Kempton 17/11/08

[billy the punter]

It's all a bit "jumpy" on here at the minute. :) Thankfully we have two A/W cards today, not as exciting granted, but I fancy my chances more on the sand. 4.10 Hughie Morrison's last 9 runners that went off at 16/1 or lower have finished 211122243. His Machestermaverick runs here and I believe he is well handicapped (60) on his maiden form. Was 4th to St Trinians on debut at Wolverhampton (beatn 14l but didn't stay 9f), the winner is fairly useful (won twice since and narrowly beaten off 88 LTO) but those in behind weren't great. Manchestermaverick ran better than the formline suggests however, showing good pace before tiring. Was narrowly beaten 2nd time out, this time over 7f on grass at Catterick. It wasn't a great race (4th rated 64) but the winner (Bluejain) sluiced up in a handicap NTO and has held his own off 70 marks. Was a disappointing fav on his 3rd start, was only just touched off again but it was a poor race and his previous form should've seen him take that. He was given another chance to get his head in fron in maiden company on his next start - was again a beaten short priced favourite but stumbled badly at the start and that run can perhaps be forgiven. He made his handicap debut LTO off a mark of 60 and I thought he had to go well. He was 2nd again after travelling well. Obviously there has to be question marks over his ability in a finish. I was a little disappointed he didn't win off that mark but perhaps he 'ran into one'. Tender Process who won the race had dropped in the weights. Therefore I'm fully prepared to give him another chance here, especially with the yard in such decent form. He is definitely well handicapped and although he may not find as much as expected when let down he will surely get his head in front very soon at this level. And E/W bet is in order given his previous running style. Manchestermaverick 50% of stake E/W

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 5.10 Five of the fourteen runners interest me here and I'll work from a short-list of those alone. Eastern Gift - His mark is plummeting 100 => 69 and he is looking increasingly well handicap as he form doesn't exactly suggest he is regressing at the same rate. He has two decent pieces of form to his name in September and his last two starts on the sand are very encouraging, especially LTO where a 2nd to the handicap good thing Pivka reads as good as a win. The main niggling doubt I have is that he has just one neck victory to his 18 starts, worrying for a horse rated as highly as he was. Watson's Bay - Ran ok for a long way in the maiden won by the aforementioned Pivka. Not disgraced in maidens in Ireland prior and will do better now handicapping. Bramalea - Has shown a consistent level of form all season bar two poor efforts at Wolverhampton (when 10th and 9th). Clearly acts on poly running above form in dirt maidens before showing handicap dirt formlines of 10619. If she bounces back from her poor run LTO as she did when she ran poorly prior then she'd have a chance at a price. Diego Riveria - I fancied this horse back in August and wrote this:

Diego Riviera looked all over the winner at Newbury on soft ground before being collared at the death my Noseda's Myanmar. I know that Noseda thinks a bit of that horse and that should be seen as decent form. Was 9th to Aqlaam on debut - we know how good that maiden is and given that the 12th has gone close off 74 and the 19th has won off 66 (I could go on) you have to say that Diego Riviera has every chance off getting a handicap off a mark of 70. Will love the ground and Makin does well here.

He was 7th to Kalahari Gold in between those mentioned and that maiden also worked out well. He did run poor in the race where I backed him though and was disapointing LTO too. A break since so perhaps something was amiss. Acted on dirt on his sole start on it but the ability to stay a mile is debatable. Moon Crystal - I backed Moon Crystal earlier in the season off a mark of 70 and she should've been a lot closer than the 7l 3rd here over 10f. Dropping to a competitve mark and in my opinion it's a matter of time before she takes a handicap. Looked the winner LTO when given a confident ride by Ryan Moore but was collared by a typical A/W rattling finisher. Should go well again, especially if the first time blinkers eek out some improvement. Moon Crystal Eastern Gift Bramalea Diego Riveria Watson's Bay Will confirm bets if I have time tomorrow.

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 4.10 Kempton There was much to like about the way One More Round won last time out at Wolverhampton. I backed Welcome Approach in that race and said that I was passing over One More Round, despite the fact he was in my all-weather notebook, because I wanted to see how he performed back in handicaps, given that he had been doing his winning in claimers, even though he was potentially running off a decent mark. Well, he ran out an impressive winner and won going away that day, recording his highest speed figure for some time in the process. He even brought a chuckle from Tommo, calling them home, as he crossed the line! That was his debut run for David Evans after being claimed out of Ollie Pears' yard in October after finishing third behind Trimelstown at Lingfield. He wasn't a bad little horse in his heyday, contesting class 2 sprints for Dermot Weld in Ireland before joining Nick Littmoden in the UK, and it was somewhat inevitable at his age - he's now 10 - that he would have to be dropped down into claimers, as he was looking exposed running off marks in the 90's last November. His record at plating level on the all-weather is admirable given that on nine of his eleven starts for Pears he finished in the first three. However, current connections decided to step him back up into handicap company last time out following some leniency from the handicapper, and he was running off 65 at Dunstall Park five days ago. He showed a good turn of foot at the death to take the honours and racing in another class 6 handicap here he is too dangerous to dismiss. Although that previous handicap win came over six furlongs he has proven his effectiveness over 7f at Lingfield and Wolverhampton previously, and the only slightly doubt is whether he is suited to the course; its hard to tell given that he has only raced once here, from a poor draw, and never got involved. However, given the manner of his Wolverhampton win, where he didn't get the clearest of passages and had it all to do two furlongs out, and his record on the all-weather I think he's worth chancing because, on his old handicap rating, he could still be potentially well treated, even under a penalty here. 3/1 Ladbrokes

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 2:10 - Mystic Art Mystic Art was well backed last time out from 8/1 into 7/2. He finished 2nd that day at this track, Two runs ago he ran here over this distance and put in a decent run to finish third. I was waiting for this horse to come out again and I think he has a great chance to take all here. 5pts e/w @ sp

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 2:40 - Generous Lad Quite an obvious choice, Form at Kempton reads 12443 which is pretty consistent, Stepping up to 12f trip which should suit. Had a bad start to his last race and managed to stay on for third. Looks to be a real contender. 5pts e/w @ sp

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 3.40 Kempton I'm going to take a chance on one of the outsiders here at a big price, Back in the Red. The thing that caught my attention about him was that he is now 12 lbs lower than his last winning mark and he also has a handy draw in stall 10 for this 6 furlong sprint. Ron Harris' charge's last win came a year ago, and even though he hasn't won in thirteen runs since, there is no getting away from the fact he is down to a potentially decent mark. His other career wins have come of 56, 58 and 64, so todays rating of 58 should be within his capabilities. Blinkers replace the cheekpieces worn last time out so could make a difference and as previously stated, his draw his ideal here if he decides to make all (he has won both being held up and making all previously). 16/1 Ladbrokes, 5 pts EW.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08

2:10 - Mystic Art Mystic Art was well backed last time out from 8/1 into 7/2. He finished 2nd that day at this track, Two runs ago he ran here over this distance and put in a decent run to finish third. I was waiting for this horse to come out again and I think he has a great chance to take all here. 5pts e/w @ sp

6th. :\

[andyfmfb]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08

3.40 Kempton I'm going to take a chance on one of the outsiders here at a big price, Back in the Red. The thing that caught my attention about him was that he is now 12 lbs lower than his last winning mark and he also has a handy draw in stall 10 for this 6 furlong sprint. Ron Harris' charge's last win came a year ago, and even though he hasn't won in thirteen runs since, there is no getting away from the fact he is down to a potentially decent mark. His other career wins have come of 56, 58 and 64, so todays rating of 58 should be within his capabilities. Blinkers replace the cheekpieces worn last time out so could make a difference and as previously stated, his draw his ideal here if he decides to make all (he has won both being held up and making all previously). 16/1 Ladbrokes, 5 pts EW.

YYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAA :drums:cheers:beer Brilliant tip Fintron.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 Nice one Fin. :clap

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 Cheers chaps. Ron's rejects eh! :nana

[Trotter]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 Nice one fin..........all the way winner, no danger ! :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 5.10 - Diego Rivera Decided to get on this each way, finished 2nd on 3 of its last 4 outings although it hasn't ran in 86 days. Has finished 2nd on the all weather before as well at Wolverhampton so hopefully it will go the same here. 4 pts e/w @ 12/1 on Skybet

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 Nice one fin. :ok:ok:ok Tough day on the a/w I thought. Beat the odds on nearly everything but most of mine ran below par. Got a tiny amount back with the Hannon in the last but laid odds on for my money due to backing a few.