alexmac Posted April 15, 2009 Share Posted April 15, 2009 I have nearly completed my list of horses to follow this flat season, and have therefore decided to open up my thread for the flat season. The flat season really gets underway today, with the Craven meet at Newmarket, and although I am in Japan, I am keeping tabs on it! My jumps horses to follow made a small loss, that would have been a profit had I been backing the selections priced 5/1 or higher each way. The good thing about running these threads is that you learn from mistakes/errors and build on them. I will also be running an ante-post part of the thread. This will not be deducted from the main bank, but selections and analysis will be posted as anything catches my eye. Therefore, the the flat season I will be backing each way at prices of 5/1 or higher. I will be placing my bets using Paddy Power as they are guaranteeing best price on every race, a great concession in my opinion. Starting bank is 200pts. Selections of 9/2 or less will be backed 2pts win. Selections of 5/1 or more will be backed 1pt each way. :ok:ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 15, 2009 Author Share Posted April 15, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Bet 1 - 3.35 - Newmarket - ART CONNOISEUR At last! Some top drawer flat racing on turf. This is when the season REALLY starts for me. I have been a fan of Art Connoiseur since he won his first couple of starts at Leicester and Newmarket, before winning with a stunning change of gears at Royal Ascot, where he absolutely hacked up. I backed him for the 2000 Guineas straight after that at 25/1. Although that price is still available, I doubt it will be if Art Connoiseur can prove he is back to full fitness after breaking a cannon. His last 2 starts where below par, but he has shown he has talent, and is finishing 2nd to Mastercraftsman really that bad a result after 3 good wins earlier in the season? This horse is on my list of horses to follow and I make him an exceptional E/W chance at the very least here, if he really is back to full fitness. 1pt E/W @ 11/2 (Paddy Power) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 15, 2009 Author Share Posted April 15, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Ante-post - BET 1 - ART CONNOISEUR - 200 GUINNEAS - 25/1 As mentionned in the above post, I like the chance he has on winning the first big classic of the season in a few weeks time. If he displays a good turn of foot and wins well today then this price will be long gone. A fantastic each way price IMO. 1pt e/w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 15, 2009 Author Share Posted April 15, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Bet 2 - 3.00 - Newmarket - LIBERATION Now running for the Godolphin operation after a highly pleasing 2 year old campaign that saw him run very well in THE hottest 2 year old race of the year - the Tattersalls Million. I first became aware of Liberation in September whilst at Ascot. He looked a picture in the parade ring, and absolutely bolted up to beat a number of decent types. His best form however, must come from the sales race at Newmarket, where he ran very well only to be beaten by Nasri, Donatavium and Crowded House. Those 3 have proved themselves to be very high class indeed. His seasonal debut in Dubai was also pleasing, just being beaten into 2nd place by City Style. The coin seemed to drop pretty late on that day, and he should have come on further for that run. Must have a strong chance here today, the only concern being that in recent season the Godolphin horses have not fired for a while when running back in Europe. That being said, I make Liberation a decent bet at about the 3/1 mark. Paddy Power have not yet priced the race up, so I will have to take the SP - a bit of a shame, but there is nothing I can do when an 8 hour time difference is involved !!!!! 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted April 15, 2009 Share Posted April 15, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season good luck with it Alex. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 16, 2009 Author Share Posted April 16, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season OK, not a great start then. Liberation appears to have ran a shocker, with Dettori reporting he was racing too freely after the race. Will keep him on the list, as he has got class. But a significant improvment will be needed next time out. Art Connoiseur does not seem to have progressed much from his 2 year old season. Shame really, as he looked very promising last season, he is certainly not a 2000 Guineas type now... Will have to wait and see where he appears next. I cannot get over the fact that he went off at 10/1, aftert being a tissue price 9/2 and early price of 11/2 surely something must have been amiss...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 16, 2009 Author Share Posted April 16, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Bet 3 - 5.20 - Newmarket - IMPOSING One of a number of Sir Michael Stoute horses on my list this season, Imposing has to be taken seriously here as the yard often target the race with promising 3 year old types. Having just won once last season, Imposing did not set the world alight, but ran well, without being disgraced in the big sales race won by Donatavium. If he has winetered as well as he can expected to have, then surely he is exactly the sort of type to take this race. Still holds entries for fancy races later in the season, so must be held in high regard at home. An interesting runner, who has got to be in with a decent shout at odds of around 9/4. 2pts win 9/4 - Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 17, 2009 Author Share Posted April 17, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Imposing goes down by a short head. A bit gutted as the 9/4 was long gone as he started the 15/8 favourite. Will keep on eye on him, as he looks like one to have on your side, if the handicapper does not clobber him. Every cloud has a silver lining however... Paddy Power refunded my losing bet as they had a promo on. If your horse was beaten by a horse from an odd numbered stall bets would be voided. Nice one Paddy Power. This has got me thinking - what do i do with the p\l of the thread when things like this happen? I have concluded that, as I am going to be using Paddy Power for the whole thread then I will not be counting this as a loser, and will instead count it as being a void bet. So: Win Bets - 2 Wins - 0 Voided - 1 Total - 198pts Each Way bets - 1 Wins - 0 Placed - 0 Total 198pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 17, 2009 Author Share Posted April 17, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Ajaan (GB) Never 0 Alanbrooke (GB) Never 0 Art Connoisseur (IRE) Never 0 Bab Al Salam (USA) Never 0 Cara's Request (AUS) Never 0 Cavera (USA) Cityscape Never 0 Conduit (IRE) Never 0 Crowded House (GB) Never 0 Cygnet (GB) Never 0 Dream Eater (IRE) Never 0 Duncan (GB) Never 0 Electrolyser (IRE) Never 0 Harlestone Gold (GB) Imposing Never 0 Jack Dawkins (USA) Never 0 Jukebox Jury (IRE) Never 0 Kite Wood (IRE) Never 0 Liberation (IRE) Never 0 Lonely Star (IRE) Never 0 Look Here (GB) Never 0 Marvellous Value (IRE) Never 0 Mastery (GB) Never 0 Mooakada (IRE) Never 0 Native Ruler (GB) Never 0 Paco Boy (IRE) Never 0 Palavicini (USA) Pavershooz (GB) Never 0 Presvis (GB) Never 0 Rainbow View (USA) Never 0 Run For The Hills (GB) Never 0 Sea The Stars (IRE) Never 0 Tartan Bearer (IRE) Never 0 Tenjack King (GB) Never 0 The Which Doctor (GB) Never 0 Times Up (GB) Never 0 Times Vital (IRE) Never 0 Westphalia (IRE) Never 0 Wise Melody (GB) Never 0 Zacinto (GB) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 17, 2009 Author Share Posted April 17, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season That is my original list. Taken from a number of sources. I will, of course, be adding and removing horses from the list as the season goes on. As you can see, there are a wide range of horses on the list, ranging from Classic hopefuls to everyday handicappers. I do not tend to focus on one type of horse, or race but try to keep my eyes open and see as many races and horses as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 4.15 Epsom - DUNCAN Held in high regards before his winter move from John Dunlop to John Gosden. He won a maiden last year, but then went slightly off the boil. He is bred to stay further than 10f, which he was campaigned over last year. Towards the back end of the season he was starting to take a fierce hold in some of his races. If the break over winter has helped him settle down, and if Gosden has managed to work on him settling in races then he could be one to watch. The ability is clearly there, and Gosden does not generally deal with poor quality animals, so he must be valued. Eventually he will be aimed at the staying races I would imagine, but on his seasonal reapperance tomorrow he may well run into a place at odds of around 12/1. Most definately one to keep an eye on in my opinion. 1pt e/w @ 10/1 BOG Paddy Power nb. there is a money back special on this race with Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Have added Cityscape onto my list. Saw him at Newbury, where prior to the race the trainer claimed he was 10-12 kgs over his ideal racing weight and there was a lot of work left to do. Well, he ran a cracker after that, and must have plenty more to come. Has become the subject of a small gamble on the Guineas, and I may well also have an e/w bet on him in that. I am going to have a better look at the Guineas tomorrow evening, so will probably post up a bet then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 22, 2009 Author Share Posted April 22, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Duncan wins well at 8/1. Took the 10's on offer early doors though. :) Win Bets - 2 Wins - 0 Voided - 1 Total - 198pts Each Way bets - 2 Wins - 1 Placed - 0 Total 211pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season great win alex mate, won really well well done:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 23, 2009 Author Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Had just the one bet today, not included in my thread. The Fonz ran well at Beverley to get his head infront of some decent handicappers. It was his third run, and first win - meaning he will now be rated. I expect a rating of around 82 for him, meaning he will still be able to contest some very winnable races. He does not, despite connections, seem to be a superstar, but he will improve after this, and will relish a step up in trip. I am going to keep an eye on him, and back him next time if conditions suit etc.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 4 of my selected horses go today at Sandown, cracking card there by the way. 2 of mine oppose each other in the 3.45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 3.45 - Sandown - PACO BOY and DREAM EATER A nice looking race this, with some very decent types lining up to contest the bet365 mile. A fully fit Paco Boy would take this with ease, but there are some doubts over his fitness. His last run, an uninspiring 8th, at Nad al Sheba was not as promising as had been hoped, and he will need to have come on for that to take this one today. He has got tremendous formin the bag though, beating Natagora in France, and winning 7 of his 11 starts. If he has been primed for this race, then he will take all the beating, however I do have slight doubts. As it happens, another of my horses lines up in the shape of Dream Eater. I must say, I am glad to have two in the race. Dream Eater. I am starting to take more notice of rthe horses that Balding sends out, and this one is no exception. Although having only one once in 11 career starts, he has been in the frame on 7 occasions, so he is a genuine type. If it all falls right for him and he gets a decent run then he can take this however. Only seen twice last year, in high class races (the 2000 Guineas and The Jersey Stakes), he made his reappearance last week at Warwick. Although he was only 2nd of 5 there, behind Plum Pudding, he looked all over the winner until swerving badly within the final furlong and hampering the 3rd. If he has come on since then, he will have a chance today, but he will have to run a career best. Paco Boy - 2pts win @ 11/8 Dream Eater - 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Paddy Power) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 4.15 - Sandown - TARTAN BEARER Another very decent looking race. However, this one looks like a toss up between Tartan Bearer and Pipedreamer. Although Sir Michael Stoute lost this race 3 years running with favourites in 05,06 and 07, he came back to form with a win with Ask last year. Today he sends the Derby runner up Tartan Bearer to Sandown, and he has a very decent chance of winning. A cracking season last year saw him finish in the places on all his starts, including the runners up spot in the Derby, and an unlucky looking 3rd in the Irish Derby. He will be stepped back to 1m2f today, but he seems to have the pace to be able to deal with that, and if all things go his way he should win. We know he will have been well prepared, and the only real problem here could be the lack of a front runner to set the pace. However, I really do like the chances of him winning this one. Tartan Bearer - 2pts win @ 11/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 4.50 Sandown - Jack Dawkins Jack Dawkins has not yet set the world on fire, however, he has wons 2 of his 8 races, and been placed in a further 2. However, people have been making all the right noises about him, and his trainer is an expert at getting the very best from his horses. Somewhat of a dark horse, he comes into this having dissapointed on his last 2 starts of last season. Those runs came somewhat as a surprise, as a 2nd behind Mangham on his 3rd to last start seemed to indicate that he was in good form. If he is back to his best, and has wintered well, then he could run a good race, at a decent price. Jack Dawkins - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season A decent day. Paco Boy returns at 15/8 (Best Odds Guaranteed), Dream Eater places at 7/1 and Tartan Bearer wins nicely at 11/8. Jack Dawkins ran a shocker, and I am going to have to look at his next run very carefully before backing. Win Bets - 4 Wins - 2 Voided - 1 Total - 205pts Each Way bets - 4 Wins - 1 Placed - 1 Nowhere - 2 Total - 210pts Both the win, and each way selections no showing a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 28, 2009 Author Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 2.55 Pontefract - NATIVE RULER Really sweet on Native Ruler, after reading glowing praise from Henry Cecil. He is sure to be popular tomorrow, and will be many peoples banker of the day, he may well go off a shade of odds on, but in this situation, I do not think that should put you off. Although only once seen on the racecourse, he managed to make a good impression that day, whilst finishing 2nd behind Sopranist. Although he was an even money favourite, and was beaten, he clearly did not really appreciate the ground, and the track did not suit. Tomorrow, at Pontefract it is hoped that conditions will be more in his favour, and he is sure to have learned a great deal after his promising racecourse debut. He is very well bred, being a half brother to Sixties Icon, and holds both Dante and Derby entries, so is obviously highly regarded at home. If the penny drops a little bit sooner on this occasion, then surely he will be very difficult to beat indeed. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2009 Author Share Posted April 29, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Native Ruler wins nicely. Clocked a cracking time aswell, beating the 80 rated Faldal's time by 1.45 of the later fillies handicap. Looks a decent prospect, and stays on the list for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2009 Author Share Posted April 29, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Win Bets - 5 Wins - 3 Voided - 1 Total - 206pts Each Way bets - 4 Wins - 1 Placed - 1 Nowhere - 2 Total - 210pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 4, 2009 Author Share Posted May 4, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Missed one or two bets this weekend as was away at Newmarket without internet access... Getting back into it this week with one or two runners. 3 horses I liked the look of: High Spice Desert Creek Tawaabb Going to have a look at where they turn up next. Particularly Tawaabb who I saw today at Newmarket. Well bred and smart connections, was very worked up in the parade ring (on racecourse debut), and ran a cracker. Would have won had he not drifted off the rail in the final 100 yards or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 5, 2009 Author Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season 2.45 - Chester - AJAAN Henry Cecil is very sweet on this horse - electing him as THE horse to follow from his yard this season. Last season he opened his campaign in fine style, winning 2 very decent looking Newmarket handicaps. After those he was swiftly moved up in class to compete in the Queen Alex, but didn't quite see the trip out. He never really troubled the judge in anyway whatsoever after that, finishing well down the field at Sandown, Newbury and Doncaster. Henry Cecil remarks that he needs a bit of cut in the ground, so the going at Chester tomorrow should suit him well, but a slight question mark remains over whether or not he will stay the 2m2f trip. He does, however, look well weighted and as got a big chance here. The main positive is the fact that the horse goes very well fresh, and the trainer is very sweet on him. I like his chances too, and will be backing e/w at 16/1. 1pt e/w @ 16/1 - Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 5, 2009 Author Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season I should add, Paddy Power are doing a money back special if your selection finishes 2nd in the race above... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 6, 2009 Author Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Win Bets - 5 Wins - 3 Voided - 1 Total - 206pts Each Way bets - 5 Wins - 1 Placed - 2 Nowhere - 2 Total - 215pts Ajaan could not have been more unlucky in finishing 2nd by a neck. Still, a decent run for my money, and at 16/1 I beat the SP by a mile. Also, thanks to the money back special from Paddy Power I receive my each way part of the stake back, and added little bonus. So, both my win bets and each way bets are showing a profit. This already seems to indicate I was right to separate the 2 'styles' of bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 6, 2009 Author Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Just watched the race a number of times and I cannot believe how unlucky Ajaan was. It appears that he was clearly laid out for this race. To come from so far behind yet be beaten by a neck must be very frustrating for connections. No doubt, he will be clobbered for this, and it will be interesting to see where he appears next... Maybe a similar bath as last year will follow...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 6, 2009 Author Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season Ajaan (GB) Alanbrooke (GB) Amour Propre (GB) Aqlaam (GB) Art Connoisseur (IRE) Bab Al Salam (USA) Beauty O' Gwaun (IRE) Black Bear Island (IRE) Cara's Request (AUS) Cavera (USA) Conduit (IRE) Crowded House (GB) Cygnet (GB) Desert Creek (IRE) Dream Eater (IRE) Duncan (GB) Electrolyser (IRE) Enderby Spirit (GR) Fiulin (GB) Ghanaati (USA) Harlestone Gold (GB) High Spice (USA) Jack Dawkins (USA) Jukebox Jury (IRE) Kite Wood (IRE) La de Two (IRE) Liberation (IRE) Lonely Star (IRE) Look Here (GB) Marvellous Value (IRE) Mastery (GB) Mooakada (IRE) Native Ruler (GB) Paco Boy (IRE) Palavicini (USA) Pavershooz (GB) Presvis (GB) Rainbow View (USA) Run For The Hills (GB) Sariska (GB) Sea The Stars (IRE) Tajaaweed (USA) Tartan Bearer (IRE) Tawaabb (GB) Tenjack King (GB) The Cheka (IRE) The Which Doctor (GB) Times Up (GB) Times Vital (IRE) Virtual (GB) Westphalia (IRE) Wise Melody (GB) Yeats (IRE) Zacinto (GB) Full, current list :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 6, 2009 Author Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Alexmac on the flat - 2009 season A bit annoyed, as although I was away over the weekend my alerts I had set up for the above horses had not worked properly. I have since added Ghanaati to the list, but Sea The Stars was always there and I didn't back him :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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