dannkez2407 Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 46 selections, 17.89% yield and with 2 mins left im confident to post the results of this one sheff utd - win @ 1.81 - :lol +8.1 total stake = 470 total profit = +90.4 total yield = 19.23% strike rate = 29/47 = 61.7% back to winning ways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Nice one Dan me old mate... back to winning ways :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield wednesday selection hearts - win @ 2.18 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Nice one Dan me old mate... back to winning ways :clap and long may it continue fella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Hi there. Discovered this place accidentally and I love it! Just wanted to say that I've read this thread from page 1 and am getting involved as of tomorrow night. Hope I don't jinx you, I probably am the world's unluckiest punter! :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MedimeX Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Back to winning ways:clap :welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Hi there. Discovered this place accidentally and I love it! Just wanted to say that I've read this thread from page 1 and am getting involved as of tomorrow night. Hope I don't jinx you, I probably am the world's unluckiest punter! :cry :welcomemy friend, sit back and enjoy the ride, no one jinxes me but myself LOL, so hope i make you some money along the way. if youre in to horses aswell, there is some great tips on that forum section aswell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Back to winning ways:clap :welcome :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Told you I was a jinx, mate......sorry...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Told you I was a jinx' date=' mate......sorry......[/quote'] LOL no worries mate, theres still life in her yet hearts - win @ 2.18 - :@-10 total stake = 480 total profit = +80.4 total yield = 16.75% strike rate = 29/48 = 60.42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield Come on Dan - pull yourself together eh :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield ha ha! We will be back to normal soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield I dunno mate, I don't know if you've ever met an unluckier punter than me! If I backed it being Thursday tomorrow it'd be Monday. I quite like the look of that laying the correct score system that the author vanished from...might curse that as well... :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MedimeX Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield I quite like the look of that laying the correct score system that the author vanished from...might curse that as well... :\ Can't be any worse than me:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield With me following this thread, it has a success rate of 0.00%! Reading it from the start though it sounds like Dan knows his stuff....I've been trying different things out for years with football bets...sometimes they start off well and I think I've cracked it....and it soon goes tits up. Sometimes they never get off the ground, despite looking good on paper. This is the first time I've ever joined a betting forum and looking forward to reading other people's ideas etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield With me following this thread, it has a success rate of 0.00%! Reading it from the start though it sounds like Dan knows his stuff....I've been trying different things out for years with football bets...sometimes they start off well and I think I've cracked it....and it soon goes tits up. Sometimes they never get off the ground, despite looking good on paper. This is the first time I've ever joined a betting forum and looking forward to reading other people's ideas etc. If i could ever give one piece of advice, it would be trial your system without money first. i would always give up when the losing run hit in, but if you are not putting your own money down you have no need to quit the system, trust me you soon learn how and when the good runs will come back in. A second piece of advice actually :lol, value bets are key!!!! take this system for example, if i believed a team had a 50% chance of winning a match (based on form, h2h and other websites knowledge), then the true value odds for that team is 2.0 (evens). If you can obtain odds greater than that you have obtained value. Statistically the probability factors are correct and if it says 50%, then half of these types of games are winners. So then it doesnt take a brain surgeon to realise that if you obtain value odds, you will overtime generate profit. It does not matter how many teams lose, the probability factor will always ride accurately, and seeing as it does and you have obtained value odds, you will generate profit. Once you have proven the system, its then on to the staking plan....:) and with this system, that will come at the end of this domestic season... apologies if i taught anyone how to suck eggs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 47 selections, 19.23% yield No, not at all, mate! I've been betting on football since I was 18 and it's always possible to learn. If you shut yourself off and stop being open to other people's suggestions then you'll get nowhere. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield friday selection hamburg - win @ 1.88 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield saturday crystal palace - win @ 1.85 east fife - win @ 1.87 there may be more to follow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield more for saturday napoli - win @ 1.97 sunday catania - win @ 2.36 (nice) auxerre - win @ 1.93 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield apologies but ill only be able to post domestic and major european premier leagues in future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield apologies but ill only be able to post domestic and major european premier leagues in future Why's that then Dan... lack of time? Lack of stats? How do you feel this will affect your strike rates etc. Were the "lower" leagues a better or worse strike rate? Cheers mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield lack of time more than anything mate, got an earful from the missus last night for spending hours on end on here :lol so the domestic and major eurpoean leagues tend to have odds available earlier and i get them doen before i go home :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield so the domestic and major eurpoean leagues tend to have odds available earlier and i get them doen before i go home :dude Ahh, I see... know what you mean. Just make sure you delete your internet history on the works pc each time you log out, there's a good chap :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield hamburg - win @ 1.88 - :@ -10 total stake = 490 total profit = +70.4 total yield = 14.37% strike rate = 29/49 = 59.18% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 48 selections, 16.75% yield saturday crystal palace - win @ 1.85 east fife - win @ 1.87 there may be more to follow One winner and one postponed so i'm happy with that :clap C'mon Napoli Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 31, 2010 Author Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 49 selections, 14.37% yield crystal palace - win @ 1.85 - :lol +8.5 east fife - win @ 1.87 - postponed napoli - win @ 1.97 - :@ -10 total stake = 510 total profit = +68.9 total yield = 13.51% strike rate = 30/51 = 58.82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 31, 2010 Author Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 49 selections, 14.37% yield ok so i think this is a perfect time to do a review and a little change around. before the system concentrated on teams rated at a 50% chance or more of winning the game, finding value of these games that met an odds criteria between 1.8 and 2.4. seeing as the idea of this system is to find value, im going to change it so that if a team has 15% or more greater chance of the result than the other 2 possibilities, eg arsenal v man u 1x2 50%, 15%, 35% this would be a selection of arsenal as the its 15% greater than the chances of the win for man u, but...the odds would need to be above 2.0 (100/50%) if the %'s read 45%, 10%, 45%, this would not be a selection, hope this makes sense. now on to the staking plan, to make this work properly, you need a decent staking plan rather than level stakes, so from now i will run an individual staking plan bank. This will start at 1000pts, the stake will be the division of 2% of the bank divided by the true odds, by this i mean - the betfair odds x 0.95 to rectify the commission removed. Now taking this in to account, this has pulled up one further selection for today - Dortmund - win 6.1pts @ 3.45 The 6.1 was calculated by multiplying 3.45 by 0.95 = 3.28 Then the division of 2% of the bank by this - 20/3.28 = 6.1 This should in the long term help to contain the bank by backing more on the more likelier of winners and less on those not considered more likely. One last thing....if the bank should get higher, than the new stake will continue to rise, but should it drop back down on a losing run, the stake on the other hand will not. ie. the new bank sits at 1100pts, stake division would now be 22, should the bank go in to a bad run, the stake division will sit at 22 until the bank rekindles itself and rises higher. any questions please ask.... so....ill run level stakes to calculate the yield as per normal but also add a staking plan bank to see how it pans out, this will look like Current bank = 1000pts 2% of this = 20pts Total profit/loss = 0pts Total staked = 0pts Staking plan yield = 0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 31, 2010 Author Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 49 selections, 14.37% yield for the new staking plans benefit, the two original selections stakes would be catania - 8.93pts Auxerre - 11.11pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MedimeX Posted January 31, 2010 Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: Value in 1x2; 49 selections, 14.37% yield This should in the long term help to contain the bank by backing more on the more likelier of winners and less on those not considered more likely. Dan, all the best with your new staking plan...hope it works out :ok Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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