loocie Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Hello, I want to share my lay selections on horse races. I lay false favourites, that means I am laying horses where I think the price is wrong. There will be 10-20 selections per month. Today’s selections: 2009-09-16 14:20 Sand DRIFT AND DREAM NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 16, 2009 Author Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, I want to share my lay selections on horse races. I lay false favourites, that means I am laying horses where I think the price is wrong. There will be 10-20 selections per month. Today’s selections: 2009-09-16 14:20 Sand DRIFT AND DREAM NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection. Cheers, Loocie :nana DRIFT AND DREAM finished 2nd. Betfair Starting Price was 4.8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 17, 2009 Author Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Today no selections. To get more information on how the system performs I will keep records of a bank of 100 points. All bets are placed on Betfair when I post them here in the thread. Many of the selection will have a bigger Betfair starting price than the early price. I will use a liability of 5% of the bank per selection. The liability will be raised at the start of every month. For example if I start with 100 points and make 10 points profit a month, then I will use a liability of 5.5 points the next month per selection. Stats: Won/Loss: 1/0 Strike rate: 100% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 101.28 points Current liability per selection: 5 points Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, todays selection: 2009-09-18 15:40 Newm ROBINSON CRUSO Lay at 4.5 Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, todays selection: :nana 2009-09-18 15:40 Newm ROBINSON CRUSO Lay at 4.5 finshed 6th. Profit: +1.36 points Cheers, Loocie Stats: Won/Loss: 2/0 Strike rate: 100% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 102.64 points Current liability per selection: 5 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites I am out for the weekend, so no selections on Saturday and Sunday! Enjoy the weekend! Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today's selection: 2009-09-23 15:00 Perth BEIDH TINE ANSEO Lay at 3.55 (Betfair) Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today's selection: :clap 2009-09-23 15:00 Perth BEIDH TINE ANSEO Lay at 3.55 (Betfair) finished 5th. +1.96 Cheers, Loocie Stats: Won/Loss: 3/0 Strike rate: 100% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 104.50 points Current liability per selection: 5 points Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Patience is the key. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today no selections. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: 2009-10-01 14:35 Newm BRANNAGH Lay @4.4 on Betfair Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: :clap 2009-10-01 14:35 Newm BRANNAGH Lay @4.4 on Betfair finished 3rd. Staked: 1.54 Liability: 5.25 PL: 1.47 Cheers, Loocie Stats: Won/Loss: 4/0 Strike rate: 100% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 105.97 points Current liability per selection: 5.25 points Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites A good start Loocie, what is your strike rate in paper trails? or expected stike rate? Keep up the good work ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hi Otter4, I am laying only below or equal 5.0, so I need a strike rate greater than 80%. My actual strike rate is 85%. Average lay odds is 3.7. Generally the early odds are lower than Betfair Starting Price, so it is much better to take the early odds. Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: 2009-10-02 13:25 Newm TABASSUM [email protected] on Betfair Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: :@ 2009-10-02 13:25 Newm TABASSUM [email protected] on Betfair won the race. Staked: 2.63 Liability: 5.25 PL: -5.25 Cheers, Loocie There was a non runner, so the odds have been reduced to 2.5. For easier calculation I will calculate this race as a loser with -5.25. Stats: Won/Loss: 4/1 Strike rate: 80% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 100.72 points Current liability per selection: 5.25 points Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: No selection Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: No selection Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: No selection Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 6, 2009 Author Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: No selection Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today's selections: 2009-10-07 15:20 Extr ORCHARD KING Lay @4.8 on Betfair 2009-10-07 16:20 Extr COOL FRIEND Lay @2.28 on Betfair Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Today's selections: :clap 2009-10-07 15:20 Extr ORCHARD KING Lay @4.8 on Betfair finished 5th PL: +1.31 :@ 2009-10-07 16:20 Extr COOL FRIEND Lay @2.28 on Betfair won the race PL: -4.52 Cheers, Loocie Three non runner in the first race and two non runner in the 2nd race, so the odds have been reduced by Betfair. Stats: Won/Loss: 5/2 Strike rate: 71.40% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 97.87 points Current liability per selection: 5.25 points Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 8, 2009 Author Share Posted October 8, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: No selection Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loocie Posted October 9, 2009 Author Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Laying False Favourites Hello, Todays selection: No selection Cheers, Loocie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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