Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Sandown 2.40 Fit To Drive 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Impressive winner over C&D in November. Raised 10lbs for that, but McLernon offsets 3 pounds and I think he could still be well handicapped. Has won off 125 in the past behind Le Burf at Kempton. With the jockey allowance he's just 1lb higher than his Kempton winning mark and track and ground will suit. Trainer in good form and despite the competitive nature of this race, I think race will be run to suit and McLernon is just the rider this horse needs in the absence of Noel Fehily. Needs to be delivered late and will be powering up the hill.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 12.10 Larks Lad 0.5pt EW - 12/1 Very lightly raced and unexposed. Finished 6th in a valuable G3 handicap at Sandown and fell upped in trip at Ayr. I think we'll see the best of him over 3 miles and no surprise he's over this trip today. Yard continues in grand style and no worries about fitness with the connections involved. Surprised he's so weak in the market this morning, but I think he's potentially very well handicapped and should get involved today. Newbury 1.50 Sweet My Lord 1pt EW - 20/1 (antepost)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Sandown 4.30 Grey Wulff 0.75pt win - 13/2 Grey Wulff 0.75pt place - 1.74 Taking the 3 places at Betfair, because he looks nailed on to be in the frame. Pity the Pipe horse is a NR. The price would have been big and I think my selection would have beaten him. The odds-on favorite bolted up last week, but is too short in the market and the novice hurdle Grey Wullf contested lto could be very strong. The horses he split are running a very competitive novice hurdle at Newbury. I think the fav can be taken on here and the Ema Lavelle fellow could give him a run for the money on his handicap debut.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Sandown 5.00 Cloud Nine 0.5pt EW - 66/1 Caught my eye last season when 5th in a novice chase at Exeter. On the bridle until the home straight disputing lead with Take The Breeze and Copper Bleu. Tired and finished 5th in the end, but all the horses in front of him were rated in the 130+. Ran two decent races in handicaps last year finishing 3rd and 2nd. Suited by right handed tracks and despite the flop in a hunter chase lto, I think he's a good horse and a top conditional has been booked to ride today. Worth a gamble at 66s I'd say.

Why on earth did he chase the silly pace?! :unsure Traveled so well, but tired in the end. With restraint might have had a chance for a place.

[mileni4uk]

Ascot 2.25 Exmoor Ranger 1pt EW - 10/1 Lads Exmoor Ranger will like the conditions tomorrow. Been plugging on behind decent horses in 2 competitive handicaps this season. His jumping improved a lot at Cheltenham and I still think he has a big win in him. The Welsh National didn't suit him and smaller field and Ascot will be more to his liking. The race over C&D in the beginning of the season, where he finished 4th was probably a better race than tomorrow's. The fav looks unexposed, but Breedsbreeze might struggle to carry the weight over 3 miles, Ogee made too many mistakes lto and prefers left handed tracks. Burren Legend needs further trip. And few of the others will struggle with their hikes after recent wins.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 3.20 Major Malarkey 1pt EW - 10/1 Fred, Hills Some serious form from this fellow so far this season. Came back after a long absence to win at Chepstow carrying 11-11 and I was really impressed with him that day. He did it after year and a half away off the tracks. Beat Honorable Arthur and Bobby Gee, both of whom have went on to win since. Continued his improvement with a 3rd at Bangor. Split Buffalo Bob and Minella Boys. The former won his next race and got raised 10 lbs. The latter has won and finished 2nd since and has shot up the weights too. In his last run, he beat Promising Anshan and Ikorodu Road. The Paul Nicholls sort ran a great race at Wincanton last month just failing to beat Cornish Sett. Ikorodu Road was running a big race in the Newbury fog when falling at the last and looking like the winner. All in all, I don't think 10lb raise will stop this Twiston-Davies improver and Sam offsetting 3lbs is only gonna help his cause tomorrow. Off low weight and with yard amongst the winners, I think he'll run a big race tomorrow.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 4.15 Aerial 0.25pt win - 5/1 Coral, VC Tamadot 0.75pt win - 9/1 Bet365, VC Double Dash 0.75pt win - 9/1 Coral, VC Tamadot was disappointing lto, but his form previous to that was very good and dropped to 119 I expect him to show a lot more today. Double Dash is not the most genuine sort you can have a bet on, but since the beginning of the year he's looked a very good chaser. Twice 2nd in novice events with both races looking strong form. On a handicap debut for trainer in form, he can outrun his price today. Will also have a saver on Aerial, who holds a Cheltenham festival entry could be thrown in here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 2.00 Cashel Blue 1pt EW - 25/1 Boyle, Paddy, VC Bolted up in terrible conditions at Newton Abbot in September for only his 2nd run for this trainer. Then chased home Quinz over fences for a long way before jockey giving up and easing him into 2nd beating a very good Collin Tizard novice. Used to be a good horse for the Alners and has won off 113 in the past, so today's 104 looks lenient. This is his handicap chase debut and considering he finished only 2L behind Synchronized over this course over hurdles and that he jumped like a dream lto over fences, I think he'll go close today. Just hope he's fit and ready after 90 days off the track.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 4.50 Ben Cee Pee M 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Paddy Very interesting handicap debutant for Oliver Sherwood. 3rd and 4th over 2 miles in novices and both races look pretty decent. Stayed on pretty well in the Towcester mud lto to suggest today's trip will suit. Not too sure about the two market leaders in the race. Molly Round won 2 weak races and despite being impressive, it remains to be seen if she can defy a 19lb hike. King Of Leon was backed lto and finished 3rd, but has been very disappointing previously and I'm also not sure about by the form of Emma Lavelle's yard. She had a few in the last couple of weeks that didn't finish their races.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Hereford 4.50 Quilver Tatou 0.75pt win - 7/1 Star Galaxy 0.25pt win - 13/2 Abey M'Boy 0.25pt win - 9/2 With the desperate ground at Hereford, I think this will go to a horse carrying light weight. The Charlie Mann Quilver Tatou looks very well off only 10-4 and the field concedes a lot of weight to him. His form looks pretty decent too. 2 miles at a specialists track like Folkestone didn't suit lto and he made mistakes. His form previous to that is pretty decent. 2nd to Massini Sunset on his penultimate start, but the Richard Mitchell horse won again since and I think the form will be reversed. Pete The Feat, who was 3rd in the race that day has also won since. In April Quilver Tatou chased home Sarahs Gift, who has won few times since then and I think first time blinkers and return to 2m4f will suit the Charlie Mann yardstick. He looks the most unexposed and is the main selection. Star Galaxy had a great season last year and is a lot better over fences than over hurdles. Return to the big obstacles might see him in better light and he's won off just 4lbs lower. Abey M'Boy is also unexposed. 3rd behind Burton Port in a bumper. 2nd behind Grands Crus over hurdles. Bolted up in a novice chase in the Uttoxeter mud and upped in trip could see him run a nice race today. Savers on the John Flint and Oliver Sherwood yardsticks with Quilver Tatou the main bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Carlisle 3.10 Bureaucrat 0.5pt EW - 14/1 The stiff uphill finish and the track should suit him, the heavy ground too. Contested a hot race lto and was far from disgraced. Used to be rated a lot higher in the past and the 3rd to Spirit River at Cheltenham off 2lbs higher reads well. With many here having questions to answer, I think Bureaucrat can get involved and at the price he makes a very good EW appeal.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Carlisle 3.40 Overlady 0.5pt EW - 7/1 Wouldn't normally bet on a horse coming back after 2 years off and having been pulled up lto, but I've got a free bet at one of the bookies and decided to have an interest. Used to be very progressive 2 years ago and took this race in style. Been off the track for a long time and didn't show much sparkle on recent hurdling bow, but I think the target was always gonna be today. If ready, she would go very close.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ludlow 4.20 Ballabrook 0.75pt EW - 8/1 Mr Chippy 0.5pt win - 4/1 Ballabrook's been disappointing this season, but actually in far better form than most of these and could run a race here. Record at Ludlow reads 1,2 and when 2nd he was unlucky to lose by a head. Should stay the trip and jockey is very good value for his claim. Mr Chippy ran really well lto and off 90 could be very well handicapped if he builds on that. With this trainer you just don't know what to expect, but I have to save on him, because he could be very well in here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Grand National Ballabriggs 2pt win - 33/1

Grand National The Midnight Club 1.5pt EW - 25/1

So far, so good :D Midnight Chase 0.25pt win - 119/1 @ Betfair Enough money available at 100 and 110 at the moment. I know the owners aren't very keen to run him here, but if he finishes a good 3rd or 4th in the Gold Cup I think they might rethink. Even off 11-8 I think he can run a big race. Aintree is made for him and he'll go close. If he was mine, I'd go Grand National personally. A speculative one, but if he lines up, he has a 16/1 chance in my book :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Sandown 4.35 River Indus 0.75pt EW - 11/1 Ran another solid 2nd lto and just can't get his nose infront. He's not ungenuine though, just a bit one paced. Despite his good form on good ground, I think today's softer surface and stiff 3 miles will suit. Record at Sandown reads 1,2,2 and I think he'll run another solid race. Few unexposed types here, but River Indus is perfectly capable of getting involved and yard is in great form.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Warwick 3.50 Bench Warrent 1pt win - 9/2 Unlucky in the Welsh National when falling 4 out. Traveling well at the time. Getting outpaced over 3 miles every time and really needs this trip. Interesting race today with fav and 2nd fav well suited by conditions, but I think my selection is a very good horse and today's trip will get the best out of him. Especially on this ground and track, might be tough to peg back.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Navan 3.20 Up The Beat 0.5pt EW - 7/1 Like I said last time, not the best horse in the yard, but a reliable sort. Ran a lot better lto and I expect even more improvement today. Fav looks interesting, but is on the short side in the market and my selection could get involved again.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Kempton 3.00 Bakbenscher 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Ran really well lto at Exeter and I think the penny has finally dropped over fences. Unexposed over 3 miles and yard continues well. If he jumps like he did at Exeter, he'll run a big race. Always regarded as a talented horse and could be well handicapped.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newcastle 2.15 Reindeer Dippin 1pt EW - 5/1 Won off 132 over fences and every chance off 126 today over hurdles. Additional 7lbs from the talented claimer and he should run well for top yard.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newcastle 3.15 Ballyfoy 0.75pt EW - 9/1 3 from 4 on heavy ground and this trip will suit. Held in the welsh national, but that was off higher mark. Has won off today's mark and he'll be staying on when others have had enough. Just hope he's not far away from the leaders when the real stamina kicks in.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Kempton 4.45 Coup Royale 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Very lightly raced and probably didn't stay 3 miles on seasonal reappearance. Today's 2m4f will suit more and I think he'll do a lot better. Yard is slowly finding its form after a quiet spell.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Kempton 3.00 Mostly Bob 0.75pt EW - 11/1 Lightly raced sort, who bolted up off top weight lto and hike in weights might not stop him. Yard always does well in this race and there could be more to come.

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 on a very tough day, 2 nice winners in there Mileni :clap racing seems tough at the moment, but the mileni shines through :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 You keep knocking 'em in :clap great stuff Mileni

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Thanks :ok Leopardstown 4.25 Red Vinto 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Prefers better ground, but handles soft and could be very well handicapped here. Feather weight can help him and I think he's been a bit overpriced this morning.

[stewartd14]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Hitting form at the right time ;)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Hitting form at the right time ;)

Never been out of form, just out of luck. The 25/1 and 80/1 2nds hurt this month. It'll come good though :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Plumpton 3.20 Rushwee 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Unlucky to fall at Leicester 2 out when in front, but obliged at Wetherby running out an easy winner few days later. Form of both races has been franked. The horse that went on to win the race at Leicester (Dormouse) has won again since. The horse that chased him home at Wetherby Last Of The Bunch won two weeks ago. I think Uttoxeter might have come too soon being 3rd run in 2 weeks. Has been given 30 days off the track and should be fresh today. 8lbs higher in the weights for the Wetherby win, but I think he had a lot in hand that day and talented Matt Crawley takes 7 pounds off his back. Expecting Rushwee to outrun his price in a race, where the bigger priced are badly out of form and the 3 market leaders all have a question or two to answer.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Triumph Hurdle Zarkandar 1pt EW 10/1 + 0.5pt win 10/1 Really impressed me at the weekend. Considering it was softer side of good to soft, he ran in a genuine quick ground time. Hard to win the Triumph after just 1 run, but the nature of the race has changed with the introduction of the Fred Winter. Many horses go the handicap route. The jumping was pretty good for a debut and despite it being a risky bet, I think it's an uninspiring crop of juveniles and this fella is overpriced.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Plumpton 4.50 Rebel Melody 0.5pt EW - 9/1 I don't know why Deep Pockets is shortening and Rebel is drifting. On C&D form two runs back the form should be upheld. My selection carried 2lbs more and beat Deep by 3L. Today he'll carry 2lbs less. Interesting little race, I wasn't going to play initially, but Rebel at 9s looks overpriced and he could easily bounce back to from today. Trip and ground suit and trainer in fair form.