BeXXs Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Hello everyone, ive read a bit in this forum, but never posted before. So first of all, i would like to say hello to all of you. I have developed a system for the halftime result market that id like to present here. Bet selection: I compute a succes rate (SR) for each team based on their last 32 games in the league. To do this, i count every win as 1 point, every draw as 0.5 points and every loss as 0 points. Furthermore i weight the last 10 games with about 1/2, the last 11 to 21 games with about 1/3 and the last 22 to 32 games with about 1/6. Then i compute a game rating (GR) using the SR of the two involved teams. I have analysed the seasons 9394-0809 in Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A and Ligue 1 to see how the GR is related to the half time result. This gives me my probabilities for a half time home win, draw or away win for every GR. I place a bet if i can get a valuefactor of 1.1, meaning that my probability times the odds needs to be over 1.1. I only place bets in the leagues mentioned above. Promoted teams are not part of this system since it is more complicated to compute their SR. Backtesting: I have backtested this system with the games played since the start of this season until new year. I would have reached a yield of 15% with a constant stake on each bet, but i guess its much variance in this. My estimation is that a yield of 3-5% is realistic. Staking plan: I consider the intervals ...-83-91-100-110-121-133-146-161-... (the next number is 1.1 times the previous one). I always bet 2% of the lower bound of the interval my current bank is in, starting with a bank of 100 pts. When two outcomes in a match represent value, i will lay the third one with an amount that risks the specific number of points. EDIT: On all selections up to 28) i have bet 2 pts. Paper trial/real money: I will spend real money on this. Progress (04/02/10): bets: 65 av. odds: 3.02 expected strike rate: 21.5/65 achieved strike rate: 24/65 staked: 145.4 pts starting bank: 100 pts current bank: 115.50 pts profit: 15.50 pts yield: 11 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result All comments are welcome. Id especially like to hear your opinions on the weight of the games in the computation of the SR as well as on the staking plan (since i havent put much thought into the staking plan at all). Lets hope it works out well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Heres the first bet: Game Selection odds 1) Stoke vs Fulham Stoke HT 3.75@betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Let Us Have First 10 Selection B/4 Comments, Nice Ideal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result I dont know alot about football, but you seem to have put alot of effort into this, so I hope it works out for you. I will be watching with interest :) Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puntteri Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Good luck! Instead of a flat stake of 2 units I would suggest a progressive stake of 1% of the bank. Fortunately you have tested already your picks so you can easily test what affect this stake would had done to your bank. Of course you can also play around with other stakes, such as 2 % which you already had as a starting stake. I am not nerd enough to say if your weighting system is right or wrong, but because in all of these leagues mentioned there are way more teams than 10 it might give a wrong impression of some teams if they have happened to have easy or difficult fixtures lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Thanks for the support guys. Instead of a flat stake of 2 units I would suggest a progressive stake of 1% of the bank. Fortunately you have tested already your picks so you can easily test what affect this stake would had done to your bank. I will test this in the near future and possibly change my staking plan. I am not nerd enough to say if your weighting system is right or wrong, but because in all of these leagues mentioned there are way more teams than 10 it might give a wrong impression of some teams if they have happened to have easy or difficult fixtures lately.Ive thought about this, too. But you will always have this problem, no matter how many games you look at, dont you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Off to a flyer! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Good luck with this, BeXXs :hope...... as Pip said, your first selection strolled home at half-time :clap As a matter of interest, did you manage to get consistent results from the Bundesliga.... with the various rating systems I have tried, I gave up trying to make any sense out of the German league.... it was totally unpredictable :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Best of luck BeXXs. Is there any reason in particular why you have decided to place bets on the Half Time result instead of the Full Time result? Or did you just want to do something different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puntteri Posted January 6, 2010 Share Posted January 6, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Thanks for the support guys. I will test this in the near future and possibly change my staking plan. Ive thought about this, too. But you will always have this problem, no matter how many games you look at, dont you? Yes, you do. Like I said I have no better alternative to suggest, it is just good to have that in mind. In general, is "good form" really good form or pure luck and a favourable fixture list? It requires manual adjustment, and then it is not a system any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 6, 2010 Author Share Posted January 6, 2010 Re: Half Time Result As a matter of interest, did you manage to get consistent results from the Bundesliga.... with the various rating systems I have tried, I gave up trying to make any sense out of the German league.... it was totally unpredictable :\ In the Bundesliga alone my system would have lossed 3.21 pts in 46 selections with 1 pt bet on each selection. This confirms your statement, but in 46 bets it could just be variance as well. Is there any reason in particular why you have decided to place bets on the Half Time result instead of the Full Time result? Or did you just want to do something different? The more money is placed in a market, the more effort the bookies will put into this market. Therefore i think it is easier to find wrong odds in side markets where not that much money is placed. I am working on systems on side markets like "Team X to score in both halves", "Both Teams to score" or "Team X does not concede" as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 6, 2010 Author Share Posted January 6, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Stoke won the first half 3-0, so bet 1 earns us 5.22 pts (including betfair commission) :clap I will update the progress in the first post regularly. Can someone pls tell me how i can put a table here? That would make the progress much more readable. 1) Stoke vs Fulham Stoke HT 3.75@betfair:nana +5.22 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 6, 2010 Author Share Posted January 6, 2010 Re: Half Time Result In todays game (Arsenal vs Bolton) both Draw HT and Bolton HT represent value according to the system. Therefore i will lay Arsenal HT with an amount that risks 2 pts. Since most of the time the odds on the favourite drop close to the start of the game, i will wait a bit to place this bet. EDIT: I totally missed that Serie A played today, and their last game Milan vs Genua has no value in it. Since the Arsenal match was postponed, there is no bet for me today. I am looking forward to saturday to place a few more bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 6, 2010 Share Posted January 6, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Can someone pls tell me how i can put a table here? That would make the progress much more readable.... Always a problem..... put your table in Excel and then copy and paste using Windows Internet Explorer (not Firefox). Looking forward to more selections.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 9, 2010 Author Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Here is the first bet for today, more will follow later. Game Selection Odds 2) Arsenal vs Everton Everton HT 9@Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 9, 2010 Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Wow that's an audacious bet! Good luck on that one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 9, 2010 Author Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Wow that's an audacious bet! Good luck on that one! Thanks mate. My system computed a probability of 14% for Everton leading at HT, accordingly its a value bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 9, 2010 Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Half Time Result 1-1 at HT. I almost thought you would pull this off though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 9, 2010 Author Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Two more bets this evening. In the Inter vs Siena match, both Draw HT and Siena HT present value due to my system. Therefore i lay Inter HT with an amount that risk 2pt. Game selection odds 3) Inter vs Siena Lay Inter HT 1.65@Betfair 4) Villareal vs Almeria Almeria HT 8@Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Half Time Result 1 of 3 yesterday. No profit, but a good strike rate at these odds. 2) Arsenal vs Everton Everton HT 9@Bet365 :@ -2 pts 3) Inter vs Siena Lay Inter HT 1.65@Betfair :loon +2.93 pts 4) Villareal vs Almeria Almeria HT 8@Bet365 :@ -2 pts av. odds: 4.35 strike rate: 2/4 current bank: 104.15 pts profit: 4.15 pts yield: 52 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Half Time Result 2 bets on the afternoon games in Serie A. game selection odds 5) Genua vs Catania Genua HT 2.5@Bet365 6) Udinese vs Lazio Udinese HT 2.95@Expekt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Half Time Result and 3 more bets for the rest of the day. Game selection odds 7) Gijon vs Getafe Gijon HT 2.9@Betfair 8) La Coruna vs Osasuna La Coruna HT 2.94@Betfair 9) Juventus vs Milan Juventus HT 3.35@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Half Time Result 2 of 5 today for a good profit. With average odds of 3.02, the strike rate is above the expectation again. I realize that i have given wrong odds for the Gijon vs Getafe match. I stated them as 2.9, but in fact they were 3.6. I will add a screenshot to prove this if someone can tell me how to do it. 5) Genua vs Catania Genua HT 2.5@Bet365 :loon +3 pts 6) Udinese vs Lazio Udinese HT 2.95@Expekt :@ - 2pts 7) Gijon vs Getafe Gijon HT 3.6@Betfair :loon +4.94 pts 8) La Coruna vs Osasuna La Coruna HT 2.94@Betfair :@ - 2pts 9) Juventus vs Milan Juventus HT 3.35@Betfair :@ - 2 pts av. odds: 3.53 strike rate: 4/9 current bank: 106.09 pts profit: 6.09 pts yield: 34 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Your profit should be 6.09 pts instead of 4.61 pts. So far so good, looks to be a good and consistent system to me! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 11, 2010 Author Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Your profit should be 6.09 pts instead of 4.61 pts. So far so good, looks to be a good and consistent system to me! :clap Thanks for pointing this out, ive adjusted the profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 16, 2010 Author Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Half Time Result First bet for today: 10) Stoke vs Liverpool Stoke HT 4.7@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 16, 2010 Author Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Four more bets in Bundesliga and Premier League: 11) Frankfurt vs Bremen Lay Bremen HT 2.74@Betfair 12) Hannover vs Hertha Hannover HT 3.05@Betfair 13) Chelsea vs Sunderland Lay Chelsea HT 1.67@Betfair 14) Tottenham vs Hull Lay Tottenham HT 1.73@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 16, 2010 Author Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Half Time Result 6 more evening bets 15) Bilbao vs Real Lay Real HT 2.32@Betfair 16) Barcelona vs Sevilla Sevilla HT 9@BWin 17) Nancy vs Lyon Nancy HT 5@Betfair 18) Valenciennes vs Toulouse Valenciennes HT 3.3@Betfair 19) Grenoble vs St Etienne Grenoble HT 3.5@Betfair 20) Lille vs Paris Lille HT 2.76@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Half Time Result Serie A afternoon games: 21) Chievo vs Juventus Chievo HT 4.8@Betfair 20) Fiorentina vs Bologna Bologna HT 8.4@Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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