windows to other things too...makes life more interesting

It is all due to bad luck

Perhaps, perhaps not - i'm in the process of avoiding matches that have potential to be banana skin games, but there is always another variable that comes into play

CS is one of bookmakers' weapons against us mate

BUT, if we can crack the market, it would be frikkin awesome, and as I said - it's Holy Grail stuff of dreams stuff (for me, i'm sure others do it)

If you concentrate on Over/Under market you reduce luck importance.

That's another of the markets that i should have listed in my introduction for this thread. Correct score predictions affect a whole load of markets, and over time, i'll provide a little more info on the other selections i'm generating. Thanks again for your input!

[lunatism]

21/02/10 (selections)

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS	LIQUIDITY
21/02/10	15:30	German Bundesliga	Freiburg v Hertha BSC (0 - 0)	Lay HH	5.20	£159.78
21/02/10	17:15	English Premier League	Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur (1 - 1)	Lay AA	3.75	£52.11
21/02/10	20:45	Italian Serie A	Bari v Milan (2 - 0)	Lay AA	3.95	£16.55

Couple of tricky looking ties here, hopefully carry over some of the good form from yesterday :)

[lunatism]

21/02/10 (results) tricky indeed!! :unsure

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS	LIQUIDITY	FINAL SCORE	RESULT	RETURN
21/02/10	15:30	German Bundesliga	Freiburg v Hertha BSC (0 - 0)	Lay HH	5.20	£159.78	0 - 3	1	0.95
21/02/10	17:15	English Premier League	Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur (1 - 1)	Lay AA	3.75	£52.11	0 - 2	0	-2.75
21/02/10	20:45	Italian Serie A	Bari v Milan (2 - 0)	Lay AA	3.95	£16.55	0 - 2	0	-2.95

DAY SUMMARY

Selections: 3

Strike Rate: 33%

Total Staked: 3

Total Returned: -4.74

Yield: -158%

TOTAL

Selections: 19

Strike Rate: 74%

Total Staked: 19

Total Returned: -0.94

Yield: -5%

[cmoi14]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (HTFT Lays [19/-5%]) bonne chance !

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism's Super Experimental Series Of Interesting Bets (HTFT Lays [19/-5%])

bonne chance !

appreciated :ok

[lunatism]

27/02/10 (selections) woohoo - more selections, lets see what comes

DATE	TIME	LEAGUE	FIXTURE	SELECTION	ODDS	LIQUIDITY
27/02/10	15:30	German Bundesliga	Borussia M'gladbach v Freiburg (2 - 2)	Lay HH	3.15	£499.19
27/02/10	16:00	English League One	Brighton & Hove Albion v Exeter City (1 - 1)	Lay HH	3.20	£12.00
27/02/10	16:00	English League One	Leyton Orient v Swindon Town (2 - 2)	Lay AA	4.50	£56.84
27/02/10	16:00	English League One	Oldham Athletic v Norwich City (0 - 0)	Lay AA	3.40	£93.66
27/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Barnsley v Blackpool (1 - 1)	Lay HH	4.70	£4.00
27/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Doncaster Rovers v Crystal Palace (1 - 0)	Lay HH	4.10	£143.79
27/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Preston North End v Cardiff City (1 - 2)	Lay AA	5.30	£55.30
27/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Reading v Sheffield Wednesday (1 - 1)	Lay HH	3.25	£42.00
27/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Swansea City v Peterborough United (1 - 0)	Lay HH	2.46	£270.27
27/02/10	16:00	English Championship	Watford v Newcastle United (0 - 0)	Lay AA	3.70	£310.41
27/02/10	16:00	Scottish Premier League	Hibernian v St. Johnstone (2 - 1)	Lay HH	3.60	£38.79
27/02/10	19:00	French Ligue 1	Valenciennes v Saint-Étienne (2 - 1)	Lay HH	4.30	£36.04