Rugby - 6 Nations

[thebambers]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Thanks for the reply wumpking, I will play it safe and go for the straight treble so the winning margins are not an issue. Good luck with your bets

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Italy v England Some good thoughts have been expressed already, one thing to bear in mind is that there has been a virus amongst a few of the players this week! I believe all of the squad have travelled but some may have been weakened by this virus, I know Borthwick was one of those suffering. I believe England will cover the -8 as they have the type of game to frustrate the Italians upfront, also England will rely heavily on the boot of Mr Wilkinson and although I believe that it will be later in the game that their strength will tell. The one area where the Italians will not get beat is in the scrums and they may for a while cause England a lot of problems especially for the new boy Dan Cole. I fancy England to win by 12 points, Paddy Power offer an alternative winning Margin market & 11-20 points is 2/1 which is a nice cover!

[thebambers]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Have had a good read of the posts and have decided on the following selection Wles win, France win and England -8.5 handicap as a treble which pays 1.33 at bet365. Fingers crossed everyone. Don't follow rugby much but will be doing this weekend with money riding on it ;)

[AJ]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations This weeks odds.

Wales	1.22	Draw	40	Scotland	6.2
France	1.58	Draw	28	Ireland	2.92
Italy	11.5	Draw	75	Away	1.1

Reminds me of the Radiohead song, "no alarms and no surprises...." Three favs can be taken at a 2.12 treble. My only slight doubt was France but they did enough in Edinburgh last week to convince me they can see off the Irish. Large stakes job for me.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations

Hey im thinking of having a bet on Wales total points Wales points over 26 @ 2.15 with willhills I think if wales cut out the silly mistakes they did against england they are capable of running up a big score against the scots. What do you guys think? Thanks

Hi shatmyself This bet would have won 3 out of the last 6 times they have played the Scots (or 2 from 3 at home) so potentially offers value: 2009 Wales won 26-13, Murrayfield, Edinburgh 2008 Wales won 30-15, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff 2007 Scotland won 21-9, Murrayfield, Edinburgh 2006 Wales won 28-18, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff 2005 Wales won 46-22, Murrayfield, Edinburgh 2004 Wales won 23-10, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff Wales often are able to rack up a score against them. Even with the roof open, the weather has been kind for running rugby and with Halfpenny back in the side, Wales will also have a pretty reliable kicker to slot the 40+ metre penalties. I'm already on Wales on the handicap with -9 pts and will probably be playing them on the spreads tomorrow to put in a good performance and score a shedful. Good luck with your bets W

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations really hard to find a value on 1X2 bet IMO.Ireland make a large turnover on 2nd half vs Italy and control the game easly (already focus on match in Paris).France realize a great match vs Scotland but Ireland is clearly not same team that Scotland in main action of Rugby throw scrum pen(with O'Gara) and specially in defence.Lot of interogation before match vs Scotland and not many answer given by french team with many mistake specially difficulty to conclude their action when they are at 5m try line and problem to open their game with their back line specially in 2nd half.More experience in Irish team specially in 9-10 ,not a real scorer in french team Parra is not a scorer with Clermont (almost all time James kick). Drop goal score in this match @ 2 ladbrokes 5/10 Ireland to score 17 or more @ 1.91 sportingbet 5/10 Ireland -3 @ 3.50 paddypower 2/10 Big pressure on french team here expect an answer of them and Irish coming without pressure.. .Prepare easlly this match with 1st round vs Italy astrong match expected and even if Irish pplay away i see experience make the difference in this match

[AJ]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations

This weeks odds.

Wales	1.22	Draw	40	Scotland	6.2
France	1.58	Draw	28	Ireland	2.92
Italy	11.5	Draw	75	Away	1.1

Reminds me of the Radiohead song, "no alarms and no surprises...." Three favs can be taken at a 2.12 treble. My only slight doubt was France but they did enough in Edinburgh last week to convince me they can see off the Irish. Large stakes job for me.

Hard work done, only question is do i lay off England to lock in 90% of profit ?

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations

Hard work done' date=' only question is do i lay off England to lock in 90% of profit ?[/quote'] I'm on the same treble and after thinking the bet was down in the first leg I am letting this ride. Even if the heavens open in Rome tomorrow, I still feel England are just going to be too strong for a weakened Italian side. Previous results between the two sides also suggest an English win: 2009: England won 36-11 at Twickenham 2008: England won 23-19 in Rome 2007: England won 20-7 at Twickenham 2006: England won 31-16 in Rome 2005: England won 39-7 at Twickenham 2004: England won 50-9 in Rome 2003: England won 40-5 at Twickenham 2002: England won 45-9 in Rome 2001: England won 80-23 at Twickenham 2000: England won 59-12 in Rome I'm also on the Tipster from Planet Rugby's 'hail mary' accumulator of Wales, France, Crusaders, Stormers, Gloucester, Saracens, England and Leicester. Don't normally back these type of accies but was attracted to this one. Pays just over 6/1. With 6 from 6 so far, I hoping that England and Leicester bring home the bacon tomorrow.

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations

really hard to find a value on 1X2 bet IMO.Ireland make a large turnover on 2nd half vs Italy and control the game easly (already focus on match in Paris).France realize a great match vs Scotland but Ireland is clearly not same team that Scotland in main action of Rugby throw scrum pen(with O'Gara) and specially in defence.Lot of interogation before match vs Scotland and not many answer given by french team with many mistake specially difficulty to conclude their action when they are at 5m try line and problem to open their game with their back line specially in 2nd half.More experience in Irish team specially in 9-10 ,not a real scorer in french team Parra is not a scorer with Clermont (almost all time James kick). Drop goal score in this match @ 2 ladbrokes 5/10 Ireland to score 17 or more @ 1.91 sportingbet 5/10 Ireland -3 @ 3.50 paddypower 2/10 Big pressure on french team here expect an answer of them and Irish coming without pressure.. .Prepare easlly this match with 1st round vs Italy astrong match expected and even if Irish pplay away i see experience make the difference in this match

analyze totally wrong on this match :$ only drop goal saveme some unit but finally -2 loose.What a match of my team yesterday :loon specially in defence.Long time i don't see Ireland and O'Gara in this situation totally out of match unable to have offensive animation and to score some point.Insist on fact that 9-10 french were not enough experimented for this match but forced to admit that Parra & Trhin Duc take a large part of France win . Last match of this tournement :France - England will make the decision in this 6 Nation IMO

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Italt v England Just spotted the Man Of the Match odds (P.Power) and I think there are a couple of nice looking bets. Danny Care @ 10/1 - If it wasn't for a coupleof poor passes last week I thought Danny Care had a good game and I think his style of play could help England today, especially late on in the game when it begins to open up a bit more and hopefully when the Italians start giving away penalties :hope. Also Dylan Hartley is beginning to show us more of his true potential and he looks a good bet @ 20/1. He is a good ball carrier, he isn't afraid of getting involved and he is also learning to tame his temper! I can't remember which Autumn international (Argentina I think?) but Dylan was responsible for half the total metres gained by the English forwards. A couple of small bets to make things interesting!

[citizen frank]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations how is it england are 1/14 on.but if you back england to win by 1-12 points you get 15/8 or by 13+ 8/13 is it better to back them options.

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations once again i will not be on favorit here last week Italy manage to stay in handicap vs Ireland and show some good things specially in scrum.Clearly the worst team of this 6 Nation but still a difficult team to play specially when they play at home .Year after year Italian Rugby progress and since 2-3 year conceded less trash score but got always problem to play 80min.England fly to Italy for come back with a win ,got nothing to proove in this match and are more focus on match at home vs Ireland.Got many difficulty last year vs this team and in a cold weather think that this game will not be easy for England. Italy HT / England FT @ 10 sportingbet 3/10 Italy +7 HT @ 2 stanjames 4/10 England by 1-12 @ 2.88 stanjames 4/10

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Wilkinson 40th min penalty :@:@:@

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Unlucky marseille with that HT / FT bet. The Italy +7 HT was a great call though

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations yesterday totally off today is better :cow little win of England 17-12.England team in training mode clearly ...

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Following the weekend's 6 nation results, updated IRB ratings for the next round of matches as follows:

Date	Tournie	Home	Away	Home IRB Rating	Away IRB Rating
26/02/2010	6 Nations	Wales	France	79.63	84.40
27/02/2010	6 Nations	Italy	Scotland	72.17	75.51
27/02/2010	6 Nations	England	Ireland	81.77	83.33

According to the IRB ratings, France should win by 4 points, Scotland should win by 1 point and England should win by 3 points Currently, the handicap on France ranges from -4 / -5, on Scotland ranges from -2 / -4 and on England ranges from 0 / -2. I've put up a small bet on the draw on Betfair for the Italy v Scotland game @ 32.0 (you can currently get 26.0) as this may offer a bit of value if matched

[thegreatdom]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Hi guys have gone for the french toscore first try tonight and have gone with jauzion and harinordiquay i think they will be to strong for the welsh who only just scrapped through last time out against the scots.

[SteveO]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations I fear the Welsh will be battered tonight. Ourt front 5 won't be able to live with the French and if we keep kicking the ball to them we won't stand a chance. France should cover the -6 handicap that's available but with the French you just don't knio.

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations very hard to find a good pick on match of tonight .France is favorit and odd is too bad to be trying.Note that Wales got lot of key player missing specially in front line and vs the best scrum of this tournement will clearly sufer .Could accumulate a lot of foul and could coast them a yellow card. 1 or more card in match @ 2.25 ladbrokes 7/10 Will try a winning margin with small stake due to the fact that with many player missing and not a strong bench Wales will nto resist 80 min here.French got lot injury but got quality reserv of player and think will make the difference tonight. France by 11-20 @4 ladbrokes 4/10 Preview and team : http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,9989_5982032,00.html

[homercleese]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations long time reader folks, first time poster. i tend to do well on the rugby- mine for the weekend- ok gents, rbj’s punt of the week at 25/1 in total france, italy and ireland all to win by 1-12 points comes out at 25/1 (under ‘the dozen winning margings’ on williamhill.) get on it! its grrrreat value 6/4, 7/4 and 9/4 respectively

[Otter4]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Parra over 11.5 points @ 1.87 Betfair - 2 points Similiar thinking to Marseille; with Wales' weakened pack I think they may be vulnerable to giving away a few penalties which I'm sure Parra is capable of exploiting. He has also shown that he is quite capable of taking a drop goal if required (even if the match is already won) to keep the scoreboard ticking over. 2 penalties and 2 conversions would cover this bet and I like the odds offered taking France's flair and try scoring form and Wales leaky defence so far. Wales v France Match points +39.5 points @ 1.8 BF - 2 points As mentioned above both teams have a potent attacking threat especially France. Both teams have a decent kicker and are capable of scoring tries with some great finishers on show tonight. I think there will be a few penalties awarded especially in the scrum and you wouldnlt rule out drop goals. All in all I think the points line is a little low and would have taken on 42.5 points so am happy to go 39.5. :hope

[ELCAKER]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations What a game in prospect!! This is a must see - packed Millennium Stadium ,a a fired up Welsh side roared on by a passionate home crowd. France understandably favourites, which means a watching brief for me. I think Wales are never out of it and not afraid of coming from behind. I want to see if they can compete with the French up front, if they do, then I'll be praying the French score first before laying them - preferably a try :-) I know this is optimistic but I think it offers great value and allows me to save a few quid/a bet if the French are dominating up front from the off....Cant wait, just hope the little one gets off to sleep in good time!

[Otter4]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations

Parra over 11.5 points @ 1.87 Betfair - 2 points Similiar thinking to Marseille; with Wales' weakened pack I think they may be vulnerable to giving away a few penalties which I'm sure Parra is capable of exploiting. He has also shown that he is quite capable of taking a drop goal if required (even if the match is already won) to keep the scoreboard ticking over. 2 penalties and 2 conversions would cover this bet and I like the odds offered taking France's flair and try scoring form and Wales leaky defence so far. Wales v France Match points +39.5 points @ 1.8 BF - 2 points As mentioned above both teams have a potent attacking threat especially France. Both teams have a decent kicker and are capable of scoring tries with some great finishers on show tonight. I think there will be a few penalties awarded especially in the scrum and you wouldnlt rule out drop goals. All in all I think the points line is a little low and would have taken on 42.5 points so am happy to go 39.5. :hope

:nanaboth bets winners! Was a bit concerned when Parra got sin binned!

[Otter4]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations 2 bets for today England v Ireland game. Tommy Bowe - anytime try scorer @4.5 Betfair - 2 points He has had a quiet 6 nations so far, but I think today will see him come good. He has a potent strike rate, will look to come off his wing to get involved in open play. I think that this will be a good game of rugby with hopefully less kicking with O'Gara dropped - all in all today for Tommy try time. Match points - over 38.5 points @ evens - BF - 3 points I feel that both teams will keep the ball in hand more than in their last matches and with the players on show there is bound to be tries. Sexton and Wilkinson are superb kickers (italy was a blip! :hope) and will kep the scoreboards ticking over. Like yesterdays match, I was expecting 42 / 43 pints to be the handicap line and am happy to have a good bet at evens.

[marseille]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations little word on game England - Ireland.Really see home team take advantage in this match.England not show a good rugby vs Italy but this team is always here when big match coming .Not many change in the teamand Wilko got something to proove today after the poor match vs Italy.Concerning Ireland team O'Gara will start on bench with Flannery suspended and Kidney injury still big miss for Irish ,goodnews could be the come back in 2nd line of Munster player O'Callaghan .ireland show their limit at France 2 week ago and England with 2 win in 2 match want to play the final in Stade de France for me odd at 2 or more on England is value. England win @ 2.05 boylesport 8/10 edit : Ireland HT / England FT @ 7.50 sportingbet 2/10 stay an option too in an expected close match . 2 card or more @ 3 ladbrokes 4/10 for same reason. England by 11-20 @ 6 3/10 ladbrokes because i expect a wake up of England . Gl & good match ;)

[SteveO]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations

long time reader folks, first time poster. i tend to do well on the rugby- mine for the weekend- ok gents, rbj’s punt of the week at 25/1 in total france, italy and ireland all to win by 1-12 points comes out at 25/1 (under ‘the dozen winning margings’ on williamhill.) get on it! its grrrreat value 6/4, 7/4 and 9/4 respectively

You got a sweat on now son:hope for you!

[homercleese]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations :cheers

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations Updated IRB ratings for the weekend's 6 Nations matches:

Date	Tournie	Home	Away	Home IRB Rating	Away IRB Rating
13/03/2010	6 Nations	Ireland	Wales	84.47	78.81
13/03/2010	6 Nations	Scotland	England	74.48	80.62
14/03/2010	6 Nations	France	Italy	85.22	73.20

Based on the ratings, Ireland should beat Wales by 19 points, England should beat Scotland by 7 points and France should beat Italy by 33 points Currently you can back on the handicaps Ireland with -8, England with -4 and France with -23 all at evens. Bet for me therefore is: £25 treble on Ireland (-8), England (-4) France (-23) @ 8.0 with Bet365

[homercleese]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations hi wumpkin. have those tables actually churned out a winner for you this championship? just wondering. i gotta say im bullish on ireland's chances tomorrow, but they wont hammer wales.id go against every one of those youve quoted. id say scotland will pip england to be heonest, and france wont go mental agin italy. theyll take it weasy, like all the french do when favourites....then again, aside from Andreu, this looks a top strength team, so it wouldnt surprise me.Though I am LOATHE to bet on them with that big a start to beat. ill have a ponder and post later (for what its worth) but i reckon ill steer well clear of this game.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby - 6 Nations agree Homer. Ireland are false favourites in my opinion. HT/FT Ireland/Wales 10/1 looks more interesting to me.