New Year's Resolution Thread

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:35 Royal Ascot: Sweetie Time 1pt win 25/1 Paddy Power Sweetie Time lines up here without a run this season. However her trainer Michael Bell knows what it takes to win this Listed handicap, having won the race twice previously in the past six years. Sweetie Time could well benefit from the stiff mile run at a good pace. In each of her last two races over shorter, Sweetie Time has been reported as running on, and this trip on better ground could see some improvement. Its a slight concern that Jamie Spencer opts for Trafic Sister rather than keeping the ride on Sweetie Time however no problem with Hayley and at the price Sweetie Time looks worth a try.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Royal Ascot: Opinion Poll 1pt e/w 22/1 Both Bet365 Opinion Poll would appear to be the Godolphin second string, but there is every chance that he could pull off a surprise here over the marathon trip. He won a Group 2 for Michael Jarvis when he took the Lonsdale Cup at York over two miles. He has since joined Mahmood Al Zarooni and in all his runs for him at Meydan, Opinion Poll was noted as, running on or staying on well. This extra half mile might just do the trick, and Opinion Poll could be staying on while others are treading water. Mahmood Al Zarooni has done well already for Godolphin and he could improve that record even futher here. Mickael Barzalona has an excellent strike rate for the trainer, and Opinion Poll won't lack for assistance from the saddle.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Royal Ascot: Creme Anglaise 1pt win 18/1 Victor Chandler & Make My Heart Sing 1pt win 22/1 Stan James Banimpire sets a solid standard, yet there is a possibility she could just be vulnerable from a less exposed rival, especially coming just four days after her last run. Creme Anglaise has winning course form and stepping up here by two furlongs this daughter of Motivator could well improve for the extra distance. The basic form is nothing special, however there is plenty of potential. Make My Heart Sing is another that might just be coming to herself after a modest two year old career. By Sadlers Wells she too should be at home over this mile and a half and it would not be the first time that one of Aidan O'Brien's second strings has out run their price.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 Royal Ascot: Dream Achieved 1pt win 16/1 Victor Chandler A wide open handicap however Dream Achieved has several things going for him that put him in with a decent chance here. He is very lightly raced and with an excellent pedigree there can be more to come from this all weather maiden winner. Looking back to the maiden that Dream Acheived ran in at Newmarket the time before last, the form of that looks very strong. Nearly all the runners have performed well since, even the fifth Midsummer Sun has gone in. Dream Acheived's high draw also looks key and he could go well up the stands rail. Barry Hills certainly knows how to train big handicap winners.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Royal Ascot: Glencadam Gold 1pt win 43/1 & 1pt place 8/1 Betfair Its not often a Sir Henry Cecil horse goes off at this sort of price. This looks a pretty open race and it might be worth chancing Glencadam Gold who is progressing with racing. His last time out win over Hawaafez was quite useful handicap form, and there was no doubt this was the selection's best effort and it came when he ran over a mile and a half for the first time. The uphill finish may have brought Glencadam Gold's stamina in to play at Newmarket and this stiffish track should suit too. His sire Refuse To Bend won the Eclipse on good to soft, so its likely the underfoot conditions will not hinder Ian Mongan's mount. Sir Henry is a master at bringing horses along gently, and while Glencadam Gold will need more here, he might just be capable of it.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Royal Ascot: Immortal Verse 1pt win 11/1 Boylesports & Clinical 1pt win 20/1 Totesport Immortal Verse has given problems at the start in the past but last time out showed what she could do by quickening up nicely to win a Group Two at Chantilly on the soft. With more rain forecast the ability to handle a softer surface will be paramount. Immortal Verse is very much a filly in form and she looks likely to go well. Sir Mark Prescott is not known for tilting at windmills, so Clinical is worth a second glance here, particularly as she is by Motivator who went well on a softer surface and his progeny tend to progress well from two to three. Not all Clinical's rivals are guaranteed to handle this surface. Clinical has only run three times and after winning her maiden she has then run twice in Group races, so she is presumably highly thought of.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:00 Royal Ascot: Regent Street 1pt win 3/1 Bet365 Regent Street looks to follow in his stable mate Mikhail Glinka's hoof prints here. Regent Street's form had a boost with Banimpire winning on Thursday. Regent Street ran her close at Leopardstown in April with Recital back in third. Regent Street is likely to stay this two mile trip as he is by Galileo and Sadlers Wells and has Urban Sea in his pedigree who won the Arc on very testing going. Ryan Moore takes the ride and Aidan O'Brien is going well and is having a good meeting.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: Self Centred 1pt e/w 28/1 Bet 365 Quite a difficult race to predict with the added complication of the soft going. However, Self Centred looks overpriced. She should handle the ground, her sire Medicean won on a softer surface and the seven furlongs should be within her compass (just). Difficult to know what she acheived on her debut other than to say there was plenty of promise. Barry Hills and son Michael combine here.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Royal Ascot: Definightly 1pt win 16/1 Paddy Power The ability to handle the going will be key today and Definightly does go well on the soft. Last year he really took off and the combination of blinkers and a soft surface saw him win a Group 3 at Maisons-laffitte comfortably with Dalghar who opposes again today well beaten in third. It will be a big ask to win this first time out, however Definightly does go well fresh as he proved when he won on debut last season. There is just a possibility that he has been kept with this race as the plan. Definightly has also drawn stall 17 and it will certainly help to be against a rail.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 Royal Ascot: Fathsta 1pt win 28/1 Stan James & Deacon Blues 1pt win 8/1 William Hill Again, the draw and the going look to be the two key factors here. To be drawn within about five of one of the rails is usually a help and Fathsta is drawn five today. He also has some excellent form on a soft surface, looking back his win at York in October is very good form when off a four pound lower mark he forged clear of the opposition to win going away. With all the races at Royal Ascot it also pays to be able to stay a little further than the actual race distance and Fathsta gets seven furlongs too. The stable is in decent form and Jimmy fortune does not ride for David Simcock that often, but when he does he has a fifity percent strike rate. Deacon Blues keeps going up the handicap for not winning and there is always a hard luck story. However, at some point the cards must fall right and with a fast run race and a decent pace this could be the day.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:35 Royal Ascot: Dayia 1pt win 9/1 William Hill Dayia won a heavy ground Listed race in France to round off her season last year. By the time it gets to the last race the going could be getting towards heavy so the ability to act on the going will be paramount. Its also interesting that Olivier Peslier has been booked for the ride again. There will be a question mark over several in the field whether they can stay this far, however, there is plenty of hope that Dayia will based on her pedigree. That looks pretty stout, with realtives that include middle distance horses and Yorkshire Oaks winner Roseate Tern.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Newcastle: High Office 1pt win 16/1 Coral High Office represents the top team of Paul Hanagan and Richard Fahey. And he looks to have a fair bit going for him here apart from the draw. Last time out he put up a very encouraging display at Ayr when chasing home Bondage on the soft at Ayr. The form of that race looks pretty decent with the Gordon Elliott winner following up a previous win in Ireland. Bondage and High Office were well clear of the third of Line of Duty who had also won last time out. High Office's form looks to be getting better the further he goes and that is understandable as he is from a line that includes dual Derby winner High Chaparral and Sadlers Wells. Although you can not be certian about a horse staying a trip until they actually run over it, High Office should stay this two miles. Should handle the softer going. Seems to have been backed as was typing up my post. Was 18/1 with Skybet still 16/1 with Coral so will post as that .....

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Ah....that explains the price disappearing before my eyes..... put up by Hugh Taylor.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:25 Newcastle: Solemn 1pt win 25/1 Bet365 Solemn looks a big price for an inform sprinter that handles the soft going. This is a higher class of race than he has been contesting, however Milton Bradley's charge looks likely to give a good account and when the going is on the soft side it often pays to race prominently as its hard to make up ground with conditions as they are today.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:15 Newmarket: Hidden Passion 1pt win 12/1 Sportingbet Now that My Propeller has come out of this race it has quite an open look, which is reflected in the betting with the bookies going 9/2 the field. Hidden Passion is making up for lost time having been pulled up on her first start, however she ran pretty well next time at Haydock and that form on good to soft behind Viola D'amour looks respectable. She needs to step up a fair bit, but that's possible with Brian Meehan as her trainer, and a decent run could be on the cards.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Newmarket: Alwaary 1pt win 25/1 Bet365 There are question marks over several runners here, and probably none bigger than the one over Alwaary. Presumably he must have been showing something to be kept in training by such powerful connections. Even when he was brought back last year, his final start was in the Group One Champion Stakes, surely he could have ben found a small conditions race. John Gosden is perfectly capable of bringing a horse back to win off a long layoff, Investissement who runs in the Plate today, springs to mind. At his best Alwaary ran a fair race in the King George. It would be some training performance to get him back, however, given some of the others are perhaps not rock solid, at 25/1 Alwaary is just about worth chancing.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Newcastle: Roker Park 1pt win 7/1 & Edinburgh Knight 1pt win 14/1 Both Bet365 Roker Park looked back in the groove last time out and won this race two years ago under similar conditions off a five pound higher mark. David O'Meara has done well with horses he aquires from other trainers, revitalising their careers, Blue Bajan springs to mind. The yard's runners have been going pretty well in the last couple of weeks. Edinburgh Knight is a little more speculative as he is yet to encounter a softer surface, however his form (last run aside) has been progressive and there is good reason to think he will go on this surface, being by Selkirk, and continue on an upward curve.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Posting up the figures for the month early as off on holiday tomorrow... Even so, hardly want this month to end as it started off with Pour Moi and rounded off with Edinburgh Knight. Figures for the period 1st January to 30th June 2011 Points: Staked 197 Returned 338.52 Profit 141.52 ROI 71.84% Bets: Struck 154 Profitable 28 Strike rate 18.18%

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Newmarket: Charleston Lady 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet365 Charleston Lady could well do better than her stablemate here. With only three runs to her name there is scope for plenty of improvement and for this step up in distance too. On what she has acheived already Charleston Lady looks quite smart and her form behind Dorcas Lane looks solid in light of that one's subsequent runs at Royal Ascot and Haydock. The ground will not be a problem, in fact her chances may increase if the going becomes softer, as her sire Hurricane Run went best on on easier surface. Ralph Beckett is in good form and has a decent record at the track.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:55 Newbury: Matula 1pt win 20/1 Stan James Matula was a smooth winner of her maiden first time out last year and presumably was very well thought of by connections as she has run in Listed company ever since. In fairness she has not cut a lot of ice in those, but off 86 here and dropped back to a mile Matula could be worth a small interest at the price, particularly if the first time cheek pieces have a positive effect.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 The Curragh: Banimpire 1pt win 9/1 Boylesports Banimpire has been a model of consistency all season, and her only blemish was when dropping back to a mile for the Irish 1000 Guineas. She looks over priced here with a question mark over the slowly run English Oaks form. The principles from Epson all line up and Dancing Rain could confirm the form over World of Wonders, and Blue Bunting may well go better on this course, however at the odds Banimpire looks the bet. She showed fine qualities to beat Field of Miracles at Royal Ascot with the third well adrift, and that came just a few days after her win at Cork. By Holy Roman Emperor any softening of the ground will not be a problem and Banimpire looks set to run well.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 4:30 Ascot: Nathaniel 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 Nathaniel could well be overpriced. He lines up here having been suplemented for £75,000, so one thing for certain he is 100% straight for this. In recent years, three year olds have not had a good record in this race, however Nathaniel's form looks rock solid, and the weight for age allowance puts him very close to top rating. Last time out Nathaniel put up a fine performance over course and distance at the Royal meeting and its possible this race could pan out the same way. Debussy could take the field along for the first mile or so, and then William Buick could kick on to bring Nathaniel's stamina in to play, and he could take some catching. In his previous race Nathaniel ran the subsequent Irish Derby winner and Epson second Treasure Beach to a neck in a rather slowly run affair that may not have suited him. And going right back to Nathaniel's first run he was just half a length behind Frankel, while probably unwise to read too much in to that, it was still a good run. The other big three will all have their supporters and with good reason, yet can't help but think the best value lies with Nathaniel.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Ascot: Angels Will Fall 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 There is not much evidence to go on, but Angels Will Fall is worth close inspection after her impressive win at Windsor, even allowing for meeting some trouble in running. Its interesting that Barry Hills steps her up to Group company rather than finding perhaps a conditions or Listed race. He is not a man to overface his horses. There could be a fair bit of potential to be unleashed, and there will need to be with both Russelliana and Regal Realm having better form in the book, however at the prices Angels Will Fall looks worth an interest.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Ascot: Stage Attraction 1pt win 8/1 Victor Chandler Stage Attraction lines up here on a hat trick and after a fine win at Sandown last time out, that could be on the cards. The form oif that race looks solid, as the second Galiando won previously, the third Dukes Art was a runner up, and the fifth Moheebb also won comfortably at Carlisle. This race is a step up in class for Stage Attraction, however after a smooth performance last time he could well be up to it.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Newmarket: Wake Up Call 1pt win 10/1 Boylesports & Golden Delicious 1pt win 13/2 William Hill It may be worth taking on the favourite here and a couple look to have decent chances. Wake Up Call warmed up nicely for this with a pipeopener last month. She has a fine record at Yarmouth, however Wake Up Call only went down by under a length on the Rowley Mile last year in a Listed race which has a very similar configuration to today's neighbouring July course. Trainer Chris Wall has a twenty five per cent strike rate with his older horses here, and he teams up with George Baker who rides this course well too. Golden Delicious creeps in at the bottom of the weights, she put up an excellent perfomance to come from a difficult position to win at Ascot earlier in the month. There were several with decent form to their name in behind her and with Hughie Morrison having his string in good nick, she looks likely to run well. And she will certainly not lack assistance from the saddle with the impressive Kieran O'Neill keeping the ride. He has been in cracking form over the past couple of weeks.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:20 Newmarket: Sadafiya 1pt win 25/1 & Invincible Ridge 1pt win 16/1 both Bet365 With a big field again it seems reasonable to go with a couple. Sadafiya is lightly raced, even more so on turf. However, that means the handicapper has less to go on. Her last run in a Listed race at Warwick does not give much hope, but last back end she shaped pretty well behind Style and Panache at Newbury, just getting the handg of things late on over five furlongs. At six here and a little ease in the ground she could be a different proposition. Also go to see that Sadafiya's sire, Oasis Dream won the July Cup here, maybe his daughter will have a similar liking for the track. Invincible Ridge could be coming to hand, his run at York over a furlong further was very promising, running well for a long way. Previously highly thought of by the Hannon yard, he could be competitive with Kieran O'Neill taking off a handy five pounds. That effectively puts him off 89 here and Invincible Ridge won well at Newbury in September last year off 85. Both have a squeek in a big field.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Goodwood: Slumber 1pt win 5/1 William Hill While hoping for a good run from my ante post Leger hope Fiorente, at the prices today Slumber looks the value call. He has form behind both Pisco Sour at Royal Ascot and Nathaniel & Treasure Beach at Chester. Looking back at those two races, Slumber was in fairness always held hehind the future Irish Derby winner and subsequent King George victor, but there is no disgrace in that. At Royal Ascot Slumber was third to Pisco Sour, however, he may have got closer with a clear run and like his run at Chester this represents top class Group form. To add weight to Slumber's case, Barry Hills has also hit a very hot patch over the past few days.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Goodwood: Spirit of Adjisa 1pt win 5/1 Bet365 This is the sort of race that hurdlers do well in, and Spirit of Adjisa who has been on a sharp upward curve with Tim Vaughan over the smaller obstacles looks dangerous if he can find at least some of that improvement back on the flat. Spirit of Adjisa has a fine record over timber, winning two novice hurdles last year, before picking up a Grade One at Punchestown in May. There is no telling whether Spirit of Adjisa can translate his new found form to the level, however its worth chancing at the price that he can, and Tim Vaughan who has been in cracking form recently has presumably not booked Ryan Moore lightly.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Goodwood: Red Seventy 1pt win 9/1 William Hill Richard Hannon looks to be going all out to win this, and its very interesting that although he tries again with Chandlery against Red Duke, he also has three other runners in the line up, which would indicate there is not much between them. Red Seventy was quite impressive when winning at Ascot in a novice event from Sixx. He had to wait for a gap to appear yet quickened nicely when an opportunity arose. That still leaves him a fair bit to find, however Red Seventy with Pat Dobbs again in the saddle, has only raced twice and there could be more to come from this unbeaten colt.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Goodwood: Rajsaman 1pt win 33/1 Boylesports With a just a four runner field tactics will play a huge part, and after Saturday when a big race did not not start as widely anticipated, this could have the makings of a shock. In many ways that would not be good for racing, yet can't help but think that Rajsaman looks very big at 33/1, He does possess a sharp turn of foot and his third to Goldikova and defeat of Byword reads pretty well. Its a fair way short of the big two, but if they concentrate too much on each other or get the fractions wrong, then Rajsaman could use his burst of speed to nip in. Freddie Head is in fine form, three from eight in the last fortnight and the blinkers are back on today, which he wore when probably producing his best form against Byword.