Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Fontwell 3.30 Home 0.75pt EW - 9/1 An in and out performer on the AW, who won here over 2m6f. His record isn't very inspiring with 1 win and 9 unplaced over hurdles, but should fare better for Brendon Powell now. The yard is on form and in a weak race, I think my selection can go close today. Conditions suit and the 7lb conditional on board is a competent rider.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Stratford 2.50 No To Trident 0.75pt EW - 4/1 Was hoping on a better price. Traded around 6/1 on Betfair last night. Still, it's a weak seller and I think he has a great chance after a prep run recently. Up and coming trainer has been doing quite well and his sons are riding lots of winners for him. Worth an EW bet with very few in the race making any sort of appeal.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Stratford 2.50 No To Trident 0.75pt EW - 4/1 Was hoping on a better price. Traded around 6/1 on Betfair last night. Still, it's a weak seller and I think he has a great chance after a prep run recently. Up and coming trainer has been doing quite well and his sons are riding lots of winners for him. Worth an EW bet with very few in the race making any sort of appeal.

Enough with this, please! That's 3 odds on in-running beaten in the last 2 days. This one was 1.01 and 20L on the bridle :eyes

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 2.45 Amir Pasha 0.75pt win - 5/1 Hi Dancer 0.75pt win - 7/1 Amir Pasha won well last week and has every chance to follow-up with a penalty. There will be pace in this race, which will suit. Main danger Holiday Cocktail was withdrawn and the 7lb claim will be helpful. Penalty horses are usually bad value, but I think Amir Pasha is a worthy fav here and will take all the beating. Hi Dancer scored a C&D win in May and has been running well on Flat since. Up 8lb is fair and he can run a good race as well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 3.20 Lease Lend 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Progressive sort, who enjoyed 4 wins in 7 chase starts last season. Presumably past his best when tailed off on final start. Starts new season well treated and is only 3lb higher than for latest success. My only worry is his fitness, otherwise it would have been a very strong bet. I think he will be a lot better than his current mark. Hopefully he is tuned up for this. If close to full fitness, he'll could take all the beating here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Uttoxeter 3.10 My Les 0.5pt win - 4/1 Quam Celerrime 0.5pt win - 4/1 Matched around 6/1 on both last night and I think the race is between them. Probably the price on both is now right, but I'll still give it as a bet, because I think both have very strong chances here. My Les is a slight doubt being a mare with so much weight in the mud, but AP has chosen to ride her instead of JP's runner, so they must be fancying her. Desert Mirage will love the mud and the drop back to 2 miles.

[Spooner]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Wetherby 2.45 Amir Pasha 0.75pt win - 5/1 Hi Dancer 0.75pt win - 7/1 Amir Pasha won well last week and has every chance to follow-up with a penalty. There will be pace in this race, which will suit. Main danger Holiday Cocktail was withdrawn and the 7lb claim will be helpful. Penalty horses are usually bad value, but I think Amir Pasha is a worthy fav here and will take all the beating. Hi Dancer scored a C&D win in May and has been running well on Flat since. Up 8lb is fair and he can run a good race as well.

Another one turned over at odds on. :( Keep plugging on mate.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 4.30 Sierra Victor 0.5pt EW - 17/2 Interesting race with lots of last time out winners taking part. A case can be made for most of them, but I think my selection has been underrated a bit. The race he won lto isn't anything spectacular, but he won it quite well and should improve on that. I really like his novice 2nd few months ago. He was beaten by a neck and the horse in 1st has won since and is in the 120s now. At the price I think an EW bet is worth a try. I'm sure he'll be thereabouts.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Another one turned over at odds on. :( Keep plugging on mate.

Yea mate, terrible luck. Lots of 2nd's as well. These spells are part of the game though. You either stay the distance or you don't. It will turn soon :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Charlie Hall Chase Calgary Bay 0.5pt EW - 14/1 Finally a real grade2 field in this race. Last year only 5 took part and the form is somewhat doubtful to me. Deep Purple won it, but might struggle with the double penalty this time around. Ollie Magern is 13 now and I'd be extremely surprised if he is to win this. Don't remember the last time I've seen a grade2 race having market leaders with so many questions to answer. Barbers Shop has hit and miss profile and I'm still not convinced what his trip and conditions are. He might just be one of those, who is not good enough in grade races and will always be found out in handicaps off his mark. The Tother One is also very inconsistent. Nicholls usually aims them for a particular race and he will have him 100% ready, but at the price I'll let him run. Nacarat usually needs his first runs and is better going right handed. Knockara Beau I'm not sure is good enough. That's Rhythm is a handicapper and should find this too hot. The one I'm left with is not a particularly strong betting proposition either, but I just keep coming back to the run at Doncaster off top weight when he easily won against a pretty strong field. He gets the same left handed flat galloping track here and the ground is good. Needed the run last season and should be spot on for recent reappearance two weeks ago. 6th in the Gold Cup wasn't a bad effort. With strong pace ensured, I just think the race can be run to suit and Henrietta won with Minella Theatre the other day. Racing Demon ran a cracker over hurdles as well. I know I'm backing an enigma horse here, but I just have a feeling he will outrun his price tomorrow and the hold up tactics will be beneficial.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ascot 4.15 Pascha Bere 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Always goes well fresh and was 2nd here last season. Finally won in May and I think he could be going forward this year. 2m4f in June didn't suit him. The form of his 2m win is working out extremely well. Wheelavit in 4th has won 2 and went from 104 to 120. Alazan in 3rd has won 2 over hurdles and went from 117 to 129. Added a win and a 2nd on the flat as well. Cool Touch in 2nd has also won a race since. Pascha Bere might be 9lb higher than last year, but I think he is well capable of winning this race if showing the same attitude he showed in the summer.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ascot 3.40 From Dawn To Dusk 0.75pt win - 9/1 Massini's Maguire 1pt win - 15/2 Exmoor Ranger 0.25pt win - 16/1 Going with 3 here. Two unexposed young horses and one unexposed over the trip. From Dawn To Dusk really improved last year when he went chasing and when he went up in trip. In no case he can be called an old horse, because he has had only 25 career starts and I think there's a lot more to come from him. He's been a fragile horse and usually goes well fresh, because he has to be fit in order to run. Think the price is a good value. Massini's Maguire would have been a cracking bet in the Charlie Hall at 20/1, but connections chose to come here instead. I don't blame them, I think he is extremely well handicapped. If David Pipe has improved his jumping, he'll take all the beating imo. And also a saver on Exmoor Ranger. A horse I really like and who hasn't shown his best yet. His jumping improved a lot last year and he won at Newbury followed by a close 2nd at Sandown. Yard not yet firing and he might need the run, but I have to save on him. He is a danger if tuned up for this.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ascot 4.50 Safari Journey 0.75pt EW - 11/1 This horse was on the go for a long time last year. Ran 14 times in 2009 with his best effort coming at Cheltenham in December when 3rd behind French Opera. Then finished 6th and was backed heavily in the Grand Annual Chase on unsuitable soft ground. I was quite surprised he ran so well that day. Phillip Hobbs was saying he'll go really close if it stays dry. Conditions suit today and first time blinkers are applied. If Richard Johnson has a going day in the jumping department, I think the selection will go really close.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 5.10 Blazing Desert 0.5pt EW - 14/1 Ran well lto travelling and being outpaced over 2 miles. Considering his efforts on the flat recently I think he needs 2m4f at least over hurdles. The race lto produced 1st and 2nd who went on to win again afterwards and Three Ships also ran pretty well few days ago. With mark in the 70s on the flat, I think the selection is well capable of winning off 105 over timber and trip and ground are ideal.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Paddy Power Gold Cup Noland 0.75pt EW - 25/1 Out for two years, but is coming back now and trainer fancies him for a tilt at the race. Was going from strength to strength winning grade races before his injury. 3rd in the Arkle and with Poquelin off 164, Noland could be well treated off 157. With the way Henderson is going, Long Run is opposable at 7/2. Noland goes well fresh and considering PN has a stable tour in the RP tomorrow, we're potentially looking at 14/1 generally when everybody latches onto him.

[BillyHills]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Thought you might have had Like A Hurricane Milen?

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Ascot 4.50 Safari Journey 0.75pt EW - 11/1 This horse was on the go for a long time last year. Ran 14 times in 2009 with his best effort coming at Cheltenham in December when 3rd behind French Opera. Then finished 6th and was backed heavily in the Grand Annual Chase on unsuitable soft ground. I was quite surprised he ran so well that day. Phillip Hobbs was saying he'll go really close if it stays dry. Conditions suit today and first time blinkers are applied. If Richard Johnson has a going day in the jumping department, I think the selection will go really close.

:clap Nice winner mileni:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Thought you might have had Like A Hurricane Milen?

Dunno what happened mate. Completely missed him. Thought he is a bit skinny at 7/1 when I looked at the race, but completely ignored the name. Didn't have any alert and not very good with names. Film Festival also won, backed him lto.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

:clap Nice winner mileni:ok

Thanks Ted.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Carlisle 2.40 The Hollinwell 0.5pt win - 9/1 A horse I like and see going places this year. I'm sure he'll come on a lot for the run, but at the weights I think he's been a bit overpriced. Trainer is having his usual slow start to the season, but when November is near he is usually stepping up a gear. The selection won on seasonal reappearance last year and the 9/1 at Betfair is good value. Whatever happens, I'm sure I'll be on profit from him later in the season.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Carlisle 1.30 The Rustlin Rhino 1pt EW - 7/2 Related to 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch and so far has shaped as thorough stayer. Gets the stamina test today and recent run should have put him spot on. Trainer is amongst the winners. The race lacks depth and top conditional claims 5lbs. If he jumps well (something he has done so far), I'd be very surprised if he's out of the first three. Evens for the place on Betfair makes him a must EW bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Huntingdon 2.30 Colonel Alf 0.5pt EW - 33/1 You'll rarely see my tipping an unraced sort in a novice hurdle, but I have few doubts about the market principals here. Henderson's seem to need the run. The 2nd favourite won 2 on soft ground, but was pulled up on good lto and concedes a stone. Harvest Song, who I backed at 100+ was a freak winner and I don't think I can rely on Henrietta Knight these days. See You Jack was a decent 4th and should build on that today, but he is still an unknown quantity. My selection has some good pedigree. He is a half-brother to several winners, including Even Flo (stays 3m) and Spinaround (stays 2m4f). Bred for this game and at the price on offer, I think he has at least a place squeak.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Old Staking October: +26.31 (Yield: +19.78%) November: +55.33 (Yield: +14.30%) December: -69.50 (Yield: -30.75%) January: +54.15 (Yield: +38.00%) February: +47.77 (Yield: +53.37%) March: +64.5 (Yield: +16.84%) April: +96.6 (Yield: +145.26%) New Staking May: +46.98 (Yield: +103.25%) June: +22.31 (Yield: +50.13%) July: +3.73 (Yield: +10.43%) Aug: -2.52 (Yield: -7.15%)

[mileni4uk]

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Exeter 2.35 I'msingingtheblues 0.5pt EW - 9/1 Going really well when falling in the Old Roan. Pipe has just worked the oracle with Massini's Maguire from Hobbs and won the big handicap at Ascot with him. I won't be surprised if he has done the same with this fellow too. Always showed promise for Nicholls, but he never found the key to him. If non the worse for the fall 10 days ago, I think he can go really close off this mark.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Exeter 3.35 Clyffe Hanger 0.75pt EW - 11/1 Trainer is having a slow start to the season, but I think his horses are just needing the run. My selection ran 3 weeks ago at Chepstow and I think the form of it the race is strong. Balthazar King and Watamu Bay are good horses, while Aberdale ran a cracker on Sunday. Clyffe Hanger was rallying in 3rd when he hit a fence, but it was a promising run after one year off. He likes it soft and has very good course form. I think he makes a cracking EW bet at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Chepstow 3.20 Rhum 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Left all his previous form behind when relishing the testing conditions at Uttoxeter and winning a maiden hurdle. Bred to stay the 3 miles and conditions suit. Very much unexposed and I think he could be well treated over this trip. Yard amongst the winners and he is fit and ready, while few of the others might need the run.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Chepstow 2.45 Honourable Arthur 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Not knocked about on chasing debut and should strip fitter here. Shown almost nothing over hurdles, but he looks every bit a chaser and handicapper has given him a chance off 8lb lower than lto. Yard yet to fire, but their horses usually need their first run and with this fella already having an outing a month ago, I am willing to give him a chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 2.05 Categorical 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Won two consecutive handicap chases last season. Has a career high mark to defy, but is fit from the flat and trainer has been showing signs of form lately. May be a bit exposed against some of these, but it will only take couple of the market fancies to blow up on seasonal reappearance and my selection would sneak into contention. At the price he is well worth an EW bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 12.55 Willandrich 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Progressive last year winning 6 from 7. May not be stopping yet and still unexposed. Especially over 3 miles. Usual conditional is riding and trainer's been in good form lately. There are a few dangers in the race, but at the price the selection makes appeal imo.