happygooner Posted February 22, 2009 Share Posted February 22, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Unlucky with that last lay loon.:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Irritable Update Right - new week, not really changed much about the system apart from adding home sides to the mix (and so renamed the thread to Irritable Selections). The odds will be lower (just CAN'T have what happened on Saturday to ever happen again...doesn't help with larger odds). Using the thread to further along the live testing process....hopefully this week can be better, and I can watch the bank climb up and get back into normal money ("normal money"? sure, obviously as opposed to the fake money i've been betting with upto this point :lol). So, after all that, there are three selections today, will post them shortly :) :@:@:@ wow....0-9, never laid something that's lost *that* much before, it would be funny if it wasn't so....unfunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Irritable Selections (23/02/09) MATCHDAY 8 Well, drop one selection because the odds shot up, leaving only two for today: DATE TIME LEAGUE FIXTURE SELECTION LAY ODDS 23/02/09 20:15 German 2 Bundesliga FC St. Pauli von 1910 e.V. v 1. FC Kaiserslautern Away 2.60 23/02/09 20:45 Italian Serie B Pisa Calcio v Salernitana Calcio 1919 Home 2.14 I've lowered to max liabilty to 10%, which means that stakes for these games are £2.77 and £3.89. Good Luck Us :ok conv_864.xlsconv_865.zip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good luck today Loon n Goon :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good luck today Loon n Goon :ok Thanks....can always do with more luck :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good luck today Loon n Goon :ok Thanks, i'll take some of the credit while we are floundering but if this ever does get off the ground most of that really must come back to loon:ok In the meantime we just keep plugging away...:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Irritable SUMMARY (23/02/09) MATCHDAY 8 If the odds on the Greek game hadn't risen (I would have laid them earlier in the morning if i wasn't having trouble with my data updates) then there would be three winners today, i'll have to settle for two (and stop being greedy)....nice to be able to see the bank rising on two consecutive matchdays, no doubt a glitch and losing returns soon ;) FC St. Pauli von 1910 e.V. v 1. FC Kaiserslautern :D Pisa Calcio v Salernitana Calcio 1919 :D STARTING BANK £55.94 CURRENT BANK £51.07 P / L -£4.87 GROWTH -9% SELECTIONS 18 WINS 10 LOSSES 8 STRIKE RATE 56% AVERAGE ODDS 3.95 MINIMUM ODDS 1.72 MAXIMUM ODDS 7.80 MIN BANK 41% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good days laying loon:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections still watching with interest here lunatism, great stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 conv_868.xlsconv_869.zip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good luck with these loon. At what odds are you now filtering out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good luck with these loon. At what odds are you now filtering out? Below 2.85, that way can afford a lower strike rate :ok (not just blind laying low odds though ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Irritable Update Damn red cards going against us today :tongue2 Not that the red card handed out to Grays had anything to do with the first goal they conceded, but very possibly hindered their chances of getting an equaliser, especially given that it was at the start of the second half after the team talk....ah well :unsure And having read the Cheltenham report, sounds like they are at just a much a loss to explain their loss as me...leading 1-0 at half time, Millwall get a penalty at the start of the 2nd and suddenyl they capitulate...regulation form if nothing else..... Does it matter though? How does it affect the stats? ..... Summary to follow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good results again today:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Good results again today:ok Yep - hopefully out of the bad patch and onto a good run now! Interestingly, this turn in form seems (small sample size - could just be me looking to hard at my PC screen) linked to average number of goals scored. First week: 2.91 goals Second week: 2.00 goals This week (so far): 1.90 goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Irritable SUMMARY (25/02/09) MATCHDAY 11 Well, interesting - hardly any matches (at all) today, yet still manage to have a selection for the system. Let's hope it does well :hope DATE TIME LEAGUE FIXTURE SELECTION LAY ODDS 25/02/09 20:45 English Championship Cardiff City FC v QPR Home 1.93 conv_870.xlsconv_871.zip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 25, 2009 Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Excellent work! It's clearly because I've stopped laying them for the time being:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 conv_872.zipconv_873.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections I'm amazed you managed to get round it. You deserve nothing but good luck today for the sheer effort if nothing else:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections I'm amazed you managed to get round it so am i ...... they've made my life more tricky (at least until i can get round it permanently :@) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Is there enough in the "bank" to make all these bets? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Irritable Selections Is there enough in the "bank" to make all these bets? :unsure :ok Yes, why? If there were 1 million bets (heaven forbid), there would be enough, there will always be enough "bank" to make any number of bets..... If you looked at the staking spreadsheets that I attached, you could play around and see that...but I tried to explain that earlier in the thread when I described the staking plan anyway: All stakes to fixed liabilty (an early change made for the "plan") Fixed liability is initially 20% for each selection on any given day Initially so only, on days where the combined total liability is higher than 60% of the entire bank, stakes are calculated differently Differently meaning that 60% of the bank is divided between ALL selections on that day, and divided equally so that they all are at the same liability For yesterday, that was 6.47 liability per match (while the maximum possible liability - if the total liability hadn't exceeded 60% - would have been 13.08) Today, the max possible liability is 13.90, but due to the potential total liability exceeding 60%. the liability is set at 1.97 for each selection Hopefully now it makes sense to you :ok and you can understand my above claim of being able to handle any (theorectical) number of selections with any bank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Irritable Update Odd that.....two games i seemed to have missed out before....: DATE TIME LEAGUE FIXTURE SELECTION LAY ODDS 28/02/09 16:00 Scottish Third Division East Stirlingshire FC v Dumbarton FC Home 2.64 28/02/09 17:00 Spanish Segunda B - Group 1 SD Lemona v Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa Away 2.68 Here's hoping they do the business too :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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