1qmike Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Here are the results for Sunday: [new]6F7ATG , 112$ - [-60$] - [-53%]:wall [new]6F7ATG 10W-9L-[52.60% STRIKE] [new]5F5 , 100$ - [-58$] - [-52%] :wall [new]5F5 8W-7L-[53.33% STRIKE] 3F5 , 98$ - [-40$] - [-41%] :wall 3F5 8W-7L-[53.33% STRIKE] [new]5F7ATG , 105$ - [-56$] - [-53%] :wall [new]5F7ATG 7W-7L-[50.00% STRIKE] [new]BF5 , 92$ - [-37$] - [-40%] :wall [new]BF5 8W-7L-[53.3% STRIKE] :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I go analyze what's the problem :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Betting only Home games, because i saw many Away games lost.. Saturday+Sunday [by Strike Rate:] 6F6 W=20 L=11 [sTRIKE RATE 64.50%] betting kelly 207$ - 38$ - +18% BF6 W=17 L=10 [sTRIKE RATE 63%] betting kelly 160$ - 30$ - +19% 3F6 W=18 L=11 [sTRIKE RATE 62.10%] betting kelly 170$ - 31$ - +18% 3F5 W=19 L=12 [sTRIKE RATE 61.30%] betting kelly 170$ - 30$ - +15% 5F8 W=20 L=12 [sTRIKE RATE 62.50%] betting kelly 175$ - 24$ - +14% I go to college, after i come back i want to test it in betting only away games...maybe is a system that's; works in away bets and not in home bets. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor OVERALL ALL DAYS, 2F5 SHOWED SOME GOOD RESULTS. I WILL TEST IT TODAY. Until now..that started allready 0-0 both Vitkovice - Hlucin Hlucin +0.25 Vasas - Debreceni VSC Vasas +0.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Let's see how works on today.. Vitkovice - Hlucin Hlucin +0.25 Vasas - Debreceni VSC Vasas +0.50 Omniworld - Roosendaal Roosendaal 0 Galway - Derry City Derry City -0.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Let's see how works on today.. Vitkovice - Hlucin Hlucin +0.25 Vasas - Debreceni VSC Vasas +0.50 Omniworld - Roosendaal Roosendaal 0 Galway - Derry City Derry City -0.5 :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I am not so happy with results until now, maybe i want to much maybe i don't know. I am am kinda' busy next 2-3 hours, i saved today games in my pc... Later:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Conf 13: HJK Helsinki - Jaro @1.80 [ -1.5 : +1.5 ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Now let's wait and see how many i hit from 6. I want 4 for 6 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Conf 28: Rapid Bucharest - CFR Cluj @1.95 [ -0.25 : +0.25 ] Conf 19: Mattersburg - LASK Linz @1.80 [ 0 : 0 ] Conf 13: HJK Helsinki - Jaro @1.80 [ -1.5 : +1.5 ] Conf 11: Ascoli – Torino @1.93 [ +0.25 : -0.25 ] Conf 9: Rostock – Paderborn @1.90 [ -0.5 : +0.5 ] Conf 8: Scunthorpe - Sheffield Utd @1.85 [ +0.25 : -0.25 ] :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 17, 2009 Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Congratulations, iqmike..... you got your 4 out of 6 :clap. But, as I have said before, I am not really sure where you are going. For my simple brain, your posts don't really tell us how you are developing your system(s). For example, your latest selections introduced a "confidence meter"..... based on what?..... should the size of the stake reflect your "confidence"? Anyway, you are obviously putting a lot of work into this, and I'm sure it will pay dividends in the end. Good luck:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I read 2 pages and was lost! Can't help thinking old fashioned ratings are best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Hello both, and thanks for post. Grex, confidence meter was (% of all my systems based on 2F5 AND 3F5 in my last posts think that game is value * (median value of all systems) ) I will post again in few minutes, because i must analyze complete yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor 1)First i made let's say systems... A B C D E F G H i saw B C work good 2)I made B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 i saw B2 C3 works good 3)than i made B21 B22 B23 C31 C32 C33 This where i am at the moment, at step 3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I will post today picks, like yesterday..without stake or something. just picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Ok..Let's get some good results today too:hope Shakhtyor Soligorsk v FC BATE Borisov - (0)FC BATE Borisov @1.70 SK Kladno v SK Slavia Praha – (+0.5)SK Kladno @1.91 Blackburn Rovers v Burnley – (-0.75)Blackburn Rovers @1.96 AS Monaco v RC Lens – (-0.75)AS Monaco @2.01 FC Toulouse v Paris Saint-Germain FC – (0)FC Toulouse @1.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor So without stakes now, how can you show your profit/loss? Or is this more a public test rather than a dedicated system? I am just trying to understand where you are coming from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Ok...Using this method for stacking [ Value * Chance of winning game * [CONSTANT NUMBER FOR HIGHER STAKE] ] yesterday + last weekend: SPECIAL SYSTEM STAKED PROFIT $ 90.81 $ 46.75 51% 13 3 81% And more details are this for yesterday: € 19.39 Mattersburg SV Mattersburg SV W € 4.61 Rostock Rostock L € 5.11 München 1860 München 1860 W € 10.86 AC Torino AC Torino W € 2.07 Heerenveen Heerenveen W € 11.49 Rapid Bucureşti Rapid Bucureşti L € 3.30 Jaro Jakobstad Jaro Jakobstad W € 2.24 Gorica Nova Gorica Gorica Nova Gorica W € 1.54 Smorgon FC Smorgon FC W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor As you can see i like more the winning strike of this system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Yesterday Full Details with custom kelly. (Value*Constant*Chance to win the game) BUT I WILL NOT USE THIS METHOD, just keep track of it. I will tell you why i don't want to use it. € 7.53 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov W € 3.77 Kladno SK Kladno SK L € 17.03 Blackburn Blackburn WHALF € 3.31 Monaco Monaco W € 2.24 Toulouse Toulouse W € 6.15 Stuttgart (Am) Stuttgart (Am) W € 2.31 Skive Skive W € 8.25 Angelholms Angelholms W Ok.Here is my explication. If yesterday i would have lost Blackburn, i would have only had a profit of 10% with an Strike Rate of 75%. That's why i don't want to use this method... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Monday BET: Union Berlin ( -0.25 ) vs Greuther Furth , @1.85 Good luck to me :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Monday BET: Union Berlin ( -0.25 ) vs Greuther Furth , @1.85 :wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 20, 2009 Author Share Posted October 20, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor i am thinking of rising up the white flag ... i am lost in numbers ... can't waste more time on something based on luck.. :( don't know...i need some time:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 21, 2009 Author Share Posted October 21, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I work on something big. Very big. It will take me so much time, but i have this ideea and i will start develop it today. I think i can make it in 24h of work. I WILL BE BACK.................STRONGER:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 21, 2009 Author Share Posted October 21, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I did like 40-50% of work... My excel file is 150mb :) I'll work a hour more and i'll continue tomorrow... Later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 22, 2009 Author Share Posted October 22, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Still developing...my EXCEL is 250mb :rollin:rollin:rollin I still have a couple of hours of work and it's ready:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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