muppet77 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield See post 415. There was a russian match with 30 corners! I will check my database tomorrow unless anyone beats me to it but I am sure that the huddersfield game must be up there with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield i most certainly believe in it. I have two other systems that have annually hit the 20s. This one i think is gonna convince me to introduce progressive staking plans next season with a plan to quit work within 5 years :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield cheers guys for the belief. well, no further delaying. here it is. :( SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 26% 55.38 1 191 bets 25% 40.02 0.0% 51.3% wins 24% 25.06 0.0% 3.1% level 23% 10.49 100.0% 45.5% losses 22% 0 40.00 1104.35 staked 21% -2.40 -40.00 240.35 profit 20% -11.58 -5.71 0.64 profit / 1pt stake 19% -20.92 -100% 22% yield 18% -30.42 33.75 record win -40.00 record loss this week this month bets 2 12 profit -40.20 -51.20 stake 40.20 107.20 yield -100% -48% SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 14/11/09 Huddersfield Wycombe 12.25 u 4 23 -40.00 stop loss of 10 corners for the first time ever, so not as bad!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Still with you mate and hopefully Southampton and Brighton will get us back on track today. I only started trading a couple of weeks back and my first bet was the extremely profitable Hearts Hibs game so i'm not gonna quit with the first big loss. Did anyone see the game yesterday? Was the wind a factor???? Seemed strange that a team would get pumped 6-0 yet still achieve 12 corners themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Still with you mate and hopefully Southampton and Brighton will get us back on track today. I only started trading a couple of weeks back and my first bet was the extremely profitable Hearts Hibs game so i'm not gonna quit with the first big loss. Did anyone see the game yesterday? Was the wind a factor???? Seemed strange that a team would get pumped 6-0 yet still achieve 12 corners themselves. thats a good point BH, i didnt see the game personally but the weather must have had some factor in it. weather aint so bad down here today so hopefully the southampton game wont be able to use that one as an excuse :lol :hopegl evryone for today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 191 bets +22% yield M do you have any stats on teams not scoring but having high corner counts, would be interested to know if that wycombe count was up there as one of the highest......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 191 bets +22% yield no mate - i don't have the scores in the database. there is no correlation between corners and goals, but i take your point that it would be interesting to see if it is a record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Did anyone see the game yesterday? Was the wind a factor???? Seemed strange that a team would get pumped 6-0 yet still achieve 12 corners themselves. Saw the highlights, basically highly pressed team firing on all cylinders with defenders getting blocks in and keeper making some saves. Rebounds and ricochets galore. Wasn't clear why there was a similar number the other end tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 191 bets +22% yield pretty common actually. i just looked at last seasons prem. this game was nil nil. 20/09/2008LiverpoolStoke lfc 20 corners! Stoke 3 corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Saw the highlights' date=' basically highly pressed team firing on all cylinders with defenders getting blocks in and keeper making some saves. Rebounds and ricochets galore. Wasn't clear why there was a similar number the other end tho.[/quote'] Cup games are good for buying when a lower league team plays one from a higher division in my multi corner experience . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 191 bets +22% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 24% 51.70 1 192 bets 23% 36.57 0.0% 51.0% wins 22% 21.83 0.0% 3.1% level 21% 7.45 100.0% 45.8% losses 20% 0 16.50 1120.85 staked 19% -4.42 -16.50 223.85 profit 18% -13.92 -5.50 0.59 profit / 1pt stake 17% -23.58 -100% 20% yield 16% -33.40 33.75 record win -40.00 record loss this week this month bets 3 13 profit -56.70 -67.70 stake 56.70 123.70 yield -100% -55% SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 15/11/09 Southampton Brighton 11.50 u 3 17 -16.50 well that's 5 losers in a row, totalling losses of 80 units! glad this week is done. looks like the grail is being tested to the max. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield that's my yield, that is. shocking freefall. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield i chose a stupid bloody time to come in on this didnt i? and rather stupidly with 1 pound stakes, so im now 47 quid down after the last 2 days. not sure whether to continue with quid stakes now or 10p ones, im glad i made around the same on other systems this weekend or i wud be peed right off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield It's hopefully just a bit of negative variance i'm sure you will bounceback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield M have you noticed any correlation with the lower leagues being less successful than the major ones as what tends to be on a lot of markets...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield M ... if you look at your graph and look at peak to trough runs you'll notice that back at around 48 bets the roi was 26% and then around 64 bets you were down to 9% roi ..... by about 75 bets you were back up to 31% roi. The current poor run is within a previous peak to trough and you've recovered from that before ..... keep the faith :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield does anyone want to test for significance? i'm not sure that i would blindly bet on the month or season. winter looks interesting until you look at dec, jan and feb separately. pretty random. i think that there are better indicators but an interesting idea. :ok Hi, thanks for doing this! I am no statistical expert and don't know how to test for significance, but to me it looks a lot like there's no betting edge of any kind to be found in these figures. I guess one would need a weather report for each match as well if one was to dig deeper into this, but I'm pretty sure it's not worth the (huge) hassle :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield M have you noticed any correlation with the lower leagues being less successful than the major ones as what tends to be on a lot of markets...... This is a very good point. I personally do separate statistics for all leagues when betting on projects such as this. I also have a bit of problems (I know it's easy to be smart in hindsight) understanding the Under12.5 play in the Huddersfield match, as Huddersfield probably have the highest corner rate in the league this year (and also last year) and has hardly played a game at home with less than 13 corners, and their 3 latest counts before this weekend were 13, 21 (!) and 15. But of course it all comes down to the emphasis of the system, and as they system has produced a 20% yield so far it certainly can't be critizised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield M have you noticed any correlation with the lower leagues being less successful than the major ones as what tends to be on a lot of markets...... not really bud...these are just my league matches....... bets strike profit yield diff AAE bets sweden 2 50% 8.25 100% -0.09 japan 6 67% 24.50 75% -0.08 italy 8 63% 29.60 71% 0.00 scot 16 69% 44.85 55% -0.12 spain 52 58% 133.55 42% -0.07 champ 13 54% 33.65 41% -0.01 france 8 63% 6.95 21% -0.03 e2 5 20% 2.85 13% 0.35 bsq 8 38% 5.60 12% 0.04 prem 46 43% -8.50 -4% 0.05 holland 3 67% -10.65 -53% -0.12 e1 4 25% -40.85 -54% 0.00 germany 6 17% -21.50 -73% -0.08 the final column shows the corner error difference between me and the bookie, so a negative number means i am lower than the bookie (more accurate). if anything, looking at the number of bets, the premiership is the most disappointing! i don't really want to get to much into sub sets and sub sub sets as that is close to data mining. if this is the grail, then it works on all leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Hi, thanks for doing this! I am no statistical expert and don't know how to test for significance, but to me it looks a lot like there's no betting edge of any kind to be found in these figures. I guess one would need a weather report for each match as well if one was to dig deeper into this, but I'm pretty sure it's not worth the (huge) hassle :eek just ran a quick Chi Squared stats test on this - there is no significant difference in expected and actual data when looking at both season and month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield M ... if you look at your graph and look at peak to trough runs you'll notice that back at around 48 bets the roi was 26% and then around 64 bets you were down to 9% roi ..... by about 75 bets you were back up to 31% roi. The current poor run is within a previous peak to trough and you've recovered from that before ..... keep the faith :ok cheers Kanga, I keep looking at the bigger picture rather than fractals and zooming in on small parts of the whole. onwards and upwards! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield I also have a bit of problems (I know it's easy to be smart in hindsight) understanding the Under12.5 play in the Huddersfield match, as Huddersfield probably have the highest corner rate in the league this year (and also last year) and has hardly played a game at home with less than 13 corners, and their 3 latest counts before this weekend were 13, 21 (!) and 15. But of course it all comes down to the emphasis of the system, and as they system has produced a 20% yield so far it certainly can't be critizised. fair point, but as you say it's what is spat out of the spreadsheet. wycombe's last 4 aways have totalled: 9, 7, 12 and 9 so fairly inconclusive if you calculate it using that method. in fact they are half a corner on average below the league average for the whole of this season. lies, damned lies.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield Well I'm sure things will start working in your favour again pretty soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield Hey muppet, I've got a quick question. I've never come across this type of betting (spread betting?) where you lose money for additional corners opposite your prediction and make more money if there are more/less (buy/sell) corners than your prediction. Is there any kind of betting like this available for asian handicap? For example, if you picked Team A at -1 and they won by 5 goals, is there a type of bet that pays you more for the 4 extra goals over the line you bought? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield Hey muppet' date=' I've got a quick question. I've never come across this type of betting (spread betting?) where you lose money for additional corners opposite your prediction and make more money if there are more/less (buy/sell) corners than your prediction. Is there any kind of betting like this available for asian handicap? For example, if you picked Team A at -1 and they won by 5 goals, is there a type of bet that pays you more for the 4 extra goals over the line you bought?[/quote'] Yes mate all those bets are avaiable through the Spread firm Sporting Index Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield Yes mate all those bets are avaiable through the Spread firm Sporting Index So can you tell me if I've got this right? Looking at the line for Holland vs. Paraguay and Holland -1 asian handicap: Under info it says: Win by greater than Handicap = 25 pts Win match by exactly Handicap = 10 pts Any other result = 0 pts. Sell: 10 Buy: 11.5 So if I bought this line at 11.5 for 1$ then the following results are possible: (Holland is home team) 0-2: (0-11.5= -11.5), 11.5 x 1$ = -11.5$ 0-1: (0-11.5= -11.5), 11.5 x 1$ = -11.5$ 0-0: (0-11.5= -11.5), 11.5 x 1$ = -11.5$ 1-0: (10-11.5= -1.5), 1.5 x 1$ = -1.5$ 2-0: (25-11.5= 13.5), 13.5 x 1$ = +13.5$ 3-0: (50-11.5= 38.5), 38.5 x 1$ = +38.5$ 4-0: (75-11.5= 63.5), 63.5 x 1$ = +63.5$ Can you let me know if I have this right? Sorry for posting on your thread like this muppet. I'm very interested in how this spread betting actually works though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield No, unfortunately you are not right. The key to reading this is the 'info'. You get 25 'points' if Holland beat the handicap, 10 points if they win by the handicap and 0 if they don't beat the handicap. So your chart would look like this: (if buying $1 at 11.5) (Holland is home team) 0-2: (0-11.5= -11.5), 11.5 x 1$ = -11.5$ 0-1: (0-11.5= -11.5), 11.5 x 1$ = -11.5$ 0-0: (0-11.5= -11.5), 11.5 x 1$ = -11.5$ 1-0: (10-11.5= -1.5), 1.5 x 1$ = -1.5$ 2-0: (25-11.5= 13.5), 13.5 x 1$ = +13.5$ 3-0: (25-11.5= 38.5), 38.5 x 1$ = +13.5$ 4-0: (25-11.5= 63.5), 63.5 x 1$ = +13.5$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield Ipt123, what you are looking for (maybe...) is the very first market listed on the Sporting Index list of bets for a game. This is the 'Winning margin' market. For example, for Holland - Paraguay, you can sell at 0.9 and buy at 1.1. If you buy at 1.1 for 10 dollars, your chart would look like this: (I hope I get this right) (Holland is home team) 0-2: (-2-1.1= -3.1), -3.1 x 10$ = -31.5$ 0-1: (-1-1.1= -2.1), -2.1 x 10$ = -21.5$ 0-0: (0-1.1= -1.1), -1.1 x 10$ = -11.5$ 1-0: (1-1.1= -0.1), -0.1 x 10$ = -1$ 2-0: (2-1.1= 0.9), 0.9 x 10$ = +9$ 3-0: (3-1.1= 1.9), 1.9 x 10$ = +19.5$ 4-0: (4-1.1= 2.9), 2.9 x 10$ = +29.5$ This illustrates the concept of spread betting. The bookmaker makes money off the gap between the sell and the buy price - the spread (and also off balancing the book). The gambler makes or loses money according to how right or wrong he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield Ipt123, what you are looking for (maybe...) is the very first market listed on the Sporting Index list of bets for a game. This is the 'Winning margin' market. For example, for Holland - Paraguay, you can sell at 0.9 and buy at 1.1. If you buy at 1.1 for 10 dollars, your chart would look like this: (I hope I get this right) (Holland is home team) 0-2: (-2-1.1= -3.1), -3.1 x 10$ = -31.5$ 0-1: (-1-1.1= -2.1), -2.1 x 10$ = -21.5$ 0-0: (0-1.1= -1.1), -1.1 x 10$ = -11.5$ 1-0: (1-1.1= -0.1), -0.1 x 10$ = -1$ 2-0: (2-1.1= 0.9), 0.9 x 10$ = +9$ 3-0: (3-1.1= 1.9), 1.9 x 10$ = +19.5$ 4-0: (4-1.1= 2.9), 2.9 x 10$ = +29.5$ This illustrates the concept of spread betting. The bookmaker makes money off the gap between the sell and the buy price - the spread (and also off balancing the book). The gambler makes or loses money according to how right or wrong he is. Thanks for the info Lardonio, I'm going to implement this into my system :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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