Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 I've been thinking about this for a bit, but haven't really ever tried it. Say, for example, a match is tied and is nearing around the 75th minute. Now say you're watching the match and 1 team in particular is playing well (especially the non-fav for an odds against bet). Would a system of backing that team who's playing well in a DNB market, in the hope that they do find a late goal, seem like a profitable strategy? I said 75th minute, but the original plan was to leave it nearer the 82nd - 85th minute (before the market closes down). The thought came to me when I was watching a Silkeborg game (I think) a few days ago and they were odds against DNB, which looked good value considering they were bossing the game and constantly on the attack, while the other side had seemingly sat back to play for the draw in the final minutes. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Hmmmm... teams who are close to score the goal get nervous if they don't succeed to score, and that increases as the game closes to finish; so, instead of scoring a goal, they can often concede a goal; if you feel the goal is in the air, then you better back next goal line, that's what I sometimes do; I mean, if there is already 1 goal in the match, back over 1.5 goals; odds are close to evens in time you mentioned, 10 to 15 minutes to end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Yes, but if there isn't a goal you lose your stake. The DNB system means you get your stake back, which is the lynch pin to the whole thing in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Yep, you're right, I didn't think about that.. You should test your system in 20 to 30 matches, to see if it really works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System I would, but I doubt I could be arsed finding 20 odd matches to watch to test it. :D I'll have a low stakes crack at it if I see the opportunity. I watch football for a living, so it shouldn't be too long until the right situation arises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System £2 on Pierikos (home to Panetolikos). 75th minute. 4/9. Bit of a blind bet for the first few, so just picking favs that have the stats to back it up (as if I was making a pre-match bet). £2 on Maccabi Ironi (home to Sektzia). 75th minute. 4/9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitalyo Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Congrats on Pierikos 88th min 1:0 94th 2:0 :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Good luck, nice start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System :D Cheers. The Israeli game finished 0-0. So far, so good. Of course this blind betting isn't really a great way of trying this system. I'll hopefully try it out tomorrow when I'm at work, since I'll have access to all live football there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System A proper test of the system. £20 on Falkirk at 11/10. 83rd minute. Falkirk hit the bar in the 84th minute. :( EDIT: May have been Aberdeen actually. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Ended 0-0. Stake returned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Just a little tip for you: do not edit posts containing selections. If you need to change anything, qoute the post instead :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 15, 2009 Author Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Fair enough. Other forums I post on usually want the opposite, due to "post boosting". But I suppose the nature of this forum dictates otherwise! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 15, 2009 Author Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Apologies for the after eventing, but I can't really post of forums of this nature at work. Had a go at the system again tonight on Padova vs Piacenza. Took Padova at 4/9 on 80 mins with my maximum singles stake, and although they went close in the final 10 minutes, they couldn't find a goal. It was clear that Piacenza weren't going to win it, bar a fluke goal. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Apologies for the after eventing' date=' but I can't really post of forums of this nature at work. Had a go at the system again tonight on Padova vs Piacenza. Took Padova at 4/9 on 80 mins with my maximum singles stake, and although they went close in the final 10 minutes, they couldn't find a goal. It was clear that Piacenza weren't going to win it, bar a fluke goal. :([/quote'] Not that i don't thrust you, since you're justing testing this, but few screenshots would do the job.Than people would take you a lot more serious. ;) Anyway, i'm a big fan of livebetting, if you understand the game well, and if youre focused you can have much use. Personally, i fancy over bets after first 10 mins. You have my attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitalyo Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System Not that i don't thrust you, since you're justing testing this, but few screenshots would do the job.Than people would take you a lot more serious. ;) Anyway, i'm a big fan of livebetting, if you understand the game well, and if youre focused you can have much use. Personally, i fancy over bets after first 10 mins. You have my attention. Yes screen shots help . How ever . The guy is been honest . And i was fallowing his bets live . If you noticed i congat him before he made a post that he won ! Since he is betting few $ and not claiming huge profits . I am OK with this .The other problem with screen shots, he is betting live with 5 min left in the game .The last thing he is worry IS for you to see the screen shots. There is enough brains on this forum to figure out on who is for real and who is Bulls..ter. Keep up a good work . And GL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menthol Posted September 17, 2009 Author Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System I suppose I can always screen shot a bet if it comes off. This is purely just trying to take advantage of live betting opportunities, and testing a system, rather than to record fantastic profits and show off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borntorun Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System I've been thinking about this for a bit, but haven't really ever tried it. Say, for example, a match is tied and is nearing around the 75th minute. Now say you're watching the match and 1 team in particular is playing well (especially the non-fav for an odds against bet). Would a system of backing that team who's playing well in a DNB market, in the hope that they do find a late goal, seem like a profitable strategy? I said 75th minute, but the original plan was to leave it nearer the 82nd - 85th minute (before the market closes down). The thought came to me when I was watching a Silkeborg game (I think) a few days ago and they were odds against DNB, which looked good value considering they were bossing the game and constantly on the attack, while the other side had seemingly sat back to play for the draw in the final minutes. Thoughts? This idea occured to me too, and I think is good, altough opportunities are rare to test it on regular basis. You need tie at the moment, late phase(75'), dominating team, and indications that their opponents don't have power to come out efficiently in counter-attack. Seems like safe stake and possible profit every now and then. Other thing about draw-no-bet, not neccesarilly in play, that occured to my mind... What do you say about half time draw no bet? On home team favourite let's say. I haven't come accros that market yet. First half is a struggle, who plays overs in fh will know that very vell. Favourites are sometimes hold to draw, sometimes they manage, rarely opponent snatch a lead. Certainly, favourites are not going to play gung-ho with 45 or more minutes left on the clock, and suck from a counter. It's like golden mine.:D I feel ht dnb could be simulated. I don't know how, I'm no good in mathematics. So, uknown number of related individual bets that as a practic result give [team] half time draw no bet @price of normal draw no bet. Any ideas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borntorun Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System bothered to try mself:D unbelievable how one can be so lazy, just unbelievable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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