muppet77 Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Yes mate I have but the edge is the lowest on this market. This has been discussed earlier if you are interested but basically the bookies edge is half a corner divided by the midpoint. So in the premiership this is less than 5 % which derives from the spread of 0.5 divided by the average midpoint of 11 corners. The other markets have larger edges. Check them out. also my system is far more accurate on total corners compared to individual teams corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield True but my ratings are better than the spreads! Yes, that's why it would be such a shame to kill most of your profits because of over-confident staking :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield But from 190 bets level stakes would give a yield of less than 20%. I have closely examined the relationship between estimated edge and yield and the latter increases as the former increases also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Purely out of interest the soton charlton match had ten corners so my estimate was more accurate on this one occasion. Nevertheless I do not touch any sort of cup games anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield ok this table helps to answer two questions asked: errorbets lev stks profit yield 0.5-0.75 97 255.40 20.10 8% 0.75-1 60 173.75 37.85 22% 1-1.25 28 87.30 30.10 34% 1.25-1.5 10 33.25 18.25 55% 1.5-1.75 4 12.20 0.80 7% 1.75-2 2-2.25 1 1.00 -1.00 -100% ALL 200 562.90 19% 1. notice the stakes are LEVEL and only yield 19% as opposed to 20-30% when i raise the stakes. 2. this includes more matches than i have proofed here (10 more) 3. notice how the yield increases as the error increases - hence the reason as to why i increase the stakes as the error increases rather than just level stake. 4. i have no data when the error is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Purely out of interest the soton charlton match had ten corners so my estimate was more accurate on this one occasion. Nevertheless I do not touch any sort of cup games anymore. correct again M, mine was heading in the right direction :lol, backed out of betting 10-12 with real money, always the way in hindsight LOL. I would have sold if i was following rules of the system rather than instinct, another reason not to allow emotion take over these things, everything must be militant. good table about the increase in stake following error margin. its clear that at less than 0.5 you are not getting value and this is where the bookies will make their money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield But from 190 bets level stakes would give a yield of less than 20%. I have closely examined the relationship between estimated edge and yield and the latter increases as the former increases also. Yes I see that and I certainly don't mean to discredit your findings in any way, your system is working admirably. Personally I'd rather take the low-risk 20% yield (more than enough to make a comfortable living if done yearly) than the higher-risk 26%. And that 26% could have been halved by just one unfortunate bet with your model. I am just saying that in the upper regions of the scale you are doing very high-risk betting - for a max bet betting 15 times the amount you bet on a 0.5 bet. If you lose big on that max bet you'll kill months of work. And you don't really have that much data for the upper regions either, at least that's my impression from looking at the various charts. I hope you don't get offended in any way, I just think it would be a shame to ruin this legendary performance with bad staking strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield No I greatly appreciate your ideas and feedback lardonio. I created the staking table purely on theory. I don't think that I would have the nerve to bet that much. Also remember if there is a spread midpoint that was 3 or 4 corners different to my estimate then sometimes the max stop loss would be less than ten on a low estimate in particular but I do agree with you point. Thanks for the thoughts and I welcome more ideas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield M- being a bit personal but are you staking big money on this or £ a point. I ve been doubling up so the Milan game was good but the seville one hurt...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield I am building the bank so 10p last season and 25p this season to be reviewed on january 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield I've been going on the basis of £1 per point but i have been mainly betting on fixed odds although i have started dabbling on the spreads at betfair in the last week or so. My results this season are, Staked - £134.50 Returned - £149.36 Profit - £14.86 Yield - 11% :cheers Cheers Muppet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Sweet barrhead. keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 14/11/09 Huddersfield Wycombe 12.25 u 4 15/11/09 Southampton Brighton 11.50 u 3 Soton = Spreadex Hudds = SpIn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Hey nice job with this one muppet, I have an asian handicap system with a similar yield (20%) and number of games papertrailed (152). I just posted a thread asking your opinions on it, could you let me know what you think? Good luck with your system, I too am keeping mine under wraps :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 13, 2009 Author Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield I have replied in one of your threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 14/11/09 Huddersfield Wycombe 12.25 u 4 15/11/09 Southampton Brighton 11.50 u 3 Soton = Spreadex Hudds = SpIn dabbling with my first spreads this w/end M, cheers for the inspiration, my charts for these both came out with under as yours did, but not so confident on the huddersfield wycombe one, on a 3 stake with this one, GL mate. Also, if your interested in the results im starting to trial total goals and bookings with this methodology also, makes sense to me that it could work but we shall see.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Muppet, have you done any research if there's any difference in the number of corners from month to month - for example if there's more corners in the months of August and September when the pitches are not usually that soft and wet, and players eager to go, and if there's less in the darkest winter months when pithces are soaking wet, players cold etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 13, 2009 Author Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Good shout lard. On it tomorrow. Will be interesting but I am not sure if it will be statistically significant. Worth a look though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield from the premiership since 2000/1 with 300-400 games per month. 10.89 11.51 10.87 11.09 10.94 11.09 11.41 10.97 10.65 11.28 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec -0.19 0.43 -0.20 0.01 -0.14 0.01 0.33 -0.11 -0.43 0.20 average corners are shown, with the amount above or below the average for the whole sample (11.08). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield +/- average spri mar+april 10.98 -0.10 summ may+aug 11.02 -0.06 aut sep-nov 11.01 -0.07 winter dec-feb 11.23 0.15 average 11.08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield does anyone want to test for significance? i'm not sure that i would blindly bet on the month or season. winter looks interesting until you look at dec, jan and feb separately. pretty random. i think that there are better indicators but an interesting idea. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzfish Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Not a good first half between Huddersfield and Wycombe. Fingers crossed for a quiet second half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Ouch 23 corners at Huddersfield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Yeah I will check but that is pretty much the highest I have seen. Stop loss of ten corners kicks in so it is 21.5 corners not that that helps much! oh well, glad I am still on small stakes. Roll with it. We will recover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Nevermind mate, we're in it for the long term. Huge number of corners in that game well out of the ordinary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Exactly ale. I am surprised it has taken nearly 200 bets to hit a bad patch considering the "odds" are pretty much even for me and the bookie. As you say if this system is to be the grail (or one of them) then it will have to be proven over the super term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Oh the joy of spreading.... just when you think your doing ok, it jumps up and bites your arse :puke..,....Never mind onwards & upwards... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Ouch 23 corners at Huddersfield. chose the wrong time to start trading these with money didnt i?? hope i aint somesort of bad luck charm, i put it down to placing the bet yesterday on the 13th :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Nice one! Blame it on fri 13th. Reckon the yield still in the 20s so I am still smiling. If its the grail it has to survive bumps. By betting in this way I hit the crests too so hey ho. Who believes? I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield i believe boss...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.