Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Tingle Creek Gauvain 1pt EW - 7/1 Petit Robin 0.5pt EW - 12/1

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 12.10 Radium 0.5pt win - 16/1 Impressed me at Ascot and lto was too bad to be true. Interesting novice and at 16/1 I will take a chance on him to come back to form. Spirit River was better than him over hurdles, but fell lto and not sure he deserves to be that short in the market. The race is open and any of the runners can win. 12.40 Monetary Fund 1pt win - 5/1 My Shamwari 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Favourite is progressive and could be very well in here. The form of his last 2nd could be very good. The Hobbs selection is unexposed and seems value at the price. Yard continues in grand form and he's worth an EW bet at the price imo. 1.15 Regal Approach 0.5pt EW - 9/1 Ravethebrave 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Regal Approach is a very game horse, who found a lot lto and won really well. Raised a few lbs, but that will be offset by the claimer and has every chance of following-up. Yard continues in very good form. The Alan King runner won lto and is unexposed. There's probably more to come from him. 2.25 Neptune Collonges 0.75pt EW - 11/1 Exmoor Ranger 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Was gutted Neptune Collonges fell in the Hennessy. Today Ryan Mahon is claiming 5lbs and on his best form he's a stone well in. Could take all the beating today. Exmoor Ranger is a horse waiting to happen and he's been very unlucky in 2 consecutive festivals. Doesn't jump as well as he has to, but Denis O'Regan usually gets them into a rhythm and he could suit the horse around here. He's a well handicapped horse and I'll keep backing him, because I'm sure he'll pop-up and win a big handicap sooner rather than later.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 11.40 Oh Crick 0.75pt EW - 13/2 IMsingingtheblues 0.5pt EW - 12/1 Oh Crick has slipped to a mark he can win off and he is very good off strong pace in a big field. Ground and track suit and I was going to have my biggest bet of the year so far when I saw the 16/1 last night. Unfortunately he's only 13/2 now, but still worth a bet. IMsingingtheblues wasn't given a very good ride at Exeter when Tom Scu followed a strong pace then held him up then chased pace again. Horse traded odds-on and finished 4th. 2lb down the weights and 3lb claimed by Danny Cook put him on a very good mark and he has his ground. 12.45 Balthazar King 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Not the best horse in the race, but his perfect jumping compensates and again has an EW chance. Almost won lto when few of the market principals disappointed. 4 horse race here as far as I'm concerned and Tom O'Brien takes the ride. Only one has to run below form and he'll be in the places. 1.55 Gauvain 1pt EW - 7/1 (antepost) Petit Robin 0.5pt EW - 12/1 (antepost) Bit worried about Nick Williams' comments he couldn't get much work into his horses, because he doesn't have an AW gallop, but still Gauvain is the one I think is improving and will be a force in the graded 2m chases this season. Master Minded is yet to run two good races together. Somersby needs further. Kalahari King is turning out to be a disappointment. Twist Magic might be going to Huntingdon and is not good around Cheltenham anyway. Petit Robin was disappointing last season, but his best efforts are when fresh, so he's worth a small EW wager too. 3.05 Cue Card 2pt win - 2/1 I think this horse is a superstar and I think he'll be in the Champion Hurdle. Has classier horses to beat in this race, but should be a bit shorter here. Hopefully trainer has managed to get work into him during the cold snap and I think he'll stamp his champion credentials today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Supreme Novice Kid Cassidy 1pt win - 20/1 With Cue Card potentially going Champion Hurdle, I think this is the best horse so far in the novice ranks. Won as he liked lto and looks a speed horse to me, so I'd be surprised if he goes for the Neptune. Even if Cue Card goes Supreme, Kid Cassidy will be half the price on the day and 20/1 is value whichever way you look at it. Hopefully he's as good as I think he is.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 2.30 Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 10/1 Robinson Collonges 0.5pt win - 7/1 Ran too freely in the Paddy Power and needed it. Remains on a good mark and I still think he's graded class. Hopefully he'll run to form this time and if he's fit and ready, I think he'll reverse form with Little Josh and Mad Max. Even if he doesn't, he has every chance of making the frame and I'm surprised the price is as big as 10s this morning. Saver on the PN novice, who probably is a lot better than his current mark.

[mileni4uk]

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Plumpton 2.05 Bosamcliff 0.75pt EW - 13/2 Chased a very good horse over fences lto and reverts back to hurdles. Trip will suit and trainer's been going well on the AW during the cold snap. An open race, where the selection could be well handicapped.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 King George Riverside Theatre 1pt EW - 16/1 Riverside Theatre 1pt EW - 8/1 (w/o Kauto Star) The race was confirmed as his target today and I think this horse will be a force around Kempton in the next few years. Might not be good enough to beat Kauto, but every chance to be thereabouts and I think he'll be a lot shorter on the day.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Fairyhouse 1.55 J'y Vole 1.5pt EW - 6/1 The Ryanair 3rd gets 5lbs from his main rivals here and has every chance of winning. Would have been 2nd at Cheltenham if she was given a better ride. Trip and ground suit her very well and she's still improving. Cooldine might find it sharp. Glencove Marina is a 3 miler too and left Mullins' yard this year. Never been a fan of Tranquil Sea and I think he is a weak fav.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 3.10 Breedsbreeze 0.75pt win - 8/1 A very promising novice, who I was very impressed with. Had an injury, but has always gone well fresh in the past and with worry about few of the rivals today and him getting 10lbs, I think the 8/1 should be played.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Fairyhouse 12.50 Hurricane Fly 1pt EW - 7/2 Even if he gets beaten, he is the best horse in the field. Trip a slight worry, but Mullins keeps saying he'll stay. If he does, he should win. Newbury 12.25 Moleskin 0.5pt EW - 33/1 Looked one-paced to me and 3m over fences will suit. Yardsticks always improve for chasing and at the price I'm willing to find out if that will be the case again. Newbury 2.05 Nicto De Beauchene 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Didn't jump well lto, but yard is much better form now and most of these are exposed and if he comes to form, he is reliable and usually tends to be in the mixture. Bangor 2.25 Worth A Kings 0.5pt EW - 14/1 Two handicap runs after good novice career, but both didn't suit him. One was over 2m on good ground, the other was off top weight on soft. Upped to 3m back on better ground is what he needs and if he runs to his novice mark, he'll be thereabouts. Bangor 3.00 Miss Miracle 1pt win - 7/2 Goes straight to handicaps as a 3yo in a weak race and on his flat mark, he should win here. I think yard might be trying today and off feather weight, he's worth a bet imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Towcester 2.10 Ammunition 0.75pt EW - 7/1 In grand form with 2 wins this season. Raised 5lb for latest success, but Sam takes over from Paddy and claims 3. Form could be strong with 1 and 2 both well clear of the rest and he should be bang there in a race, where there is no progressive type. Exeter 1.50 Sports Line 1pt win - 11/4 Fancied him for the Arkle, but he didn't settle and tired quickly. Stiff 2m suit him and he could be value here. Not sure Royal Charm deserves to be odds-on on what he's achieved. Form of the 3rd behind Captain Cee Bee could be strong and Sports Line should have improved over the summer. Exeter 3.50 French Leave 0.75pt EW - 11/1 Has won two times here. Once over 2m1f on good to soft and once on heavy over 2m3f, so today's trip/ground shouldn't be a problem. Trainer is starting to hit form and I think he could be in the money having the assistance of a very good amateur.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Grand National Ballabriggs 2pt win - 33/1 I think this horse is graded class. Idled badly at Cheltenham when he hit the front and that wasn't at all bad in terms of his future rating. He has been raised only 10lb for the win and is probably value for a bit more. Off 150 he's well handicapped imo and trainer confirmed they'll go straight to the National. I won't be surprised if he wins before April and is the antepost fav just like Cloudy Lane few years ago. Matched 40 at Betfair, which is too big. I can easily see him 20/1 when the weights are announced and if he wins a graduation chase or another handicap he'll end up fav. Hope my judgment is right here. I really see him as a graded horse in the future.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Leopardstown 2.35 Glencove Marina 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Big price only because he's not with Mullins anymore. Joined a very talented trainer though and Barry Geraghty takes the ride. Ran really well over a minimum trip lto and stayed on in the end to beat Cooldine. He was always been a 3 miler in the making and former trainer saw him as a potential Gold Cup horse in the past. The talent at the yard meant Willie had to send few horses to other trainers to make room for his fresh set of potential top class stars, but this fella remains a good horse and the win few months ago proved it.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Joncol 0.5pt win - 6/1 Saver on Joncol, who is still young and improving and has always looked a potential Gold Cup horse. Should be favorite imo and if fully fit and ready will go close.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Leopardstown 1.25 Chicago Grey 1pt win - 4/1 Quadrillon 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Chicago Grey has been running wellin England and was competitive in some hot Cheltenham races. Today's heavy ground will suit him and he should be amongst things. Quadrillon jumped really well lto and despite not the classiest, he is a big price and warrants EW respect.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ffos Las 12.25 Glenfly 0.5pt EW - 80/1 By Presenting. Dam is from family of high-class staying chaser Foxchapel King. Hasn't shown much to date, but is well bred and will like the conditions today. With triple figures on Betfair, I thought a small EW bet is worth it. Hobbs having a great season and owner usually knows which horses to buy, so I'm giving this one a chance at the massive odds.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 3pt win - 5/1 @ Corals Can't believe Coral are keeping 5/1.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Gold Cup Mikael D'Haguenet 1pt EW - 25/1 @ Lads NRNB Considering Pandorama has the beating of all Irish horses on the Lexus form, I can't help but remember the way Mikael trashed him when they met last season. And with yard having other RSA types, it won't be a surprise to see this fella going the Gold Cup route. With NRNB he'll either start half the price on the day or go elsewhere.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Taunton 3.30 Darstardly Dick 0.5pt EW - 50/1 Quirky but talented individual, who can spring a surprise here. 4th in a competitive Cheltenham handicap last season. Been running well over fences and represents nice value back over hurdles for in-form trainer.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Happy new year, everybody! :ok Cheltenham 12.55 Oscar Whisky 0.25pt win - 5/2 Any Given Day 0.75pt win - 9/2 Any Given Day ran really well lto when he looked well beaten, but ran on strongly to chase Karabak. On 4lbs better terms he can reverse form. Celestial Halo gets 4lbs from them on his 3rd, but I think he's on the downgrade now. Any Given Day should have more to offer. Saving on the Henderson fav, who is unexposed.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 1.30 Richard's Sundance 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Won off just 2lbs lower and needed his last outing when yard wasn't in form. Harry Skelton rode him that day and handicapper has dropped him 4lbs for his latest start, which could prove crucial here. Back to form, he has a chance and the price is generous enough to be tried.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 3.10 Chartreux 0.75pt EW - 15/2 Yard in grand form and this one looks similar type to Grands Crus. Ran in the Albert Bartlett, but things didn't go his way. Races off 132 here with Ashkazar put in the race to be top weight, so this fella is off just 10-6. I think he is a very well handicapped horse and if ready (which he should be considering the connections), he should go close today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Oct: +6.58 Nov: +13.83 Dec: -17.38 Jan: +13.54 Feb: +11.94 Mar: +16.12 Apr: +24.15 May: +46.98 Jun: +22.31 Jul: +3.73 Aug: -2.52 Sept: +0.00 Oct: +9.25 Nov: -32.72 Dec: -13.30 Overall: +102.5 Staked: 637.86 Profit: +102.5 Yield: +16% If I can do 100pts this year, I'd be more than happy :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ayr 2.25 Worth A King's 1pt EW- 8/1 Had every chance lto at a big price, but she didn't stay and drop back in trip will suit. She's a bit lazy, but Jason rides her just like Any Given Day and if she's doesn't get outpaced, she will be bang there. 8/1 is value.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Plumpton 2.10 Cullahill 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Probably needs a bit better ground and the tongue tie, but 6th at Cheltenham lto wasn't that bad and yard is finally in form. Off low weight and with trip to suit, his price is more than generous and is worth an EW try.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ayr 1.55 Columbus Secret 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Won a maiden chase lto and the horse in 2nd is reliable handicapper. Both were clear of the rest and form looks ok. Mark of 112 is fair and yard usually has them well handicapped for their handicap debuts. The only worry would be the fitness, but that run was just 2 weeks ago, so he should be ready and at the price makes a good EW bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Plumpton 3.45 Sir John 1pt EW - 10/3 This looks a cracking EW bet. 4.9 and 1.75 at Betfair available. The horse was cantering when falling 2 out lto and McCoy is up now. Off just 85 he looks a typical Jonjo type, who is well handicapped going out of the novice division. The race seems pretty weak, but Longsdon's and Harris' horses are capable hence the EW bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 RSA Chase Wymott 1pt win - 16/1 Been very impressed by this fella and the race seems the obvious target. If he wins another novice chase I can easily see him 2nd fav to Time For Ruppert. Still not sure if Mikael D'Haguenet will go for this race, he was very flat the other day.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Hereford 3.00 Jump Up 0.5pt EW - 18/1 Handicap debutant for yard I really like. His two 2nds in novice company could be fair form and might just be given a lenient mark of 100 for today. The price and the jockey make this an easy bet. Just praying he's fit, with this weather it's a lottery.