smw30 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Have you done any backtesting for backing on the -1 handicap? Nice system though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Hi, smw30.... I haven't done any formal backtesting on AH(-1).... and it will be a bit difficult, as I don't have any AH(-1) historical odds data. A quick check on this season's selections shows that there would have been 17 winners, 11 losers and 14 pushed. Assuming AH(-1) odds of approximately 2.2, the yield would be about 22%.... so more-or-less the same as the straight home win.... but the calculation is very sensitive to the assumed odds. If you have any historical data, please share it with me, and I will do some detailed back-testing. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield I don't have the data, just an idea but I suspected the yield would be around the same from my brief look at earlier results. How about win to nil? Alot seem to be that but odds are often pretty average. Again, no data I'm just speculating as this system clearly throws up good selections and it would be good to take advantage as much as possible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormwell Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Grex Your systems (this and the O2.5) both seem excellent and you're a gent for sharing it, so thanks for that! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield this does not work in the long run Pray Enlighten us !! and before you i can give you the website which shows it HAS worked for at least the past 3 season's , not including 2010/11.. I'm all ears ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Well after a quick look this morning I make it 4 games in the EP and 1 in LA, with a few just outside the odds. Big one this weekend then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield I'm all ears ;) ... me too. Unfortunately Jaysright seems to have dropped his/her "bomb-shell" and flown ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Gosh.. I'm still recovering from the shock of Allardyce's departure. Hope Blackburn will still win this weekend. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield what is the reason that you think that your selection strategy will win? that is a question that you may consider. do you have any ideas mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dac007 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Good run Grex!) what if we were putting 5% from the bank to each bet and if it failed, put next one 10%, then 15%, 20%, 25%.....? the run is very good and i think the strategy like that can bring more profit? I don't really know all that strategies, but believe there can be more prifitable and effective strategy?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield what is the reason that you think that your selection strategy will win? that is a question that you may consider. do you have any ideas mate? "Do I have any ideas, mate?"..... no, mate, I don't have a clue..... as with most systems on this forum, it is based on back-testing, with no guarantee that future projections will perform with the same yield, mate. "Why do I think my selection strategy will win?"...... simple answer, mate.... I am not sure it will win, mate..... but then I don't think any system authors on this forum can say they are sure they will win.... mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Good run Grex!) what if we were putting 5% from the bank to each bet and if it failed, put next one 10%, then 15%, 20%, 25%.....? the run is very good and i think the strategy like that can bring more profit? I don't really know all that strategies, but believe there can be more prifitable and effective strategy?? Thanks, Dac007.... yes, it is a good run, and long may it continue :hope To be honest, I don't like these Martingale-type staking systems.... they usually end in disaster. Having said that, with this system, it is VERY unlikely to have a long losing run, so it may be worth looking at. But I am very conservative, and will stick to my level staking system. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Gday Grex and Grex followers I think to each his own when it comes to how to back these. I didnt back them last week but the week before I put the selections in a 3 leg acca and a 4 leg acca, both of which won, so Im way in front...needless to say that may change...but anyway lol to everyone cheers all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Gday Grex and Grex followers...... but anyway lol to everyone As you say, Mr Magoo, you can use any staking plan on the selections... however, I will stick to the level-stakes.... it's less complicated ;) BTW, I always thought "lol" meant "laugh out loud"..... but perhaps, in your case ("lol to everyone"), it means "lots of love" :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield As you say' date= Mr Magoo, you can use any staking plan on the selections... however, I will stick to the level-stakes.... it's less complicated ;) BTW, I always thought "lol" meant "laugh out loud"..... but perhaps, in your case ("lol to everyone"), it means "lots of love" :)Hello All just like to say have really enjoyed reading all the posts on this system. I'm new to the site and have been messing about with a system for home wins for a while but this really seems to be the one. Will follow it with great interest over the season, and who knows might even back a few. Good luck Grex like you I was brought up on United and now my boys are to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Gosh.. I'm still recovering from the shock of Allardyce's departure. Hope Blackburn will still win this weekend. :hope Yes, it certainly was a bit of a shock..... but there is always the theoritical "new manager syndrome".... players try extra hard to impress potential new managers ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield lol can mean many things... Lots of luck comes to mind...lots of lolly...lots of loot...lots of lumps (to the bookies)...cant think of any more :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Gday Players Took this weekends bets in a 5 leg acca (13/1) and took Liverpool as an anchor in two 3 leg accas (5/1) Plus all my draw lays (Magoos Magic Part II) Hopefully, Im not in a bread queue somewhere come Monday... lolplayers:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Thanks for filling me in on the meaning of "LOL", Mr Magoo :ok..... and good luck with your acca's :hope.... my only concern is that you have chosen Liverpool as your anchor - they are not the most consistent of performers these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
countdacash Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Need Man City to do the business tomorrow! A bad weekend for the Home Faves (and 2.5) system (although obviously all the cancelled games would have come in!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Hi, Countdacash, and :welcome to Punters Lounge. Yes, it has been a bad weekend so far.... and I will be depending on the Blue half of Manchester to rescue some respectability. But as you say, I am sure all the postponed matches would have come good :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemanc Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Evening Mr G. I,ll give the blues a shout for you on Monday,assuming we get the green light from the ref.I also assume that the red half of Manc is Droylsden FC,my second team. I can,t think of any others within the Manc boundaries !!! Sorry ! Good luck. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Hi, Bluemanc.... I had a feeling my comments would get a reaction from you ;). The big question is whether Tevez will play.... and if he does play, will he have his heart in it ?? Anyway, good luck to you :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield It's not the best start..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield I had placed 5 gbp on Man City because the odds had been matched this system, but After that, I placed 10 gbp on Everton because this Away team was selected in Bairn's system thread :lol In fact, now I hope Everton can win, the scores now: ManCity 0 - 2 Everton ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield I had placed 5 gbp on Man City because the odds had been matched this system' date=' but After that, I placed 10 gbp on Everton because this Away team was selected in Bairn's system thread :lol In fact, now I hope Everton can win, the scores now: ManCity 0 - 2 Everton ;)[/quote'] Haha I did almost the same, only with different amounts! Not that I don't have faith in Grex, but looking at Bairn's pick it actually looked like great value and made me change my mind, especially with City in turmoil. Still 45 minutes to go though. Great work anyway Grex with your picks, I'm sure you'll be back to winning ways next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 42 bets +23% yield Hopefully the system gets back on track next week, I've only managed a 20% strike rate since joining in. I do tend to jinx most systems I enrol in, probably should have mentioned that earlier.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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