Kempton 31st

[markmywords]

14:55 Texas Queen Trainer Mick Channon has has a winner and 2 seconds out of 4 last fortnight. The winner being this selection where winning by 2 lengths off same mark. Fanning booked again who is winning 1 in 3 of his races. 1pt win 15:25 Dvinsky Top speed rating on ATR a CD winner who is wearing blinkers for the first time today. 3rd 3 days ago here CD off same mark in a class5 and was just pipped before the line 1pt win.

[Vision]

Re: Kempton 31st 2:25 Kempton Park - Betdaq Median Auction Maiden Stakes / 5f With American Light declared a non-runner that's one pace option gone and therefore The Strig should be able to get an uncontested lead upfront. This, and the coinciding drop in trip could be the winning formula in what looks a race with a lack of depth. On his latest outing, The Strig raced in a seemingly hot maiden at Lingfield, when finishing third in a race that has included numurous horses that have gone on to win since including; Passion Overflow, Purple Gallery, Ming Master and Cosimo De Medici. The latter named found himself five and a half lengths behind The Strig in fifth and has since gone on to romp home off a mark of 71, therefore The Strig could be well in at the weights and could be one to look out for in the future after being handed a first handicap mark of 69. The Williams and Carson team combined yesterday with The Scorching Wind to take the most valuable handicap of the day at Lingfield and on the whole, Williams' horses are in decent nick. The main danger here seems to be Blue Zephyr for Willie Muir and Martin Dwyer. He has shown promise on his two starts to date, the latest when coming off of a 9 month break in a poor maiden at Lingfield. He ran green that day and ran on fairly well but he was given a hard time of it. I don't believe he is open to that much improvement and I fancy him to find my selection too good today. It wouldn't be fair to not mention the newcomer of the race Dominium who runs for a yard who has the odd debut winner but he isn't particually well bred and has another engagement on the third of Febuary so he may well need the run. On the whole this seems a two horse race and The Strig is a confident selection.

[Vision]

Re: Kempton 31st 2:55 Kempton - Betdaq Poker Handicap / 5f With Wanchai Whisper declared a non-runner it makes this race slightly easier to solve, although it still isn't the most straight forward. Texas Queen finally got a win under her belt in a poor maiden at Wolverhampton last time out and is a consistent sort, but consistentcy doesn't win you races and she looks a few gears short of winning a race such as this. I'll happily rule her out back in a handicap. With the other two horses; Papageno and Micky's Knock Off being in poor form of late, and not looking like turning that around anytime soon off their marks, that leaves the in-form pair of R Woody and Boogie Waltzer. R Woody caused a shock when winning a 5f maiden at Southwell comfertably at 100/1 after showing nothing on his first three starts. He has arguably been unlucky not to win since and has shown himself to be just as effective on the polytrack after finishing runner-up on his latest two starts. He could well play second fiddle again today with the progressive Boogie Waltzer being in the race. Carson and Williams pair up again in this race and will take all the beating with Boogie Waltzer who definitely had more in hand last time out than the winning distance would suggest. Boogie Waltzer didn't get a clear run at all and looked certainly beat a furlong or so out. Carson managed to switch the horse and managed to get it up to win near the line in a very impressive ride. His only run at Kempton so for came on only his fourth start in which the selection finished fourth, albeit that race was over 6f and as the horse has since shown, 5f is his optimum trip. Bearing all that in mind and the fact Carson once again takes off a valuable 3lbs, everything is in place for Boogie Waltzer to complete a hat-trick.

[Vision]

Re: Kempton 31st 3:55 Kempton - Betdaq.co.uk Conditions Stakes / 6f You can't totally write off anything in this 6 runner affair, although some horses have more negatives than others, and we'll start with the rank outsider at the moment, Seasider. I was fairly interested in this horse until seeing it run poorly at Lingfield yesterday. He looked to be coming back to form after a very promising comeback run at Kempton a week ago after a 7 month lay-off. Another horse who was near the top of my shortlist was Elna Bright but the conditions of today's race aren't going to suit. He has been racing well in handicaps of late, winning two of his last three starts. The latter race at Lingfield included Fathsta who reapposes today. Today's race is over 6f and Elna Bright prodominitly races over 7f to 1m and without a major pace option in today's race, a slowly run 6f can only decrease the chances of Elna Bright. Combine that with having to give weight to every horse in the field, this horse doesn't come into my calculations. That leads me onto Fathsta. He has quite alot to find at the weights and David Simcock has kept this horse busy over the winter and he looks a horse hard to win with, his chances weren't improved last time out when being raced more prominently. Like Elna Bright will probably need more of a test over 6f to get his head in front. The same goes for Indian Skipper. A slowly run 6f can't enhance the horses chances at all and he isn't good enough in my opinion. That leaves Aeroplane and Orpenindeed. As quirky as Aeroplane is, you can't doubt the horse has class and a race like this is well in him. He is the best off at the weights by some margin and this could well be a great bit of placing by David Evans, but I have my reservations. Like a number of horses previously mentioned this potentially slowly run race isn't sure to suit. He's likely to go off favourite and I can't be backing a horse at around 5/2 when he is as quirky as he is. There's only one left and that is Orpenindeed who is my selection. He is very versitle tactics wise and should get an easy lead in this race and be able to set his own pace. He ran well in defeat in a number of tough handicap's last season and put in some decent performances on the A/W at Wolverhampton towards the back end of the season. He made a comeback run earlier in the month and although finishing along way down the field in a handicap at Wolverhampton, he should strip fitter for that run. In a very trappy affair I have a slight preference for Orpenindeed who can see out this trip well from the front.

[Vision]

Re: Kempton 31st 4:25 Kempton - Betdaq.co.uk Handicap / 7f Blue Lyric has done nothing wrong in his short career so far and comes back to Kempton with an 100% record and is very much the one to beat. But I doubt he'll represent any sort of value in another trappy race. There's no reason why Itsthursdayalready should reserve placings with the likely favourite so he's the first to be ruled out. The second is going to be Craicattack who seems to have gone off the boil of late and finished behind Itsthursdayalready on his latest start. Off a mark of 75 it will be hard for him to get involved against more progressive sorts. Cuthbert has been steadily progressive this last few months and has rewarded William Jarvis with two victories in his last three runs but another rise in the weights could holt this horse in a race such as this one. Khanivorous didn't show much on his first two starts but came back from a long lay-off to score over course and distance in November. The handicapper didn't take much of a chance and subsequently Khanivorous only managed to finish 5th over 1m here in December. A drop back to 7f and a 3lbs drop in the weights are seen as positives but Khanivorous is probably best watched at this moment in time. Time and time again you see Mark Johnston pull out a winner from nowhere. And I feel it could be the same again today with Egyptology who has been steadily progressive in his three starts to date. He has been gelded since his last run and recieves plenty of weight all round here. With Joe Fanning riding well and the stable in red-hot form, this could well be another winner in a tough race to call.

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 31st 3.55 Kempton Six runners line up to face the starter in this six furlong conditions race and although Aeroplane is best in on officialy figures, a suspicion that he needs a true pace to chase, as well as at least another furlong, means he is overlooked. Similar comments apply to Elna Bright who landed a valuable handicap when last seen but who is probably best over a mile whilst Indian Skipper and Seasider shape as if seven furlongs is probably their optimum trip. Fathsta possesses the pace to act over this sprint disatance but he is another that could be staying on all too late from off the pace so we side with ORPENINDEED, who is comfortable making the running and who does not look out of his depth in this grade. My 100 % book: Aeroplane 3/1, Elna Bright 7/2, Fathsta 4/1, Orpenindeed 5/1, Indian Skipper 10/1, Seasider 14/1 Suggested bet: Orpenindeed 11/2 William Hill, 0.5 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds).

[chris34]

Re: Kempton 31st 3.55 Kempton On a poor day of racing this is a poor turnout for a decent prize and they will all pickup prize money for just running! My negatices are as follow; Elna Bright confidence will be running high after winning the first super 7 handicap which was extremely hot but has only won a maiden over this trip although hasnt had too many chances over this trip lately and wouldnt cross off completely, but does have to find 11lb on aeroplane on OR's. Indian skipper had looked unlucky last 2 starts until being rather disappointing last time out on friday when well held in 2nd and had several runs in short space of time! Orpenindeed looks the one to possibly make the running but with a field that are full of finishers and many of these win over further he could get caught short in the finish especialy with several of these well in on weight terms. Now the positives; well that leaves Fathsta had looked in good heart until last time out when a well beaten favourite although having to run wide cant really find any other excuse and therefore another chance is given, he looks far more at home over this trip than the 7f he chased Elna Bright home in few weeks ago and does have a decent turn of foot and has won in small fields before when tracking the pace and may just be a bit too speedy for these. Aeroplane is best off on the weights and is another that has won in small fields (usually in claimers), he is fairly quirky and been kept busy but looked full of running when last seen on polytrack but wasn really asked much of a question in my opinion and the booking of Baker is a sign they may be after little bit more than a place!! 1pt win aeroplane 11/4 coral 0.5pt win fathsta 3/1 coral 4.55 Kempton The race that needs the most studying and its an apprentice race, says it all for sunday racing but nonetheless its an interesting race with a heck of a lot of value about in the race. Erinjay is a short priced favourite which I cant have only raced twice well beaten first start and caused a 20/1 in a very weak maiden and didnt beat anything and a mark of 70 looks harsh in a field like this of experienced sorts. Alqaahir went close last time out but a mile looks a bit short for him and HT has taken all value out of that one. That leaves me with ocean legend who runs under a penalty having won extremely well last time out and has a good strike rate on aw with 3 wins and 11 places out of 28 runs and has won off much higher marks in his time and probably best jockey on board in Cannon. Another useful jockey who is useful for his claim and is able to claim 3lb under todays conditions and he rides the useful all weather performer Teen Ager who is making seasonal reapearance has been pulled out of several races recently so fitness didnt ought to be a problem, he last won off a mark of 58 and when last seen on aw he finished 2nd over CD off a mark of 61 before turning in a disappointment on turf, rated 63 today but has placed off marks well into the 70's and looks massively over priced, main concern is the break has run well once with a break of over 100 days and awful twice. 0.5pt e/w ocean legend 7/1 coral 0.25pt e/w teen ager 33/1 bet365

[Stevet1859]

Re: Kempton 31st 4:55 Kempton: Stateside 1pt e/w 20/1 Coral & Grey Boy 1pt win 25/1 Sportingbet Stateside had a pretty good season on the turf last year with wins at Ayr and Hamilton and several other placed efforts before a poor final run. Lines up here off 62 for her second all weather start. If she goes on the surface, (every chance she will), then could go close at a decent price. Grey Boy is getting a bit long in the tooth, however is well handicapped goes well here and could pop up at a price.

[dannyfield]

Re: Kempton 31st MISARO 3.25 won on only race over C&D in a class 6 race,big threat if running at his best.10/3 win

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Kempton 31st

2:25 Kempton Park - Betdaq Median Auction Maiden Stakes / 5f With American Light declared a non-runner that's one pace option gone and therefore The Strig should be able to get an uncontested lead upfront. This, and the coinciding drop in trip could be the winning formula in what looks a race with a lack of depth. On his latest outing, The Strig raced in a seemingly hot maiden at Lingfield, when finishing third in a race that has included numurous horses that have gone on to win since including; Passion Overflow, Purple Gallery, Ming Master and Cosimo De Medici. The latter named found himself five and a half lengths behind The Strig in fifth and has since gone on to romp home off a mark of 71, therefore The Strig could be well in at the weights and could be one to look out for in the future after being handed a first handicap mark of 69. The Williams and Carson team combined yesterday with The Scorching Wind to take the most valuable handicap of the day at Lingfield and on the whole, Williams' horses are in decent nick. The main danger here seems to be Blue Zephyr for Willie Muir and Martin Dwyer. He has shown promise on his two starts to date, the latest when coming off of a 9 month break in a poor maiden at Lingfield. He ran green that day and ran on fairly well but he was given a hard time of it. I don't believe he is open to that much improvement and I fancy him to find my selection too good today. It wouldn't be fair to not mention the newcomer of the race Dominium who runs for a yard who has the odd debut winner but he isn't particually well bred and has another engagement on the third of Febuary so he may well need the run. On the whole this seems a two horse race and The Strig is a confident selection.

must agree. main market rival blue zephyr, appeared to me to find 5f on the sharp side when last seen. the strig's latest piece of form(when 3rd at LING) has been well advertised,with numourous winners coming from that lingfield maiden. has to be backed at odds against(5/4 still available)

[Trotter]

Re: Kempton 31st Not very keen on all these small field races but at least they don't take long to look at ! 2.25 - The Strig - win Got this one miles clear on my speed figs. If i don't pick horses like this then there's no point spending time compiling them. Straightforward choice but the small field makes it a bit of a lottery as it could be a false run race in a slow time which would make speed figs a bit redundant 2.55 - Papagino - win I'd like to go EW on this one even if there had been only 5 runners, but with 4 runners it's got to be a win. Outsider of the field currently showing at a best price 18/1. I liked it's last run coming back from a 2 month break and well there until fading in the final furlong. If it's strips fitter today should have a great chance on a track where it's recorded a good speed fig in the past. It's the speediest bred of the 4 runers and could have the edge if it turns into a 2 furlong sprint which is quite likely with just 4 runners 3.25 - Dvinsky - win Great chance for the old boy to notch up another win. He's been in generally good form if not quite able to win from his handicap mark. This looks lke his ideal conditions today - small field, can get to the front and dictate the pace

[Trotter]

Re: Kempton 31st 3.55 - Fathsta - win Strange looking race this one - I have all the other horses apart from Fathsta as better over 7 furlongs. And he is the only CD winner in the field. He generally goes well here - his last 2 runs over this CD I have him recording solid class 2/3 speed figs In a small field I reckon it's safest to go with the one with 6 furlong speed. 4.25 - Khanivorous - win Won it's maiden over this CD then ran in a hot looking mile handicap next and finished 5th. Apart from the rag that finished tailed off every horse from that race that has run since has won, the winner, 4th and 6th. Handicapper has dropped him 3 lbs and dropping back to 7 furlongs he has a great chance.

[Lars]

Re: Kempton 31st Posted this earlier in the BBOD thread. 16:55 Kempton Prince Rossi is a huge price for a horse that has won two out of two here. These were when it was 16/13lbs lower than today, and were last year. However, it's two Chepstow successes last year were good runs and a price of 22/1 is a huge price. Has ran well off a break before, and runs well generally at this time of the year. Talented apprentice on board in Billy Cray, who unfortunately doesn't claim anything but is experienced enough to give a better ride than most here. Draw a concern but usually starts well and gets to the front quickly, so shouldn't be too much of a problem. 1pt Win @ 25/1 StanJames ( at 11am, Best price is now 22/1 SportingBet)

[Trotter]

Re: Kempton 31st At last we get to a big field handicap ! 4.25 - Prince Rossi - EW CD winner who comes here after a 7 month lay off. He did win here last year on his return from a long break and I like a pattern like that. He went on to win again here then won two races at chepstow before tailing off for the season. Hope the break will have freshened him up and that he's fit enough His 4 wins last year saw him climb from a class 7 to a class 5 and although he's now a 6YO, he's relatively lightly raced for that age with 29 career runs.

[Trotter]

Re: Kempton 31st Haa........nice one Lars.........I hadn't seen yours as it took me so long to write mine ! :rollin

[mowgli77]

Re: Kempton 31st Posted earlier, now 9-1 with Bet365 Very Well Red 4.55 Kempton (Each Way 12-1 >Bet365) Has plenty of form over the 1m trip, was a course winner very easily in a class 6 contest off 53 when pulling away at the end of the race. Luke Morris was on board but Kieren Fox takes over today and has had 2 winners recently. Drawn ok for this race, takes on better horses but has a chance and 12's is worth taking. Stateside might be a danger as it is Faheys only horse and he has sent it about 224 miles.

[chris34]

Re: Kempton 31st Well the one we all dismissed lol!!! Fathsta would have been better just going from the front was given a shoddy ride in the position it found itself!

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Kempton 31st

Well the one we all dismissed lol!!! Fathsta would have been better just going from the front was given a shoddy ride in the position it found itself!

i guess the jockey may have been riding to orders,the horse has showed its best form held up off a strong pace. unfortunately this race was always going to be run at a crawl. the winner coincedently also needed a strong run race,and even an extra furlong wouldnt have gone amiss as well,so it makes ELNA BRIGHTS perfomance even better.but the crucial factor for me in this race,his jockey had the commen sense to sit in 2nd place,when the pace quickened a fulong out.

[chris34]

Re: Kempton 31st

i guess the jockey may have been riding to orders,the horse has showed its best form held up off a strong pace. unfortunately this race was always going to be run at a crawl. the winner coincedently also needed a strong run race,and even an extra furlong wouldnt have gone amiss as well,so it makes ELNA BRIGHTS perfomance even better.but the crucial factor for me in this race,his jockey had the commen sense to sit in 2nd place,when the pace quickened a fulong out.

Your right prob was his orders, but common sense tells you if race isnt being run to suit youve got nothing to lose and that makes a good jockey in my opinion!

[Trotter]

Re: Kempton 31st It was a very slow run race, nearly 4 seconds above standard, which is shocking for a class 2 over 6 furlongs You'd think that the speediest horse would win in what turns into a 2 furlong sprint, but Eddie 'The Shoe' said on RUK that he'd noticed that stamina often wins out in those kind of races. it's counter to logic, but that's what he said !