New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread The long downward slide since the dizzy heights of midsummer continues with a loss of 38.67 on the month and a ROI of -85.93%. Far too many long shots, a few may have run better than their odds, but they never looked like troubling the judge.....!!! Points: Staked 796 Returned 898.22 Profit 102.82 ROI 12.92% Bets: Struck 419 Profitable 75 Strike rate 17.90% Hoping for an upturn with the better jumpers coming out, and maybe some action on the All Weather....

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Doncaster: Tepmokea 1pt win 14/1 Bet365, Cracking Lass 1pt win 25/1 Paddy Power, & Lethal Gaze 1pt win 22/1 Totesport Tepmokea could crown a great season for Paul Hanagan in the last big handicap. Tepmokea has a winning attitude and there could still be more to come. He is up five pounds for his win at York last time, yet there may be a little more improvement in the locker. Richard Fahey also saddles Cracking Lass and she is overlooked by Paul Hanagan, however she is lightly raced and won well last time at Leicester and with this likely to be a strongly run race her stamina could come in to play when others have had enough. Lethal Gaze has form on the prevailing going, will stay the trip and is in good form. Brian Ellison also has a good record in the race and Lethal Gaze looks overpriced.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:20 Wincanton: I'moncloudnine 2pts win 11/1 William Hill I'moncloudnine put up a fine effort first time out at Bangor. He is off a career high mark today, but there is a suspicion he goes best right handed. I'moncloudnine has won at the course too. Neil Mulholland's string are running to form and Dougie Costello has a good record when riding the stables chasers. Going and distance should be no problem, and I'moncloudnine could improve again and go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 10:45 Churchill Downs: Blame 2pts win 11/2 Bet365 It would be great for racing if Zenyatta did win, however she could be up against it on the dirt. Blame on the other hand has won three times from four outings here and is a rock solid older horse with wins in Grade 1 races to his name.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:30 Wolverhampton: Conry 1pt win 11/4 Bet365 & William Morgan 1pt win 22/1 Victor Chandler Two lady jockeys could hold the key to this race. Conry lines up here after putting up a good effort at Catterick last time. He only went down by half a length and appears to be in decent form. His only previous outing here was behind Regeneration a rock solid horse at this level who boasts a four from six record on the all weather. With an ease in the weights a slight drop in grade and Julie Burke's claim Conry should go well. William Morgan by contrast is out of form, however he has an American pedigree and has a victory over Victoire De Lyphar on turf. If he takes to the surface with Laura Barry taking off seven pounds he could surpise.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Wolverhampton: My Name is Bert 1pt win 28/1 Paddy Power Worth a speculative point. Trainer has the odd one pop up here at long odds, and could be more to come with only three runs to date. Several of the other runners have questions to answer too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:25 Cheltenham: Great Endeavour 2pts win 9/2 Bet365 & Sunnyhillboy 1pt win 11/1 Totesport Great Endeavour has rock solid course form which is paramount for Cheltenham. With the race certain to be run at a strong pace, Timmy Murphy will creep Great Endeadvour round producing him late. He handles the prevailing going and while David Pipe has not be knocking in the winners lately, his horses have been running ok and he is sure to have Great Endeavour ready for this, as his father did many times before him. Sunnyhillboy chased home Great Endeavour at the Festival last season, and maybe its dangerous to pick two horses out of one race, but the form looks strong, and Sunnyhillboy has scope for improvment. Proven over the course and another happy on the going, a big run looks on the cards.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Cheltenham: Ogee 2pts win 8/1 Bet365 & Gentle Ranger 1pt win 26/1 Betfair Ogee has only six chase starts to his name and he ran really well here at the Festival to only go down by a length and a half to Chief Dan George. Had Ogee not made a blunder a couple out he might have won. His trainer Renee Robson has only had a few runners in the past two weeks but they have aquitted themselves well. Ogee goes well fresh and he was a very good hurdler and looks as though he could go places as a chaser. If you ignore Gentle Ranger's last outing he would surely be a much shorter price. His win off 130 in April looks good. He has fallen here, however has run really well either side of that. With a tounge tie on today, could see a different horse.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Cheltenham: Cross Kennon 2pts win 8/1 & Pistolet Noir 1pt win 12/1 both Bet365 Cross Kennon ran well at the Festival last March when staying on fourth over three miles. Another furlong and a half and a pipe opener at Aintree three weeks ago should see Cross Kennon run a big race today. Trainer Jennie Candlish could not have a small string in better form which all adds weight to Cross Kennon's case. It might be worth chancing Pistolet Noir. Paul Nicholls steps him up in trip here and the blinkers are on. Pistolet Noir's best runs have come at Cheltenham and Ian Popham takes off a handy five pounds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Cheltenham: Sure Josie Sure 2pts win 9/1 William Hill The question is whether Sure Josie Sure can improve in the way Nearby has. Sure Josie Sure beat Nearby by over two lengths at Perth in April. Nearby went in off 145 last week. With David Pipe as her trainer there is every chance that Sure Josie Sure can step up again. The going should be no problem, she goes well fresh, and with bottom weight and a rating of 127, Sure Josie Sure looks interesting.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:55 Cheltenham: For Non Stop 1pt win 6/1 Bet365 & Grands Crus 1pt win 6/1 William Hill A very competitive handicap; For Non stop was a very comfortable winner at Chepstow last time out and the form looks solid. He beat Pavillon Bleu there and that horse had won his two previous outings and ran seceond the next time out. The third Santera won next time out too. For Non Stop is up in the handicap as a result however there could be more to come. Grands Crus lines up here off 126 and that looks fair after running Sanctuaire pretty close at Taunton, and that horse runs in the Greatwood off 146. Should handle the going and could step up again now in a handicap.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Ascot: Albertas Run 2pts win 5/2 William Hill Albertas Run has to shoulder a ten pound penalty this year, and after a disappointing run first time out he could at first look appear up aginst it. However, Albertas Run goes very well here, he has won two of his three starts and handles the going. This distance is an unknown for Master Minded and he has had a breathing operation. That can often bring about improvement and if it does Albertas Run will have all on, however on balance and at the prices, Albertas Run looks the bet.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Haydock: Nevada Royal 2pts win 18/1 Victor Chandler Nevada Royal catches the eye. Although he has left Paul Nicholls, Nevada Royale could be very dangerous if anywhere near back to his best. At one point in his career he was around a 12/1 shot for the Sun Alliance chase. A mark of 138 could be within his compass. He will handle the going and the trip. Its amazing what trainers can do bringing a horse back from a long layoff these days and Tim Pitt is in decent form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Ascot: Silviniaco Conti 2pts win 4/1 Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti puts his unbeaten record on the line here, and the form of his last win took a timely boost with Frascati Park winning comfortably at Ascot on Friday. Silviniaco Conti accounted for Frascati by over twenty lengths at Chepstow and the second that day Captain Chris ran well at Cheltenham next time, however he was beaten by another Paul Nicholls inmate, so he should have a good line on how good his charge Silviniaco Conti is. He looks the sort to keep improving and could pay to follow. Already a Grade 2 winner, albeit in novice company.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Haydock: Grand Crus 3pts win 7/4 William Hill Grand Crus was impressive at Cheltenham last week and if he is no worse for his exertions looks to have this race at his mercy. Grand Crus pulled clear of For Non Stop at Cheltenham, and that one looks a very progressive sort, so the form looks rock solid.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:45 Aintree: One Cool Cookie 1pt e/w 20/1 Ladbrokes One Cool Cookie is usually a solid jumper, he stays and could follow in the hoof prints of some other Old Vic offspring and go well over the National fences. He does need to put some modest efforts behind him, however its likely that Charlie Swan will have him primed for this. One Cool Cookies prominent racing style could be ideal as it will keep clear of any trouble, and while the soft going is a slight concern, looks worth chancing at a decent price in an open race. Claimer takes off a handy five pounds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Newbury: Burton Point 2pts win 9/1 William Hill & Hey Big Spender 1pt e/w 25/1 Totesport Burton Point seemed to be a touch underestimated all last season yet he kept turning in good performances. He won 5 from 6 races and there could be more to come. The second behind Weapons Amnesty at Cheltenham looks good form and the win from Dance Island saw him sign the season off in good style. Hey Big Spender looked good stepping up in distance at Carlisle, rallying well to beat Big Fell Thanks, who in fairness seemed to idle. Nevertheless, there could be more to come over this trip from a stable that has a buzz about it with Cue Card. Could well run better than price suggests.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 12:25 Newbury: Starluck 2pts win 5/1 Paddy Power & Peddlers Cross 1pt win 3/1 Ladbrokes First time out may be the time to catch Starluck. He won really well on his first run last year on his seasonal debut accounting for Classic Swain, only having to be pushed out. This is a much harder task yet he looks likely to go well. Don't like to desert Peddlers Cross, however slight concern over drop in trip. Massively impressive last year and looks set for another fine campaign.

[Gingertipster]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread We should get the winner of the FF between us Steve. I am on the other two, Nearby ew with a saver on Binocular. Which just leaves the 100/1 shot.:) I may go in for a saver on Hey Big Spender myself. been a fan since he won at Cheltenham. Basically a good jumper who can hit the odd one. Pulled very hard at Carlisle, it's a wonder he stayed the trip. If that has got the freshness out, could run well at a big price. :ok GL from GT

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Haha yes, you are right GT. Thanks. I must admit Peddlers Cross is because I've become a bit attached to him. A colleague at work comes from 'up North' near Donald McCain's stable and he always follows his yard. He pointed out Peddlers Cross early on and we've backed him every time since. Hard to let him pass today. Good luck to you to....you are going well I see. 3:15 Kempton: Aldovrandi 1pt win 16/1 Sportingbet It may be worth a small interest on Aldovrandi. To do so, requires an expectation that the tongue tie and a return to the all weather will bring about a revival. There is a chance they will. Aldovrandi won nicely on his sole all weather start, and was then considered good enough to be worth a shot at the French 2000 Guineas. That was probably flying a little high, however he has put in some decent runs since. Marco Botti has a good record here and if there is a decent pace Aldovrandi may surprise.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread A much better month. A 29.25 point profit from 42 staked for a ROI of 69.64%. Figures for 1st January to 3oth November 2010 Points: Staked 838.00 Returned 970.07 Profit 132.07 ROI 15.76% Bets: Struck 446 Profitable 83 Strike rate 18.61% Hopefully can have a decent run in the final month.....

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:55 Southwell: Ingleby Arch 2pts win 6/1 Coral & Imprimis Tagula 1pt win 7/1 Ladbrokes Ingleby Arch has an excellent record here (7 from 15) and was second in this race last year off 93. His shrewd trainer is in cracking form and has an outstanding record at Southwell. Ingleby Arch has been lightly raced this year, but won well at Ayr last time out at the end of October and he tuned up for this race last year with a win in his previous outing. All looks in place for a big run. Imprimis Tagula also has a fine record at Southwell, 50% in fact. With Natasha Eaton taking a handy seven pounds off, Imprimis Tagula comes right in to the shake up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:25 Southwell: Jawaab 2pts win 7/1 Betfred It usually does not pay to back horses runing on the fibresand until you know whether they act on the surface. At the back of my memory (somewhere!!) seem to remember that offspring of King Best do go well first time and it can pay to follow them. Jawaab has won off a higher mark on turf and with Andrew Heffernan taking off three pounds he looks capable of a good run. To add weight to the case, Jawaab has recently switched to Richard Guest who is in decent form, albeit hitting the crossbar with recent runners. Jawaab went well over hurdles for his new trainer, who has applied the eyeshields today, leaving nothing to chance. There has been a little bit of money about for Jawaab this morning too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Kempton: Rjeef 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Rjeef may be worth chancing based on his form at the start of the year. Presumably had some problems and moved on from Clive Brittan. However, he has joined David Simcock and if he can rediscover his all weather form after a pipeopener at Wolverhampton, he could produce a mini surprise. Drops back to seven here which looks like his ideal trip.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 1:55 Cheltenham: Gauvain 1pt e/w 15/2 Victor Chandler Gauvain was very impressive when winning here at the last meeting when running out a four length winner from Forpaddytheplaster and that form looks rock solid. Master Minded will be be hard to beat and his breathing operation appeared to do the trick at Ascot, although he was always in cruise control in that race. Master Minded may come under pressure up the hill in this race. Gauvain appears to have improved for his switch to Nick Williams, goes well at the track, and its reasonable to hope there may be a little more to come.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:50 Cheltenham: Total Submission 1pt win 20/1 William Hill & Superior Wisdom 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Total Submission creeps in here off bottom weight after running respectably at the last meeting when fourth behind Champion Court. That was a Grade 2 race and while restricted to novices was still a fair effort. He has plenty of scope for improvement and the three extra furlongs should help. Superior Wisdom won well last time out at Exeter and had the third Ernst Blofeld over twenty five lengths back. Will stay this distance well and capable of going close off this mark.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:25 Cheltenham: Knockara Beau 1pt win 20/1 William Hill Knockara Beau had a really good season last year. He was fourth in the Sun Alliance and the horses he mixed it with reads like a who who of novice chasing; Burton Port, Weaon's Amnesty, Weird Al and Diamond Harry. Knockara Beau was thrown in at the deep end first time out in the Charlie Hall and was pulled up. However, reading his trainer's comments George Charlton says his yard was out of form at the time. He has only had one runner in the past fourteen days, however that won at a big price. While that's too little to go on, its certainly a positive rather than a negative. If Knockara Beau is firing again he could go well on a course where he has run creditably in the past.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:20 Cheltenham: Restless Harry 1pt win 12/1 Ladbrokes & Quartz de Thaix 1pt win 10/1 Blue Square There might be a question mark or two over the market leaders. So it may pay to side with a couple of up and coming sorts. Restless Harry is proven on the course (two from three) and likes the going and stays this trip. He split Karabak and Zaynar last time out and with this stiffer finish could well improve past Karabak on four pounds better terms. Quartz de Thaix needs to improve but he is on a sharp upward curve and has the look of a horse who has not reached his ceiling. He is another that does well at Cheltenham, and for good measure handles the going and is proven at the distance.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 12:10 Cheltenham: Pantxoa 1pt e/w 10/1 Bet365 Sam Winner was impressive last time out and will be a hard nut to crack, however Pantxoa has scope for plenty of improvement and he is good hands. Alan King has a fine record with his juvenile hurdlers at Cheltenham, and with his horses in good form, Pantxoa could make the frame or even pull off a mini surprise.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Cheltenham: Noble Alan 1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365 Nicky Richards has not won this race, however several of his runners have gone close at decent prices, and Noble Alan may break his duck. Noble Alan has been brought along slowly and stepping up in distance here could bring about some improvement. There is enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest the distance will be in his compass. Slight concern is how fit he will be given the weather. At the price though, worth a small interest.