Snooker: Welsh Open

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open He won his only ranking event match of the season to qualify for this and that was 5-4 to a Chinese unknown. Did hit a 125 though :unsure. Williams played well at the Grand Prix as well as the Masters. Made the semis in the GP but walked into a Ding who missed nothing. Even so though, O'Brien always needs beating doesn't he.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I'm concentrating on 2 matches involving big priced shots against out of form players. 2pts D.Dale to beat S.Maguire 11/4 Stan James 4pts D.Dale (+2.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire 8/11 William Hill I backed Stephen Maguire outright in the masters but realised pretty quickly that I wasn't going to be collecting. He looks so out of fluidity it's untrue. Occasionally in that event he found his game when he was in the balls but all too often it got scrappy and that doesn't suit him. This could too really. Dale's on home soil in a tournament where he's been to the semi finals in the past and he's still no mug. He beat Steve Davis to make it here which is still a fair achievement and also stopped the in form Matthew Selt in qualifying too. Maguire was really poor in the Masters and I expect Dale to stay within 2 frames of the Scot here and wouldn't be totally surprised were Dale to win the match. 2pts T.Drago to beat R.Day 4/1 Stan James 4pts T.Drago (+2.5 frames) to beat R.Day Evs William Hill Tony Drago played some good snooker last week and I think he's got every chance against a woefully out of form Ryan Day even if he is in his own back yard. Even now, when Drago's in a bit of nick he's worth following and given the chances that Day gave to both Perry and Maguire at Wembley, I think he'll get chances in this match. Ryan Day was really below par at Wembley. He beat an out of sorts Joe Perry but got walloped by a far from fluent Stephen Maguire. Day could be under a spot of pressure here with the expectant home crowd wanting a win but if Drago settles quickly I think the Tornado could see this one through. He's scoring well enough at the minute to take 3 frames at least which secures a profit.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Sometimes i think Magurie doesnt play as well when expected to win as he does when he is regarded as the underdog.. Will be leaving that game alone but it will be intereting to see how it finishes up.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open That's seriously annoying. Effectively 17.5pts gone in deciding frames where my player led going onto the colours and were both at the table going into the colours :wall:wall. Both handicaps came in though so I was +2.92pts for the day and now +8.17 for the tournament proper but -6.83 overall because of the disaster that was the qualifying.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Bloody unlucky today Kev. However still a very solid profit with Higginson winning and both Drago & Dale covering the handicaps. Top stuff with over 8pts profit secured:clap. It's a case of what could have been though as, for deciding frame losses with Dale & Drago, the profit could have been closer to 25pts:wall It shows you're reading these well mate & Higginson is still on track for the quarter at a massive 25's:hope Personally, a poor first round following the poor qualifers. With the Fu bet down too, I'm -11.79pts with the outright on Robertson still running. Back later with 2 or 3 for tomorrow:ok

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Just the one for me tomorrow afternoon. Got a feeling I might regret not banging this with a bigger stake but it's still the 1st round so I'll stay safeish. 4pts G.Dott to beat J.Perry 9/10 Stan James Anyone queueing up to take Perry at odds on after his performance in the Masters? No me neither :lol. Perry was awful. Was hard to watch really. His confidence looked shot to pieces and his cue action was letting him down badly. I can't see how that could have changed much in the space of 2 weeks with no real competitive snooker to occupy him. Graeme Dott came through Ken Doherty in the qualifying section and you'd have to say that's a decent form line for this match because Doherty can't be playing any worse than Perry right now. Perry may be more settled with this being on an outside table but I still can't believe he'll win if his cue action doesn't improve. For me, it's got to be the Scot to win this one.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open 3 for me tomorrow. G.Dott to beat J.Perry, 4pts @ 9/10 Stan James Joe Perry is a player I used to keep on the right side of but this season he seems to be struggling massively. Has only won 2 matches in the 4 ranking events played but even those wins weren't impressive. Lost in the first round of the Shangai before beating both Marcus Campbell and Barry Pinches at the Grand Prix. Those wins were nothing to write home about, recording only 4 breaks over 50. In his last 2 events, was easily swept aside by Stuart Bingham 9-4 in the UK recording just 1 50+, and was then crushed 6-0 at the Masters by an out of sorts Ryan Day, where the highest break of the match by either player was only 67. Here, he faces a former top 16 player and tough opponent Graeme Dott. After a slow start to the season, he qualified for the UK where he retired ill and qualifed for this with a hard fought but fully deserved victory over Ken Doherty. This won't be the prettiest match to watch but I'll go with the mental toughness of the Scot to win the day here. F.O'Brien (+2.5 frames) to beat M.Williams, 5pts @ 10/11 Coral Admittedly, Williams is in top form at present having an excellent run at the Masters where he played really well but this is a different kettle of fish. This venue is not exactly Wembley and I think the added pressure of home advantage will count against him here. Last season here, he was hammered 5-1 by David Gilbert and I'm sure that will pray on his mind as he'll be desperate to impress. O'Brien meanwhile played well here last season losing out to Fu 5-4 who actually went on to beat O'Sullivan in the next round. Qualifed for his first ranking event of the season here but has not been playing that badly. Has been beaten 5-4 twice, 5-3 & 9-7 so you always know you've been in a battle. Although he beat an unknown in the qualifer, he will take a huge amount of confidence with his 1st win of the season and, as Kev states earlier, he did hit a 125. O'Brien will fight all the way to the finish and that may not suit the fluency of Williams here so I'll very hopeful that he can cover the 3 frames required here on the handicap. J.Higgins (-2.5 frames) to beat M.Judge, 6pts @ 4/5 SportingBet J.Higgins to beat M.Judge 5-0, 1pt @ 7/1 SportingBet Fair play to Judge who won his 2 qualifers, including a 5-3 against Wenbo. However in those 2 matches, he only managed 4 50+ breaks, that will not be good enough against the World Champ. Has dropped out of the world's top 50 in the provisional and I'll be surprised if he gives Higgins any sort of problems here. I believe he's had his moment in beating the well touted Liang Wenbo last week. Higgins will be smarting after his awful performance in losing 6-3 to Mark Allen in the opening round of the Masters. He will be determined to put that right and I can see him being extremely focused wanting to send out a message that he's still the man to beat. Had looked great this season reaching the semis of the Shangai & the Grand Prix, and final of the UK. Beat Selt 5-2 in the opening round of the Shangai & Joyce 5-1 in the opener for the Grand Prix. It wouldn't surprise me if he inflicted more damage on Judge and it could easily be a 5-0 drubbing. At worst, I see the Scot winning with the loss of 2 frames maximum.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Great minds & all that, Kev:lol

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open :ok Stan James look to have tonight's match all wrong. Big bet for me. 7pts S.Hendry to beat R.Day Evs Stan James There's no way on this planet I can have Ryan Day favourite here. I've criticised him a lot in recent weeks and should have been fully justified in taking him on yesterday as Drago should have beat him but clammed up when the finish line was in sight. Day wasn't that good. Just the one break over 40 and a series of poor shots and missed balls. That won't get the job done here and there's nothing to suggest an improvement on a very poor season is in sight for the Welshman. Stephen Hendry played well against Shaun Murphy in the Masters and he followed that up again last night. He beat a plucky Dave Harold 5-1 and hit a break of 62 or above in every frame he won. That included a century. The Scot looked really good and was getting in from distance which is pleasing. I can't see Day winning this match unless he suddenly clicks into the form of the last 2 years overnight. It's unlikely to happen and even then if Hendry replicates his last 2 performances he could still be good enough. It's very much the Scot for me here.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Yep, I'll play this one too...I can't really add much. 6pts G.Dott to beat J.Perry 9/10 Stan James I'm not so confidence on backing Dott to win the match but he should be against Perry, who was awful at The Masters. Dott came through the qualifying stages with a win over the experienced Ken Doherty which looks useful form. If Perry plays to that standard of The Masters then Dott should get plenty of chances to win this match.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I think Kev's got it pretty much spot on regarding Ryan Day but I'm going with a slightly different bet. S.Hendry to beat R.Day, first 4 frames, 4pts @ 15/8 Betfred Ryan Day has been playing some awful snooker whilst Hendry clicked into form against Dave Harold. Again, the home so-called advantage will come into play and Day will struggle to satisfy the crowd while he is so out of touch. In the first 4 frames against Drago in Round 1, he went 3-1 down with a top break of just 39. Hendry meanwhile stormed into a 4-0 lead with breaks of 84,113,62 & 75. He will come here full of confidence whilst Day will be really nervous so, at a price I find difficult to fathom, I'll take Hendry to lead at least 3-1 at the break.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open -13.39pts now after another bloody frustrating day. Higgins was 4-0 but couldn't finish the job off for a whitewash, O'Brien came up against a 2-ton Williams but was still ahead on the colours & at the table at 4-2 but lost that frame for the handicap loss whilst Hendry was again in the balls at 2-1 against Day but couldn't close it off. Really struggling this tournament but the ball really hasn't been running! Need Robertson now to win this to give me some hope of getting into positive figures:hope

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Robertson out. :(

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Anyone got a site where I can find out the frame scores? I want to check who has highest break current, Robertson hit a 129, something like that, can't find the frame by frame scores for other matches?

[marron]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Try Global Snooker, just type it in google.

[the mighty rams]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Anyone got a site where I can find out the frame scores? I want to check who has highest break current' date=' Robertson hit a 129, something like that, can't find the frame by frame scores for other matches?[/quote'] http://www.worldsnooker.com/welshopen10_stats.htm?tid=150 Thats got them on mate

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I haven't been betting much on this tournament so far, but I got involved along with most of you in the Hendry match tonight. :eyes Looks like it's been a horror to predict so far, so I'm going to dip my toe into the water very carefully tomorrow. B Hawkins (+1.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire @ 2.12 Betfair I'll take any chance to oppose Stephen Maguire these days. He hasn't looked right for a long while now and was far from convincing against Dominic Dale in the 1st round. Hawkins is a solid performer and I'm tempted to take him on the outright, but these are still decent odds for him to run Maguire to a decider at least. :hope

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Cheers for the link TMR! :ok

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Awful night last night. I can't believe that with just 2 50 breaks in this tournament, Ryan Day is in the quarter finals :eyes. One for this afternoon. 4pts B.Hawkins to beat S.Maguire 7/4 William Hill Barry Hawkins hasn't had a great season but he played well in seeing off the dogged and hard to beat Peter Ebdon. Not many beat him 5-0 so that was a very good result. Stephen Maguire was very lucky to see off Dominic Dale and I don't think he's playing at all well. He's probably a deserving favourite in this match based on what he can do but we've not really seen that for a year or two. Barry Hawkins is always a dangerous opponent and with breaks of 85, 58 and 64 in the last round he appears to be playing well so I'll take the Englishman to prevail to the quarter finals.

[the mighty rams]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I think Hawkins will push Maguire close, but i think Maguire will come through that match. He knows he's got a decent draw to the final if he can find a bit of form. I'm looking at Hawkins +1.5 on the handicap at the minute, that looks a decent bet

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open -6 Pts on Neil, Carter played better than I expected

2pts N.Robertson to win Welsh Open @ 10/1 Betfred :( 4pts 1st Quater Winner 7/4 365 :( Neil Robertson was unlucky to crash out of the Masters at the first hurdle when losing to Ronnie, he didn't do much wrong but when Ronnie is in that form every player on the circuit normally gets beat. He is in great form at the moment and the draw has been kind to win, should cruise past Liu song and then your looking at a potential match against Ali Carter, I wasn't impressed with Ali at The Masters he appeared to be off his game, I'll take a chance he is still in that frame of mind, if his not, will have a good game on our hands but Robertson would still be favourite to progress. He'll then likely face Day who is a tough opponent but I imagine Robertson would be heavy favourite to see him off. That'll see him in the semi's at least and win the quater bet so I think a good chance for Robertson in this tournament.

Williams still going strong defeating Higginson 5-0 this evening, meets Maguire tomorrow in the quater final which should be a good match, on him at 12/5 with the quater bet so happy with that regardless.

1.5pts M.Williams to win Welsh Open 14/1 Betfred 3pts 2nd Quater Winner @ 12/5 Sportingbet Mark Williams played some real nice snooker at The Masters and was so close to reaching the final before a good comeback from Ronnie, he still had his chance in the final frame effectively one ball away from winning the match. First up is Fergal O'Brien who's been around a while but never been a player of Mark's calibre and i'd expect the Welshman to come through, a 2nd round match v Marco Fu would probably loom and again I'd expect Mark to come through that the way his been playing, Maguire would be most likely to play Willams in the Quater's but i'm not so sure about Maguire this tournament, he didn't impress me much in The Masters and I'll probably be taking him on early doors. Good chance to win Quaters and who knows from there.

Guranteed profit here with these two meeting in the quaters tomorrow as expected.

The 3rd Quater looks really hot with Ronnie, Murphy, Ding, Allen, Cope & Stevens, i'll be betting match by match in this quater. 10pts J.Higgins to win 4th Quater @ 7/4 Stan James 10pts M.Selby to win 4th Quater @ 2/1 Sportingbet Simple really, I don't see one of these not winning this quater and I'd be very surprised if they didn't meet in the quaters, should only one of them reach the quaters I'll effectively be on them at around 1/2 which will probably still look a good price whoever they are meeting, the only danger to this bet in my eyes in Judd Trump, who Selby meets first up. The way Selby played at the Masters i'd be very surprised to see him go out, although the young lad Trump has some talent, Selby is such a good player though and will grind and grind. I don't see many problems with the likes of Dott, Perry (who played awful at The Masters) and Mark King. I don't want to sound cocky and 20pts is alot to risk but I don't see this bet failing.

-2.5pts here with both players out.

Two more 'outrights' for me. 1.5pts N.Robertson To Make Highest Break @ 14/1 Boylesports As I've said already, I fancy Neil to go deep into this tournament which is important for this bet as he'll get alot of chances to make a big score, he is a solid player in amongst the balls and he showed that against Ronnie at The Masters. He has made 14 100+ breaks on the circuit this season 2nd to O'Sullivan, highest break of 140 so far. Should give you a run for your money. 0.5pts E/W T.Ford To Make Highest Break @ 100/1 365 (4 places 1/5) Tom Ford has a difficult opening match v Mark Allen and I expect him to crash out but at the same time he may get a few chances to get into the balls and make a large break, if were looking at one of the lesser players to make a big break then Ford has a chance, his made 5 century breaks on the circuit this season with the highest break of the season, a break of 143. On that basis, this price looks rather large.

Easy win for Carter.

4pts A.Carter v M.Davis - Over 7.5 Frames @ 11/10 Coral :( I wasn't very impressed with Ali at The Masters and that was only just over a week ago so I'll take a chance he has not changed his form around, he just doesn't look to be playing his natural game. Mark Davis has been around since the early 90's and can be a dangerous player if in the mood, he does well in the qualifiers and edged out Swail 5-4 to make it here, I think we could see a tight battle between these too and no player to win the match better than 5-3.

5-3 Dott for a profit of 5.4pts.

6pts G.Dott to beat J.Perry 9/10 Stan James :) I'm not so confidence on backing Dott to win the match but he should be against Perry, who was awful at The Masters. Dott came through the qualifying stages with a win over the experienced Ken Doherty which looks useful form. If Perry plays to that standard of The Masters then Dott should get plenty of chances to win this match.

That takes me to -7.1pts for the tourny but guaranteed a profit of 7.5pts from Selby/Higgins so I'm around level stakes with a tasty bet on Williams winning his quater and the whole tournament, no reason why he couldn't the way he is playing although Ronnie always looks dangerous. Ronnie beat Cope in 55 minutes today. :loon

[the mighty rams]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Ronnie looked good but he really wasnt tested. Cope had chances in every frame missing easy balls and he should of been 4-0 up. I just think Ronnie goes out there attacking and safety doesnt really concern him as i dont think he takes this tournoment very seriously. He left easy chances for cope today through just going for pots and not really caring where the white finished if he missed, it was just that cope was playing that poorly. Ronnie does look in decent form but he can be beaten in this tournament.

[the mighty rams]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I have only just seen who Ronnie has got tomorrow. Allen looks in very good form and he's won a couple of bets for me in the masters and continued that into this tournament so im going to be sticking with him for the match against Ronnie. He will get chances, its just a case of him holding his nerve where Cope failed today. The site i use doesnt have the handicap which would be a good bet, so im just going to take Allen outright at 7/4

[marron]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Bingham had chances against Ronnie in the first round during every frame too but i doubt he will give as many to Allen in the next stage

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open O'Sullivan on 147 10 reds 10 blacks...

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Jesus, missed. Looked odds-on to get it there.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

O'Sullivan on 147 10 reds 10 blacks...

and he's nearly broken his hand after missing that red. :unsure

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Amazing, he should have done it that time. Some unbelievable shots in that attempt, all around the table to get on the black and the red into the middle was just phenomenal. To miss that green must have been a heart breaker.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Been a very disappointing week for me. In a bit of a rush so will update the P/L after these bets. 2 for tonight. 4pts A.Carter (-1.5 frames) to beat R.Day 5/4 Ladbrokes It's pretty obvious what I think of Ryan Day at the minute from my previous posts in this event but I'm standing by my reading of his form and taking him on again here. Ali Carter hasn't been flying by any means but he'll be buoyed by a very comfortable win over a form horse in Neil Robertson. Ryan Day has hit just two 50+ breaks in 2 matches this week. Somehow he's still in this event, I'm not sure how but I do know he'll have to improve in order to stay in it. Carter's rattled in a couple of tons in a couple of easy wins and as defending champion will be all out to win. I don't rate Day at all and Carter to win no worse than 5-3 is my call here. 6pts M.Williams (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire 11/8 Blue Square Mark Williams has been very very impressive in this tournament, picking up from where he left off in the Masters. He's hit 6 50+ breaks and 2 tons in the 10 frames he's won this week and looks to be scoring as well as he's ever done. Stephen Maguire was very lucky to get past Dominic Dale in round one and while he was more comfortable against Barry Hawkins he wasn't overly convincing. Mark Williams provides a much sterner test for the Scot here and I think he'll be too good for Maguire and I very much believe Williams will win this no worse than 5-3.

[ani_lfc]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Mark Williams is 3-1 down at the break but i still think hes got a chance in this 6 points on M.Williams to win @ 4