Snooker: World Championships 2009

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Nice one kev, cheers:ok The 2009 world snooker championship at the crucible is nearly upon us, and i for one cant wait! Bar the British open golf, This is the only tournament that really gets me excited, along with hundreds of grannys up and down the country. Seriously though, at this early stage after a quick look the value may lie in the bottom half of the draw. The rocket is too short for me, especially with Selby and higgins in his half of the draw. In the bottom half i'm looking at marco fu a player i really admire. Vastly improved over the last 3/4 years, great all round game with no real weaknesses, great temperament and he wont't fear anyone. Still too have a proper study but i would imagine Fu e/w @33 in the weaker half of the draw, could be a starter. Bring it on:)

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Not to impressed with most of the prices in the outright tbh. Selby was a player i was looking to back, but out of the top players, he probably has the toughest opener against Ricky Walden. If he gets through that, there's a fair chance he could meet 3 past champions in dott, higgins and the current champion o'sullivan if he were to make it to the final. Along with higgins, selby is my favourite player and hopefully a future world champion. He certainly has all the attributes and i would love to see him win it this year, but with such a tough draw i think i'l leave the 9/1 on offer. Looking at ronnie i think there's a good chance he could cruise into the semi's, although a potential second rnd against the the fearless mark allen would be tough, and a match i would love to see. Its all hypothetical, but to me crucially, the rocket won't have to meet both higgins and selby to reach the final, and can only meet either of these two in the semi's. Its a fairly easy call to make, but with ronnie defending the title, and his head seamingly being in the right place(possibly cause his old boy's getting out soon:D) i think he'll be well up for this, and harder to beat than ever. I just wish he was 3/1 or better. Again in the top half i think the best value could lie with john higgins@ 12/1 which i actually think is a fair price. One of the top five of all time imo, the two time champion doesnt' have a weakness in his game and is always a danger at the crucible. If i do back higgins, he will be the only one from the top half. my only slight concern bar a tough draw, is whether or not higgins is the still the same player we have seen in the past. In the bottom half ive' already mentioned marco fu and am currently hoping to get matched @40.00 on betfair. Time to look at some other markets.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 It's nearly here. :) Not doing any outright bets as I really can't find any value in the prices, tempted by Higgins at 12/1 but he has a tough draw. Will probably just be betting on the matches as they come. Good luck all.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 I agree that the value is pretty thin at the top of the market, but if your prepared to take a chance on a few lively outsiders than I think a few prices are worth a small investment. I have placed the following antepost bets. 1 pt e/w Ali Carter win outright @12/1 - The bottom half of the draw is clearly the weaker and Carter is the form player from this section. As mentioned above the price isn't great, but with the exception of an on form Maguire, I would make him favourite for every potential match he could face on route to the final. 1 pt e/w Mark Williams win outright @33/1 - Again on right side of draw and has shown glimpes of something like his best on occassion this season. Appears in bullish mood judging by pre-tournament comments in the media, more than capable of making a mockery of the price if clicking into top gear. 1 pt e/w Jamie Cope win outright @ 64/1 - Undoubted talent who has not trained on as expected after a grand prix final appearance a couple of years back. I feel the price could offer some value if he can finally shake the 'next big thing' tag and deliver the goods. 1 pt e/w Ricky Walden win outright @ 66/1 - Similar credentials to Cope and has already landed his maiden ranking title. A come from behind win against O'Sullivan in that final underlining that Walden has got what it takes when the chips are down. Very tough opener aside, if he can get past Selby has the ability, confidence and belief to kick on to the latter stages at a handsome price. 1 pt Jamie Cope and 1pt Ricky Walden furthest progressing qualifier @ 8s and 12s respectively. A little insurance in case they fall short - scheduled for a potential head to head in the quarters, I can only realistically see Williams still being involved in this particular market at that stage. 1 pt Marco Fu to win 3rd quarter @ 11/2 - Question marks against the form of all players in this section and Murphy is a very weak favourite in my book having been poor all season bar a brief revival in the UKs. Fu is provisionally ranked in the top 8 and has been far more consistent than his over rated countryman Ding. Williams the danger but I have him Outright if he turns Fu over in their potential quarter final clash.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 :welcome to PL Jimmy. Great 1st post mate, good luck with your bets :ok.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 :D Cheers Kev. Been reading the forums for a few weeks now and thought it was time I added my pearls of wisdom to hopefully aid our perennial battle against the camel coats. :cheers Punting high - Digging out Loyal Honcho at 50/1 for last years Greyhound Derby for a four figure win. :cry Punting low - Claudio Ranieri walking away from Man City at the 11th hour to take over at Juventus to cost me a four figure loss. :notworthy Tiger Woods, Roger Federer and Phil Taylor have provided ample beer money down the years and an honourable mention to Kauto Star for landed me in the clover at Cheltenham this year. I like to have a bet with all Sports if I think I've uncovered a bit of value, my main three are Football, Snooker and Boxing.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 :welcome JH. good first post: ok

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 My outrights focus around 2 men. I've got 2 match bets for Saturday too. Outrights 1st. 1pt ew P.Ebdon to win World Championship 40/1 Ladbrokes 1pt P.Ebdon to win 1st Quarter 10/1 Sportingbet Peter Ebdon comes into this event off the back of a tournament win in China last month and the way he played out there should've given him a lot of confidence coming to Sheffield. Certainly the noises he's been making to O'Sullivan suggests he's confident. We know Ebdon focuses so much on this event so there's no way he won't be ready for the tournament and he's got a smooth passage into the quarter finals I think. Nigel Bond can be tricky but I'd expect Ebdon to win that and the winner of Day/Lee shouldn't scare too much. Then it could be the rocket in the quarter finals but we all know what happened when they last met in a quarter final. Ebdon showed signs his game was back in the China Open and if it is 40/1 is a big price for a former winner. 1pt ew S.Hendry to win World Championship 66/1 Ladbrokes 1pt S.Hendry to win 3rd Quarter 12/1 Blue Square Stephen Hendry has to be overpriced here irrelevant of recent form. He had no form coming here last year yet still made the semi finals. Then he walked into an inspired O'Sullivan else he could have won again. This time though O'Sullivan won't be waiting until the final and should Hendry get there we'll have long since collected the 33/1 place money and the 12/1 quarter money. Hendry won a few games in China to boost his confidence a bit and we know he has no problem getting up for this tournament. He plays good mate Mark Williams in round 1 and that will bring the best out of him and with Ding or Liang waiting in round 2 and Shaun Murphy a potential quarter finalist the draw could have worked out a lot worse so at 66/1 I'll have a dabble on the 7 time champ. 3pts R.McLeod to beat M.King 17/10 Sportingbet Rory McLeod did me a turn in the qualifiers for this when he overcame Ian McCulloch with my cash on him and he's got more of my cash on his shoulders in this match. He'd have loved the draw when it came out I think. McLeod has played here before so any nerves shouldn't be totally restrictive and he's shown all season that he's improving in front of the cameras. His eyecatching performance in defeat to O'Sullivan at the UK Championship seems to have given him confidence. Mark King is solid and gritty but in terms of the rest of the top 16 isn't anything special. He could make it close but over such a long match I don't think King can score well enough to win. McLeod scores for fun when he gets on the table and he's my pick here. 4pts G.Dott vs B.Hawkins - Over 16.5 Frames 4/5 Stan James Graeme Dott was another one who showed some good form in China and the one thing we know about him is he'll battle all day. So will Barry Hawkins so I don't expect this one to be over quickly. It's got a 10-9 all over it for me but anything closer than 10-7 either way, including 10-7 sees us with a winner. Both are pretty evenly matched. Both play good safety and when they are in the balls both score well. Neither have set the world alight this season so I expect a close battle and one which will yield at least 17 frames.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Leaving the top half of the draw alone. Its looks mighty hard to me and instead focusing on the bottom half. Fu 33/1 sj 2 pts e.w and to win quarter 3 11/2 bet3 5 pts Nearly went for Williams here but gone for Fu. Fu is a player who is often under rated imo. In the last couple of years he has been extremely solid and whilst he can have the odd early exit in events, when he gets into the event he can be very dangerous and often reach the later stages. He has had the odd run at Sheffield before and he showed his liking for the longer framed matches when getting to the UK final this season. Also I think his draw isn’t that bad. The higher seeded players in this quarter (Murphy, Ding) have been erratic at times this season and whilst Swail will be a tough first round opponent and capable of beating Fu, if Fu did come through that then I think he could go some way in this event. Maguire 8/1 sky 5 pts e.w On this seasons form, Maguire is possibly short here but given his draw, Im going for the talented Scot here. Maguire faces Burnett/King/Mcleod before the q/f and no one else in the draw has an easier looking path to at least a q/f imo. Whilst Maguire I don’t think has been that great this season, to be fair he hasn’t been awful at all, he has reached three semis and three q/f and considering at times he has given the impression he hasn’t always played that well, thats not a bad record. Also given his draw here, a bizarre as it sounds, he could almost play himself into better form as the event goes on. Maguire came close her two years ago when he lost a semi to eventual champ Higgins from a winning position but I really like his chances of being in the q/f at least here and from then on he could go close in that bottom half. Four for the first day: Mcleod 17/10 spo 10 pts Mcleod has always had a bit of a reputation and whilst he has not always delivered in terms of results, this could be a good time to justify his reputation. He comes into this match of a slightly mixed season with some early exits but he has played better in the longer framed events ie. UK, Worlds qualifying and that may have some significance. He beat a solid enough player to get here in Mcculloch and this is a fair draw. King is a gritty player but he is very unlikely to thrash you like others in the top 16 can do and tbh I don’t think he has been that great this season. He has advanced past the first round in some events but when he has played in the last 16 of events he has often been thrashed and had his limitation exposed somewhat. He has a lot more pressure on him too in a battle to be in the top 16 again and the debutant could take him. Dott v Hawkins over 16.5 frames 4/5 sj 10 pts Both of these players are very similar really. Both are gritty and determined players who are what is known in the trade as good ‘match players.’ They both will know the significance to this game too as Dott needs a win to be in the 32 next season and Hawkins to try and be in the top 16. So there will be a lot at stake and this just looks a tight game. Dott has had his fair share of final frame shoot outs here in the past and Hawkins will not want to be remember the last two visits here where he has lost 10-9. I actually have a feeling this could be a 10-9 either way as well but going for at the worst it to be 10-7 either way. Greene +3.5 frames evens wh 10 pts I just have a slightly wierd feeling this could be the shock first round upset. There is always one and something just says Greene could surprise here. On form its Carter all the way here and given the ruthless streak he has shown in first round matches lately, he could do it easily. However things are never that simple and Greene whilst doing little really this year has just done enough to be in the top 32, he can occasionally surprise when not really expected too. I also felt in the last event he was starting to come into some form before a very narrow defeat. He beat the out of form Doherty to be here and he could shock Carter the same way King did to Selby last year here in almost uncanny similarities between the two. Im going the safer option for him to just get to 7 frames. Williams -1.5 frames 10/11 bluesq 10 pts Could just go for Williams here but going for him on the handicap for him to win at the worse, 10-8. Williams has had a better last couple of seasons and hence looks top 16 bound now. He slowly has recovered some form and whilst he is not the player of old and the odd alarming result still shows that, he has also played some good stuff this year. He likes the longer framed matches as he showed at the UK when he dumped out Selby and lost in a high quality game to Carter in the q/f. Im not sure what to think of Hendry now. He isn’t the force of old and whilst he showed a bit more form in the last event and will be sure to be up for this, I fancy Williams to be that bit too strong.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Morning gentlemen and here we go. 17 days of tension, late night battles and hopefully some fantastic snooker. I'm liking the look of the overs bet in the Dott/Hawkins match chaps. Which ever way you disect this one its difficult to see either player running away with it. I'd be at least 4/6 if I was a layer so more than happy to avail myself of the 4/5. The other matches appear to be priced correctly to me so I'll hold fire and see how the action unfolds. :ok Good luck to all who are having a bet.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Hendry v Williams - Hendry @ 7/5 Boylesports Difficult match to call and the value lies with Hendry here imo, he has been having a poor time of it this season but I fancy him to bounce back in good style at the world championships just like he did last year, he faces a tough first round match in Williams who has been playing some good snooker of late, we all know the ability that Hendry has and he has proven for years just how good he is, I'll take him to bounce back into form and see off Williams.

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Just one outright Marco fu ew @33/1 ladbrokes Just to confirm my only outright is marco fu and as he doesn't start until monday i hope i'm ok in posting this after the tourney has started. Thought it would be better to take the 16.5/1 guaranteed were he to make the final at ladbrokes than laying off on betfair, as he would most likely be a 2/1 underdog at best. Going to have a look at the matches starting this afternoon to see if there's anything i fancy. gl lads

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Hendry v williams over 1.5 centuries @5/6 pp The two close friends meet here in the 1st round, and i would imagine it will be a close match. Over a best of 19 match you would always fancy hendry to notch a century or two and with well over 700 to his name i fancy him to add to that in this match. Williams has over 200 centuries to his name but that would probably be closer to 400 if he concentrated more after a frame was in the bag. Two great break builders, i think 2 centuries in this match is well within our reach.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 2 more match bets for Sunday. 3pts M.Gould to beat M.Allen 5/2 Stan James Martin Gould landed a right touch for me when he beat Matthew Stevens at a similar price to this in the qualifiers and I see no reason why he can't come here and beat the talented but inconsistent Allen. Both are fairly inperienced in terms of winning matches here so it could get tight and tense at the end. It's Gould's debut at the Crucible while Allen has only won one match with this being his 3rd visit here. Allen is a good breakbuilder but Gould has wins over the likes of Stephen Hendry this season and appears to be going from strength to strength. He's a good matchplayer and if the dodgy Allen turns up then the qualifier is capable of winning this. 3pts M.Selby vs R.Walden - Over 16.5 Frames Evs Stan James When the draw came out this one looked by far and away the best of the matches. This could be a real cracker and unless either does a no show I can't see it being anything other than a tight tussle. They both play good safety and are both heavy scorers - they've both made double figures in terms of centuries this season. When these two met at The Masters it finished 6-5 to Selby and even their Shanghai Masters semi final was close, ending up 6-4 to Walden. There isn't a great deal between these two when both are on song and I don't see this ending up worse than 10-7. 10-7 either way is enough for us so I'll take the overs.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Some clearance that was from Hendry after the flukes Williams has had before it. 7-6 now after a big steal there. Going to be a fantastic end to this one

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009

Some clearance that was from Hendry after the flukes Williams has had before it. 7-6 now after a big steal there. Going to be a fantastic end to this one

:clap:clap Stephen Hendry. Not the player he was, but a living legend. Held his nerve well there to finish up.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Indeed so. The slip I've got with 66/1 on it for Hendry will look big now with a nice looking draw the semis from here.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 2 pts Jamie Cope to Beat Joe Perry @ 11/10 Sportingbet/Chandler Cope the more naturally talented of the pair, granted Perry has experience and is a solid match player but this is a 5/6 the pair job for me so Cope value at odds against. 3pts Jamie Cope highest break @ 11/10 Sportingbet/Paddys Cope's game based around his break building, Perry no mug amongst the balls but doesn't deserve to be favourite in this market so again the odds against is a good price. 2pts Marco Fu to beat Joe Swail -1.5 frames @ 8/11 Bet 365/Paddys Fu is in the form of his career and has climbed the rankings steadily in the past few years. Swail on the otherside of the hill, granted he made the final in Wales but on balance Fu is fully expected to triumph. The 8/15 best price Fu is about right, 8/11 for any victory barring a final frame decider looks a better call. 1pt Liang Wenbo to beat Ding Junhui @2/1 Sportingbet/Stanjames/ Ladbrokes Ding burst onto the scene in a blaze of glory and looked a good thing to claim the No.1 spot. However, he has simply failed to live up to his early promise and hasn't tasted victory for the best part of two years after a slew of early titles. The hammering at the hands of O'Sullivan in that masters final appears to have done permament damage. Liang was a breath of fresh air in last years tourny reaching the quarters whilst playing some great attacking snooker. If he can approach this match with the same fresh faced enthusiam 2/1 is a good price. One negative is the fact he is facing up to a revered fellow countryman who may overawe him slightly so stake will be kept to a minimum.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 So Williams bites the dust :sad - both players played poorly, probably the worst ever match between the two in terms of quality. Hendry will need to improve dramatically to maintain any ambitions of reaching the latter stages. The first round is always the hardest to win so you never know.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009

Hendry will need to improve dramatically to maintain any ambitions of reaching the latter stages.

Not sure I'm with you there Jimbo, sure it wasn't vintage Hendry but he still knocked in 8 half century breaks so it wasn't all bad :ok.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009

Not sure I'm with you there Jimbo' date=' sure it wasn't vintage Hendry but he still knocked in 8 half century breaks so it wasn't all bad :ok.[/quote'] and a massive improvement on what we have seen for some time. I personally was impressed by Hendry. Not ott impressed, but impressed enough to feel he can win this particular quarter.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 And against probably the hardest opponent he could've had, who was experiencing more luck than I've ever seen :eek.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Not a million miles of opposing Ding today knowing his form has been average for a while and that he has loads of pressure on him with his top 16 place not even secure. Anyway skipping it and going for just one: Cope 11/10 vc 10 pts Tough first round game this which isnt the easiest to call between the younger player and Perry. However just going for the youngster here who might just have that added firepower. Perry got to the semis here last year and started this season in good form, however lately I think his form has just dropped off a bit. Similar comments could well apply to Cope who had a good start to the season but perhaps hasnt done as much lately. However he had a reasonably easy qualifying win and could just be a player about to thrive again on the bigger stage and he is the selection.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Ok, I'm prepared to accept I may have judged it a bit harsely. I really expected Williams to play better than he did, suppose I was venting a bit of frustration that the bet had gone down the pan without Hendry playing particularly well to beat him. Todays another day so onwards and upwards hopefully

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Perry v cope over 16.5 frames @8/11 pp A touch match to call and one that could easily go all the way. Was going to take a perry win, but at around the same odds, i feel the overs could be the safer bet. Pesonally i feel perry is more consistent, has a better all round game at this moment in time, and with the greater experience and a great run to the semi's last year i think the provisional no9 could just edge this one. Having said all that young cope is undoutably a great talent, and a very dangerous customer (especially when in the balls) and can reel of 2-3 frames in the blink of an eye. I wouldnt be surprised to see a close and slighty nervy opening to this match, and i doubt any of these two will be running away with this. here's hoping it's a close 1

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Taking a late one for the game which finishes tonight. 3pts J.Swail vs M.Fu - Over 17.5 Frames 11/10 Bet365 Marco Fu comes into this evening's session leading Joe Swail 5-4 after a very good 1st session. Fu threw 2 centuries and a couple of other decent breaks at Swail but the Outlaw hasn't gone away. In fact, we know from experience that he won't go away. He's shown that here down the years and he showed at the Welsh Open, where he made the final, that his game is in good order. Marco Fu has a great all round game and will keep things tight, as will Swail and I can see this one going all the way. I actually think Swail will pull it out and win this tonight but by taking this bet I can edge my bets knowing 10-8 or 10-9 Fu wins for me. Over 17.5 frames for me tonight.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 :clap Nice one Marco, landed the handicap handsomely in the end, although he was helped by Swail throwing a few frames away from emminently winnable positions. I will be playing the following for tomorrows trio of first rounders 2 pts Nigel Bond to Beat Peter Ebdon +3.5 @ 4/6 Skybet Bond is obviously not the force of old, but he can still mix it at this level and this one could be a real nip and tuck scrap. Ebdon clearly deserved jolly but Bond is well capable of getting the 7 frames on the board required for this one to cop. 2 pts Shaun Murphy to beat Andrew Higginson -2.5 @ 5/6 Ladbrokes Murphy should have too much for Higginson when alls said and done and Ladbrokes are dangling a decent carrott with the 5/6, generally 8/11 elsewhere. 0.5 pts Neil Robertson to beat Steve Davis 10-6 @ 13/2 general 0.5 pts 10-5 @ 13/2 0.5 pts 10-4 @ 8/1 Robertson not had a great season but still got a tourny on the board in Bahrain. Davis more in it for the enjoyment of the game these days rather than with any serious ambitions of winning. Robertson is predictably short on both the outrights and handicap betting. I'll take a chance on a correct score to small stakes. Robertson should get it done fairly comfortably, whilst Davis is still competent enough to avoid a proper hammering.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 Got that Swail match completely wrong although it should've been a bit closer than it was. I'll go with one tomorrow. 3pts J.Cope to beat J.Perry 15/8 Betfred Jamie Cope had all the momentum when the 1st session ended. He trailed Joe Perry 4-1 but won 3 of the last 4 frames to end the session just 5-4 behind. He finally got his cue arm going at the end of the session and knocked in a couple of decent breaks. I like Joe Perry as a player a lot. You know what you are going to get from him. He'll be tight and when he gets his chances more often than not he'll capitalise to the maximum. However one weakness he has shown this season is closing out matches and if this gets tight that could be the key. Cope was only 11/10 before a shot was played in this match and yet being only 1 behind he's suddenly 15/8. It's a big price and if Cope's potting gets going early doors tomorrow afternoon he can come from behind and take this one.

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 L wenbo to beat D junhai @ 5/2 general Must admit i fancied ding to come through this match before the start, but even at 5-4 up after the first session i'm not so sure. Ding is not only out of form, but is under serious pressure to retain his top 16 place for next season and from what i saw today he certainy looks fragile. Saw young wenbo play some crackin safety today, and with a better shot choice than last year( ie not going for every possible pot) i feel the young man has a great chance here. He has a beautiful touch and is more than capable of winning frames in one visit. Again this is probably going to to be tight, but with all the pressure on an out of form ding, im happy to take him on here at nice looking odds. S murphy to bt a higginson -2.5 frames @ 5/6 ladbrokes I'm all over this h/cap. With all due respect to higginson, he isn't in the same class as murphy and i very much doubt he can take 8 frames of murphy in this match for it to lose. Higginson did have a nice 10-4 win against judge to get here, but in general has had a very poor season and is heading down the rankings. Bar a lean spell a few years back, higginson hasn't really acheived much in his time as a pro and i would fancy murphy to take this quite comfortably. Barring his win at the uk murphy has had an very poor season, but i think he will see this as a perfect first round draw, and one that he can hopefully gain confidence from with a good win. The difference in class could show here, and i fully expect the ex champ to take this 10-7 at worst. Also looking at over 17 frames in the ding match @6/5 lad as a saver

[theboybroon]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2009 D junhai V L wenbo over 17 frames @ 6/5 ladbrokes As i already mentioned i think wenbo can win this, but even if he doesn't i'm confident this is going to be nip and tuck, and that wenbo can at least get 8 frames on the board to cover my stake. Any win for liang would be great, but 10-8 or 10-9 would be perfect:hope