BeXXs Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Only one bet for today. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 44 24/01/10 SA Inter Milan Home HT 2.42 3.35 Betfair W 5.4 19 / 44 133.76 36% 45 24/01/10 PD Gijon Santander Home HT 2.42 3.2 Betfair L -2.42 19 / 45 131.34 32% 46 24/01/10 BL Hoffenheim Leverkusen Lay Away HT 2.43 3.3 Betfair L -2.43 19 / 46 128.91 29% 47 26/01/10 PL Tottenham Fulham Away HT 2.42 7 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Looking good so far. I'll try to follow this it looks interesting. By the way, do you take into account Home/Away at all or do you just do it on Overall results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Looking good so far. I'll try to follow this it looks interesting. By the way' date=' do you take into account Home/Away at all or do you just do it on Overall results? Thanks, Lahrio. I do not take home/away into account for the success rate of a team, but i include it in the computation of the game rating in the way that the home team always has a start advantage over the away team. For example, if two teams with the same success rate play each other, the game rating is not 50 (as it would be if the match was played on a neutral venue) but 59. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Here are the result of yesterdays match and the only selection for today. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 44 24/01/10 SA Inter Milan Home HT 2.42 3.35 Betfair W 5.4 19 / 44 133.76 36% 45 24/01/10 PD Gijon Santander Home HT 2.42 3.2 Betfair L -2.42 19 / 45 131.34 32% 46 24/01/10 BL Hoffenheim Leverkusen Lay Away HT 2.43 3.3 Betfair L -2.43 19 / 46 128.91 29% 47 26/01/10 PL Tottenham Fulham Away HT 2.42 7 Betfair L -2.42 19 / 47 126.49 26% 48 27/01/10 PL Aston Villa Arsenal Lay Away HT 2.42 3 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Half Time Result I have analysed the seasons 9394-0809 in Bundesliga' date= Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A and Ligue 1 to see how the GR is related to the half time result. This gives me my probabilities for a half time home win, draw or away win for every GR. Actually, you should consider 58(%). Home field advantage has shifted down a little bit in the last 4 1/2 seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Thanks for that info, kumquat. If i find the time i will include this and see how it affects the backtesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Todays bet came true with a goalless draw between Villa and Arsenal. The next bets will be placed on friday or saturday. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 44 24/01/10 SA Inter Milan Home HT 2.42 3.35 Betfair W 5.4 19 / 44 133.76 36% 45 24/01/10 PD Gijon Santander Home HT 2.42 3.2 Betfair L -2.42 19 / 45 131.34 32% 46 24/01/10 BL Hoffenheim Leverkusen Lay Away HT 2.43 3.3 Betfair L -2.43 19 / 46 128.91 29% 47 26/01/10 PL Tottenham Fulham Away HT 2.42 7 Betfair L -2.42 19 / 47 126.49 26% 48 27/01/10 PL Aston Villa Arsenal Lay Away HT 2.42 3 Betfair W 1.15 20 / 48 127.64 26% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: Half Time Result her are the first four selections for today. More will follow later. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 48 27/01/10 PL Aston Villa Arsenal Lay Away HT 2.42 3 Betfair W 1.15 20 / 48 127.64 26% 49 30/01/10 BL Gladbach Bremen Home HT 2.42 4.8 Betfair 50 30/01/10 BL Frankfurt Köln Home HT 2.42 2.92 Betfair 51 30/01/10 PL Fulham Aston Villa Home HT 2.42 3.85 Betfair 52 30/01/10 PL Wigan Everton Home HT 2.42 4.4 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Five more bets for the evening. I will post the results of all of todays bets tomorrow. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 53 30/01/10 BL Schalke Hoffenheim Lay Away HT 2.43 5.8 Betfair 54 30/01/10 L1 Le Mans Toulouse Away HT 2.42 4.1 Betfair 55 30/01/10 L1 Nancy Lorient Home HT 2.42 3.5 Betfair 56 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona Lay Away HT 2.42 1.69 Betfair 57 30/01/10 PD La Coruna Real Madrid Home HT 2.42 5 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 31, 2010 Author Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Im sorry that it takes so long to post yesterdays results, but im not at my main pc at the moment and therefore do not have access to my excel sheet with the results. I will post them as soon as possible. My selections for today have to be posted manually for the same reason. The stake for each selection is 2.42 points. 58) Stuttgart vs Dortmund Dortmund HT 4.3@Betfair 59) Man City vs Portsmouth Portsmouth HT 10.86@Betfair 60) Arsenal vs Man United Arsenal HT 3.4@Betfair 61) Cagliari vs Florenz Cagliari HT 3.3@Betfair 62) Chievo vs Bologna Chievo HT 2.84@Betfair 63) Sampdoria vs Atalanta Sampdoria HT 2.8@Betfair 64) Auxerre vs St Etienne Auxerre HT 2.74@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Half Time Result A really bad weekend with a loss of 10 points. Hopefully it does not go on like this. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 48 20 / 48 127.64 26%49 30/01/10 BL Gladbach Bremen Home HT 2.42 4.8 Betfair W 8.74 21 / 49 136.38 34% 50 30/01/10 BL Frankfurt Köln Home HT 2.42 2.92 Betfair L -2.42 21 / 50 133.96 31% 51 30/01/10 PL Fulham Aston Villa Home HT 2.42 3.85 Betfair L -2.42 21 / 51 131.54 28% 52 30/01/10 PL Wigan Everton Home HT 2.42 4.4 Betfair L -2.42 21 / 52 129.12 26% 53 30/01/10 BL Schalke Hoffenheim Lay Away HT 2.43 5.8 Betfair W 0.48 22 / 53 129.6 25% 54 30/01/10 L1 Le Mans Toulouse Away HT 2.42 4.1 Betfair L -2.42 22 / 54 127.18 23% 55 30/01/10 L1 Nancy Lorient Home HT 2.42 3.5 Betfair W 5.75 23 / 55 132.92 27% 56 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona Lay Away HT 2.42 1.69 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 56 130.5 25% 57 30/01/10 PD La Coruna Real Madrid Home HT 2.42 5 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 57 128.08 22% 58 31/01/10 BL Stuttgart Dortmund Away HT 2.42 4.3 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 58 125.66 20% 59 31/01/10 PL Man City Portsmouth Away HT 2.42 10.86 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 59 123.24 18% 60 31/01/10 PL Arsenal Man United Home HT 2.42 3.4 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 60 120.82 16% 61 31/01/10 SA Cagliari Fiorentina Home HT 2.42 3.3 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 61 118.4 14% 62 31/01/10 SA Chievo Bologna Home HT 2.42 2.84 Betfair L -2.42 23 / 62 115.98 12% 63 31/01/10 SA Sampdoria Atalanta Home HT 2.42 2.8 Betfair W 4.14 24 / 63 120.12 14% 64 31/01/10 L1 Auxerre St Etienne Home HT 2.42 2.74 Betfair L -2.42 24 / 64 117.7 12% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Half Time Result I think a lot of people (including myself) had a bad weekend :wall. The "ups and downs" are all part of the game..... don't lose heart :ok BTW, I like the format of your table..... seems familiar, somehow ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Results this weekend in the major league were somewhat strange, i.e. 12 of 27 games in Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A ended in a draw. That's then naturally a bad week for systems that only pick winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Thanks for the support, mates. BTW, I like the format of your table..... seems familiar, somehow ;) Good eye, Grex. I took your tables as an inspiration to create mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Half Time Result With a bank below 121 points, we are again in the 2.2-pts-stake-land. But im sure Stoke comes out strong tonight and leads us back into the much more beautiful region that we have just left. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 63 31/01/10 SA Sampdoria Atalanta Home HT 2.42 2.8 Betfair W 4.14 24 / 63 120.12 14% 64 31/01/10 L1 Auxerre St Etienne Home HT 2.42 2.74 Betfair L -2.42 24 / 64 117.7 12% 65 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke Away HT 2.2 4.8 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 2, 2010 Author Share Posted February 2, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Another loss is added to the awful weekend. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 63 31/01/10 SA Sampdoria Atalanta Home HT 2.42 2.8 Betfair W 4.14 24 / 63 120.12 14% 64 31/01/10 L1 Auxerre St Etienne Home HT 2.42 2.74 Betfair L -2.42 24 / 64 117.7 12% 65 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke Away HT 2.2 4.8 Betfair L -2.2 24 / 65 115.5 11% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Just before the start of the game, my bet was accepted. Unfortunately, i have to post it manually again. Liability is 2.2 points. 66) Bremen vs Hertha Lay Bremen HT 1.98@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 6, 2010 Author Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Yesterdays bet is a winner for a small profit. Together with the result of it i post my selections for todays afternoon matches. No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield66 05/02/10 BL Bremen Hertha Lay Home HT 2.2 1.98 Betfair W 2.14 25 / 66 117.63 12% 67 06/02/10 PL Liverpool Everton Home HT 2.2 2.78 Betfair 68 06/02/10 BL Wolfsburg Bayern Lay Away HT 2.2 2.38 Betfair 69 06/02/10 BL Köln Hamburg Home HT 2.2 4.8 Betfair 70 06/02/10 BL Bochum Leverkusen Home HT 2.2 6.2 Betfair 71 06/02/10 PL Hull Man City Home HT 2.2 5.8 Betfair 72 06/02/10 PL Man United Portsmouth Lay Home HT 2.2 1.49 Betfair 73 06/02/10 PL Stoke Blackburn Home HT 2.2 3.2 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 9, 2010 Author Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Sadly, i have to stop this project at this stage. I will be busy the next weeks and do not have the time to go on with my system. Here are the last results: No Date Lge Home Away Selection Stake/ Liab. Odds Bookie Res W/L Str Rate Bank Yield 67 06/02/10 PL Liverpool Everton Home HT 2.2 2.78 Betfair L -2.2 25 / 67 115.43 10% 68 06/02/10 BL Wolfsburg Bayern Lay Away HT 2.2 2.38 Betfair L -2.2 25 / 68 113.23 9% 69 06/02/10 BL Köln Hamburg Home HT 2.2 4.8 Betfair L -2.2 25 / 69 111.03 7% 70 06/02/10 BL Bochum Leverkusen Home HT 2.2 6.2 Betfair L -2.2 25 / 70 108.83 6% 71 06/02/10 PL Hull Man City Home HT 2.2 5.8 Betfair W 10.03 26 / 71 118.86 12% 72 06/02/10 PL Man United Portsmouth Lay Home HT 2.2 1.49 Betfair L -2.2 26 / 72 116.66 10% 73 06/02/10 PL Stoke Blackburn Home HT 2.2 3.2 Betfair W 4.6 27 / 73 121.26 13% We end this system with a profit of 21.61 points and a yield of 13% over 73 bets. Not bad at all. Good luck to all of you with your future bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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