New Year's Resolution Thread

[Spooner]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread nice stats steve. :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Very nice work mate, top tipping, keep up the good work :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Epsom: Fathom Five 2pts win 9/1 & Indian Trail 1pt win 8/1 Both Ladbrokes Previous course form counts for a lot here and Fathom Five has two wins from three starts. It looks like today has been the plan for Fathom Five after he won over course and distance on the 21st April as he has not run since. Usually it pays for sprinters to be kept on the go when they strike form and to be off for more than a month can be unusual. However Fathom Five goes well fresh and Chris Wall has his string in good health with his horses running up to form. He has two winners from his last eleven runners and also a 27% strike rate at Epsom over the last five years. Fathom Five seems to have a good draw and handles the ground. His two wins have been in Class 3 races, so this represents a step up. However, he does go very well here. Indian Trail won this race last year when getting up by a short head after not getting a clear passage, and with Billy Cray's claim is lower this time around. Another very well suited by the course. Visor rather than the blinkers back on for this run. Could be very dangerous if he gets the breaks.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Musselburgh: Stolt 2pts win 16/1 Ladbrokes & Ridley Didley 1pt win 6/1 Betfred Stolt was second in a seller to The Bear who is now a non runner here in the middle of May. At the weights he probably had a difficult assignment and maybe that run has been underestimated in the market. Stolt has won off marks higher than his current 75 and while drawn widest of all, he appears well handicapped, in decent form and goes on the ground. Another of Noel Wilson's runners Ridley Didley has put up a couple of decent efforts the last twice and could go close. Just signed in started tapping away last night, forgot to thank Spooner & Stu for their comments....sorry guys

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Doncaster: Quanah Parker 2pts win 1pt place 22/1 William Hill Quanah Parker is lightly raced and ran quite well on his comeback last week after being off since June last year. He was presumably well thought of as he was enetered in a Listed race at the end of his two year old career. Quanah Parker went close second time out off this mark at York last year under similar conditions to today. With that first run under his belt Quanah Parker could go well here. Particularly as Richard Whitaker has a good record with his older horses at Doncaster, with a 21% strike rate and a £44 level stake profit over the past five years.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Brighton: Mandhooma 2pts win 33/1 Bet365 & Namu 1pt win 4/1 Blue Square Mandhooma runs well here and handles the firm ground. Only eight turf starts and two of those have been here. One resulted in a course and distance victory off 53. On a mark of 45 today and while out of the handicap, with William Carson's claim she looks very well weighted to go close again. A finish either first or last bet, (and probably the latter), worth a shot at 33/1. Namu is another that goes well here, is off a handy mark, and she too handles the going. With the cheek pieces on, a good effort looks on the cards.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:30 Windsor: Saturn Way 2pts win 10/1 Stan James & Magroom 1pt win 22/1 Sportingbet Saturn Way ran market leader Night Lilly close last time out and while that was on the all weather every chance this likley raced colt could improve again and on better terms turn the tables. Magroom looks a big price for a horse in form, and with the ground in his favour could go close at a decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:30 Salisbury: On Her Way 2pts win 6/1 Stan James On Her Way has apparently got a fair bit of character and only just went in the stalls last time out. Hard to say what she beat however likley to be more to come and Henry Cecil is in fine form and has a good record here with his 3 year olds (42%).

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 York: Victoire De Lyphar 2pts win 1pt place 12/1 Totesport Victoire De Lyphar won well first time out for David Nicholls and he is always a man to side with in the big sprints. The form of Victoire De Lyphar's last run has been well franked. The second Jack My Boy won his next two. The third Deacon Blue was second and then won, and the fourth Mon Brav has run some decent races too. David Nicholls is in good form and has a profitable record at the track.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 York: Desert Recluse 3pts win 1pt place 12/1 Coral Desert Recluse is at the foot of the weights as a three year old he is getting 15lb from the older horses and looking back it appears three year olds have a decent record in this race. Desert Recluse has a winning attitude, running up a hat trick on the all weather before getting off the mark last time out on turf at Sandown showing a battling attitude up that stiff finish. That sort of willing approach will help offset a 5lb higher mark. The form of Desert Recluse's win from Rock A Doodle Doo last time out and previous third behind Captain Cool and Dream Spinner (winner since) looks rock solid. Don't pretend to know a great deal about the jockey, however she has ridden a few winners and Pat Eddery's horses are running fine.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:55 Sandown: Masai Moon 2pts win 8/1 Bet365 Masai Moon was just beaten last week by the progressive Day of the Eagle at Doncaster, when the pair were well clear of the field. Not an easy task again today, but in form goes on the ground and likely to benefit from the strong pace.

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread :clapBrilliant tipping Steve Desert Recluse 11/1

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 York: Victoire De Lyphar 2pts win 1pt place 12/1 ToteSport Victoire De Lyphar won well first time out for David Nicholls and he is always a man to side with in the big sprints. The form of Victoire De Lyphar's last run has been well franked. The second Jack My Boy won his next two. The third Deacon Blue was second and then won, and the fourth Mon Brav has run some decent races too. David Nicholls is in good form and has a profitable record at the track.

Stevet1859

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Today, 12:08	#580 (permalink)
Stevet1859 Legendary Punter Join Date: 31 Dec 2008 Location: Near Great Leighs Posts: 1,343	Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 York: Desert Recluse 3pts win 1pt place 12/1 Coral Desert Recluse is at the foot of the weights as a three year old he is getting 15lb from the older horses and looking back it appears three year olds have a decent record in this race. Desert Recluse has a winning attitude, running up a hat trick on the all weather before getting off the mark last time out on turf at Sandown showing a battling attitude up that stiff finish. That sort of willing approach will help offset a 5lb higher mark. The form of Desert Recluse's win from Rock A Doodle Doo last time out and previous third behind Captain Cool and Dream Spinner (winner since) looks rock solid. Don't pretend to know a great deal about the jockey, however she has ridden a few winners and Pat Eddery's horses are running fine.

:nana:nana4 bets 4 winners for me today 2 from your advice I owe you a cyber pint man:beer

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Mark :ok been one of me best days !!!

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread BOOM :nana

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Fin thanks....and Mark just reread what you posted - 4 out of 4 thats a hellava day - hope you had a least some of them 'em in a multiple.

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread I sometimes put them in a Yankee mate but no not today other two were distant memories 5/1 and crown choice 11/2 £1 win yank would have been £8000 but I am very happy and as I say cheers for some excellent advicei certainly owe you a drink or 2. Yourself do you do multiples

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Me neither Mark - like you, happy enough with the singles 2:30 Royal Ascot: Dalghar 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet365 Dalghar is an interesting runner. By the same sire, Anabaa, as Goldikova, there would surely be easier opportunities for this four year old. Presumably highly thought of, it looks as though powerful connections have brought Dalghar along with this race in mind. Dalghar was an easy winner of a Group 3 at Longchamp earlier this month and looks ready for a step up to Group 1. Alain de Royer-Dupre could not be in better form and had the one two in the Prix De Diane on Sunday.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:00 Royal Ascot: Tyrrells Wood 1pt e/w 12/1 Bet365 Tyrrells Wood goes well fresh and looks capable of a big run on his debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam who won this race last year. Not that long ago Hugh Taylor pointed out the fine record of Jane Chapple-Hyan with staying horses, and over more than 13 furlongs she has a 21% strike rate and a level stake profit of over £115 in the past five years. Slight concern is 0 from 10 this year! However, Tyrells Wood stays this trip, handles the going and trainer's horses are running to form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Gold Cup 3:50 Royal Ascot Thursday: Bannaby 1pt e/w 33/1 Stan James Bannaby looks a sporting outsider to go well at a big price. If you go back, (admittedly to 2008) he holds a decision over both Kasbah Bliss and Yeats over the Gold Cup distance at Longchamp. The question is whether he can reproduce that same form two years later. His three runs this year have been encouraging. He was third at Saint Cloud first time out, getting going late, and staying on strongly. Then he got turned over at 1/10 in Madrid when denied a clear run over eleven furlongs. Last time out on the 23rd May he won easily over just short of two miles. Bannaby's trainer identified the Gold Cup as the principle target after the first run in France and his charge is reunited with Christophe Soumillon here. This is Bannaby's first crack at two and a half miles since 2008 and he looks to have been brought along for this. The trainer brought Equiano over a couple of years back to win the Kings Stand.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: Field of Dream 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet365 There appeared little fluke about Field of Dream beating Red Jazz last time out in a Listed race at Newmarket. And that King Charles II stakes has proved a good pointer to this race. At one point Field Of Dream had to be driven along and he was pushed wide yet at the finish was in command. However, he lines up here at more than twice the price of Red Jazz. The going at Newmarket was described as good, so Field of Dream should go well here. Field of Dream is lightly raced with scope for improvement. Luca Cumani's horses are running very well with a 37% strike rate over the past two weeks.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:35 Royal Ascot: Safina 2pts win 9/2 Betfred Safina is very lightly raced and should improve again. On her two outings this year she was fourth in the Nell Gwyn when not getting a clear run and then got off the mark in a maiden at Chester. She fits the profile of several previous winners and with powerful connections looks likely to go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 Royal Ascot: Kona Coast 1pt e/w 20/1 Victor Chandler (12345) Kona Coast has a fair bit going for him in a wide open race. He is drawn high and is trained by John Gosden who does well in these handicaps. Last time out he was third to Oasis Dancer, behind Balducci and ahead of Hypnotized. He is significantly better off at the weights with those shorter priced rivals. Looking through the form Kona Coast finished last season with a decent second behind coincidentally Oasis Dancer, and then went to Meydan where he under performed. Kona Coast had another couple of moderate efforts back in England on the all weather and then possibly over too far, before the encouraging third last time out. There is the chance he could improve again.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:35 Royal Ascot: Treadwell 1pt e/w 12/1 Bet365 & Webbow 1pt e/w 22/1 Victor Chandler (Both 12345) This has not been a good race for three year olds so far, however only a dozen or so have run in it. So there may be an opportunity for Tredwell to buck the trend. Two solid seconds with a particularly good effort last time out at Epsom, when he split two last time out winners, Cansili Star and Kajima. Jamie Osbourne is in good form and is pretty shrewd, so probably would not have entered Tredwell here agaist his elders if he did not think he had a chance. At the other end of the age spectrum and drawn on the other side of the track is Webbow. He is now eight, however he looks to be running in to form and did not get a clear run last time out. He ran well in this race last year and with Jimmy Fortune in the saddle could make a bold bid.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 Royal Ascot: Ingleby Lady 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet365 (12345) Ingleby Lady is lightly raced for a sprinter with only ten career starts, winning four of those. There could be more to come. This season she started with a win at York on good to firm in a Class 2 handicap, before staying on strongly over five next time at Musselburgh behind an in form Hamish McGonagall in the Scottish Sprint Cup. That looks a decent run, and with a draw close to the rail she looks set to go well again. David Barron's horses are in decent form and Graham Gibbons has a twenty five percent strike rate for the yard this season.

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Another cracking shout with treadwell Ste another shrewd character of many from this site.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Mark.... 5:00 Royal Ascot: Submariner 2pts win 9/1 & Shamali 1pt win 11/1 Both Ladbrokes Submariner looks as though he could be another horse that improves for Mark Johnston when stepping up in trip. He has won two races this year quite comfortably and although he is up six pounds and up in class, with so few miles on the clock and Frankie Dettori again in the plate a bold bid looks on the cards. Shamali has not set the world alight this season, however there is the feeling he has been trained with this race in mind. And on his third run back he could go close. Shamali has already won over the course twice and this looks another chance for William Haggas to enhance his record at the track.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: Zaidan 1pt win 7/1 Betfred Zaidan looks likely to improve on his first outing and this step up in trip. (The trouble is so do most of the others.) However, he did it nicely on his debut and those in behind have run quite respectively, Bunce, Foghorn Leghorn, Tarantella Lady and the fifth Breathless Storm won. Clive Brittain had a couple of winners earlier in the week.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Newmarket: Joe Packet 2pts win 13/2 Bet365 Joe Packet only won a maiden handicap last time, however he could be a horse where the penny has dropped and keeps on improving. Interestingly Johnny Portman has a 24% strike rate at Newmarket, which improves to 50% for three year olds. Which suggests he only brings those horses to HQ which he thinks have a solid chance. With John Fahy taking off five pounds Joe Packet could still be well handicapped.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Newcastle: Desert Sea 2pts win 1pt place 14/1 Coral Desert Sea is seven however he has relatively few miles on the clock and has not seen the course since finishing sixth in the Chester Cup. He goes well fresh and with a low draw could be in the shake up. Desert Sea is down two pounds from Chester and Neil Callan takes over in the plate. Neil Callan has an excellent record for the yard with a record of 5 from 11, which improves to 5 from 8 on older horses with over 22 points Lsp. Looking at David Arbuthnot's record he does well with his staying types with a 23% strike rate over the past five years. The jockey and trainer combined for the yards only winner in the past two weeks.