6 Nations Rugby

[Wumpking]

Just over a week to go until the start of the 6 Nations. Felt it was time to post some early thoughts on the opening round of matches using the IRB ratings as a guide.

[Wumpking]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby England v Italy First up on Saturday 7th February is England v Italy. England are currently ranked 6th in the IRB world rankings with a rating of 80.86. Italy are currently 11th with a rating of 74.64. Based on these ratings, England should win by 20 points which equates to odds of: England - 1.07 Italy - 22.0 Draw - 50.0 Best odds are: England - 1.14 (Betfair) Italy - 9.0 (Betfair) Draw - 41.0 (Bet365) This is over 6.5% above the ratings based price. I feel therefore this offers a bit of value. Bet is: England - £50.00 @ 1.14 with Betfair

[Wumpking]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Ireland v France The other match on Saturday 7th February is Ireland v France. Ireland are currently ranked 8th in the IRB world rankings with a rating of 78.45. France are currently one position in front of them in 7th with a rating of 79.49. Based on these ratings, Ireland should win by 4 points which equates to odds of around: Ireland - 1.60 France - 2.35 Draw - 50.0 Best odds are: Ireland - 1.78 (Betfair) France - 2.38 (Betfair) Draw - 30.0 (Betfair) Ireland's odds are nearly 9.5% above the ratings based price. Again I feel this offers a bit of value. Bet is: Ireland - £50.00 @ 1.78 with Betfair

[Wumpking]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Scotland v Wales Last of the opening round matches is Scotland v Wales on Sunday 8th February. Scotland are currently ranked 9th in the IRB world rankings with a rating of 76.76. Wales are currently 5th with a rating of 81.03. Based on these ratings, Wales should win by 3 points which equates to odds of: Scotland - 2.45 Wales - 1.65 Draw - 50.0 Best odds are: Scotland - 2.74 (Betfair) Wales - 1.66 (VC) Draw - 26.0 (Betfair) Scotland's odds certainly offer a bit of value (a lot of bookies go much lower than this). I can't bring myself to back them however as I do think Wales will win this match. Unfortunately no value with the current Welsh odds. Therefore: No Bet

[Wumpking]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Best odds on both England and Ireland have shortened to 1.13 and 1.76 respectively. Biggest price shift however is in the Scotland v Wales game. Scotland can now be backed at 2.94 and Wales at 1.61. There is even a small arb currently available. Still don't fancy Scotland despite the increasingly generous odds on offer.

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Ireland - France Date: Saturday 7 February, 2009 Kick-off: 17:00 GMT Venue: Croke Park Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales) Touch judges: Dave Pearson (England), David Changleng (Scotland) TMO: Giulio de Santis (Italy) Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney (Leinster), 14 Tommy Bowe (Ospreys), 13 Brian O'Driscoll (Leinster, captain), 12 Paddy Wallace (Ulster), 11 Luke Fitzgerald (Leinster), 10 Ronan O'Gara (Munster), 9 Tomas O'Leary (Munster), 8 Jamie Heaslip (Leinster), 7 David Wallace (Munster), 6 Stephen Ferris (Ulster), 5 Paul O'Connell (Munster), 4 Donncha O'Callaghan (Munster), 3 John Hayes (Munster), 2 Jerry Flannery (Munster), 1 Marcus Horan (Munster). Replacements: 16 Rory Best (Ulster), 17 Tom Court (Ulster), 18 Mal O'Kelly (Leinster), 19 Denis Leamy (Munster), 20 Peter Stringer (Munster), 21 Gordon D'Arcy (Leinster), 22 Geordan Murphy (Leicester). France: 15 Clement Poitrenaud (Toulouse), 14 Julien Malzieu (Clermont-Auvergne), 13 Florian Fritz (Toulouse), 12 Yannick Jauzion (Toulouse), 11 Maxime Medard (Toulouse), 10 Lionel Beauxis (Stade Francais), 9 Sebastien Tillous-Borde (Castres), 8 Imanol Harinordoquy (Biarritz), 7 Fulgence Ouedraogo (Montpellier), 6 Thierry Dusautoir (Toulouse), 5 Lionel Nallet (Castres) ©, 4 Sebastien Chabal (Sale), 3 Benoit Lecouls (Toulouse), 2 Dimitri Szarzewski (Stade Francais), 1 Lionel Faure (Sale). Replacements: 16 Benjamin Kayser (Leicester), 17 Nicolas Mas (Perpignan), 18 Romain Millo-Chluski (Toulouse), 19 Louis Picamoles (Montpellier), 20 Morgan Parra (Bourgoin), 21 Benoit Baby (Clermont-Auvergne), 22 Cedric Heymans (Toulouse).

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby England-Italy Date: Saturday 7 February, 2009 Kick-off: 15:00 GMT Venue: Twickenham Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa) Touch judges: Joel Jutge (France), Peter Allan (Scotland) TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales) England: 15 Delon Armitage (London Irish), 14 Paul Sackey (London Wasps), 13 Mike Tindall (Gloucester Rugby), 12 Riki Flutey (London Wasps), 11 Mark Cueto (Sale Sharks), 10 Andy Goode (Brive), 9 Danny Care (Harlequins), 8 Nick Easter (Harlequins), 7 Steffon Armitage (London Irish), 6 James Haskell (London Wasps), 5 Nick Kennedy (London Irish), 4 Steve Borthwick (Saracens, captain), 3 Phil Vickery (London Wasps), 2 Lee Mears (Bath Rugby), 1 Andrew Sheridan (Sale Sharks). Replacements: 16 Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), 17 Julian White (Leicester Tigers), 18 Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers), 19 Joe Worsley (London Wasps), 20 Ben Foden (Northampton Saints), 21 Shane Geraghty (London Irish), 22 Mathew Tait (Sale Sharks). Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Kane Robertson, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mirco Bergamasco, 10 Andrea Marcatto, 9 Mauro Beragamasco, 8 Alessandro Zani, 7 Sergio Parisse (cap.), 6 Josh Sole, 5 Marco Bortolami, 4 Santiago Dellapée, 3 Martin Castrogiovani, 2 Fabio Ongaro, 1 Salvatore Perugini. Replacements: 16 Carlo Festuccia, 17 Carlos Nieto, 18 Tommaso Reato, 19 Jean-Francois Montauriol, 20 Giulio Toniolatti, 21 Luke McLean, 22 Matteo Pratichetti.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Just wondering how much value these lose once the 5% Betfair commission is taken off? Do they still remain "good value"?

England v Italy This is over 6.5% above the ratings based price. I feel therefore this offers a bit of value. Bet is: England - £50.00 @ 1.14 with Betfair

Ireland v France Ireland's odds are nearly 9.5% above the ratings based price. Again I feel this offers a bit of value. Bet is: Ireland - £50.00 @ 1.78 with Betfair

[Wumpking]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby

Just wondering how much value these lose once the 5% Betfair commission is taken off? Do they still remain "good value"?

Hi Samba_SamPa Thanks for the input. You are right that some 'value' is lost betting with Betfair. I should have made this a bit clearer in the posts :$. The 5% commission on winnings reduces the 1.14 odds on England to 1.133 whilst the 1.78 odds on Ireland is reduced to 1.741. These prices are still 5.7% and 8.8% above the odds calculated via the ratings. I tend to consider rugby odds to be value if I can obtain 5% more than the odds calculated (by what ever method). I do still feel therefore that both odds offer a bit of value. Of course, the value is totally dependent on the IRB ratings being a correct reflection of the current strength of the sides . . .

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby

Of course, the value is totally dependent on the IRB ratings being a correct reflection of the current strength of the sides . . .

And the ground/weather conditions (eg Wales in Edinburgh, Sunday) and all the rest of it. Yet, Wumpking, your model is always a good place to start. I'll try to suggest some spread bets here when I see what they have up. :ok

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby at this point if someone got news on weather in Ireland for Saturday could help me to find some good pick for this match :tongue2

[Steve-C]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby supposedly light showers

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Scotland - Wales Date: Sunday, February 8 Kick-off: 15:00 GMT Venue: Murrayfield Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland) Touch judges: Chris White (England), Rob Debney (England) TMO: Geoff Warren (England) Scotland: 15 Hugo Southwell (Edinburgh), 14 Simon Webster (Edinburgh), 13 Ben Cairns (Edinburgh), 12 Graeme Morrison (Glasgow), 11 Sean Lamont (Northampton), 10 Phil Godman, 9 Mike Blair (capt), 8 Simon Taylor (Stade Francais), 7 John Barclay (Glasgow), 6 Ally Hogg (Edinburgh), 5 Jim Hamilton (Edinburgh), 4 Jason White (Sale), 3 Geoff Cross (Edinburgh), 2 Ross Ford (Edinburgh), 1 Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh). Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall (Glasgow), 17 Alastair Dickinson (Gloucester), 18 Kelly Brown (Glasgow), 19 Scott Gray (Northampton), 20 Chris Cusiter (Perpignan), 21 Chris Paterson (Edinburgh), 22 Max Evans (Glasgow). Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 Jamie Roberts, 12 Gavin Henson, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Michael Phillips, 8 Andy Powell, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Ryan Jones (captain), 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Ian Gough, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins. Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 John Yapp, 18 Luke Charteris, 19 Dafydd Jones, 20 Dwayne Peel, 21 James Hook, 22 Tom Shanklin.

[NIGEL2611]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Weather for the match at Twickenham is currently snow/sleet showers in the morning clearing away to leave a sunnier afternoon. They have cleared six inches of snow from the pitch at Twickenham and it is currently under a tent which has hot air blowers keeping it from freezing. The pitch should be in good shape come Saturday, maybe a little wet under foot depending on when they take the covers off! There is a lot of talk about Goode at Fly Half and for me he is currently the best English Fly Half available. I never thought I would say that and I do not think it is a fluke that since he left Leicester they have become slightly blunted in attack. He is currently top points scorer in the Top 14 in France and he will give England a far sturdier look and his kicking skills will go along way to keeping Englang going forward. Italy's power lies with their forwards and they can stand up to any other international pack but their weakness is their strength in depth! They also go into this game without a recognised scrum half and they are putting their faith in Bergamasco, a flanker, to be able to fill the void. I imagine that Danny Care & Harry Ellis are currently rubbing their hands together in anticipation at having a run at Mr Bergamasco. This also probably speaks volumes for the type of game that Italy are going to play, the Italian forwards will certainly see more than their fair share of the ball this Saturday! I feel that England should be able to keep the ball away from Italy and if they dominate possession like they should, then England should be able to spread the ball out wide and tire out the Italian pack. This should then set the game up nicely in the second half for a few English tries. I like the look of the 15 point handicap currently on offer and I believe that the pace England now possess should see off the Italians. (:hope) England winning margin 11-15 6/1 P.Power England winning margin 16-20 13/2 P.Power I have been told that the covers are coming off the pitch Saturday morning and the latest forecast is early wintry showers clearing to bright skies for match, max temp 1c.

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby search some news about Italy under20 line up tonight vs England if someone can help me ;)

[shane cunningham]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby i'd try a terble on england ireland and wales worth 50 euro (pardon the pun)

[SteveO]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f46/metro-fantasy-rugby-79864/#post1302805 You rugby fans check out this thread. It's a rugby comp free to enter, get ya teams in.

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby 1st round of Six nation tournement start tomorrow with a big clash between Ireland & France. Ireland not win vs France since 2003 and a win at home 15-12.Since this match Ireland loosing all their game vs XV de France but offer all the time a great show with generally an open game with high scoring : 2008 France won 26-21 at Stade de France, Paris 2007 France won 25-3 at Stade de France, Paris (RWC) 2007 France won 20-17 at Croke Park, Dublin 2006 France won 43-31 at Stade de France, Paris 2005 France won 26-19 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin 2004 France won 35-17 at Stade de France, Paris 2003 France won 43-21 at Colonial Stadium, Melbourne Ireland not forget 2 year ago their loose for their first match in their new arena Crock Park and for the second venue of France in this stadium will try to erase this defait and the 6 year of invisibility. Concerning team :French coach choose to start with lot of Toulouse player 6/15 exactly but 4/5 in back line .this choice proove that Livermont want to product an open rugby and according to their interview if their team want to win this match must score some tries.I'm totally agree with him because France don't have a reel kicker in their team.Beauxis will shoot pen in this match but i'm not sure will be the best choice at this post.During H cup and specially last match vs Ulster miss lot of pen and drop goal .Still a young player and pressure for this away match could be too much for him.Concerning 1st & 2nd ligne ,Coach chosse strong player :Chabal Nallet Dusautoir are very good impact player able to progress in defencive irish line at each attack .French scrum will have lot of work and not forget penality try conceded on scrum last year For Irish starting 15, i see lot of experimented player with lot of cap and could be the key of this match with specially the O' army :).O'driscoll O'Callagan O'gara O'Connel o'Leary.All of them are great player with lot of cap and advantage vs France got a really good kicker with O'Gara here and could make the difference.Concerning rest of team lot of them come from Munster team and specially their scrum line with 6/8. Both team practice an open rugby but with different style and french player with good weather condition is able to produce a great counter rugby Other intresting & safest pick Over 37.5 @ 1.90 ladbrokes Drop Goal score @ 2.75 sportingbet.With drop kicker like O'Gara & Beauxis i will not be suprise to see some drop goal shoot. Pick : Total point 44 or more Odds : 3.20 Stake : 6 / 10 Bookmaker : >Paddy Power

[NIGEL2611]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Ireland v France This is the game of the weekend for me, this should be a real dogfight! I think France could really show some improvement in this game, I am really waiting to see the new French front row in action and I think you could see the beginning of something good for the French. Of course the Irish are not without their own stars and I expect to see a good show from Kearney. As Marseille has shown us the French have a great record against the Irish but records are there to be broken! Ireland Exact Winning Margin 3 points 19/1 P.Power (if your heart can take it!) France winning margin 1-5 points 9/2 P.Power France winning margin 6-10 points 6/1 P.Power

[davidcampbell]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby only really bet on rugby for the 6nations or world cup so far from an expert but Leigh Halfpenny looks a decent shout to be top tryscorer in my humble opinion:unsure

[SteveO]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby

1st round of Six nation tournement start tomorrow with a big clash between Ireland & France. Ireland not win vs France since 2003 and a win at home 15-12.Since this match Ireland loosing all their game vs XV de France but offer all the time a great show with generally an open game with high scoring : 2008 France won 26-21 at Stade de France, Paris 2007 France won 25-3 at Stade de France, Paris (RWC) 2007 France won 20-17 at Croke Park, Dublin 2006 France won 43-31 at Stade de France, Paris 2005 France won 26-19 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin 2004 France won 35-17 at Stade de France, Paris 2003 France won 43-21 at Colonial Stadium, Melbourne Ireland not forget 2 year ago their loose for their first match in their new arena Crock Park and for the second venue of France in this stadium will try to erase this defait and the 6 year of invisibility. Concerning team :French coach choose to start with lot of Toulouse player 6/15 exactly but 4/5 in back line .this choice proove that Livermont want to product an open rugby and according to their interview if their team want to win this match must score some tries.I'm totally agree with him because France don't have a reel kicker in their team.Beauxis will shoot pen in this match but i'm not sure will be the best choice at this post.During H cup and specially last match vs Ulster miss lot of pen and drop goal .Still a young player and pressure for this away match could be too much for him.Concerning 1st & 2nd ligne ,Coach chosse strong player :Chabal Nallet Dusautoir are very good impact player able to progress in defencive irish line at each attack .French scrum will have lot of work and not forget penality try conceded on scrum last year For Irish starting 15, i see lot of experimented player with lot of cap and could be the key of this match with specially the O' army :).O'driscoll O'Callagan O'gara O'Connel o'Leary.All of them are great player with lot of cap and advantage vs France got a really good kicker with O'Gara here and could make the difference.Concerning rest of team lot of them come from Munster team and specially their scrum line with 6/8. Both team practice an open rugby but with different style and french player with good weather condition is able to produce a great counter rugby Other intresting & safest pick Over 37.5 @ 1.90 ladbrokes Drop Goal score @ 2.75 sportingbet.With drop kicker like O'Gara & Beauxis i will not be suprise to see some drop goal shoot. Pick : Total point 44 or more Odds : 3.20 Stake : 6 / 10 Bookmaker : >Paddy Power

Good shout some nice picks there:clap

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Good stuff, Marseilles. Bloke to keep an eye on today is the Welsh no.8 Andy Powell. Should help Wales to a convincing win. BUT, I'll be hiding behind the sofa if the first Welsh line-out goes pear-shaped. A potential big weakness. 3pts BUY Wales/Scot shirts superiority @ 10 2 pts Powell MoM @ 14-1

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby thx all these good pick make my money back after a disaster Ligue1 night :ok btw SteveO if you got some news about current weather in Murrayfield could intresting me too ;)

[Charlie Wong]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Wales -6 @ 10/11 Think it will be a close game but Wales can cover the 6pts.

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Last match of 1st week 6 nation this afternoon between Scotland and Wales. Wales last year champion will start their 6 nation with a difficult match at Edinburgh.Scotland proove that are able to make big suprise specially in H cup when they win at Toulouse by showing a very open Rugby .Concerning Wales they proove that stay a very strong squad during November test match because is the only team who win vs South Hemispher team . Weather seems sunny for this match and could be a reel advantage for see a lot of point this afternoon and specially for Wales team who got very fast player like Shane williams or Lee Byrne.Scotland got something to proove in this 6 nation .Lot of thing change in their Rugby and must take some risk if want to have a chance to win this match .Their young number 10 Phil Godman could be not the best choice for this game vs older Stephan Jones . Pick : Over 39 point Odds : 2.00

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby 13-26 FT Scotland dominate last 5 min around Wales try line video referee no try :cry

[SteveO]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby Wales looked awesome the first half and start of the second but looked pretty lack lustre after that. Should easily beat England next week but the true tests will be against Ireland and an ominous looking French side.

[Wumpking]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby

The IRB have now updated their rankings following the weekend's 6 Nation matches:

Position	Team	Points
4	Wales	81.90
6	England	80.98
7	Ireland	79.25
8	France	78.68
9	Scotland	75.89
11	Italy	74.52

Based on the rating points, in the next round of matches France should beat Scotland by 13 points, Wales should beat England by 8 points whilst Italy should lose to Ireland by 4 points. These equate to odds of: France - 1.16 Scotland - 5.0 Draw - 50.0 Wales - 1.33 England - 3.25 Draw - 50.0 Italy - 2.25 Ireland - 1.57 Draw - 50.0 Will look at the odds on offer later to see if any potential value bets available

[marseille]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby

Saturday 14 February 2009	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
France v Scotland (16:00GMT)	1.11	42.00	10.00	102.38 %		Details »
Hide « France v Scotland
Wales v England (17:30GMT)	1.33	38.00	4.50	99.85 %	S4C BBC HD	Details »
Hide « Wales v England
Sunday 15 February 2009	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Italy v Ireland (14:30GMT)	7.00	41.00	1.17	102.19 %	BBC TWO	Details »

Saturday 14 February 2009	Home	Away
France v Scotland (16:00GMT)	-15	+15		Details »
Hide « France v Scotland
Wales v England (17:30GMT)	-9	+9	S4C BBC HD	Details »
Hide « Wales v England
Sunday 15 February 2009	Home	Away
Italy v Ireland (14:30GMT)	+13	-13	BBC TWO	Details »
Hide « Italy v Ireland

handicap for France goes to +/- 15 after open before 1st match at +/-12

[NIGEL2611]

Re: 6 Nations Rugby

Based on the rating points, in the next round of matches France should beat Scotland by 13 points, Wales should beat England by 8 points whilst Italy should lose to Ireland by 4 points. These equate to odds of:

This makes for interesting reading especially if the h/cap stays at +13 for Italy. Judging by past results for Ireland they have a bit of a liking for playing in Rome! 24-51 in 2007 17-28 in 2005 13-37 in 2003 22-41 in 2001 The average winning margin is 20 pts with the Italians only managing to get under a 13 point loss once in 2005.