Grex Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 401 bets; +8.5% yield I have mixed feelings about today's selection. For the sake of the system' date= I hope Chelsea win...... but my heart says otherwise ;) System :D.... Heart :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 409 bets; +8.6% yield At last United helped you. I couldn't bring myself to bet against them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 409 bets; +8.6% yield Once again, the community recognized the efforts Grex puts in this thread, and he deservedly won the PL Oscar once again, and the third statue is already shining next to his nickname here! Congratulations, and keep up the good work! :clap Details here and here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 409 bets; +8.6% yield Well done [again] Grex :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 409 bets; +8.6% yield Once again' date=' the community recognized the efforts Grex puts in this thread, and he deservedly won the PL Oscar once again, and the third statue is already shining next to his nickname here! Congratulations, and keep up the good work![/quote'] Thanks, Froment..... and thanks to those who voted for the system. It's a great honour to be recognised in this way. Unfortunately, the system has not done very well this season..... but overall performance over 4 seasons is still positive. Thanks JTW..... it will be your turn next year ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 409 bets; +8.6% yield It's FA Cup this weekend, so only Serie A to choose from. Two selections..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 409 bets; +8.6% yield One selection from the mid-week round of matches..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 411 bets; +8.5% yield A comfortable mid-week winner..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 412 bets; +8.7% yield Two for the weekend..... at relatively short odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 412 bets; +8.7% yield Don't seem to be able to hit a consistent winning streak :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 412 bets; +8.7% yield Dear Grex, it was very interesting to follow your system. I'm new to this forum and found your contribution very nice. I'd like to add some comments hoping that they might help to develop it. First of all I find that the criteria used are very similar to the ones used by the professional punters. They usually bet on stakes on your range 1,45/1,8, because they expect to have a 2/3 W/L ratio. However this ratio is very hard to achieve. Maybe it should be enforced with some further consideration, like form, H2H history, saeson's perfomance (at home). My feeling is that bet on Man U, Inter, Udinese, and in some cases Napoli at home is dangerous this year. Have you ever considered to put some extra filters on your selections? Secondly why bet365? Ok pinnacle is too high, but why not sbobet? I believe their odds complier are better and they put almost the same margins, or if you want an "average" stake, why don't just look for oddsportal.com? Thanks in advance for your reply! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 414 bets; +8.5% yield An update on the overall performance of the system since the start in September 2009...... and it doesn't look very impressive.... recently, anyway. The graph shows how the performance has declined since the end on the 2011/12 season. Just a statistical "blip"? I hope so :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 412 bets; +8.7% yield ...... Maybe it should be enforced with some further consideration, like form, H2H history, saeson's perfomance (at home). My feeling is that bet on Man U, Inter, Udinese, and in some cases Napoli at home is dangerous this year. Have you ever considered to put some extra filters on your selections? Secondly why bet365? Ok pinnacle is too high, but why not sbobet? I believe their odds complier are better and they put almost the same margins, or if you want an "average" stake, why don't just look for oddsportal.com? Sorry for the delayed reply, Paparazzo. The system is simple, and I have not tampered with it (much) since it started. I suppose I have treated it as a challenge..... to see if such a basic system can really produce a profit. I have another thread (ELO ratings) which is more complex and takes into account form etc. It's early days, but it isn't performing as well as the "Home" system. Why Bet365? Because the original back-testing was done on Bet 365 odds..... so, the selections are based on their odds (1.45 - 1.80), but the quoted odds are the best available from main-line bookies. Anyway, thanks for your comments :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 414 bets; +8.5% yield .... and now for this weekend's qualifiers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 414 bets; +8.5% yield OMG,,,,, definitely a weekend to forget :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 417 bets; +7.7% yield One for tonight..... let's hope we can end that 'orrible run of "Ls". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 417 bets; +7.7% yield The Everton game was postponed due to high winds(?). Selections for this weekend may also be a bit thin on the ground - only Serie A to choose from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 417 bets; +7.7% yield Just one........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 417 bets; +7.7% yield Five losers on the trot. It doesn't get much worse than this...... well, actually it has, earlier in the season - a run of 6 losses last December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 418 bets; +7.5% yield Let's see if we can stop that run of bloody "L's" :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 418 bets; +7.5% yield At last, a winner (even last-minute goals are acceptable!)....... but, overall, still not a pretty sight :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 421 bets; +7.1% yield Two more losers for the weekend ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 421 bets; +7.1% yield I didn't realise that Everton and West Ham had transferred to Serie A :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakesociedad Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 421 bets; +7.1% yield I didn't realise that Everton and West Ham had transferred to Serie A :$ haha, well most of the english league plays catenaccio now, so understandable typo anyways bit of skid, but feel that now we're at the point where books will make you pay for wins, so hopefully this closes out strong cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 421 bets; +7.1% yield haha, well most of the english league plays catenaccio now, so understandable typo anyways bit of skid, but feel that now we're at the point where books will make you pay for wins, so hopefully this closes out strong cheers Had to look this one up in Wikipedia.... "Catenaccio or "The Chain" is a tactical system in football with a strong emphasis on defense. In Italian, catenaccio means "door-bolt", which implies a highly organized and effective backline defense focused on nullifying opponents' attacks and preventing goal-scoring opportunities." There's a few teams, e,g, Man United, who haven't yet got the message. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 421 bets; +7.1% yield It just ain't working :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 423 bets; +6.9% yield Five for the weekend...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 423 bets; +6.9% yield A slight recovery...... Not trying to make excuses for Lazio's loss, but this could have been a contributing factor http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/26509338 Sort of lost their home advantage :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakesociedad Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 423 bets; +6.9% yield A slight recovery...... Not trying to make excuses for Lazio's loss, but this could have been a contributing factor http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/26509338 Sort of lost their home advantage :lol I feel that this is a valid excuse. Curious too how this system would deal with similar situations like this or in situations where home advantage is a non-factor obviously Inter AC at the San Siro, this is worked into the odds and rarely will you ever have one of those teams as a heavy favorite, but lets say the Derby Della Lanterna. Sorry if this has been discussed previously in this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Re: Grex's HOMES; 428 bets; +7.3% yield Hi Fakesociedad..... thanks for your comment. To be honest, I didn't understand your comment, until I realised that the San Siro is the home of both Inter and AC Milan. I would imagine the reason there is never a strong favorite in Milan derbies is that both teams have, for many years, been near the top of Serie A (until this year ;)). I assume that the "home" team in Milan derbies receives the vast majority of tickets and therefore has a distinct psychological advantage. As for Sampdoria-Genoa ("Derby Della Lanterna"), I suppose the situation is different. The system does not take into account such complications as home advantage being a non-factor. The selections are simply based on home adds being 1.45-1.80 as published by Bet 365.... nothing more, nothing less. This weekend, there are just three selection (no derbies involved)..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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