Tennis - 1-7 February

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

It's terrible how players get away with this. Match-fixing at it's finest. Korolev threw his match yesterday with Dodig I think, same with Bozoljac today. Small stakes and more research needed this week, it's very dangerous for betting.

Definetly not the tournament for high stakes, unless you know the winner. ;) Just to make things clear i hate stories about fixing, and generally conspiracy theories in betting but "strange" results are not rare on ATP Zagreb. I remember when some guy in my local shop, supersport, staked 10000 kuna(1200 GBP) on Čilić against ANdreev(@4,50 i think, it was few years ago), crossed the street and probably did the same in other shop(Prva Sportska). Of course, Čilić won 2-1. Local newspapers published the story about big ammount staked on Andreev in several bookies across the Croatia and Bosnia, but ATP never investigated it. Who can prove that Bozoljac intenionally returned ball directly on Jelenić's racquet? Players know that they can't be touched and they are using it. Especially those who play challengers, who are far from top 200 or even top 100. EDIT: Forgot to write about Dodig beating Andreev 61 64, Veić won against Canas, and Karlović lost to Stakhovsky in also very strange match. And all that happened in 2009. Andreev-Čilić match was played in 2006.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Utter garbage. Kubot's getting spanked. Big mistake by me' date=' should've realised that Kubot's playing doubles with Marach here. This singles match will be just to let him get used to clay before he goes on to the doubles, which is far more important to him. Bollocks, fcuking bollocks. My bad, and apologies to anyone who took this :$[/quote'] Would you believe it, Kubot stages a remarkable comeback and wins it in the final set. Unbelievable. I'll take that piece of luck, and if for some reason Lukasz reads this, I apologise for doubting you. Cracking comeback!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Good call on Kubot, Atko. Honestly, I've not seen Kubot on dirt at all, think he grew up playing on the surface though and likes it. Dolgopolov lost and Tipsarevic is in the process of losing...so 2-2 for the week so far for me. Profit after Koellerer's win at a nice price....I'm tempted to leave it for the week now. Lot of dodgy stuff going on so far....unless I see something which really jumps out at me. GL!

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Chela - Monaco
Selection	Monaco -1.5 Sets (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.91 (Back)
Reasoning	Chela and Monaco had their fair share of battles in past years with Monaco leading 4-3.Based on that it looks we are in another dog fight but in reality things are different.I"ve watched both of their matches yesterday and level of play they showed is totally opposit.Monaco had pretty much routine victory over fading Massu and showed his usual consistency and looked sharp in all departments.On other hand Chela looked totally out of sorts against unexperienced wild card.His movement was bad,he posted only 43% of first serve clearly struggling to find any sort of rhythm with his game.Monaco always had clear advantage in movement and consisteny,but now he serves better and looks sharper when goes in attack.So when you look this matchup in terms of quality,form and confidence Monaco should have no problems so he is my choice.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Better day yesterday with Kubot coming back to win over Zeballos. Very wary of the shocks this week (legit or otherwise) so stakes should be kept low unless it's two well-known players in competition. Johannesburg - Bjorn Phau vs Rajeev Ram: Ram at 2.00 I'm surprised to see Phau as the slight favourite here. These two have never met before but Phau, who played yesterday, can be a very erratic player. Yesterday, Fritz Wolmarans had numerous chances to break the German and I'm pretty sure a better player would've punished Phau. He does have some decent groundstrokes but he's nowhere near the player he once was. Ram can be a little hit-and-miss too but he has a big, consistent serve and has won a title on a hard court before. Ideally, he'd want it a bit faster than the plexicushion here but he'll be confident after taking out home favourite Rik de Voest on Monday. He has an extra day's rest over Phau and I think the no.5 seed is worth a play. Bet strength: 4pts Zagreb - Illya Marchenko vs Ivan Dodig: Dodig at 2.00 Both players recorded good wins over higher-ranked opponents but it was Dodig's that stood out the most. I have no idea whether it was a fixed match against Korolev (the Dodig price got smashed) but regardless, the Croat loves this tournament, having beaten Igor Andreev here last year. He's up against a lesser player in Marchenko but I'm sure his confidence and desire will be high. Both players have posted similar results recently and I expect it to be tight. There will be a decent Croatian crowd here today - Cilic and Ljubicic are in action - and they'll get behind Dodig. Small stakes, but I reckon the Croat will prevail here. Bet strength: 2pts Nothing else really stands out for me today. Odds for a lot of Santiago matches aren't up yet, so I may post back later with some clay picks. I'd reiterate what uptheirons has said, these tournaments, either by hook or by crook, throw up strange results, so stakes should be kept low (Zagreb in particular). Good luck, Atko

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Monaco x Bellucci Double @ 1.73 Monaco vs Chela....clear difference in their levels right now. Chela is a fading player, nowhere near the level he used to be. Monaco came through in straights against Massu, could have been a tough match with Massu being home player. Should take this. Bellucci vs Capdeville....Capdeville is a level below Bellucci here. Bellucci leads h2h 3-0, all on clay. Improving player in all surfaces, came through in 3 against Lapentti. Always gonna be a tough match with Lapentti being a scrapper. Capdeville has nothing going for him here I think. Horrible form recently, taken all the way yesterday by a guy inside the top 400. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Not sure about this one... Marchenko to beat Dodig......don't rate Dodig at all but anything can happen in Zagreb. Marchenko has been doing pretty well recently, I think Korolev threw his match with Dodig the other day. Might watch this and bet in-play to see if anything dodgy happening. And will take this........ Riba to beat Souza @ 8/11 Worth fading Souza here I think. Has played alot of matches in the last few days....beat Junqueira, Cipolla and Garcia to qualify....and struggled alot against Greul yesterday. Greul choked the match really, had alot of chances. Souza was hurting during the match too. Opportunity here then. Riba comfortably beat Ventura yesterday. I actually think Souza has as much talent as Riba and can climb the rankings possibly this year, but this match could be step too far.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Monaco x Bellucci Double @ 1.73 Monaco vs Chela....clear difference in their levels right now. Chela is a fading player, nowhere near the level he used to be. Monaco came through in straights against Massu, could have been a tough match with Massu being home player. Should take this. Bellucci vs Capdeville....Capdeville is a level below Bellucci here. Bellucci leads h2h 3-0, all on clay. Improving player in all surfaces, came through in 3 against Lapentti. Always gonna be a tough match with Lapentti being a scrapper. Capdeville has nothing going for him here I think. Horrible form recently, taken all the way yesterday by a guy inside the top 400. GL!

Really like that double IAmGooner, but I'm only getting 1.63 with Boyles, my tennis bookie :cry Can't be taking a double at such short odds, goes against my rules. Should come up though, good luck :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Better day yesterday with Kubot coming back to win over Zeballos. Very wary of the shocks this week (legit or otherwise) so stakes should be kept low unless it's two well-known players in competition. Johannesburg - Bjorn Phau vs Rajeev Ram: Ram at 2.00 I'm surprised to see Phau as the slight favourite here. These two have never met before but Phau, who played yesterday, can be a very erratic player. Yesterday, Fritz Wolmarans had numerous chances to break the German and I'm pretty sure a better player would've punished Phau. He does have some decent groundstrokes but he's nowhere near the player he once was. Ram can be a little hit-and-miss too but he has a big, consistent serve and has won a title on a hard court before. Ideally, he'd want it a bit faster than the plexicushion here but he'll be confident after taking out home favourite Rik de Voest on Monday. He has an extra day's rest over Phau and I think the no.5 seed is worth a play. Bet strength: 4pts Zagreb - Illya Marchenko vs Ivan Dodig: Dodig at 2.00 Both players recorded good wins over higher-ranked opponents but it was Dodig's that stood out the most. I have no idea whether it was a fixed match against Korolev (the Dodig price got smashed) but regardless, the Croat loves this tournament, having beaten Igor Andreev here last year. He's up against a lesser player in Marchenko but I'm sure his confidence and desire will be high. Both players have posted similar results recently and I expect it to be tight. There will be a decent Croatian crowd here today - Cilic and Ljubicic are in action - and they'll get behind Dodig. Small stakes, but I reckon the Croat will prevail here. Bet strength: 2pts Nothing else really stands out for me today. Odds for a lot of Santiago matches aren't up yet, so I may post back later with some clay picks. I'd reiterate what uptheirons has said, these tournaments, either by hook or by crook, throw up strange results, so stakes should be kept low (Zagreb in particular). Good luck, Atko

Ram wins in two tie-breaks, while Dodig loses in straight sets. Thankfully, the Dodig bet was the smaller of the two. IAmGooner, I hope you took Marchenko. Either way, a 2.4pt profit for the day's play so far.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Juan Monaco (Santiago, vs Chela) x Peter Luczak (Santiago, vs Marrero): Double at 2.00 I think the merits of Juan Monaco have been discussed here already, but I'll add my tuppence worth. He's a very solid player, especially on clay, and he's playing an ageing Chela who can't last with the best in terms of physicality and stamina. Monaco leads the H2Hs 3-2, although the pair haven't met since 2007. As for Luczak, he's been playing well recently on hard courts but prefers clay. He defeated Potito Starace well - who is a better player than David Marrero - and is more used to playing against better opposition. This is a step down in class and the Spaniard struggled in R1 with a relatively unknown player. Hard to see past Luczak. Bet strength: 3pts

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Souza - Riba
Selection	Riba
Strength	10/10
Date	03/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.77 (Back)
Reasoning	Souza barely scraped through yesterday as Greul served for match and won 10 more points in total. But today his tank should be pretty much empty as this is his five match in five days and he spent almost ten hours on court already. His opponent had easy win yesterday and should be much fresher and if match goes the full distance really should have the upper hand.Both are typical clay courters,Souza has better serve and is more powerfull from this two while Riba relies on consistency and good movement.Riba will have clear advantage in longer rallies and anyway has more quality and experience than his opponent so this is nice spot to make it count.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Yeah Atko has a little nibble on Marchenko...he went to 23/20 in the first set. Staying away from Zagreb as much as I can though........:lol Taking Gonzo to win the clay event in Chile though.... Gonzalez to win Movistar Open @ 10/11 Gonzalez looks motivated to me, has an exceptional record in his home country aswell. Has won the even numerous times before, the location has changed this year but little difference for Gonzo it seems...dismantled Hernandez yesterday. His draw is OK aswell....Hidalgo in the next round could be tricky, he's come through 4 matches here comfortably already. Kubot or Granollers in a possible 1/4 final....Bellucci in the semi. Gonzalez is a class above all of these players and has a winning record against the ones he's played previously. Monaco looks likely from the other half...Gonzalez leads 6-0 h2h. He's a worthy favourite here and I think he wins it out. Monaco E/W to win Movistar Open @ 10/3 (1/3 ODDS, PLACED 1 OR 2) Worth going with Monaco aswell here I think. Chela in the next round....cannot see Chela beating Monaco in his good form. Alot of other solid clay-courters floating around his half like Martin, Riba but Monaco can get through this half I think. GL!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Riba to beat Souza @ 8/11 Worth fading Souza here I think. Has played alot of matches in the last few days....beat Junqueira, Cipolla and Garcia to qualify....and struggled alot against Greul yesterday. Greul choked the match really, had alot of chances. Souza was hurting during the match too. Opportunity here then. Riba comfortably beat Ventura yesterday. I actually think Souza has as much talent as Riba and can climb the rankings possibly this year, but this match could be step too far.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Souza - Riba
Selection	Riba
Strength	10/10
Date	03/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.77 (Back)
Reasoning	Souza barely scraped through yesterday as Greul served for match and won 10 more points in total. But today his tank should be pretty much empty as this is his five match in five days and he spent almost ten hours on court already. His opponent had easy win yesterday and should be much fresher and if match goes the full distance really should have the upper hand.Both are typical clay courters,Souza has better serve and is more powerfull from this two while Riba relies on consistency and good movement.Riba will have clear advantage in longer rallies and anyway has more quality and experience than his opponent so this is nice spot to make it count.

Right chaps, you both seem keen on this so I'm going to follow you both with 3pts on Riba at 1.67 - let's hope he can do the business :hope

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Mikhail Kukushkin (+3,5) - Viktor Troicki
Selection	1 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Kukushkin is slowly making progress and i believe soon we'll see him in top 100. He defeated Zverev yesterday in two sets, and according to reports he played very good. Last week he defeated Ančić in Heilbronn, and Ančić said very nice words about him. He described his serves as not to fast, but very good placed. Troicki is one of the most inconsistent players on tour IMO. He definetly has the talent, but mentally he's to fragile to take advantage of that. Yesterday we saw two serbian players getting eliminated by obviously weaker players, and i believe it's not coincidence. Yesterday some fan was constantly insulting Bozoljac, and generally, Serbian players are under pressure when playing in Zagreb. That might also bother Troicki.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Hi guys, One pick for the Zagreb tournament second round tomorrow: BECKER TO D PETZSCHNER @ 1.8 on betfred Petzschner has a good serve useful on a quick indoor surface but the rest of his game is really a level below Becker's. Becker has a very good return of serve to be able to start rallies with Petzschner and he has more variety and consistency to win most of those baseline rallies.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Should have stayed away Atko, Riba not doing the business...:@

[Poetik]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Klaasen-Lu
Selection	Klaasen to win
Strength	10/10
Date	04/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 3.50 (Back)
Reasoning	I see big value in this odds, bookies make big mistake! Chances to win in my opinion are 50-50. No way, I must take it with full stakes! First round: Klaasen won 2-0 against Guez - player on the Lu level, in this moment propably better. Lu won 2-0 against Nieminen - Nieminen in last time have many problems with injures etc. Not take serious this tournament, one day before match not want play, in last moment go to match! Serve in first round: Klaasen have 65% first serve in, Lu only 55%. Klaasen won 75% first serves, Lu won 75%. Klaasen won 68% on second serve, Lu only 41%!!! On the return Klaasen not look bad against Guez - 53% won on second serve. Lu have good stats on the return after match against Nieminen, but this player not have power in serve. Klaasen play at home - supporters give big power for this player. Klaasen can go to next round, I believe it!

[Poetik]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Acasuso - Schwank
Selection	Acasuso to win
Strength	10/10
Date	04/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 1.73 (Back)
Reasoning	In my opinion Acasuso win this match without too many problems, odds look good - I take it with full stakes! Acasuso have 49 position in ATP rank, in this tournament play with NR6. Acasuso is very motivated in this tournament, Jose love play in South America - in last year play in 4 tournaments - 3 SF and 1 Final. Lost with TOP players - Monfils, F.Gonzalez and 2 times Robredo. In first round destroy young Podlipnik-Castillo 6:1, 6:1 - show incredible serve, won 85% points on serve. Return like serve work great. Schwank is 79 in ATP rank. Schwank in my opinion is very tired, in last month play 10 matches in 2 countries(first 04.01 in Brazil, last 31.01 in Ecuador), after this tournament go to Chile and in first round play 3h10min against Lorenzi! Second serve look very bad, only 42% points won. Schwank have big lucky in this match because lost first set and in second play tie-break. In 2009 Acasuso won on Clay against Schwank 6-4, 6-3!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Not much appealling to me today. I agree with Poetik about Jose Acasuso, but the price is becoming a little too short for me now. He should beat Eduardo Schwank, but then he's on serious form this year on the clay, having won one tournament and making the final of another. Maybe fatigue will get the better of him, but I think the odds are still a bit skinny on him. I considered Benny Becker to beat Philipp Petzscher. I think Petzschner is the more talented player but he's out of form. Couldn't really take one either way. Tough day to pick something in my opinion.

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Monfils - Quanna
Selection	Quanna + 5.5 Games
Strength	10/10
Date	04/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 1.71 (Back)
Reasoning	Quanna is a powerfull,attacking player with excellent serve as main weapon.He also posses usefull forehand and has nice hands around the net. His weakness are backhand side and movement. He has potential to be higher ranked but needs more consistency in part of the game were his strenght lies.He produces his best tennis indoors so fast conditions here really suit his game.In first round he was very impressive especially behind first delivery winning 100% of points. In next round he plays top seed and compratiot Gael Monfils.Monfils can match him on serve and power,but the rest of his game is based around strong defence and occansional change of pace. He enjoyes long exchanges where he gradually force errors from his opponents.But he struggles against strong servers who are keen to come to net,with loses to Isner,Karlovic,Stepanek and barely beating Dent in tight match,as they tend to take time and rhythm away from him.I except very close match here,which revolves around serve with no to many long rallies,so Quanna should have his chances,as he presents matchup with which Gael had difficulties in past already.

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Berrer - Jelenic
Selection	Under 21.5
Strength	10/10
Date	04/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 1.78 (Back)
Reasoning	Berrer is playing some excellent tennis this year . He won Heilbronn last week and continued here with strong performance against talented Tipsarevic in first round.His game is based around powerfull serve and strong forehand,he is at his best indoors where he can set volleys and finish points quickly.His next opponent Jelenic is totally unexperinced player at this level,who passed first round but recieved treatments for cramps in middle of second set.Other than that he didnt show to much and was worse player,but Bozoljac really choked badly.Sparingly he produced with his serve and forehand,but his backhand and return are of low quality and today he will have to cope with tough leftie in Berer.Berer has experience,form and quality on his side and this should really be one sided affair.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Taking Berrer to beat Jelenic in straights... Berrer to win 2-0 @ 8/15 See no problems for Berrer here. Won challenger event last week, beat Tipsarevic very convincingly in the last round here. Good game for Indoor HC, strong serve, good groundies/ Jelenic should be out I think but Bozoljac imploded and gifted an injured man the match. Confident Berrer wins, hopefully in straights.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Agree with many of the bets above..... ...thinking about Acasuso over Schwank. Can't see Acasuso losing this one really. Schwank is playing well but opponent is class above. Also Acasuso likes this stretch of the year on clay, like Schwank he plays well in Chile. Klaasen is a tasty price versus Lu. Couldn't back Lu at such short odds. Can see Klaasen keeping it tight on his serve but maybe Lu wins a tight match. See later on.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Yeah have to take a small punt on Acasuso, price getting lower and I won't take it later if it shortens anymore.... Acasuso to beat Schwank @ 4/6 Schwanks struggle against Lorenzi possibly signs of tiredness. Acasuso is a class bove I think, form has been worrying but this is clay and he typically does well this time of year.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Robert - Brown
Selection	Brown 2.06 @ bwin
Strength	10/10
Date	05/02/2010
Reasoning	Brown has been serving well this week and impressed by defeating Chiudinelli in first match so I think he has a good chance to progress one more match. The odds are wrong as Robert have not been better then Brown so far. What I can see Brown has a lack of experience on higher level and so does Robert. Both have played only a few matches so this is like a challenger level match where probably the younger player Brown has more to give. Brown overcame one french player and can do another. I really dont understand the odds because Brown is more of favourite to me and he should win so the price on him is great. At the Heilbronn challenger Brown faced Berrer ranked at this tournament 66 and later winner of the tournament. A good performance of Dustin. So far he had not often the opportunity to compete with top 100 players. In first round he faced Bozoljac and impressed in that match to. Round 2: Michael Berrer (GER) - Dustin Brown (JAM) 6:4 7:5 Round 1: Dustin Brown (JAM) - Ilija Bozoljac (SRB) 6:4 7:6(7) Brown looks to have a dangerous form.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February Double: Acacuso, Brown 3.14 @ bwin

[Poetik]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Monfils-Ouanna
Selection	Over 19.5
Strength	10/10
Date	04/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betway @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning	For me over is very good option for this match, this is very propably result. Monfils is better player, off course, but I dont see easy match for this player. Monfils and Ouanna are friends - in my opinion both want show good tennis, maybe play 3 sets? Ouanna have incredible serve in last time, in previous round won 100% balls after first serve, 55% first serve balls in. Monfils not have fantastic return, propably today have problems with Ouanna serve. Monfils sometimes make very stupid mistakes, Ouanna is be able to take chances ;) Ouanna in last time is in good form - in my opinion in this match take many serve games. If lose this match - result lik 7-5, 6-2 or 6-4, 6-4 ;)

[Ka4by]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February is the brown mtch wrth £100 on him?? Or is it to close to call??

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Michael Berrer v Viktor Troicki
Selection	Troicki 2-0 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	05/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.61 (Back)
Reasoning	There are no doubts about Michael Berrer's good form at the moment but he is just too overrated at the moment as he is rated so closed against Viktor Troicki, a player just from another class level. Troicki didn't showed any downs here at Zagreb, on the contrary he has proved some good consistency. In this one there is not too much to say about Troicki as there is all about Berrer's overestimated form. The german man did showed a good form indeed, but he didn't proved anything special and I'm sure it won't happen in the future too as he purely lacks the quality. This is a great moment to go with Troicki who has real chances to win here the title, a player who can compete against top 10 as he possess a lot of talent. The serbian has all the advantages here as he is just the better player from so many points of view than Berrer who has got nothing else than just a good form. All in all, the clear difference in class should have the word here. Good Luck!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 February

Juan Monaco (Santiago' date= vs Chela) x Peter Luczak (Santiago, vs Marrero): Double at 2.00 I think the merits of Juan Monaco have been discussed here already, but I'll add my tuppence worth. He's a very solid player, especially on clay, and he's playing an ageing Chela who can't last with the best in terms of physicality and stamina. Monaco leads the H2Hs 3-2, although the pair haven't met since 2007. As for Luczak, he's been playing well recently on hard courts but prefers clay. He defeated Potito Starace well - who is a better player than David Marrero - and is more used to playing against better opposition. This is a step down in class and the Spaniard struggled in R1 with a relatively unknown player. Hard to see past Luczak. Bet strength: 3pts

Nice 3pt profit from this one, both players won in straight sets :ok