AFL Round 12

[ozgamer]

Split round. Here we go. CARL 3.15 vs ST K 1.36----- +/-17.5 : 1.91 WB 1.21 vs PORT 4.45------- -/+26.5 : 1.91 RICH 1.60 vs WCE 2.35------ -/+ 9.5 : 1.91 HAW 1.44 vs BRIS 2.80------ -/+15.5 : 1.91 ADEL 1.15 vs NTH 5.50------ -/+33.5 : 1.91 -------------------------------------------- ESS 1.35 vs MELB 3.22------ -/+18.5 : 1.91 SYD 1.88 vs COLL 1.93 FREO 9.00 vs GEE 1.06------ +/-44.5 : 1.91 Don't like alot of these games from H2H perspective and am wary about player mentality around mid-season break as well e.g. Geelong on Sunday. Carl vs Saints looks a good one to watch. WB $1.21 on neutral ground no thanks! Can't have Port @ +26.5 either. Richmond @ $1.60 no thanks! Eagles a chance at $2.30 but they are crap in Victoria. Adelaide playing irresistable football atm but $1.15 is in Geelong and Saints territory odds-wise so they should be a bit longer but I can't have Nth @ +33.5 either. Won't look at the other games seriously til next w/e but for now only Hawks -15.5 (but will need to look more closely) and Coll 1.93 (for obvious reasons i.e. record vs Swans home AND away) interest me. Possible UNDER total for those 2 games as well and maybe Adelaide-Nth if high enough.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 When do we like H2H games any more oz?... :lol ...our favourite game is getting more and more like NFL (yeah, ok, my favourite game!) by the second, Almost impossible to pick winners...but totals, well... :ok Mmmmm...Kinda like Carlton, but i) Their lack of quality backs will hurt bad...and ii) They are playing St. Kilda, so there's no reason at all their forward line (Fev...sorry, and Fisher now) does anything. No idea. Tiges...surely even the more flamboyant of us must chuckle at 1.60...'over' big time, but sure to be a decent line given last week... Port away?...no, no, no no, no...Dogs 1.25? no, no, no, no, no...over? Oh yes...but again expecting an inflated total. Neutral venue...Hawks still suck (esp. without Rioli)...even so, they belted the Lions down here last year...Brisbane with 3 of their best back 6 out...na... Crows win, but 1.15? :eek Tempted by the 33.5 tbh...33 loss last year, but 53-55 I50's and 33-36 clearances...Goodwin and Burton kicked 3 each... ...can't see any reason why there'll be more than 6 shots in this. And I don't care who Hollywood Walker and LeBron Tippett are...I still don;t see the Crows scoring enough (without kicking a million, three) to cover a big number. Fidel Edwards kicks a bag and the Kangas slip home by -25ish... :unsure I do have one serious moment in me... Collingwood to make top 4 (3.55!) Numbers say they are (consistantly) number 3 to St. Kilda and Geelong for I50's...now they are back to full strength (Rocca?) they are kicking big enough scores to win games. (Now 6-0 ats when scoring at 2.00 per I50 or better)... ...have a dream run home with only one game outside Melbourne after Stadum Oz where they've won their last 3, all as underdogs. Bulldogs twice, but should go 1-1 if not better...no St. Kilda or Geelong... ...can't see any other team around the mark with as many easy wins. Even money chance at least...odds are silly. (Too much love for Carlton, who have Saints, Geelong...Port & Freo away)... ...Brisbane play 6 on the road plus Geelong and Dogs at home... ...Hawks have @ WC, Dogs, Geelong, Collingwood, St. Kilda, @ Port... ...Port have Dogs, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawks, @ Brisbane.

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 12 im on carlton to lead at ht, st kilda to come out with the 4 points. only decent bet for the weekend i rekn (Y) North are actually a chance vs crows, but i doubt they will win! might go with another money maker and put carl/carl/stk/stk lets see how it all goes :) oh and reasoning because carltank start ok, st kilda start shocking over last few weeks, st kilda love the 3rd QTR :) carlton will drop away in 4th. St kilda by 20 :)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 12 I'm looking at the Tri-Bet for the Richmond game. Probably won't try to hard for a big catch but also wasn't joking about Tambling for beston - is there a medal market or something on this, maybe an annual Ben Cousins medal between these traditional rivals? The 350.00 Brownlow medalist is out and don't forget Hodge finished last week dodgy on that ankle (not sure if there's any observations at BF?). I've actually got Brisbane as a play at around 3.00 but will not only be watching the squads but also should Launceston and it's windy surrounds throw up some charming c*** of a day again like last year .... Yes, haven't worked a market on top-4 this week but Collingwood did start to stand out. Don't know why you bothered checking their draw though Taz, we all know it's always gunna be soft ;). It does remind me though that I intend having something on Footscray to make GF. Saw 4.20 Betchoice but might also play the quinellas with the other two - 7.50 & 21.00 (would be no big shock).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 12 The closest I can think of for Tambling is to find a fantasy/dream team market. Not that it's quite the same thing but it's the closest I think you'll get. A couple of things mentioned last week that have resonated. 1/8 first quarters for the Bulldogs in recent weeks? With the game in Darwin I have a sneaky feeling of a Port/WBD HT/FT double. Will have to see what odds I can get for that one. Also recall the Crows being fast starters, though the 1.33 on first to 25 looks about right. Have a feeling Lions will keep in touch but be outgunned in the end. Will look for Hawks 1-12 HT margin, and possibly the same for Richmond. Wonder what effect a new coach will have on Richmond's start though. Will they come out fast and fade to some degree, or start sluggishly and then rev up in the 2nd half. Trickier one to call, think the tri-bet might be on. How many new coaches have overseen a draw in their first game? We're probably about due for one too...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 12 From the getgo and stay stong all game, Oscar. There'll also be most disposal bets. I'm also backing Tambling to win the Coleman medal, by one from Franklin. Footscray 4.20 at Racingodds it was. Can combine with Cats & Saints for average odds of 5.50

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 Totals are out: All unders and overs currently at $1.90 CARL vs ST K---197.5 WB vs PORT----202.5 RICH vs WCE---201.5 HAW vs BRIS---171.5 ADEL vs NTH---179.5 RICH vs WCE Under 201.5 @ $1.90 I can't see a repeat of the Freo-Richmond game here in terms of a bottom 4 clash, Eagles can't kick straight anyway (except LeCras) and it's at the Docklands as well.

[blink]

Re: AFL Round 12 Edit by hen: for permission to post a link, could you email Paul Ross please. Edit by TazaD: The rest of post was pointless as well!

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 I've looked at Carl vs Saints again. I think the Saints will win but the Blues have only been blown away in one game 44pts vs Adelaide (away). Their Melbourne games stands at 5 wins and 2 narrow losses. This is their biggest test but I can't see them getting blown away. ST KILDA 1-39 : $2.27

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 Wish I had have hit the under 197.5 this morning when I was going to... Saints haven't allowed over 21 shots all year...and I can't quite see where Carlton are coming from leaving Fisher out of the side. :\ Best defense up against a now, one dimentional forward line...22 shots v. Sydney, 20 v. Adelaide, 24 v. Collingwood...32 last week v. Brisbane with half their backline missing... Carlton have the second best D over their last 5 games (behind Saints ;) )...allowing just a shot every 2.30 entries on 50 I50's a game... ...so tough to see anything over 47 shots or so. 27.20 still falls pretty easily under 193...wouldn't go any lower than this, but 193.5 still looks a bit too high. (Saints have topped this number one time all season, by kicking 161 v. WC) Not entirely sure I'd be placing my trust in a Richmond under oz... :\ Given up 94+ points in all but one game (still 23 shots v. a pathetic Kangas)... ...WC given up 95+ in all but 1 on the road (@ a low scoring York Park)...have played 3 pretty good teams last 3, but scored 101 @ Sydney, 30 shots (home) v. an equivalent Melbourne...even 19 shots @ St. Kilda doesn't look too bad! I know on the surface neither team can score, but anything can hapen here with a Coburg backline.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 Now upto 194.5 again?...weird... Doggies v. Port over 202.5 Port allowing monster points on the road, a goal every 2.93 entries is just awful...[Richmond 3.23 to compare to last week for Doggies]...Dogs number 1 overall (and still last 5) [yes, better than Geelong], goal every 3.19 entries, so every chace they score big...have scored 135 and 141 last 2 games here in last 2 years as it is... ...and have scored 104+ in each of their last 5. Port scoring has been down, but Motlop back this week is a big IN. Missed the last 2...before that 25+ shots was the norm (besides St. Kilda, and @ SCG where they struggle consistantly.) Dogs have allowed 26 shots in last 7 away from Vic (3 this year), and Port has av'd 32 shots (119ppg) in their last 10 v. them! (11.15 last year was their lowest, but in a game that still hit 216). 5 Dogs games at TIO have av'd 212, so depsite generally slippery, dewy conditions at night, scoring is the norm.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 Almost tempted by the Hawthorn/Bris under...no Rioli hurts...unfortunately Merrett will miss again, with Roe in now things do look a little easier for Franklin/Roughy. Brisbane forward line looks potent too with Brown, Bradshaw, Brennan...although 1 may have to play back, despite Roe... ...[gotta love named team with Notting named @ FB! :lol ] Still, low scoring ground...gunna be an ordinary day... ...not sure how Kangas score either now. No Campbell (av. 2 goals in every game he hasn't gotten injured!), no Warren, no Wells...can Jones an Garlett get it done?? Doesn't seem likely. Haven't had more than 19 shots v. Crows in their last 4 as it is...and, if Crows can hold Hawthorn to 48 and Carlton to 39 I50's, Kangas might struggle to top 30...again!! (29 last week v. Saints!!:eek) Crows (poor) defensive stats at home look silly now...played Geelong, St. Kilda, Doggies (top 3) and Port first 4 at 'home'...as I've said, strangled last 2. Take out Melbourne, Richmond, Port and Freo in Melbourne and Kangas haven't topped 21 shots all season. Can Crows top 26?...Kangas back 6 looks terrible!...but as I said early, Tippett/Walker won't do last week too often. Both teams remarkably straight shooting, so under at a low number is risky (although weather looks to be not so good)... ...so nothing for me after all that I suspect. Good Luck gang. :ok Thornton out for Carlton...he's worth a point it seems. ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 I'm gunna be a massive sook here... ...but **** it...that was easily the worst loss I've seen all year. Easily. Have never seen so many arsey goals in that first half...every ******* kick managed to bounce/wind/clear it's way over the line somehow. There was a ru in the 2nd where 7 goals in a row came from shots outside 50...Riewoldt (the worst set shot there is!) 2, that barely cleared the line...Milne bounced one through from 70...Betts bounced one through from just as far... ...Bannister (who the ****?!) flung one through...Hampson managed to get a stupidly lucky bounce only to somehow avoid a smother (totally un-aware it was coming)... ...Murphy dribbled one from 80 after O'Hailpin decided to not decide 20 out! You are kidding me!!!...Goddard eases one on the left from 45...Montagna's last goal hit's about 3 ft over the line and bounces back from 45m on a 60 dg angle... ...of course, 'replied' by a shocking bounce leading to the worst kick in the AFL slotting one on the run... I feel sick. I can lose as well as the next guy, but that ******* sucked. Big ******* time. Have I made my ******* point?! :wall 49 shots...fourty ******* nine...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 12 :rollin Now come on mate, such a wonderful spectacle. What about peace and love and all that ... There certainly did seem some sort of fourth dimensional goal warp going on out there. :ok

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12

:rollin Now come on mate, such a wonderful spectacle. What about peace and love and all that ... There certainly did seem some sort of fourth dimensional goal warp going on out there. :ok

+1. Did I not say it would be a good one to watch? :tongue2 Yeah there was plenty of arse in some of those shots. Btw, how many Carlton goals had come from set shots? I'd say much less than the Saints. Alot were def from broken play. And if one is going to ? a legit goal it would be O'hAilpin's on the run (not to mention that worm burner to Fev on the chest). Really? He's been in the system for years and still cannot kick for sh**. He takes a good mark, runs fast and has a strong body and that's it. How the hell is he still playing AFL? :\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 12

+1. Did I not say it would be a good one to watch? :tongue2 Yeah there was plenty of arse in some of those shots. Btw, how many Carlton goals had come from set shots? I'd say much less than the Saints. Alot were def from broken play. And if one is going to ? a legit goal it would be O'hAilpin's on the run (not to mention that worm burner to Fev on the chest). Really? He's been in the system for years and still cannot kick for sh**. He takes a good mark, runs fast and has a strong body and that's it. How the hell is he still playing AFL? :\

I think he's pretty much one of those guys in the team to give others a kick up the arse.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 :lol Yeah, I think Dennis mentioned it was his second best kick all season... ...mind you, then they kept coming! :wall Now, I may have been a little over dramatic last night (although to be fair, I probably was feeling sick by that point... :beer...) ...but surely if that game is played 10 more time, not one would get to 190. Crazy stuff. I know most commentators these days talk the games up as opposed to actually saying what is going on... ...but even the 'serious' guys at HT made me laugh. (Well, the opposite of laugh actually...) In the space of 2 minutes Buckley and Matthews went from (quite rightly) saying that Carlton had no structure up forward and they were kicking a lot of 'random' goals [although no mention of 9.2]... ...to saying the Blues were right in the game and they expected Fev to fire in the second. er, why now? :unsure Anyway...to sum up... :moon the world.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 Richmond out to $1.77 and Eagles in to $2.08. Line in to 6.5. Hmmm couldn't think of a worse game to plunge on oh and in a blink the odds are now $1.75 and $2.11.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 12 On the back of Ash's 10/10 tip on SP I have taken Richmond -4.5 @ 1.93 with Eskander. Also have my Port/WBD HT/FT bet going. As for the bad luck Taza, I tend to think its your fault for opening the thread with a comment about how easy totals are to pick this year. Should never tempt fate like that!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 12 All the late money's for the team that's lost their last eighteen away (if that's correct?). :loon Gosh, obviously The Syndrome isn't any consideration among punters. Think I've only heard one commentator give it any lip thus far :loon. :hope (Richmond out to 1.82 now).

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 12 bloody hell , was on edge of my seat all night. TAB MULTI; Dogs @ line Cousins to goal =[ =[ =[ Richmond to win

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12

All the late money's for the team that's lost their last eighteen away (if that's correct?). :loon Gosh' date=' obviously The Syndrome isn't any consideration among punters. Think I've only heard one commentator give it any lip thus far :loon. :hope (Richmond out to 1.82 now).[/quote'] Yep and the dumb money meant the Eagles started ~ $2.03 (which were probably correct odds), playing like $10 longshots in the beginning and then the game dribbled into a typical 13th vs 15th contest - God my eyes hurt :cry(and my ears - thanks TEN :ok). After the 1st qtr it was all Richmond's to lose. Really the game should've been over by then. I50's 15-9 , Marks I50 13-1!!, Clearances 9-2?, Scoring shots 11-2 but the butchers were only 4 goals ahead when they should've been 8 goals at least. Eagles had their chances but really out-butchered the butchers in the end. Morton (12 marks, 5 gls 3) gets 3 diff opponents in the 1st qtr and gets 3 in the last. Unheard of for a player in a team 15th on the ladder. :notworthy Same rubbish as b4 with Kerr. Tagged from pillar to post and zero support from his clueless team-mates. So much for "flying the flag" eh? Stenglein on Morton? Gr8 move Woosha. At least you got the Hurn-Nahas mis-match right. He is one of the worst match-up coaches I feel. Tigers defence still not good (Eagles won I50's 55-47 but only 18 scoring shots c.f. Tigers 26!) even tho tackling pressure was better they didn't self-destruct as per usual - helps when playing Eagles being inept. Tigers just need to pace themselves so they can run out their games a bit better and be more accountable esp when the ball rebounds out of their fwd 50. If they do that they should win a few more. They're not hopeless just don't do themselves any favours when things don't go their way and sometimes it's their own undoing e.g. overpossessing in defensive half. :spank Eagles played like they had their GF last week much like Richmond did in Rnd 2 against same opponent and typical 2008-09 Melb form only matched by Freo. 2nd best defensive effort by Richmond this year - that's how bad the Eagles were and eq 4th best attacking effort (still didn't clear 100 from 26 shots) which would've been easily their best had they kicked straighter. :spank Natanui. TEN replayed his stuff in slomo ad nauseum. I get it. He can jump. He can mark etc.. Give it a rest. It's just one game and he's still just a kid. A very athletic kid. :zzz Ugh! Did I say my eyes hurt? :cry And now Port Powder Puff. Yeah I going to rubbish them again and why not? Didn't watch the Dogs-Port game but one wonders if Chocko should just put away the cue-stick now. 6-6 &

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12

And now Port Powder Puff. Yeah I going to rubbish them again and why not? Didn't watch the Dogs-Port game but one wonders if Chocko should just put away the cue-stick now. 6-6 & Quality tv viewing for all... ...was alright actually...I was able to give up on winning the over in the first 3 minutes when Johnson kicked 2 OOF...quickly followed by a point from about 25 (decent angle)... ...and just as the hope was starting to rise again in the second Hill and Hahn both missed pretty easy shots...Hill then went on to kick 2 OOF and 2 more points in the 3rd. [Pretty amazed they kicked 22.11 in the end...seemed to miss a few easy ones, and no real lucky ones (Hahn on the run from 55m maybe). Port were never, ever going to score 10 goals...given they insisted on playing without a forward line all night. :\ Funny how first thing Cross said after the game was how much they rated Port...dunno...are Eade and Choco buddies or something? :unsure (We know Big Willy and Kane Cornes are ;) )

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 Ade-Nth total is now 169.5 at bouncedown in from 179.5. Only 4mm rain in last 24hr. Harris in for Hale (Nth); Shirley in for Johncock (Crows). Edit: Failed to mention the weather conditions. They just said dark. No mention of oncoming rain stupid 5AA. It is bucketing during the 1st qtr.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 Ess -18.5 pts @ $1.91 Bombers are short enough but I'm backing their scoring power to do the job vs the Dees. Docklands at night will be in their favour. Pies $1.94 Pies have the wood over the Swans in recent times and surprised the bookies haven't considered this and overreacted to their last 3 wins as well. Their interstate record is the best in the AFL. Cant' go past 'em at this price. Mistake: 2nd-best. I'm pretty sure Geelong has the best i/s record from 2007 onwards.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 Laidley resigns as of this morning :cryor maybe :cow This from Realfooty.com.au: "He was considered a master of getting the most from his players, and an expert matchday strategist." Oh puleeeze! Getting the most from your players doesn't include strapping a plough to their shoulders. Darren Crocker is fav to be the caretaker coach. Maybe he will fix up their rubbish fwd line and the ineffective/non-existent I50's. Backline is only poor thru the savaging they get every week. I50's last 5 wks going backwards: 34-65 (crows); 30-62 (saints); 49-47 (Bris); 46-55 (freo!); 39-64 (Geel). Next game is a Sun arvo home game vs the Dogs at the MCG. Line will be 40+ easy but we'll worry about that then.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 12

"He was considered a master of getting the most from his players' date= and an expert matchday strategist." Oh puleeeze! Getting the most from your players doesn't include strapping a plough to their shoulders.

Obviously I've gone on about this in the past but unfortunately his computer print-out derived complex strategies were his downfall IMO - of course, people are going to equate all that to master strategy. As your suggesting Oz, it's good to have game-plans, but it's like having six less players if you stifle their initiative too much - we only need to look at the Knights & Voss coached teams for an example of how it could be done. Something I've noticed thus far this season is it's the first year players that are displaying all the natural positive flair (they haven't been at the club long enough to be ruined). "Brayshaw praised the "unbelievable performance" of Laidley in getting North Melbourne to three out of four finals series "without a glamour list."" It's unfortunate, because in fairness he was probably a good coach in a number of areas but IMO North had an excellent list and probably would have played in one or two Grand Finals ('07 or '08) under another coach (not Wallace). I'd hope part of this has come about because they're angling for Buckley. I'm actually very impressed by things I've heard him say (a lot from his radio work).

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 12 Totals are out: All unders and overs currently at $1.90 ESS vs MELB---204.5 SYD vs COLL---176.5 FREO vs GEEL---188.5 INS and OUTS: ESS In: Fletcher, Welsh, Winderlich Out: Bachar Houli (virus), Jay Neagle, David Zaharakis MELB In: Bartram, Bennell, Jetta, Jurrah, Martin, Miller Out: Mark Jamar (quad), Nathan Jones (virus), James McDonald (knee), Matthew Warnock (virus), Daniel Bell, Addam Maric SYD In: Barlow, Smith, Thornton Out: Amon Buchanan, Craig Bolton (knee), Nick Malceski COLL No change FREO In: Grover, McPharlin, Ruffles, Hinkley Out: Josh Head GEEL In: Taylor, Corey, Hogan, Rooke, D Johnson Out: Tom Lonergan, Nathan Djerrkura I dunno. Dees ins don't cancel out the outs. Bombers ins would need the run but they have plenty up their sleeve. Getting pretty short in the odds too $1.35->$1.28 and line out to 24.5 from 18.5. Not sure on the UNDER total. Bombers season high has been 125 vs Rich (85) that night and Melb haven't been scoring well last 2, although Bombers D have been savaged by Cats and Crows last 2. Dees are a diff story tho. Bombers have a Friday blockbuster with the Blues next week so they may just cruise it in. Hmmm. C Bolton is a big out for the Swans, the other 2 aren't playing that well - Pies into favs now. ANZ has had 2 high scoring games this year. Surface is different to last year which has helped. Pies will like it either way: arm wrestle or shootout. Swans struggling to score last 2. I've gone on the Pies already. I'll stay out of the total. Geel get some key INs as do Freo. Freo's defence look a bit better now tho I think the Cats will clear 100 this time and in saying that, Freo will be lucky to get the 77 that the Eagles did 2 wks ago. Total for that game was 195.5 so 188.5 is pushing it this time. Harvey said they are definitely going after the Cats so that may be a good thing. I can't see the Cats going beserk here after the break esp with Port (home) but more importantly Saints (TD) to come. Any thoughts? Edit: Sydney forecast: Saturday: Showers. City: Min: 12 Max: 18 Perth forecast: Sunday: Shower or two, clearing later. Min 7 Max 16

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 My numbers suggesting a Bombers/Dees under...but looking closer I think it's one way traffic... Essendon -23.5 Essendon have played just 5 teams who allow a shot every 2.00 or worse...have won 4 out of 5...the loss being in Rd. 1 on the road to a flying (early) Port. The numbers are more impressive still...(again, apart from Port @ 2.00)...Carlton 1.58, Richmond [probably the most similar D to Melbourne] 1.77, Hawthorn 1.57, Freo 1.69! Melbourne av. 1.88 Despite playing both St. Kilda and Geelong in their last 5, Essendon are 2nd (behind Dogs) in their last 5 for I50/goals. (3.13) They've also played just 3 teams -1 or worse for I50's...Richmond, Brisbane, Kangaroos...went +3, +5 (away even), +6 respectively. Melbourne -11! Great signs last week too, with the Bombers getting 53 I50's (+1) v. a far stronger Crows team than Melbourne. Looking at 30 shots to 21ish...unless we see a Doggies style 7 point win (7 shots), 4 goals should be coverable enough.

As for the bad luck Taza, I tend to think its your fault for opening the thread with a comment about how easy totals are to pick this year. Should never tempt fate like that!

Yeah, wasn't having a crack at the landslide of cash 'totals' have been cascading upon me, Crouchy... ...more that we (as a group...and me!) seem to be having real problems picking winners, therefore have been playing more and more totals. So, if any market framing deity's are listening... ...speaking of...how's my Collingwood top 4 odds looking Ash? ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 12 Hmmm...not exactly sure why I waited a week (and a h'cap goal) to get onboard with you there oz... ...not sure what kind of games the Melbourne coaching staff are playing down there (never really been into the losing conspiracy draft pick thing...) but Maric has been good, and to drop him for Jurrah/Jetta...Benell has shown a bit at least. I can only guess they are trying to match speed with speed...yet Miller?!...but we saw last week with Watts what happens when kids aren't quite up to it. Anyway...yeah, despite me originally thinking 'under', the Bombers have had 29+ shots v. Freo, Hawthorn, Richmond, as well as Collingwood and Carlton so far...really could come up big here. I know there have been two high scoring games @ Stadium Oz so far, but a 3rd rate Hawthorn team, and a poor travelling Eagles... ...they haven't topped 85 in 6 games here v. Collingwood...and the Pies have given up over 24 shots to just Geelong, St. Kilda and Essendon... ...Swans not had 24+ in last 9 besides WC and Port, 2 AWFUL travelling teams at home. Sydney D holding up ok tho, every chance this one could stay below 85 each...esp. with a chance of rain. Freo D is terrible...a goal every 2.96 entries at home...nearly as bad as Port on the road! Far worse than WC last week, so yeah, Geelong top 100 for sure. Was a funny game that one tho wasn't it...seemed as tho Geelong knew their backlie sucked without Harley and Taylor (back this week) so playing keepings off for long periods was the order of the day. Not sure they'll be as conservative this time. Freo have had more than 25 shots just once in last 7, and that was 'only' 27 at home v. Richmond. Geelong allowed more than 22 just once in the last 8 to a rampant Bulldogs...although 11.11 last week to the Eagles...Freo getting forward more (WC just 37 I50's)...and are scoring ok at home (shot 1.82)...however 9.11 at home to Hawthorn is pretty bad! Bit tough to tell how much the Dockers can score... Pretty much agree totally oz. :ok