Best bet of the day 13/3/09

[fintron]

3.20 Cheltenham - Gold Cup This is the race everyone has been waiting for and it looks a wide open renewal as sixteen horses battle out the £270k prize. Kauto Star heads the market at around 2/1 but the only time I have been drawn in by the hype that surrounds this horse was for the Gold Cup last year, when it was thrashed by Denman. Ruby Walsh has enjoyed a terrific festival and if Kauto Star was to win the race then that could put the icing on the cake for the talented Irishman. However, beaten Gold Cup horses have a miserable record of trying to regain their crown in this, and for that reason, as well as the short price, I am happy to oppose. Even though he has ten Grade 1 wins to his name he is no banker here and a few pieces of timber can ruin even the best laid out of plans no matter how solid the favourite looks on the formbook - as we have seen with Binocular, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss already this week. Although victorious in this race last year there is no guarantee that Denman will ever be able to reproduce that form again. Some poor work at home and a comprehensive defeat to Madison du Berlais at Kempton last month saw his price drift massively in the week preceding Cheltenham, with joint-owner Harry Findlay writing his own horse off in the media. Although he has reportedly worked much better since, there are still niggling doubts about his health after his heart operation and I am also willing to pass over that one. Neptune Collonges is third in the betting at 6/1 but like Kauto Star, he has the beaten runner trend against him. He seems to have improved since last season and has won two Grade 1 races since last March, but he must raise his game to win here as he is up against much stronger opposition. Madison du Berlais has already sprung two shocks this season when landing the Hennessy at odds of 25/1 and then beating Denman by 23 lengths last time out at Kempton. Whether he is able to repeat the dose here is open to debate but I am passing over him on the basis of his course record. It may be that he runs a much better race tomorrow now he has hit a bit of form, but I would want a little bit of stronger course form to back him at the price. Exotic Dancer won over in Ireland last time out but has repeatedly been put in his place by Kauto Star and I am looking for one that is a bit of an unknown in this company, one that could have improved since his last run and throw a spanner in the works for the Dicheat trio. I think Barber's Shop is just the horse. Nicky Henderson's horse is quite lightly raced relative to his rivals here and it is possible that he has the improvement within him to score at the highest level. The form of his second to Imperial Commander in the Paddypower Gold Cup here in November received a major boost today when the Twiston-Davies horse landed the Ryanair Chase, and his profile appeals hugely. With liftime form figures of 1/3122U/124121-21 Barber's Shop is quite similar to previous winners Kauto Star (21/11F2353/112/21F/11111) and Denman (11112/11111/111) in that he rarely finishes out of the first two. Like many winners of this race he has previous placed form at thge Festival having finished a one quarter length second to Fingeronthepulse in the 2008 Jewson. That run was only his fourth over fences after making his chase debut at Newbury and finishing quarter of a length off Big Bucks (another form boost today) before he made several mistakes in the Feltham at Kempton which meant he finished 4th of 8 in that Grade 1 race. However, he can be excused that placing because of his inexperience at the time and his recent runs suggest he is an improved horse now that deserves another go at the top level. He made mincemeat of three rivals in a weak Newbury race in April and then returned from a break to chase home Imperial Commander in the Paddypower in November back in Grade company. He jumped well throughout the race and then built on that performance with an impressive display again in a listed race at Sandown last time out over three miles. It is true to say that this field is much stronger and he must obviously put in a career best to lift the prize as he is yet to win above listed level. However, he seems to be going the right way and the manner of his victory last time out suggested he is worth a go over this slightly longer trip (only proven up to 3m) as he ran out a ready winner. I've backed this at 16/1 and 14/1 and if he was proven over the trip and in the Grade then there is no way he would have been that price, so it is a chance I was willing to take as I think the hype horses may have to step aside and make way for a new star this year. Of the others, Star de Mohaison and Alberta's Run were the other two I had in mind as outsider naps. Star de Mohaison has bounced back well from injury and has proven his class by taking the RSA three years ago. Nicholls pulled him out of the William Hill Trophy earlier in the week to prepare him for this and with the ground seeming to hold up well he looks to have claims at a price. He travelled supremely well at the track last time out before the heavy going found him out and if Barber's Shop is to be beat I hope it is by him. Alberta's Run has some very impressive course form and has also had a similar number of starts to that of previous winners. He too has won the RSA so has proven Grade 1 form, but he has been beaten twice by Madison du Berlais in his last two starts (by Kauto on the other) so for that reason he's not the one for me. If Kauto re-writes the history books then fair play, but he isn't for me at that price and I would much rather take a hopeful punt on an up and coming type with bags of potential. 2 pt win Barber's Shop - Supernap.

[ogii55]

Re: Best bet of the day 13/3/09 Cheltenham 1.30 Stow , 1 pt. Because of the rules for nonhandycap events i will play it just for winner :) But will catch it for e/w tomorrow on bookies. Now we have a horse, who improves after each race. In the last one he beats Indian Groom, who went 5-th after Silk Affair here at Cheltenham not so far away. Venetia williams is on hot run here in Cheltenham so why not to produce another great form horse here :)