New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Newbury: Signor Verdi 1pt win 16/1 Betfred Signor Verdi looks to have a fair bit going for him. He is drawn 15 and that's generally been the right sort of place to be. Brian Meehan's horses are running pretty well without winning and perhaps crucially Signor Verdi goes very well fresh. He won first time out last year, the mile looks ideal, and this lightly raced four year old is open to plenty of improvement. Signor Verdi won well at Thirsk in July, and although he only ran fifth at Newmarket last back end, the going may have been against him and he didn't have much luck in running. Signor Verdi appears to have a sporting chance in an open race.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Ayr: Neptune Equester 1pt e/w 20/1 William Hill Neptune Equester like many here is out of the handicap, yet with Paul Gallagher taking off a handy five, he could be in the shake up. He has been running well in Grade Two hurdles, so has a touch of class about him. However, the key piece of form could be October last year when he won a Listed handicap at Wetherby staying on strongly to beat Qulinton and Mister McGoldrick. After that race his trainer is reported as saying he thought Neptune Equester might be an Eider type. So there is a good chance that Neptune Equester will enjoy this step up in trip. The going won't be a problem as he is three from five on this surface, and there is often a turn up in this race with horses wrong at the weights running well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:15 Stratford: Black tor Figarro 1pt win 7/1 Paddy Power This looks a fairly modest race and although Black Tor Figarro is pretty modest too, he may have a chance of getting off the mark at the first time of asking for Mrs Lawney Hill. She is a dab hand at improving horses she aquires and Black Tor Figarro was running over two miles on the flat. so if she can get him jumping he could go close here. David Bass takes off a handy three pounds.

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread great shout and great price Steve:clap

[Spooner]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Yeah good call Steve. :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers, Mark & Spooner :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2000 Guineas: Casamento 1pt e/w 20/1 Victor Chandler There looked nothing wrong with Frankel's reappearence at Newbury, and that should put him spot on. However at 1/2 its worth taking a chance with a double figure shot each way. Part of the problem is who will run against the red hot favourite. If Casamento takes his chance he looks overpriced to make the frame. Last year Casamento was trained by Mick Halford and has now switched to Godolphin, and he is handled by Mahmood Al Zarooni rather than Saeed Bin Suroor. Mahmood Al Zarooni is off to a flying start knocking in the winners. Looking through Casamento's form he got off the mark at the first time of asking at Tipperary before going down by a head to Guineas second favourite Pathfork at the Curragh. To step up from a maiden to run so well in a Group One was a fine effort. Casamento then added to his tally with a win at the Curragh and rounded off his season with the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. And the form of that race is already looking solid. Casamento looks an interesting each way shot.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Sandown: Church Island 1pt win 20/1 William Hill & Meanus Dandy 1pt win 11/1 Stan James This looks to be the plan all season for Church Island. Since winning last year he has only raced over hurdles once and a had a spin on the flat. That said, his form coming in to the race last year was nothing special and he managed to lead most of the way and stay on strongly when challenged up the hill by Hoo La Baloo. There will be other front runners today and under top weight it will be tough to make all, yet he does have the valuable course form and the proven stamina. The light campaign means he is a lot fresher than some in the line up. Meanus Dandy looks to have the profile of a horse that runs far better going right handed. He has won here and at Wincanton earlier in the season where he took the Badger Ales Trophy. That race was over an extended 3 miles 1 furlong, and he was recorded as staying on stoutly by the Racing Post. Given his proven liking for the course, there is every reason to hope he will be staying on up the hill. Seems a little overpriced for the combination of Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:55 Fairyhouse Monday (Irish Grand National): Caim Hill 1pt e/w 33/1 William Hill It might be that Caim Hill's handicap mark has been protected for this race. In April 2010 he won a Grade 2 novice chase having previously won at Down Royal. Both those races were over three miles and he had no trouble staying there, so at the price its worth chancing he will see out the extra five furlongs. Since those wins Caim Hill has only seen the larger obstacles once. His three runs in March and April have been over hurdles. Caim Hill is handled by Dunguib's trainer Phillip Fenton and he puts the first time blinkers on here. Caim Hill also goes well right handed. Maybe its unwise to read too much in to the hurdle runs and the blinkers, however with several of the recent winners going off at a big price, Caim Hill could outrun his odds even allowing for his lack of experience in this sort of race.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Haydock: Five Dream 1pt win 9/1 William Hill Can't help but think that Paul Nicholls will try and win his own race. With such a big string to call on Five Dream may not be the most obvious candidate, however, he ran his best race for a while at Ludlow last time out. And looking back through Five Dream's form he will benefit of a turn around of over a stone with Matuhi on their running at Ascot in November. Paul Nicholls does well with the chasers he sends to Haydock and Daryl Jacob has a decent record when riding for the yard.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Haydock: Dominican Monk 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Dominican Monk is twelve now however he is pretty lightly raced and does go well fresh. He may just be worth chancing at a double figures price with his yard in such good form. David Arbuthnot is red hot at the moment and with Dominican Monk being a course winner off two pounds higher and having a liking for good ground he may surprise some of his younger rivals. To add weight to the case Daryl Jacob has a fine strike rate, 30%, when he rides for the stable.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas): Moonlight Cloud 2pts win 5/1 Bet365 With White Moonstone unfortunately missing out on the 1,000 Guineas, it may be the time to take a price about Moonlight Cloud. She has proved her fitness with an impressive win in the Prix Imprudence a race that has been an excellent stepping stone. French trainers have a good recent record in the 1,000 Guineas and there is a strong chance Freddy Head can keep this race in the family. He also has his string in fine form. Looking back through Moonlight Cloud's previous runs, she opened her account at the first time of asking at Deauville, won at Longchamp, and her only defeat to date was behind Wootton Bassett when taking on the colts in ground described as very soft. Moonlight Cloud seemed to enjoy the good surface at Maisons-laffitte and was never threatened.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Newmarket: Green Destiny 1pt win 6/1 Boylesports Green Destiny has only seen the course three times yet the form of those races has worked out really well with numerous subsequent winners. He got off the mark at Haydock over a mile and then followed up at Leicester off 82. That was on heavy going and with a better surface today and a step up in distance there is a good chance there is further improvement to come off only a five pound higher mark. William Haggas is a master at getting his horses ready for big handicaps and has a decent record at HQ. Michael Hills also has a good record when riding for the yard.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Goodwood: Investissement 1pt win 20/1 Betfair Its eye catching that John Gosden, who has such a powerful string, should take on a horse that has not run on the flat for 555 days and over a year over jumps. Presumably Investissement has been showing something on the gallops and its worth taking a chance that he retains most of his old ability. Some of his form with Andre Fabre would give him a decent chance. Likely to stay this trip. John Gosden has knocked in six winners over the past two weeks and his horses are generally in good form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Green Destiny and Investissement rounded off the month nicely..... Figures for the 1st January to the 30th April 2011 Points: Staked 119.00 Returned 203.75 Profit 84.75 ROI 71.22% Bets: Struck 89 Profitable 17 Strike rate 19.10% Will include points already staked on 1000 Guineas in May's figures

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Great day mate.:notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Mark :ok 2:20 Salisbury: Fred Willetts 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Fred Willetts has been kept on the go through the all weather season, so there are no secrets about his form, however that does mean that he is fully race fit and only went down by a length to Belgian Bill at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago. Belgian Bill had previously run in a Group 3 following a close second on the July course at Newmarket in a decent nursery. So Fred Willetts's form looks quite solid. The visor is applied again today, and Fred Willetts has run his best races with the headgear on, running up a hat trick at Southwell and Kempton. That said Fred Willetts seems equally at home on turf. David Evans is in reasonable form and Pat Cosgrove takes over in the saddle.

[Quackers]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Nice winners yesterday! Green Destiny looked very good

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Quackers :ok 2:55 Chester Wednesday: Admiral Barry 1pt win 12/1 Paddy Power & Blue Bajan 1pt win 25/1 Victor Chandler Admiral Barry was well fancied for the Cesarewitch last year, however that did not work out. He looks worth giving another chance to, especialy as Johnny Murtagh takes over in the sadlle. Previously Admiral Barry had run some decent races in Ireland most noteably when picking up staying handicaps at The Curragh and Galway. He has not raced over hurdles this winter yet he goes pretty well fresh, so this could have been the plan since last October. Trainer Eoin Griffin has his smallish string in good order and when he books a big name jockey in Ireland it looks to be Johnny Murtagh. Blue Bajan could spring a surprise at a big price after being off for over a year. That's not necessarily a reason to write a horse off these days. His last run on the flat was a fourth in the Jockey Club Cup a Group 3 at Newmarket. Going in to that race he was rated 111. He is eleven pounds lower today and has won a handicap off 100 in the past. Blue Bajan has since joined David O'Meara and he has a good record with horses transferred to him. The going will not be a problem, Blue Bajan should stay the trip, and he has some decent course form. The question is whether Blue Bajan retains his ability, and on balance he could be worth chancing at the odds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Chester: Critical Moment 1pt win 12/1 Stan James If Await The Dream is ready to go, this could be a one horse race. However, with bigger targets later in the season he may just be vulnerable. Critical Moment looks overpriced and should out-run his odds. He shaped pretty well first time out at Ascot and was noted staying on again with a second wind. That pipe opener and step up in trip should be in his favour. Barry Hills has a good record here and at this meeting and if son Michael gets Critical Moment out in front and kicks off the turn he may take some catching. One or two question marks over some of the others in the line up, so Critical Moment is not a forlorn hope.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:10 Lingfield: Perfect Tribute 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Flambeau won well last time out, however there could be a little over reaction to that win in the market and she looks short enough at around 5/4. Perfect Tribute ran far too freely in the Fred Darling at Newbury however she ran pretty well to win at Ascot in a Listed race last month. Perfect Tribute should improve further over this extra furlong if she settles. As a two year old Perfect Tribute ran a couple of decent races at Royal Ascot and York. She will handle this going and looks a little overpriced even taking on her elders.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Ascot: Excellent Guest 1pt win 18/1 William Hill, Gouray Girl 1pt win 33/1 Bet365 & Bay Knight 1pt win 40/1 Betfred Its hard to say where the draw bias might be so three runners across the track will hopefully cover all the bases. Excellent Guest goes well here, and is a seven furlong specialist. He has won his last two races and looks to be on an upward curve. Simon Pearce was in the saddle at Ascot in September when Excellent Guest won with perhaps a little more in hand than appeared. Philip Robinson did the steering at Yarmouth and to win first time out was a decent effort. Usually races quite handily which should see him avoid any trouble in running. Gouray Girl made her seasonal debut in the same race as Excellent Guest and only ran down the field. She is lightly raced and met some trouble in running on her only previous outing here. Gouray Girl got off the mark in decent style at Newbury last backend and her profile has the look of a potential improver. Bay Knight looks a big price for a horse that has proven big handicap form, often vital in races such as this. Moves up and down in trip which is a slight concern yet his trainer who makes few trips over the Irish Sea must consider this worth a shot.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Haydock: Remember Now 1pt win 5/1 Bet365 Remember Now has already been backed but there is a chance he could go off shorter than the price available now. Nicky Henderson has done well in this race and with Remember Now he has a good chance of improving on that record. Remember Now lines up here on a hat trick and although up ten pounds for his last win meets Tatispout on better terms than at Stratford. Looks to have improved for the better ground the last twice and while this will be a tough ask in this big field, he looks on an upward curve.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Ascot: Oceanway 1pt win 10/1 & Avonrose 1pt win 33/1 Both Bet365 Oceanway makes her turf debut here after running with promise on the all weather. She was perhaps a little disappointing last time out at Lingfield however that was a Listed race and racing off a mark of 87 today there is plenty of scope for improvement. Mark Johnson's horses are in pretty good form and top claimer Louis-Philippe Beuzelin takes off a handy three pounds. Avonrose is fit from the all weather where she has been performing with credit. This former Mark Johnston inmate has a win to her name here and with Neil Farley taking off five pounds she is only a couple higher than her victory here. This is a better race, yet with fitness and a liking for the track on her side she may go well at big price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread The Derby: Pour Moi 1pt win 20/1 William Hill It might be a strategy to have a point on Pour Moi, come June that could be a big price. He may not even run, however it would seem highly likely that his owners would surely come to Epsom if Pour Moi is fit and well. At the moment the two market leaders have lots of potential and if either World Domination or Carlton House wins the Dante well next week they will go off favourite for the Derby. At the time of writing though, Pour Moi is a Group 2 winner and is four times the price. Add in Andre Fabre, who is about as good as it gets as a trainer, and Pour Moi looks worth an interest.

[Quackers]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

2:10 Lingfield: Perfect Tribute 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Flambeau won well last time out, however there could be a little over reaction to that win in the market and she looks short enough at around 5/4. Perfect Tribute ran far too freely in the Fred Darling at Newbury however she ran pretty well to win at Ascot in a Listed race last month. Perfect Tribute should improve further over this extra furlong if she settles. As a two year old Perfect Tribute ran a couple of decent races at Royal Ascot and York. She will handle this going and looks a little overpriced even taking on her elders.

Nice winner. One to follow me thinks

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Quackers :ok I think you are right....she came through nicely

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread The Derby: Pour Moi 1pt e/w 16/1 Totesport My "startegy" seems rather flawed the day after. Pour Moi has shortened up across the board and the best price now is 16/1. Having seen an opportunity at a decent price, should have bet it and "died with my boots on". Topping up today with a point each way. Still think that's a decent price. Pour Moi may not run, he may not handle the track if he does, or he may simply be not good enough. Yet the form in the book, his trainer, his breeding, and even his connections lead me to think his chance has been under estimated.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:55 Fontwell: Font 1pt win 11/1 Bet365 With the focus on York it may pay to have a small interest on the summer jumping. Lawney Hill has a fine record of improving horses she inherits from other trainers. She probably has all on to bring Font back to his best. On the plus side Font is well handicapped on his old hurdle form at more than a stone lower than his peak. On the other hand Font may be a horse on the slide, however at a double figure price it may be worth taking the chance Mrs Hill can revive him.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:30 York: Racy 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Racy has joined Kevin Ryan after being with Sir Michael Stoute. At only four there could be more scope for improvement and a switch of stables could help. He has also been gelded. Racy put up some useful efforts last season without setting the world alight, however if he can build on his second at Leicester behind Monsieur Joe who had a fine season in 2011 and he was not beaten far on his first outing at Newmarket, which also gives hope that Racy comes to hand quickly. Silvestre De Sousa has been amongst the winners and rides sprinters very well and Kevin Ryan is in a good vein of form with a 24% strike rate over the past two weeks.