Snooker: Welsh Open

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I don't think Maguire playing anything special, saftey is letting Williams down, I agree he is still in this. :ok

[ani_lfc]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Pretty awful tournament, at -16.39pts, but quite a few bets I like here to hopefully get a bit back. A.Carter vs S.Maguire, over 5.5 50+ breaks, 6pts @ 8/13 Skybet A.Carter vs S.Maguire, over 9 frames, 3pts @ Evs Bet365 A.Carter to have highest break vs S.Maguire DNB, 4pts @ 6/5 Boylesports Probably more bets than I'd ideally like but think the lines are all wrong here. Neither of these have played outstandingly well this week but they've both reached the semi without too much trouble. They will both up their game for this semi and I think it will be a close one. Maguire has beat Hawkins & Williams 5-1 in his last 2 games, with Carter coming 5-2 against Robertson & Day. Tough to split them so I'll take the over 9 frames here, with 6-4 either suiting us. As far as the breaks go, I think 9 frames will be enough to bring in 6 50+ breaks. That would mean 0.67 50+ per frame and that was covered in all 4 quarters and in the 2 semis here last year. You've got to assume the standard will pick up with a ranking final at stake so the only danger to this bet is that one of them runs away with it 6-1 or 6-2. Carter is the only 1 of the 2 to have hit a century in this (2 of them in fact) and has won this line in all 3 rounds so far. With a close match expected, I can only take Carter here to hit another big break especially with him being the outsider!

[Fizruhas]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Well it's a semis today so i decide to come with one bet today. It's good to have A. Carter back on track, such a good player and i'll be on him to win this tournament just 4 snooker, not betting :ok The other semi should be classic one, one of the best two known players to meet each other today. John looks little bit more determined to win this one than the rocket, Ronnie sometimes loosing his motivation, i just see here little advantage for John, he is more motivated, he doesn't make dumb mistakes, he is more likely for me to bet on at this stage, su i'm picking up the Scot with 2.2 at bwin! Higgins to beat Ronnie 2.2 @bwin !

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Well, that was a better match for me but unlucky not to have a full house:wall. Only the over 9 frames bet was a loser so, with 2 winners, that's a 5.49pt profit on the match, taking me to -10.89pts for the tournament. Onto what should be a cracking match tonight and my bets for this are. R.O'Sullivan vs J.Higgins, over 6.5 50+ breaks, 9pts @ 4/6 Paddy Power R.O'Sullivan vs J.Higgins, over 9 frames, 4pts @ 11/10 Bet365 J.Higgins to win race to 3 frames vs R.O'Sullivan, 3pts @ 6/5 Boylesports Can't wait for this match between the 2 best players in the game. There's nothing between them so a close match is forecast. I think I've mentioned in a previous snooker thread that Higgins is a quick starter and it's very rare he loses an opening session so I will take him in the race to 3 here. In his 3 matches so far, won that race every time 3-0 vs Judge & Selby and 3-1 vs Dott. O'Sullivan too has won all 3, but Mark Allen gave him a scare lto going 2-1 up. I'm not sure how 6-4 or 6-5 either way can be a longer price than 6-3 or less, it doesn't make sense to me, so I'll definitely take the overs. Neither player will give much and this could well be a final frame decider. In terms of the 50+ breaks, this line looks way too low. In their respective quarter final matches and the 10 frames they won, they scored a total of 9 50+ breaks, basically 0.9 per frame. On that basis, we would only need 8 frames to bring this line and I've already stated I fully expect a longer match so again can't understand the price. That's why I'm going for my biggest bet of the year so far here.

[ani_lfc]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I agree with Russ on this, over 6.5 50+ breaks with paddy power

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I'm with Russ too. Same 3 bets tonight except I'm on Higgins to win. Max bet included as well. 4pts J.Higgins to beat R.O'Sullivan 11/8 Blue Square 4pts Over 9 frames 11/10 Bet365 10pts Over 6.5 50+ breaks 4/6 Paddy Power I really can't wait for this match. The O'Sullivan-Higgins trilogy of this season continues. They've met in every ranking event so far this season. O'Sullivan won their Shanghai Masters semi final 6-1 but since then Higgins has prevailed in a couple of deciding frame epics. Their match in the semi final of the Grand Prix was as good a snooker match as I can remember and I think tonight will be full of quality as well. It's almost impossible to believe these two heavy scorers won't make at least 7 50 breaks between them. Both are scoring well this week so that's a maximum bet for me. The last two matches have been really close and with both playing well tonight should be as well so I'm taking the overs but as long as Higgins wins 4 frames, which I think he will do then I'll make a profit on the 4pt bets and should they both win, and the fact Higgins has won both his matches in deciders in this trilogy, suggests they may well do then a very solid profit will be made.

[ani_lfc]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open 2 50 breaks in the first frame already :)

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Well, that was a better match for me but unlucky not to have a full house:wall. Only the over 9 frames bet was a loser so, with 2 winners, that's a 5.49pt profit on the match, taking me to -10.89pts for the tournament. Onto what should be a cracking match tonight and my bets for this are. R.O'Sullivan vs J.Higgins, over 6.5 50+ breaks, 9pts @ 4/6 Paddy Power R.O'Sullivan vs J.Higgins, over 9 frames, 4pts @ 11/10 Bet365 J.Higgins to win race to 3 frames vs R.O'Sullivan, 3pts @ 6/5 Boylesports Can't wait for this match between the 2 best players in the game. There's nothing between them so a close match is forecast. I think I've mentioned in a previous snooker thread that Higgins is a quick starter and it's very rare he loses an opening session so I will take him in the race to 3 here. In his 3 matches so far, won that race every time 3-0 vs Judge & Selby and 3-1 vs Dott. O'Sullivan too has won all 3, but Mark Allen gave him a scare lto going 2-1 up. I'm not sure how 6-4 or 6-5 either way can be a longer price than 6-3 or less, it doesn't make sense to me, so I'll definitely take the overs. Neither player will give much and this could well be a final frame decider. In terms of the 50+ breaks, this line looks way too low. In their respective quarter final matches and the 10 frames they won, they scored a total of 9 50+ breaks, basically 0.9 per frame. On that basis, we would only need 8 frames to bring this line and I've already stated I fully expect a longer match so again can't understand the price. That's why I'm going for my biggest bet of the year so far here.

That'll do nicely:ok 3 from 3 tonight bringing a total profit for the day of 19.49pts:D From a horrific deficit of -16.39pts, I'm now +3.10pts in profit. Great stuff too from Fizruhas, Kev & Ani:clap:clap:clap

[ani_lfc]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open brilliant tipping lads! lets hope for more of the same tomorrow!

[ShanAce]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open A BIG one for me the final. HIGGINS V CARTER - OVER 10.5 50 BREAKS 10pts - skybet @ 5/4 Ridiculous price here IMO. Carter has hit 7 50+ breaks in his last two games and also a 48 and a 49 break against Maguire. This is in 16 frames. And Higgins has hit 8 50+ breaks in 18 frames. This could be a close one thus giving this bet every possibility. I expect both players to be on top of their game and the only way this could turn out to be a loser is if one player runs away with it 9-2 or 9-3. Should be a banker IMO :dude

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Hoping for a top quality final today and taking a few bets here too. A.Carter vs J.Higgins, 2 or 3 centuries (11/4 & 11/2), 4pts @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (split stakes) A.Carter vs J.Higgins, over 14.5 frames, 6pts @ 4/5 Coral J.Higgins to beat A.Carter, first 8 frames, 5pts @ 4/5 Stan James I think it's well known that I like to back Higgins to get out of the blocks quickly and I'm again following that. I can't remember the last time the Scot lost an opening session in a longer match, so the price looks generous. He will be desperate to win this after an awful Masters so I think the pressure will be on Ali from an early stage. At worst, this will finish 4-4 this afternoon I believe but I'm more than happy to take 4/5 on 5-3 or better in Higgins' favour. Having said that, this will be a close match. Both players are steadily improving and have massive reasons to win. Carter is the reigning champ who's had a poor season to put behind him whilst Higgins has that Masters performance. Both good scorers in the balls, I'd expect this to finish no worse than 9-6 either way so I'll take the overs. The over 1.5 century line is odds on at all the bookies so I'm taking the value in 2 or 3 centuries at a shade under 12/5. These 2 have shared over 25% off the centuries in this tournament, a total of 5 between them. With the match expected to last 15 frames or more, I'll expect a couple of tons to be scored, whilst believing that 4+ is too many. That makes the 2.38 on offer look value and I'll take that as my final bet. Good luck all:ok

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Really big result for me last night, +15.57 for my 3 bets which was very much needed. Brings me back to just -3.66 for the competition which is no mean effort given I was -15 coming into the main tournament after some horrendous luck with the qualifying series. 2 to begin with in this final. 4pts A.Carter vs J.Higgins - Over 10.5 50+ breaks 5/4 Skybet 5pts Over 14.5 Frames 4/5 Coral Agree with ShanAce that the price is very much daft for the 50 breaks. This is a best of 17 frames match and generally in finals you get more frames won in a single visit. I think we'll see at least 15 frames so we've got a couple of scrappy frames on our side here as well. Both men are scoring well. Higgins hit the highest break of the competition last night to show he's in decent scoring nick while Carter's been putting good breaks together all week. Both are experienced in finals now so I expect a good game here with at least 11 50+ breaks. I can't see either running away with it too much and whoever wins is likely to win this 9-6 or closer in my mind so I'm on the overs in the 14.5 frames line as well.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

A BIG one for me the final. HIGGINS V CARTER - OVER 10.5 50 BREAKS 10pts - skybet @ 5/4 Ridiculous price here IMO. Carter has hit 7 50+ breaks in his last two games and also a 48 and a 49 break against Maguire. This is in 16 frames. And Higgins has hit 8 50+ breaks in 18 frames. This could be a close one thus giving this bet every possibility. I expect both players to be on top of their game and the only way this could turn out to be a loser is if one player runs away with it 9-2 or 9-3. Should be a banker IMO :dude

Hi mate, Good luck with this bet but a word of warning..... The 4 finals so far this season have recorded 50+ breaks per frame of: 0.67 (O'Sullivan v Wenbo) 0.38 (Robertson vs Ding) 0.61 (Ding vs Higgins) 0.84 (O'Sullivan vs Selby) In addition, of the 21 frames both Carter & Higgins have won in this tournament to date, their 50+ breaks per frame are: 0.67 Higgins 0.52 Carter ...an average of: 0.60 combined I guess it depends on how many frames you think this final will contain but, just to give examples of 50+ breaks needed per frame, here goes: 0.65 for 9-8 score 0.69 for 9-7 0.73 for 9-6 0.79 for 9-5 0.85 for 9-4 0.92 for 9-3 I hope the final is of high quality and the 50's line is covered for you mate but I certainly wouldn't say the price is ridiculous. Good luck:ok

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open You won't see 4 better frames of snooker than that from Higgins. Flawless snooker :eek.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open That was a pretty amazing session from Higgins. 4-0 with breaks of 137, 101, 95 & 71:eek:eek:eek

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open 6-2 to Higgins at the end of the first session so that's the bet on Higgins to win the afternoon in:ok. 2 centuries also, so have to hope there's no more than 1 tonight whilst I need Carter to win at least 4 frames before Higgins wins 3 to bring in the overs. Shanace & Kev are going ok too with the 50+, currently at 8 after 8 frames so a 1.00 break rate:clap Could be interesting tonight if Carter can win the first 2:ok

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I'm going to take one more for tonight. A.Carter (+4.5 frames) to beat J.Higgins, 4pts @ 5/4 Skybet Currently we stand at 2-6 so we need Carter to take 3 of the first 5 frames of the evening for this bet to come in which is distinctly possible. You've got to ignore the first 4 frames, where the Scot was untouchable, one of the best first 4 frames of snooker you'll ever see. However, after the interval it was 2-2 where the Captain still didn't gain much momentum. I'm taking hope here from the pink Higgins missed to make at 7-1, that will keep Ali on the task in hand and the fact he can't be that bad again. The other thing that gives me hope this will be closer than people imagine is that last year Carter was 5-2 down in this final, albeit against Joe Swail, but then rattled off 7 on the trot to win the event 9-5 including 2 tons and 4 more 50+ breaks. In the first 7 frames that day, he only managed 1 50+ so this looks a similar pattern. It's crucial he takes the first frame here which I think he will so 5/4 feels a shade too big here and is a price I'm happy to get involved at.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Great call Shanace & Kev on the over 10.5 50+ breaks:clap:clap Still glad I put up the stats about previous finals, it's all about sharing opinions. Delighted it's come in though, super stuff.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Massive clarance from Ali there. If he wins this one for 7-5 it'll be bigtime game on :ok.

[ani_lfc]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open 8-4 Need Ali to take the next 2 :hope

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Don't know who I'm more annoyed at....me or Ali Carter?:lol Anyway, -0.48pts for the match but a cracking day yesterday puts me in profit for the 3rd snooker tournament on the trot, with a +2.62pt profit. Overall, I'm delighted after languishing at -15pts for most of the week. Onto the China Open next before the Worlds:nana

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Don't know who I'm more annoyed at....me or Ali Carter?:lol Anyway, -0.48pts for the match but a cracking day yesterday puts me in profit for the 3rd snooker tournament on the trot, with a +2.62pt profit. Overall, I'm delighted after languishing at -15pts for most of the week. Onto the China Open next before the Worlds:nana

That's good work mate. Profit in any tournament in any sport is hard to come by so 3 consecutive profitable tournaments represents some fantastic tipping :clap. I stayed as I was which was -3.66 but +11.34 for the tournament proper. May have a dabble in the China Open qualis next week having learnt a few lessons from this.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Cheers mate:ok More solid profit from you too mate in the tournament proper. Can't argue with over 10pts in an event with some strange results. Was thinking the same about the qualifers next week but in Paris for 2 days so might not get much chance.