Tipster5000 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 110 Kempton - Pancake @ 11/4 bet365 Has been going close in recent runs but has been in need of a drop in trip from 3m . Todays should be ideal and with the ground in his favour too. we should see some improvement from his last 2 runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 2:50 Kempton Denman would walk this at his best but who knows what he is capable of after a long absence and heart problem. Connections won't care if he wins or not and will not want a hard race. Has jumped left on a right-handed track before. Sadly, must be taken on today. Joe Lively won the Feltham here last season but may prefer a left-handed track and a more severe test of stamina. An Accordion would be interesting at the prices if it was not for his injury. Another on the come back trail. Idles badly in front and is difficult to know how much he really has left. Won the William Hill at the Festival last year and might be having a prep run for that. Madison Du Berlais found improvement from somewhere to win the Hennessey last time. Seemed exposed prior to that. Difficult (again) to see him being good enough unless at least three of his rivals under-perform. Niche Market I backed at long odds to win a handicap last time. But this is surely beyond him. Keep an eye on him though, for the four miler at Cheltenham! Alberta's Run's stable is in much better form now than when running poorly on his first two starts this term. Well beaten in the Hennessey and possibly is better in small fields anyway. Put up an improved effort in the King George and looks the one to give Denman most to do. If he acts on the soft going. Has won on soft but very best form on good or good-soft. Connections believe he is better on a sound surface but too early to tell. At 6/1 is worth taking a chance. Trabolgan is the third Hennessey winner in the field. Been injured and not enough encouragement in his hurdling reappearance. 3:25 Kempton Keepthedreamalive ran well last time for today's excellent jockey. But is inconsistent and not the best of jumpers normally. Can front run. Lightning Strike does not have much experience to be taking on established horses in a race like this. Although unexposed, his jumping may suffer. Oceanos Des Obeaux has not been in great form, sometimes finds little. Does usually race prominently which may be an advantage here (needs to be). Moon Over Miami has a chance on the form book but I am convinced is better going left-handed. Needs to prove he stays the trip too. Really like Tartak as a horse, very genuine, usually jumps well, consistent. But seems more exposed than most novices. Sure to be bang there challenging, but just too short a price. Can front run or be held up. Osaka d'Airy looked the winner last time before fading badly over 3m in Ireland. Jumped better there than previously this season and this shorter trip should suit. Paul Nicholls has only had him for three runs and improvement could be forthcoming. 4:00 Kempton Double Dizzy gives me the impression of a horse who will only win if he can do it on the bridle. As he did last time for today's pilot. Has I believe had breathing problems. This does look a weak race but his price does not look attractive enough. Strawberry may have broke a blood vessel last time and comes from an out of form stable. Front runner. Chiaro is not badly handicapped on his best form but seems to have lost his enthusiasm. Saw him at Fontwell last time and did not want to know. That's An Idea is having his first start this season / for Jonjo. Was with Charlie Swann. Fell only start at 3m, won on heavy over 2 ½ miles and should stay the trip on breeding. Front runner over shorter distances and has pulled when not in front. It is possible AP can work his magic. There seems little interest in him in the market so far (betting owner), keep an eye out on course. Saved on him. Portland Bill has possibilities but rarely jumps well enough. Pretty Star is the only one without a lot of negatives. Won well last time, blip on penultimate start but a win before that too. Stable in good form too and is the one they all have to beat. Pass Me A Dime ran well enough last time but usually finds the fences getting in the way. Chance if putting in a descent round. Macmar and Hernando Cordobes seem to have lost their way. (Gold Heart non-runner) Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 12.40 Kempton - OISEAU DE NUIT - e/w - Able to run off 10lb lower than his Chase rating, OdN was only denied by a typical AP ride last week off this mark. Rhys Flint is back on board today, taking off 6, and this combination won a Chase off this same mark in November. The soft conditions suit, and has every chance of going very close today. 1.40 Kempton - PAUSE AND CLAUSE - Providing the ground's no softer than soft, then everything looks set for Pause And Clause to go one better than his good second to Mad Max lto. He had the smart Shoreacres 4l back in 3rd that day, with a big gap back to the rest. Winner of a bumper on GS, he was making headway on his hurdle debut on Heavy when making a mistake, before staying on again. This slight step up in trip from lto will suit, and, as said previously, everything looks right for a bold effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 3.25 This is the race i thought would be the best one to watch today with so many in with a chance. Keepthedreamalive - doesnt particularly favour heavy ground so may struggle today, best performance was winning a 7 runner novice chase at exeter last march but although not often out of the placings, will have to improve a great deal today to beat this field. Lighting Strike - won its 2 novice chases in good style but not sure what it has beaten so far in those races & although Venetia is in top form this horse still has to show its mettle against experienced chasers. Will like the ground & distance is ideal. Moon Over Miami - i highlighted this yesterday as my BBOTD & still have a feeling it will go close on this ground. Has a grade 2 novice chase win to its name back in 07 round Cheltenham. The only thing that puts me off is whether it favours a LH track better but has finished 2nd & 5th here on previous visits. Oceanos Des Obeaux - Ran My petra to 6L at Ascot in Nov 08 & is closely matched with the topweight today after that horse beat it 3.5L with a 4lb weight pull. Ground is ok with this one. Tartak - maybe better suited by further but performed admirably in 4 decent chases this term going down to the likes of Gone to Lunch & Wil be done. Wont be far away again today but may find a few others quicker again. Osako d'airy - Not won since runing up a sequence last season when well treated & todays ground may just find this one out as it will be testing today. 4th behind Possol at Cheltenham looks decent form though. Captain Marlon - looks out of its depth today in this class. Recomendation Moon over miami still looks the best value in the race at 13/2 Blue sq. lightning strike is next best for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 2-15 kempton-thursday knight- looked progresive at the end of last season,and can win here.he won very easy at plumpton 2 starts ago,but on his last run he finished 2nd to 0ld brigade,that race came to soon,so providing hes fit to do himself justice on this is first run since november then he should take all the beating especially as he will handle the ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Im done with racing after that fav at Kempton, How can they not void bets on it? Gutted cause I had quite a big bet on it. Paddys and Boylesports doing the right thing by voiding, betfair dont give a crap..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 3.25 Kempton - Lightning Strike Waited to see how Hohlethelonely will run in the first and he won easily. I was going to back Moon Over Miami, but I think the Venetia Williams stable is in the best shape of all yards in this weather. My selection here will like the conditions and the distance is spot on. With Paul Nicholls horse in the race we also get quite good odds. Lightning Strike should be favourite according to my book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 3:25 Kempton Tartak 1pt win 7/2 generally Has been running in higher grades and performing well. Looking back at French form went well at Auteuil, so should be at home here. 4:00 Kempton Macmar 5pts win 3pts place 20/1 generally Has run well here in the past. Should be in with every chance of the mark, and handles the ground. Has a good a chance as many shorter in the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Im done with racing after that fav at Kempton, How can they not void bets on it? Gutted cause I had quite a big bet on it. Paddys and Boylesports doing the right thing by voiding, betfair dont give a crap..... i would agree but not sure Betfair can do this within their exchange betting set up as they only take the commission from the bets not the winnings. It came under orders & thats the rules i am afraid, same as those that get stuck in the stalls on the flat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Didnt see it, what happened....? Refused to race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Didnt see it' date=' what happened....? Refused to race?[/quote'] Refused to even join up with the rest of the horses at the start, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainbow Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 denman lay. 250 kemp. at the prices i think its worth taking him on today. returning after an injury and up against a couple of decent types, i just feel it will be a close run thing and so at around 4/6 he is a lay for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Had a not unsubstantial bet on Denman at 2.04 on Betfair just after the off. Just too big a price. I tried to resist, but as the price got longer I got drawn in :hope Have set a lay at 1.20 to trade out for a free bet in case it is going really well before tiring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 put this in wrong thread earlier! 2.50 I am going to nail my colours to ALBERTAS RUN which finally showed in the King George that last years Sun Alliance win was a good effort by chasing home the unbeatable Kauto Star over this course & distance. It gets 5lb off favourite Denman today therefore that might just be in its favour with Denman obviously having a few question marks over fitness etc (lets just hope it runs well & gets round). 5/1 mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Out at 1.76 as not confident Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 8.2 now :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Denman out to 10/3 for Gold Cup atm, imagine that will get longer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Denman out to 10/3 for Gold Cup atm' date=' imagine that will get longer[/quote'] Market Suspended immediately on finish of race. Do Betfair normally do that? Is it not up to the punters to be on the ball and amending their open positions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Oh dear. What do we think then? Didn't handle the ground? The track? Beaten by a better horse????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Oh dear. What do we think then? Didn't handle the ground? The track? Beaten by a better horse????? :clap to Pipe, some slag him off but that was a serious performance from his front runner, will be looking at that henessey form now !! Denman was clear of the others & the winner time was much better than standard, Cheltenham will be different, these are 2 completely different tracks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Gold Cup Betting on Betfair Best Mate 2/1 Denman 7/2 Madison De Berlais 15/2 I think I'd want to be seeing Denman put in a performance before backing him for this, that isn't going to happen now with the big day 5 weeks away. Madison De Berlais isn't suddenly a single figure chance for the GC imo, and looks a decent lay at the price, not sure how suited by the undulations it will be. That leaves Best Mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 I wouldnt be too disheartened (excuse the pun!) by that. Like Bowles says, the front 2 were clear and Cheltenham will bring out another gear. I'd take 100/30 i think. Pleased with this too - another start to finish win. 110 Kempton - Pancake @ 11/4 >bet365 Has been going close in recent runs but has been in need of a drop in trip from 3m . Todays should be ideal and with the ground in his favour too. we should see some improvement from his last 2 runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Gold Cup Betting on Betfair Best Mate 2/1 Can I have a bit of this? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 I think you mean Kauto star Sampa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 :clap to Pipe, some slag him off but that was a serious performance from his front runner, will be looking at that henessey form now !! Air Force One looks good now. Could beat Neptune and Exotic next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster5000 Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 I dont think the great Best Mate will make a comeback from the dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster5000 Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Madison 12/1 With William Hill for GC & Denman 4/1 with Ladbrokes. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 :lol wtf :eek Does a 3 yr old running around causing mayhem and a 7 month old demanding attention qualify as justifiable cause for my head being battered? :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Kempton 07/02/09 Madison 12/1 With William Hill for GC & Denman 4/1 with Ladbrokes. :loon I have Neptune Collanges at double figures. This looks massive now :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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