AFL Round 7

[ozgamer]

Okay fellas I'm going to get the ball rolling here. Richmond v Brisbane Think the Tiges are the way to go even w/o Richo. Had the Swans over a barrel after being down by 33 pts before Mattner's tackle and 2 late Swans goals saved the day. Lions as favs in Melb is not a good thing even after a controlled win at home (vs Bombers). Richmond have won 4 and drawn once in the last 5 vs the Lions, the last 3 times were in Melb and the Richos were favs each time so Richmond @ $2.00 is a good price this time I feel. Edit: Here's a few more for good measure. Nth Melb v Port Port hammered Nth the last these 2 played. Nth are going nowhere fast and we should see the same here again as Port will look to string 2 together. Don't think the Pies are any better than Port and they opened at lower odds so I'll take Port @ -15.5 ($1.91). WCE v Melb Loathe to take $1.22 the Eagles at home but it should be a soda as their form is much better than their record suggests. 2/3 home this yr and beaten the line 2/3 away (both games could've won) and are playing Melbourne who are unfortunately NOT playing at the MCG this week :P Melb are 0/ last 8 (incl at the line) at Subi, their last 12 games interstate (2007 onwards) they have lost by margins of 40+ and beaten the line only once by 1 pt vs the Swans at Maunka (2008). Woosha is wielding the axe this time so the Eagles will be expected to win and win big on what looks like another warm Perth day. Eagles @ 40+ ($2.48). Coll v St K Pies tend to relish the underdog tag but the Saints are too irresistible atm. They have won their last 6 games (beaten the line 5 times), have won their last 9 games at the Docklands (beaten the line 7 times), and won 8 out of last 10 as favs. The Pies lose Anthony (accurate goal-scorer) and maybe Medhurst (a match-winner) and both Rocca and Cloke are struggling as well and are missing Didak to boot so they will struggle to score against a miserly defence so this will be no different for the Saints. Saints @ -16.5 ($1.91).

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 7 Nice write-up Oz. Wouldn't touch the Eagles/Melbourne game with a pole. Hawks to regain Gilham and Birchall (both trained Tuesday but will confirm on Thursday during the session). Hawks have the wood over the Scum of late, and with Fletcher out, and no sign of a ruckman (meanwhile, Taylor got off his rough conduct charge). With Roughead kicking 8 last week and Buddy ready to hit some form, not sure that Essendon have the troups in defence to quell them. Knights has also come out and said that Lucas won't be playing (take that with a grain of salt) due to his poor form. Cats in a canter despite losing little Gary. I believe that Ling and perhaps Harley could return from injury this week. Like Oz said with Port, I reckon there are some mental scars there for the Roos. Just can't see them kicking a winning score. Dogs going for 4 losses in a row! :eek;) Seriously, I thought they were fairly solid against the Saints last week whereis the Crows were once again poor. I nearly pidgen hole the Crows forward the same as the Roos. Don't think the Dogs will let this one slip. Speaking of the Saints, reckon they are a lock against the Pies. Anthony out will hurt the Pies. Pretty generous line IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 A messy lot of games this week again I reckon... ...the toughest tipping year I can remember just about ever! :wall Impossible to take the Hawks as big favs still imo...still have NOT won clearances or contested possies in a game so far! Dead set lucky v. West Coast...better last week, but still lucky to win. Equally as impossible to trust Essendon tho...equal with Melbourne for the fewest clearances...although, now I look closer, 6 goals does look like a hell of a lot... :unsure I'm with you tho oz...WC -28.5 looks a definate. :ok Freo should give last week's points back!...-4 I50's, -5 Clearance, -11 contested and of course 7 less shots. Last 2 years @ Perth, Melbourne have lost by 77, 59 & 46. Last week's "gallant" loss was blown up by the 15.21 Geelong kicked. Fine weather forecast, should be a big Eagles win. Port lost both games after the Showdown last year (both at home)...but did win both in 2007... ...just seems too easy doesn't it. Kangas haven't had more than 26 shots all year...Port av'ing over 30 per game if we take out the St. Kilda problem everyone is having! Only 5 more shots v. Hawks tho, who get their hands on it less and have a far worse D...tempted by the 1.45, not sure I could trust the 15. :\

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 7 Easy week of betting for me... I go for essendon and i know we'll get slaughtered $20 on all of these ? Hawks to win by 60+ Hawks to win by over 39.5 Hawks Over 15.5 Saints Line Saints Over 39.5 St Kilda Over 15.5 Saints Win Carlton Line carlton Win Carlton Over 39.5 Carlton/Carlton Carlton Over 15.5 Geelong Win Sydney Line Geelong Under 39.5 Richmond Win Richmond Under 39.5 Richmond Line Port Win Port Line Port Over 39.5 West Coast Win West Coast Over 15.5 round 7 Highest score; Hawthorn Hawthorn Highest Margin.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7

Port lost both games after the Showdown last year (both at home)...but did win both in 2007... ...just seems too easy doesn't it. Kangas haven't had more than 26 shots all year...Port av'ing over 30 per game if we take out the St. Kilda problem everyone is having! Only 5 more shots v. Hawks tho, who get their hands on it less and have a far worse D...tempted by the 1.45, not sure I could trust the 15. :\

You said similar about the Pies last week Taz and I know hindsight is a wonderful thing but Nth have no chance in keeping it close unless it's a low-scoring dour-fest. They are lacking serious goal-scoring power: S Grant (retired), N Thompson (delisted now at VFL), Harvey (injured), Jones (out of form?), Campbell (injured but maybe back). The only plus has been the return of Edwards. On top of that they've lost key defenders Pratt and Hansen and midfielder Wells who when fit can't hold his form anyway. The team that nobody talks about (other than punters) looks in pretty bad shape this year. Understand the mistrust with Port after their 2 shockers (WCE and Saints) but you have to ask yourself could Nth even get close? The $2.70 on offer I would expect when typical Nth are playing well and based on that and the non-Shinboner rubbish they are serving up now, they are playing more like a $4.00+ team I feel. My rant is over :tongue2

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 Any chance they rest Kerr this week? He did struggle with injury in the derby. I actually like the West Coast spread regardless. Guess I'm out of ideas (being male I never had any to start with ;)) but sent mum a card and a Hawthorn/WBD/Saints @ 3.26 multi today. Too disciplined to ever take such a bookies friend bet type myself but I'm sure she'll be pleased when this one lands, particularly seeing she's a doggies fan, which isn't really the main reason they're included - I do fancy the dogs a lot this week.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7

Any chance they rest Kerr this week? He did struggle with injury in the derby. I actually like the West Coast spread regardless.

He was reported to have severe cramping and vomiting in the derby so based on that he wasn't injured and he seems to have pulled up fine. They generally can play w/o him but 2nd half last week was a poor example of that.

Guess I'm out of ideas (being male I never had any to start with ;)) but sent mum a card and a Hawthorn/WBD/Saints @ 3.26 multi today. Too disciplined to ever take such a bookies friend bet type myself but I'm sure she'll be pleased when this one lands' date=' particularly seeing she's a doggies fan, which isn't really the main reason they're included - I do fancy the dogs a lot this week.[/quote'] Doggies should win based on the "lose to the Saints, win next week" theory of 2009. Just ask the Swans, Crows, Eagles, Freo and Port :) Seriously, I think it's line ball as the bookies have it and may turn out to be a low scoring tight game like last time.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 7 Sorry for jumping on late. Can confirm that both Gilham and Birchall trained and should be available for the game. Despite the media reports, there's no chance of Ellis playing (Clarko likes to give guys that haven't played a fitness block of 2-3 weeks before coming back).

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 7

Sorry for jumping on late. Can confirm that both Gilham and Birchall trained and should be available for the game. Despite the media reports, there's no chance of Ellis playing (Clarko likes to give guys that haven't played a fitness block of 2-3 weeks before coming back).

Blah - why did I bother sitting in the rain........ :wall

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 :D Still happy not to get involved tonight. Would usually be looking at the Bombers and maybe an under, but that backline scares the hell out of me. Finding it hard to pick a Rich/Bris winner too. Lions really could have beaten Carlton last trip to Melbourne...who are a mile better than Richmond...but they still haven't had more than 26 shots all season, and that was last week at home. Richmond haven't toppeed 94 points, and now no Richo... Somewhat strangely I think it will be a high scorer...although again, who knows what kind of total we'll see! :\ Brisbane D has been over-blown due to 4 of 6 at home...bit hard to judge away form with the trip to Geelong...but either way, they are allowing 57 I50's per game! 110 I50's last year n the Dome with a crap load of shots in a game that was tight all night... I think Brisbane have the better personel, but still... Geelong win, but by how much? These Richmond/Melbourne type games are becoming a bit too common to trust high spreads...due almost exclusively to rubbish kicking for goal. Who knows? :wall Pretty sure you've talked me into Port again oz...Kangas bring in Cambell and Ross to try to kick start some scoring, but it does look a big ask. Happy with the ML tho I think. Think I'm also happy with the 1.30 for the Blues. 4 of 6 at home for Freo, and last week was a joke...Av'ing just 45 I50's per game, the fewest in the league, up against a surprisingly good defensive midfield of Carlton (allowing the 4th fewest), just don't see how Freo get enough chances to kick a wining score. Dockers also have the worst defensive numbers, allowing a shot every 1.78 entries, so will have to do better than break even in entries to have a chance. Won't happen. 4 goals could be a little bit tight given the neutral ground, but tough to see Carlton dropping this one. Crows/Doggies ay? It's absolutely a game the Dogs should win. Crows with big problems up forward, but the Dogs only having 25 shots v. Carlton is a concern. Reason why the Crows have been losing games this year (esp. home) is at the other end! Normally solid D, but allowing a shot every 1.86, and 1.64 at home!!! :eek (Geelong and maybe Port skew that...but Dogs every bit as good as Port) Happy tht the last 3 have all been "explainable" Doggy losses, but this is a real test... ...tough to take them as small favs tho. :\ Not convinced the Saints are such good things either. Collingwood like to be that hard pressing, hard tackling team that just may worry St. Kilda. Dogs managed it for a quarter and a half, but lack of big forwards meant too much running for the midfield... ...which, as you guys have pointed out, could well be the Pies' problem as well. Are Leigh Brown and Travis Cloke any better than Robert Murphy or Big Willy? :$ Interested in a total...if I see 1.50 somewhere I might have a bite at the Saints too. :ok Good Luck gang. :cheers West Coast -28.5 Tempted by the under tonight, but would have liked just a few more points... :\

[MeloX]

Re: AFL Round 7 Hawks ML Hawks -32.5 I like these 2 picks for tonight alot

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 Good Luck MeloX...not much value in that 1.12 now tho... :( Port/Carlton (1.88) Going with the double. Go Hawks tonight...Need Franklin to have a big game for my SC team! :unsure

[MeloX]

Re: AFL Round 7 thanks i need Franklin to fire up big time his my dt and sc captain coz Gablett is injured now :( btw i got the odds at 1.22 betfair 2 days ago

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 Would have thought there were many better options for Cpt. given Buddy's form MeloX...I just want him to top 80 for a change! :spank Went with Goddard myself (SC)...Cox for DT. In a SC League for $$...thought I was a pretty good thing to win, but it seems everyone else in it has the same idea... ...our League is 6th overall :eek (out of 25,686)...and that's with about 2200 points "missing" due to one of the guys getting caught up in the lock-out before Rd. 1 and not submitting a team for the first week. Some crazy scores going on. Anyway...back to the real stuff...Bombers going alright here...and Franklin clearly about 60% max?...struggling anyway.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 Changed my tune slightly here... Brisbane @ Richmond under 192.5 (1.90 Global) Didn't realise it was at the 'G...Brisbane have had problems scoring here, even in 2004-05 when they were big favs...have only topped 92 one time in their last 9 games. Both teams struggling up forward this season...Brisbane haven't topped 26 shots, Tiges only 2 games over 23 shots (Melbourne and Kangas, both rubbish)...and still only scored 94 v. the Roos anyway as their highest score. Both teams allowing a lot of I50's, but not sure either have the forward capabilities to take advantage. Not the best day for football in Melbourne, I reckon both teams will struggle to hit 100.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 7

Would have thought there were many better options for Cpt. given Buddy's form MeloX...I just want him to top 80 for a change! :spank Went with Goddard myself (SC)...Cox for DT. In a SC League for $$...thought I was a pretty good thing to win, but it seems everyone else in it has the same idea... ...our League is 6th overall :eek (out of 25,686)...and that's with about 2200 points "missing" due to one of the guys getting caught up in the lock-out before Rd. 1 and not submitting a team for the first week. Some crazy scores going on. Anyway...back to the real stuff...Bombers going alright here...and Franklin clearly about 60% max?...struggling anyway.

Out of curiosity, do any of you guys play any of the fantasy Superstars market on Sportingbet?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 No, Crouchy, I haven't. A lot of book now have DT head to heads and group bets...but yeah, the 'game' as such at SB where you pick a side and bet on the points is interesting. I've been waiting for a week with 3 or 4 really lop-sided games to load up and try for an over 1700, but just hasn't happened yet. Liked the look of Davey in a group with Embly, Selwood, Bruce and Morton...but Morton could be a definate danger. I must be getting old anyway...tend to forget about half of the betting options out there now!... ...like last night. I posted that at HT...didn't even occur to me about a HT line. Can only assume that the Bombers would have still been paying 3.50ish?? With Bateman out, and the Ess backline on top, the game was clearly in the balance. Oh well...

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 7

No, Crouchy, I haven't. A lot of book now have DT head to heads and group bets...but yeah, the 'game' as such at SB where you pick a side and bet on the points is interesting. I've been waiting for a week with 3 or 4 really lop-sided games to load up and try for an over 1700, but just hasn't happened yet. Liked the look of Davey in a group with Embly, Selwood, Bruce and Morton...but Morton could be a definate danger. I must be getting old anyway...tend to forget about half of the betting options out there now!... ...like last night. I posted that at HT...didn't even occur to me about a HT line. Can only assume that the Bombers would have still been paying 3.50ish?? With Bateman out, and the Ess backline on top, the game was clearly in the balance. Oh well...

Yeah, they had the Betfair odd's at the breaks during the game. Scum were $6.50 before the bounce, $4.50 quarter time, $3.50 half time and about $1.45 3/4 time. Think I'll go and find a rock to hide under now. :cry:wall

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 7

Easy week of betting for me... I go for essendon and i know we'll get slaughtered $20 on all of these ? Hawks to win by 60+ Hawks to win by over 39.5 Hawks Over 15.5 Saints Line Saints Over 39.5 St Kilda Over 15.5 Saints Win Carlton Line carlton Win Carlton Over 39.5 Carlton/Carlton Carlton Over 15.5 Geelong Win Sydney Line Geelong Under 39.5 Richmond Win Richmond Under 39.5 Richmond Line Port Win Port Line Port Over 39.5 West Coast Win West Coast Over 15.5 round 7 Highest score; Hawthorn Hawthorn Highest Margin.

:@ i cant take a trick this weekend

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 Dogs/Crows under 180.5 (1.71)...[saver on 181-200] (Using the 3 way total @ Centrebet) Seems very high. Much like last year the Crows play very conservative at home...I know they've played Geelong and St. Kilda, but still, just 44 I50's per game...allowing only 46. Dogs, despite looking like they're in fast forward most of the time are still only getting about 48 I50's per game. 3 of the last 4 meetings @ AAMI have been 180 or less...and they were all with the Crows kicking 100+ which is unlikely today. Only one Crows game this season has topped 184 and it took Geelong to kick 21.9 for it to happen...Dogs have only had >25 shots twice all season, again unlikely here.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 What an unbelievable weekend this has been! :wall West Coast had +14 I50's, 13 extra shots and barely sneak home... Doggies go inside 50 61 times!!...Almost unheard of v. Adelaide...still Eagleton goals with 2 seconds left in the first half (from 55) and Knights 'seals' the loss with 45 seconds left. The biggest joke of the week continues to be Freo...46-58 I50's, 3 less shots...Carlton had the ball for almost 10 minutes in the 3rd quarter, 8-1 I50's and managed just 5 points. The worst thing about the Dovkers is that they just happen to play the other horribly over-rated team in the comp at home next week. Can't take a trick. St. Kilda v. Collingwood under 189.5 Saints, allowing an amazing 39 I50's so far, not allowed over 21 shots... Collingwood have really only played 1 good defensive team so far and had 25 shots @ Brisbane...and have only given up more than 93 points one time to the red-hot Cats. Also have to assume the 'Friday Night' mentality comes here with the Pies. Big game on a big stage, which has meant concentrate defensively for Malthouse coached Collingwood teams. Teams a combined 3-9 under this number so far. 4 of the last 5 meetings under, and the over only had 47 shots in a game where Collingwod had 50 I50's, which is unlikely here.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 7

What an unbelievable weekend this has been! :wall West Coast had +14 I50's, 13 extra shots and barely sneak home... Doggies go inside 50 61 times!!...Almost unheard of v. Adelaide...still Eagleton goals with 2 seconds left in the first half (from 55) and Knights 'seals' the loss with 45 seconds left. The biggest joke of the week continues to be Freo...46-58 I50's, 3 less shots...Carlton had the ball for almost 10 minutes in the 3rd quarter, 8-1 I50's and managed just 5 points. The worst thing about the Dovkers is that they just happen to play the other horribly over-rated team in the comp at home next week. Can't take a trick. St. Kilda v. Collingwood under 189.5 Saints, allowing an amazing 39 I50's so far, not allowed over 21 shots... Collingwood have really only played 1 good defensive team so far and had 25 shots @ Brisbane...and have only given up more than 93 points one time to the red-hot Cats. Also have to assume the 'Friday Night' mentality comes here with the Pies. Big game on a big stage, which has meant concentrate defensively for Malthouse coached Collingwood teams. Teams a combined 3-9 under this number so far. 4 of the last 5 meetings under, and the over only had 47 shots in a game where Collingwod had 50 I50's, which is unlikely here.

And add to that Leon Davis and Medhurst are both late withdrawals!

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7

And add to that Leon Davis and Medhurst are both late withdrawals!

Must be why the Saints are into $1.36 now. Anyone still think the Pies are a chance?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7

Must be why the Saints are into $1.36 now. Anyone still think the Pies are a chance?

Can get 1.44 Stan James, who will possibly let you on for as much as about eight bucks, should there be anyone here who bets that big :loon. I always think every team's a chance, but haven't fancied the price Collingwood all week. Biggest worry now for my money on Saints is any complacency factor that could occur from seeing a weakened opp.