jtw1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 156 bets +17% yield The rules of this very simple system are: 2. The selections are based on odds published by Bet365 within the range 1.45 to 1.80; Just to clear things up , is it when the odds are published or on a certain day Grex ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 157 bets +16% yield Good question..... the back-testing was done on the basis of historical Bet365 odds from football-data.co.uk. The owner of the site informed me that he generally took the odds about 24 hours before the KO. So, in theory, the system should also use Bet365 odds published the day before a match. However, I have been a bit flexible on this (usually for my own convenience).... and tended to post selections 2-3 days before matches. I don't suppose it makes a great deal of difference :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Full house for the Serie A! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Yes, Relf...... but, of course, in a few months the Serie A Silly Season will start again, with those "strange" draws ;) Anyway, the Milan odds remain stubbornly at 1.44, so it's a non-selection. Perhaps it's a deliberate conspiracy by RIB (the Royal Institution of Bookmakers) to de-rail the system..... Bet365 will stop publishing any adds between 1.45 and 1.80.... and we will suddenly see a boat-load of odds at 1.44 and 1.81. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield I'm the first to preach discipline but maybe a tiny bit of lee-way could be shown regarding those on 1.44 ?? I don't have the facts to hand but does the 0.1 make a great difference Grex? Please don't take this as any criticisim just curiosity more than anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield The back-testing showed the best performance was within the 1.45 to 1.80 range. Last season, I did bend the rules a few times and include a couple of 1.44's, but this season I decided to stick rigidly to the selction criteria...... then I don't have to think, or make decisions ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Just a wee reminder that this thread is up for best system in the PL Oscars so if , like me , you think this system is the dog's then get voting !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Don't suppose I can vote for myself ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Congratulations, Grex! This system is long due some form of recognition! You got the vote! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Just a wee reminder that this thread is up for best system in the PL Oscars so if ' date=' like me , you think this system is the dog's then get voting !!!![/quote'] Thanks for bringing this to our attention, JTW. I am rather surprised that this system has been nominated for an award..... it is the only football system on the list (so far), and I am sure it will be out-voted by our racing colleagues. Anyway, just to be nominated is an honour.... thanks to JTW and Nicko :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Congratulations' date=' Grex! This system is long due some form of recognition! You got the vote! :clap[/quote'] Thanks, Relf..... it has been great "chatting" with you over the past year or so :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Wanna be my public relations manager, JTW ?? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I have a graph in Excel that demonstrates the consistentcy of this system over the past season-and-a-half. How do I import, or copy-and-paste into a PL post???.... can anyone help??... thanks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I have a graph in Excel that demonstrates the consistentcy of this system over the past season-and-a-half. How do I import' date= or copy-and-paste into a PL post???.... can anyone help??... thanks :ok A simple copy>paste should work but you must use Internet Explorer! Keep up the good work with the system and :hope for the PL Oscars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I have a graph in Excel that demonstrates the consistentcy of this system over the past season-and-a-half. How do I import' date= or copy-and-paste into a PL post???.... can anyone help??... thanks :ok one way i can think of is if you take a screen shot of it and post it 2nd post explain how to do it http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f2/testing-new-way-upload-screen-shots-72224/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks, David and Rebel.... despite the excellent instructions, it still took me about 30 minutes to fathom out the¨"imageshack" method :eyes Well, as you can see, the system has been reasonably consistent over the entire 161 bets. Having said that, it has recently gone through probably its worst spell (from Bet 147 to 157). It is now on the upturn again, so hopefully this will turn out to be a positive future trend :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Looking at the early Bet365 odds for next weekend, it looks as though there will be only one possible qualifier (Lazio - Sampdoria), and that is currently right on the limit at 1.80 :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Looking at the early Bet365 odds for next weekend' date= it looks as though there will be only one possible qualifier (Lazio - Sampdoria), and that is currently right on the limit at 1.80 :cry Just a quick one Grex, if the 365 odds are 1.80 but another bookie is offering 1.82 does the bet still qualify for the system. Great system keep up the good work, hope you win the Oscar:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Hi, Chris.... the system was developed based on historical Bet365 odds. The cut-off odds are 1.45 and 1.80, as published by Bet365. If a home team from the Premiership or Serie A falls within this range, then it becomes a selection. To increase the value of the bet, then obviously you should go for the highest available odds..... so the answer to your question is YES :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I lie awake at night asking myself exactly the same questions..... and still no answers ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks, David and Rebel.... despite the excellent instructions, it still took me about 30 minutes to fathom out the¨"imageshack" method :eyes Well, as you can see, the system has been reasonably consistent over the entire 161 bets. Having said that, it has recently gone through probably its worst spell (from Bet 147 to 157). It is now on the upturn again, so hopefully this will turn out to be a positive future trend :hope Wow, the rise of the system is much better than the price of gold. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works. 2 things.. First, Bet365 does not price up anything - they just follow the market odds blindly. If market says a match is 1.45 homewin, then they will also be around that odds. 98% of all bookies just follow the market odds blindly. So it really will make no difference if you use Bet365 or another bookmaker with same odds margin for this project. 2nd, a sample of 150-175 bets is very small when it comes to statistics. I belive myself and another person earlier in this thread also tested this system over a much bigger data block, and got a much worse result. With that said.. I still find it interesting to follow these "systems".. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I lie awake at night asking myself exactly the same questions..... and still no answers ;) Stupid comment..... it's not going to win many votes on the Oscars "best system" poll :lol Wow' date=' the rise of the system is much better than the price of gold. :loon[/quote'] Interesting thought...... perhaps I should put the system on the "futures" market :tongue2 I think you are referring to Mglanfield's post (#491). In fact, he was using average odds from Betbrain, not Bet365...... also his back-testing was over a shorter period than mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I think you are referring to Mglanfield's post (#491). In fact, he was using average odds from Betbrain, not >Bet365...... also his back-testing was over a shorter period than mine. hell Grex, now you made me have to look over all the pages to find it :) Anyway, it was the post from myself and Kumquat Tree on page 10 and 11 I meant. I do not know what data you got or how you tested it, but when I backtest this system using exactly what you write. Bet365 odds between 1.45 and 1.80, and test all the way back to the 2000/2001 season I only get a very tiny profit for Premier League, and an overall loss for Italy. The samples I test is over 700 matches, so alot more than the 160-175 matches we currently got going here.. So I would still expect this to go down over time... BUT, it also may not.. Since what also can be seen in my database, is that it is the last 3-4 seasons thats been the best by far, so for some reason, the bookies/market does not seem to have adjusted in to having too high odds in this exact area.. If they continue not to do so, this system could ofcause continue to be a success ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks, Dominator, for finding the previous comments on pages 10 and 11 (to be honest, I had forgotten all about them).... and for your constructive analysis. As I have mentioned a few times, I had a catastrophe with my old laptop and lost all files on the hard disk. I am in the process of re-creating the back-testing on this system, but it will take a day or so. One thing that perhaps you have not taken into account, is that the system ignores the first and last 6 rounds of matches in each league. I remember that this significantly improved the yield during back-testing. Anyway, thanks again.... I will come back to you on this when I have finished the number-crunching :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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