ozgamer Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Okay fellas, time to load up again. Prices below are with Centrebet at the time of this post RICHMOND 4.05 +27.5 : 1.91 Etihad Fri, 5 Jun 7:40 PM W BULLDOGS 1.21 -27.5 : 1.91 NTH MELB 8.00 +42.5 : 1.91 Etihad Sat, 6 Jun 2:10 PM ST KILDA 1.08 -42.5 : 1.91 BRISBANE 1.60 -9.5 : 1.91 Gabba Sat, 6 Jun 7:10 PM CARLTON 2.35 +9.5 : 1.91 PORT 1.22 -29.5 : 1.91 AAMI Sat, 6 Jun 7:10 PM FREO 4.35 +29.5 : 1.91 ESS 1.88 N/A Etihad Sun, 7 Jun 1:10 PM ADELAIDE 1.93 N/A HAWTHORN 1.40 -18.5 : 1.91 MCG Sun, 7 Jun 2:10 PM SYDNEY 2.97 +18.5 : 1.91 WCE 7.00 +40.5 : 1.91 Subiaco Sun, 7 Jun 2:40 PM GEELONG 1.10 -40.5 : 1.91 MELB 4.60 +28.5 : 1.91 MCG Mon, 8 Jun 2:10 PM PIES 1.20 -28.5 : 1.91 At this stage Doggies are 1.25 -> 1.21 as I posted this. The +42.5 line for Nth-StK looks generous. Considering the Under total as well ;) Brisbane should be favs at home but maybe not as short as $1.60. Bookies priced Carlton generously for a change :clap Port @ $1.22 are not sure things regardless. The +29.5 line looks "delicious" (hi Bruce!) :lol No interest in Ess-Crows and price looks about right :zzz I think Hawks @ $1.40 is another laugh tho Sydney yet to win away, 0/4 this year :lol WCE-Cats looks about right. Think a Geelong B team could clear the line. Melb-Pies looks almost right tho I would've liked a couple more points on the line :( More thoughts posted later :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Nth-StK: Considering the Under total as well ;) For about the first time all year I won't be...well, that's not true. Of course I will be, but doubt I'll get a number I want. (Mind you I was surprised at how generous the North/Bris total was last week! :tongue2 ) Kangaroo D has started to bulge at the seams, and could easily be ready to burst. Not game to take them giving 7 goals, but this is one the Saints just could romp in big time. Looks like another 'totals' week for me...Semi-interested in Richmond +27.5, although why I'm not quite sure! :lol Doggies WILL score that's a given...Tigers have given up a shot every 1.80 entries or worse in 7 of 10 games so far!! :eek [would you believe only 95 I50's @ Freo last week!! :puke]...but as I said last week, their midfield is holding their own agaisnt all comers in the last 6 weeks... ...and Dogs D hasn't been a whole lot better, only better than 2.00 three times...but what to make of the Swans last week? Only 47 I50's for only 17 shots...have the Doggies finally found the secret to winning games (and no, it's not scoring 120+ every week :eyes ), or were Sydney that bad? Comparable forward-line numbers so there's every chance it's a similar outcome...except the Dogs will score more! :D Think the Brisbane price might be based more on venue than form...Carlton's 3 interstate gmes so far have netted them just 28 goals. Brisbane giving up just 22 shots at home... :zzz ;) Freo av'ing just 18 shots on the road! :eek ...and may be struggling to get a deccent team on the field, but over 5 goals is a bit rich, esp. for such a poor kicking team in Port. Ess/Crows really is hard to split...Crows back to some very good midfield form...61-39 I50's v. Carlton and 56-48 last week...both games at home tho of course. The rd. 2 game might have dashed a decent number for a Swans/Hawthorn over...should be some points, but not sure I'll get what I want here either. Geelong lines are a complete toss-up, and there's no reason why Collingwood won't pump Melbourne again. More when some totals appear then I guess. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Kangaroo D has started to bulge at the seams, and could easily be ready to burst. Not game to take them giving 7 goals, but this is one the Saints just could romp in big time. One has to assume the Saints will kick straight (something they've struggled with lately) or exceed something like 30 shots and grind Nth to about half that. None of the Saints opponents have had 20+ scoring shots yet so the latter is likely but I'm not convinced the Saints will do their part. I am taking my chances at the 42.5 pts start. I just think it's too much to cover. Nth Melb +42.5 @ $1.91 ...Semi-interested in Richmond +27.5, although why I'm not quite sure! :lol I can only think that there's no way Richmond will send off Terry with a hiding from the Doggies. They'll probably be in it til half time (probably leading) after that who knows esp when you think about their 1st qtr/half performances that followed their last 2 creditable i/state games i.e. vs Bris and vs Ess and how they then raised the white flag so quickly :( Think the Brisbane price might be based more on venue than form...Carlton's 3 interstate gmes so far have netted them just 28 goals. Brisbane giving up just 22 shots at home... :zzz ;) That may be the case and Carlton have had 22 vs 24 and 24 vs 21 in their last 2 vs Bris but won with straighter kicking, something that has deserted them recently if you exclude the Pies game (16.6) so if it comes to a shootout (which Brisbane won't really want and I can't see it happening) Brisbane should still have the edge anyway. Another thing I've noticed in those last 2 encounters are 2 Carl names that featured in their scoring and/or in their best that aren't in the team atm: C Cloke 4 goals & 2 goals and Waite 20 pos + 2 gls & 26 pos. I wonder if Cloke gets a run? As a Lions fan I hope not. T Selwood should come back in for the Lions as well as my least fav, Johnstone, who has gone missing those last 2 Blues games 8 & 16 pos. Ess/Crows really is hard to split...Crows back to some very good midfield form...61-39 I50's v. Carlton and 56-48 last week...both games at home tho of course. I've looked at this game again. Bombers are slow starters have won 3/10 1st qtrs (1 in last 5) and 2.5/10 1st halves (0 in last 5). Adelaide in contrast are fast starters esp recently - won 6/10 1st qtrs (4 in last 5) and 6/10 1st halves (3 in last 5). I might like to see what I can get for Adelaide to win the 1st qtr and/or the 1st half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Freo av'ing just 18 shots on the road! :eek ...and may be struggling to get a deccent team on the field' date=' but over 5 goals is a bit rich, esp. for such a poor kicking team in Port.[/quote'] Maybe but AAMI is like a 2nd home to Freo. I would've given Freo a real chance here had they got thru unscathed last week as they generally turn up at AAMI (won 5 out of last 10 at AAMI since 2004; 2/4 under Harvey incl win vs Port last year w/o Pavlich). I expect that Harvey will give a couple of kids and some fringe players a chance to play. S Hill isn't a huge loss and deserves a short break and they have won games w/o Headland anyway. McPharlin IS a huge loss and if they lose M Johnson then it's a double blow. On top of that they are already missing Palmer and Crowley and also Hayden who is the most impt of the 3. I have nothing good to say about Port. They are mentally weak and their 2008 form is starting to show again. Like Richmond they give up when it gets too hard. They really miss S Burgoyne and now they lose C Cornes who plays like the rest of his team atm. If I use the Richmond formline as a guide then I would expect that Port would take Freo lightly as well. Freo have been competitive in non-Vic interstate games under M Harvey: 3/7 wins the other 4 games they beat the line. Bottom line is Port @ $1.20 is dumb. Freo is now @ the +28.5 line but I will wait to see the teams on Thurs night before deciding on that play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Gotta say that I'm not buying into this "mentally weak" thing one little bit... ...mainly because I see their form as readable. Maybe took WC lightly, but have shown consistantly over the last few years they can't stop goals away from home...Eagles kick 19.11... Came up big in the last quarter v. Hawthorn after they'd given up an early lead. Belted by St. Kilda...who wasn't in the first 6 weeks... Came from a long way back to just about get the Kangas, 5 more shots as the Roos pulled 20.5 from somewhere...even so, they leak goals on the road. 8 more shots v. Richmond and rallied late when really under pressure. Given up 35 goals in the last 2 weeks...they do tend to leak goals on the road... ;) :lol Nothing wrong with their home form (besides bad kicking)...but they've had 32, 37, 30 and 32 shots in 4 of their 5 at home (not v. Saints), and they are good things to do so again, given Freo on the road are equal 3rd worst at shots/I50's, with Melbourne (1.89) behind Richmond, and Hawthorn... ...and a pretty poor 51 I50's (-5) to boot. 16.16 is a hell of a lot more than Freo can muster I suspect...even if they did kick 20.9 there last year. Like I said, I can't really trust Port to cover a decent sized spread, but I'll be pretty shocked (and officially on the 'Powerless' wagon) if Freo get up and win. Gone off Richmond (thank god! :D). They really have been falling away badly of late...forgot that Freo were playing with about 16 men last week and still early over-ran them!...Stopped like shot v. Ess as well... ...does look a decent candidate for a Rich/WB HT/FT for you more speculative guys out there... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Crows @ Ess (3.10) Numbers can't split these teams. Overall, home/away, last 5...neither show more than a 3 shot advantage to either team, so happy to take this at anything over 3.00. 2 of their last 3 meetings have been 5 and 12 points...big win by Crows at Dome late last year but 2 injuries in game to Ess (Gumbleton and Fletcher) hurt badly, esp. down back...Crows kicked 19.15 which clearly won't happen this time. 4 of Crows last 7 indoors have been 12 points or less...their 2 games in Melbourne thi year have been 4 points and 17 points (but only 2 shots dif.) 4 of Ess. last 8 have been 4 shots or less dif (v. Geelong, 5 less shots)...3 of them ending inside 15. Freo missing Johnson, Headland, Grover, McPharlin...Haselby and Hill test today...chance of rain Sat night. Crap game to be involved with imo. Now...Richmond first to 25 points...3.55 @ Centrebet, but has to be in the first quarter which I'm not all that thrilled about...but by my maths...Tigers are 4/10...but 3 of last 4 first to 25. Dogs also 2/10 but are 0/8 last 8... ...Bad kicking hurt both teams in first meeting, but pretty sure Tigers were 3.7 (25) to 2.9 (21) midway through to 2nd. New coach, fired up...could easily kick a couple of quick ones early... Massive price you'd have to think... ...come on speculators...help me out here... :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 3, 2009 Author Share Posted June 3, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Freo missing Johnson' date=' Headland, Grover, McPharlin...Haselby and Hill test today...chance of rain Sat night. Crap game to be involved with imo.[/quote'] When I found that out I immediately went off that game. Small correction: Dogs also 3/10 are 1/8 last 8. They nailed the 1st qtr for a change vs the Swans after being 2 goals down. I knew their 1st qtrs were bad but losing 7-in-a row? You make a strong case for the Tigers as my earlier thoughts support this. Only accuracy would be the concern. For $3.55 you would get a fair run but $2.70 to just win the 1st qtr is obviously the safer bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Game Totals are out: RICHMOND vs WESTERN BULLDOGS-Over/Under 200.5 : 1.90 NORTH MELBOURNE vs ST KILDA--Over/Under 176.5 : 1.90 BRISBANE vs CARLTON----------Over/Under 197.5 : 1.90 PORT ADELAIDE vs FREMANTLE---Over/Under 184.5 : 1.90 ESSENDON vs ADELAIDE---------Over/Under 193.5 : 1.90 HAWTHORN vs SYDNEY-----------Over/Under 184.5 : 1.90 WEST COAST vs GEELONG--------Over/Under 197.5 : 1.90 MELBOURNE vs COLLINGWOOD-----Over/Under 188.5 : 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 5, 2009 Author Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Nth Melb +42.5 @ $1.91 Well this bet looked better when NTH MELB In: Power, Pratt, Campbell, Grima Out: Levi Greenwood, Todd Goldstein, Daniel Harris, Aaron Edwards SAINTS In: Hudghton, McEvoy Out: Michael Gardiner (susp), Sam Gilbert (ankle) and then today: NORTH Melbourne is considering possible late changes to its side ahead of Saturday's clash with St Kilda at Docklands, with up to seven players hit by gastro and diarrhoea in the last 48 hours. Coach Dean Laidley said the affected players had been isolated from the rest of the group and a number of them would sit out Friday's final training session. "We'll meet this afternoon to decide who is or who isn't going to play," he said. "We'll wait until this afternoon until we [decide who they are]. If they're not going to play, we'll make that public." :@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@ Pies last 2 wins have been flattered by their pathetic opposition and even though they are near full-strength the Dees have been for the most part competitive since Rnd 3 and will put out a "competitive team" this w/e so I'm expecting them to push the Pies here for this their only "blockbuster home game". Showers are forecast but not game to take the +28.5 for the full game in case the Pies run away with it as they tend to excel in wet conditions but I do expect the Dees to be in it at half time. They have been no worse than under 2 goals behind at 6/10 games this yr, while the Pies have only been > 2 goals ahead at half time in only 1/10 games (won 3.5/10 1st halves). Melb 1/2 time H2H +14.5 @ $1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Brisbane v. Carlton under 197.5 Can only assume that head to head scores are boosting this total...'cause Brisbane have been very good defensively all season... ...in fact, super defensive everywhere. Haven't allowed worse than a shot every 2.00 entries, and their 2.21 av. is 2nd only to St. Kilda. They leak I50's on the road, but allow 51 at home, and better still 49 in their last 5, so tough to see Carlton having more than 25 shots. Given they've scored 67, 81 and 60 on the road this season as it is... Lions have had more than 26 shots just once all season, and Carlton are still pretty good defensively themselves, giving up just 23 shots per game, and 21 over their last 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Geelong @ WC under 195.5 Should have jumped at the 197.5, but happy with this (just!)... ...basically, I can't see there being more than 50 shots in this game, so only some straight kicking could hurt, which neither team are exactly nailing atm. West Coast been surprising good defensively at home, haven't given up more than 88 so far...obviously this is Geelong...but even if they get ~30 shots as expected (100-120), I don't think West Coast can get 20. [29 shots from just 40 I50's @ Adelaide when they were struggling badly defesively.] 21 v. Collingwood, 21 @ Brisbane, 20 v. Carlton, 19 @ St. Kilda. Spead looks about right...110-70? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Collingwood -25.5 Despite all the hype about Melbourne being competative...the numbers don't agree! In fact, in their last 5 games they are getting worse!!! :eek Allowing 54.7 I50's for the season (-10.8) but blowing out to 56.2 in their last 5 (-12.6). Numbers up either end have remained relatively constant, and I just don't see how they keep up with a Collingwood team with it's forward line back up and running. Pies now 5-0 ats when scoring at 2.00 or better...(they've been consistantly +4 I50's, behind only St. Kilda and Geelong)...and should have no problems here v. a Melbourne team allowing 1.89, and have been better than 2.00 defensively just twice all season! (One in the wet v. Adelaide, and a 2.04 v. a terrible Roos) Melbourne have had more than 20 shots just twice all season, Richmond (awful!) and a poor defensive Hawks... ...Pies won the first meeting by 53...Melbourne's luck runs out this week re: straight kicking (them) or horrible kicking (opp). Terribly low spread given a 1 win team...(their 3rd lowest of the season, and lowest in last 6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 5, 2009 Author Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 I'm going to back Geelongs defence for a different reason here. Sunday Specials - Lowest Scoring Team WEST COAST 2.25 SYDNEY 4.50 ADELAIDE 6.00 ESSENDON 9.00 HAWTHORN 9.00 GEELONG 26.00 Hard to make a real case for anyone but the Eagles for this play (2nd worst score and eq 2nd worst score last 2 wks) who are playing Geelong (clear 2nd best defensive side never letting > 20 shots this yr except Haw & WB [correction: Pies as well] - so a 110-70 scoreline would suit me fine) at Subi. The Eagles have the 5th worst attack. Below them are Rich, Freo, Nth and Melb none of which are in this market :) The only real concern is with the Sydney-Hawthorn game and how much the weather plays a role there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 I see Rawlings has been named caretaker. Anyone have any insight into the record that teams have when playing under a new coach (I'm talking about mid-season changes). I know its a big trend in Soccer that lots of punters look for, would be keen to see how this factor affects AFL. Got it massively wrong last week with Freo/Rich, taking the wrong team to choke. Nonetheless, Port have shown themselves to be big chokers in the past season and a half and I don't see why that should change overnight. Also like the fact that inferior teams can red-line it for the start of the game, but can never go on with it - this currently Roos-Saints game a good example. Freo/Port HT/FT double @ 9.8 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Got it massively wrong last week with Freo/Rich' date=' taking the wrong team to choke. Nonetheless, Port have shown themselves to be big chokers in the past season and a half and I don't see why that should change overnight. Also like the fact that inferior teams can red-line it for the start of the game, but can never go on with it - this currently Roos-Saints game a good example. Freo/Port HT/FT double @ 9.8 for me.[/quote'] You make a good point on the red-line factor but maybe focus on the poor starters/dodgy teams only. e.g. Before today, Saints hadn't lost the 1st qtr or 1st half since Rnd 1. And as I say this my Nth +42.5 bet goes out the window in the last few mins of the game. Unfair considering the circumstances therefore not happy at all. :wall:wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 I see Rawlings has been named caretaker. Anyone have any insight into the record that teams have when playing under a new coach (I'm talking about mid-season changes). I know its a big trend in Soccer that lots of punters look for' date= would be keen to see how this factor affects AFL.Yes mate. I for one have a lot of insight into that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Yes mate. I for one have a lot of insight into that. I imagine we'll see something regarding this next week on SP or here. At least I hope so :ok Some Freo player I've never heard of kicked a last 1st half goal to give them the HT lead (Clancy someone?). Lets hope that's Freo's race run and they drop off what I'd like to think was their red-line level :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Some Freo player I've never heard of kicked a last 1st half goal to give them the HT lead (Clancy someone?). Lets hope that's Freo's race run and they drop off what I'd like to think was their red-line level :hope Clancy Pearce, 1st-gamer, and yes Port end up winning comfortably in the end. Great win CP :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Cheers mate. That's the 3rd week in a row that Freo have let a 1st half lead result in a loss. I think last year they did it 5 times in 6-7 weeks, so it's something I'm going to be looking for in future weeks too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 I imagine we'll see something regarding this next week on SP or here. At least I hope so :ok Some Freo player I've never heard of kicked a last 1st half goal to give them the HT lead (Clancy someone?). Lets hope that's Freo's race run and they drop off what I'd like to think was their red-line level :hopeJust thought I'd answer your question very honestly, Oscar. I hope that helped? News just through that all HT or HT/FT betting on the Port game has been declared null & void. Something to do with siren error or something. 'Clancee'! Get up with it mate! :@ As a matter of fact Freo had half a side of players I never even knew were alive. New coach syndrome In 2004 I got totally lambasted at another website for declaring the syndrome had a brilliant record. It was pointed out to the loose brained bozo I am that the long term strike rate only runs at about 50% (I believe it's hit at significantly above that since??), and that's not at all what could be called brilliant :spank. Fair enough I guess, because so what if most run out at odds of 3.00/4.00, odds don't matter, only winners. Otherwise if I myself didn't think only in terms of odds I wouldn't lose all the money I do - YOU CANNOT WIN BY WORKING WITH ODDS, ONLY PICKING WINNERS WILL GET YOU A PROFIT. I think the last one of note was was Harvey for Connolly Rd-16 2007 where I got 3.48 Freo to win over adelaide at AAMI - Adel 15.11 (101) def by Freo 20.6 (126), in an inspired effort where they went from a bunch of rabble to playing like a top-4 side, in six days. I fell into Richmond last night thinking the shackles would somehow be loosened (I've lost the plot lately, I think :$ [they were a touch of value though IMO ;)] - TFC for Carlton tonight :notworthy) but the insipid effort from the Richmond players last night seemed to say it all :$ . "Poor draft picks" (well, they drafted Wallace ahead of Eade). "No other coach would do any better with that group of players" I don't buy into all that rubbish. West Coast at Docklands next week and I'm already thinking Richmond >39 & Tambling for BOG ... and to go on to win the Brownlow, Rioli 2nd, Dal Santo 3rd. (BTW, WBD emerging as sneaky threat, IMO, not that my forms much to go on lately ;) :$). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 7, 2009 Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Very unlucky oz... ...down to 17 men for most of the last quarter made the difference far greater than it shuold have been. And nice job Hidden Tiger, wish I wasn't quite as conservative as I am sometimes... :cheers ......does look a decent candidate for a Rich/WB HT/FT for you more speculative guys out there... :unsure :sad I seem to remember something similar Ash...no data to back me up, but yeah, I think it's only slightly below 50/50, and as you say, given the odds... :ok ...although, as you also elluded to (probably unwittingly!) that depending on today's result, there's every chance they'll be favs at home v. WC anyway. :\ Like the theory of your WC lowest toady, oz...but I'd be a bit concerned about the Swans. Have only had 24+ shots twice in their last 8, both at home (Stadium Oz and SCG) v. poor travelling teams. (WC ad Port). Haven't scored over 88 @ MCG in 6 trips since 2007, 75 and 69 last year... ...and have scored 67 or less in 3 of 4 interstate trips this year...an unrealistic 16.4 @ Freo was still only 20 shots. Hawthorn really been struggling up forward too...I've been watching Franklin (for Super Coaching reasons ;)), but it's not so much him, or his work rate, but the delivery into the forwards has been terrible all year. Anyone got any great recolection of why the first meeting in Sydney was such a high scorer? It's the one game that doesn't make sense for either side on the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 7, 2009 Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Anyone got any great recolection of why the first meeting in Sydney was such a high scorer? It's the one game that doesn't make sense for either side on the season?Don't know, but I do recall watching it and thinking it's unusually high scoring for no obvious reason. It was the night Jolly smashed them (record taps) with Renouf alone in the ruck. Hawthorn had their weakest side for the season in and were also rather underdone in preparation at that point. Sydney themselves were missing a couple of goal-kickers. Things were different, so I suspect you could just about toss it in bin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 7, 2009 Author Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 'Clancee'! Get up with it mate! :@ As a matter of fact Freo had half a side of players I never even knew were alive. Yes my mistake. Clancee Pearce :$ Was still crying in my beer over Nth :cry I like the look most of those "unknown players" and hope we can see more of them. In 2004 I got totally lambasted at another website for declaring the syndrome had a brilliant record. It was pointed out to the loose brained bozo I am that the long term strike rate only runs at about 50% (I believe it's hit at significantly above that since??)' date=' and that's not at all what could be called brilliant :spank. Fair enough I guess, because so what if most run out at odds of 3.00/4.00, odds don't matter, only winners. Otherwise if I myself didn't think only in terms of odds I wouldn't lose all the money I do - YOU CANNOT WIN BY WORKING WITH ODDS, ONLY PICKING WINNERS WILL GET YOU A PROFIT.[/quote'] Don't want to know which forum that would be besides, aren't those loose brained bozos always right? :tongue2 Tell the whole world when they win and not a peep when they lose. When they look back at their figures (which they never keep) they'll tell you they're always ahead ;) Here's to those loose brain bozos :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 7, 2009 Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 1 I50 difference...1 shot difference and I can't hit a :wall :@ That was a terrible last 2:30 to watch...the ball spent the entire time in Ess forward line...the Bombers even had their hands on it there for a couple of seconds...:puke A couple of late Swan goals would be handy here oz... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 8, 2009 Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 I get the feeing that the Demons will be competitive for parts of tomorrow's game, particularly given there recent history in Queen's Birthday games. Don't really believe they'll lead at the break but I think they could go into it not too far behind. HT lead of 1-12 for the Pies @ 4.75 looks the goods to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted June 8, 2009 Author Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 A couple of late Swan goals would be handy here oz... Woulda coulda shoulda. I thought the 75pts would've still been enough. Then Eagles won the clearances 29-24 I think and pull 21 shots (with their usual conversion rate) out of 35 I50s as well. Cats back 6 not the same w/o Harley and H Taylor :cry But hey, you got the total and the Pies did the right thing today so a marginal loss, not as bad as a wipeout :cheers Rest and reload for next round :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 8, 2009 Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Yeah...frustrating tho isn't it...(literally) 1 point here, 2 points there... :wall I know it all evens out, and I was lucky to get the Gee/Ess under last week, but it would be nice if things went our way every time! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 9, 2009 Share Posted June 9, 2009 Re: AFL Round 11 Just to belt out a point before I even look at rd. 12 odds... Crows/Ess...386/395 pos (not that that means the world)...25/24 shots...53/52 I50's...43/43 clearances...38/40 clangers... ...reckon it could be a close one... :wall Ahhh...move on me... :beer:zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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