PLACE 051 System

[Boulder5111]

I've been working on a system for a while to attempt to highlight the value for both backing and laying on the place market on Betfair. Using data from the SportingLife and AdrianMassey websites, I've come up with this which I am going to paper trial. 1. All selections (both back and lay) are between 3/1 and 10/1 (inclusive) on the forecast sp on Sportinglife. 2. Due to these price constraints, the majority of the selections will be between 2.0 and 3.0 on the place market. 3. The starting bank is £1000 and the stakes are 0.5% of the bank for backs and a 1% liability of the bank for lays. Results will be recorded at the returned betfair place sp minus 5% commission. Therefore the starting bets are £5 backs and a liability of £10 on the lays I've tweaked with the criteria and the rules over the last few weeks and have decided to settle on this final draft :hope Thusday 6/11/08 BACKS H2.10 Kandjar dAllier H2.40 Coe T3.00 Code Agency H3.10 Ingratitude LAYS H2.10 Montevideo T2.30 Bathwick Quest T2.30 Student Loan T3.00 Captain Becket H3.10 Best Prospect H3.40 Percutant L3.50 Felicia

[Lechero79]

Re: PLACE 051 System Congrats on the good start today with 7/7 lays, I'll be following this thread with great interest.

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Many thanks Lechero :ok A little profit on the day but I'm not sure how much because the page that has the place sps on isn't displaying :unsure ! I may have to wait until the data is entered into the archive section which takes a few days longer. There were 2 from 4 successful backs and 6/7 successful lays (Bathwick Quest sneaked into 3rd unfortunately). Most of the lays were massive drifters sometimes doubling in price but I have to use the sp for recording purposes. Friday 7/11/08 BACKS H12.50 Lucozade F1.10 Postmaster M1.30 Visterre H1.50 Black Mogul H2.20 Mill Side M3.00 Hotham F3.10 Charles Street F3.40 Vibe LAYS H12.50 Peterpan De Solzen M1.00 Fire Up The Band M1.30 Musical Bridge F1.40 Shes Humble H1.50 Catch Bob F2.10 Cornell Precedent H2.20 Jass F2.40 Mandingo Chief M3.00 The Tatling M3.00 Cape Royal H3.20 Toulousse Express H3.20 Cybora N3.30 Los Nadis F3.40 Alecia F3.40 Quartz Du Moulain

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System A good day on the lays today and the results page was working (unlike yesterday !) :loon A few non runners but 3/6 on the backs and 12/14 on the lays. Results (winners in red) BACKS H12.50 Lucozade 1.49 M1.30 Visterre 1.61 H1.50 Black Mogul 1.63 M3.00 Hotham 2.54 F3.10 Charles Street 1.41 F3.40 Vibe 1.85 LAYS H12.50 Peterpan De Solzen 2.19 M1.00 Fire Up The Band 10.0 F1.40 Shes Humble 4.75 H1.50 Catch Bob 6.12 F2.10 Cornell Precedent 4.2 H2.20 Jass 2.86 F2.40 Mandingo Chief 2.55 M3.00 The Tatling 2.84 M3.00 Cape Royal 4.0 H3.20 Toulousse Express 2.79 H3.20 Cybora 3.8 N3.30 Los Nadis 3.08 F3.40 Alecia 3.0 F3.40 Quartz Du Moulain 2.52 I'll have to work out the profit/loss once I can get the data for yesterdays races. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: PLACE 051 System Hoprock, good luck with this mate, just be careful of the SL site for the forecast betting, its well known for being miles out sometimes, the RP is much more accurate.

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System thanks BH :ok Couldn't agree more actually..... To be honest, it's more laziness on my part using the SL website because I have it open for working out the qualifiers and also the Daily Mirror uses the SL prices and if I have that to hand, it helps speed up the process. Some of the prices have been way off though ! One on the first day was no bigger than 10/1 in the paper and returned at around 12/1 just for the place. A similar thing happened yesterday as well with Fire Up The Band. Really unusual day today - can't see any lays at all :\ BACKS D12.25 Sadeek S12.50 Bonchester Bridge W1.10 Kilcrea Asla W1.45 Amber Brook S2.30 Alphabetical S2.30 Bermuda Pointe D2.35 Chief Editor W2.50 Chomba Womba S3.00 Pascha Bere W3.25 Island Flyer S3.35 Gaora Lane

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System A few non runners again today but a pretty good day again (6 from 9). :ok Kilcrea Asla fell at the last as well when 1.01 in running for a place :( Results D12.25 Sadeek 4.7 S12.50 Bonchester Bridge 3.02 W1.10 Kilcrea Asla 1.79 W1.45 Amber Brook 1.80 S2.30 Bermuda Pointe 2.2 D2.35 Chief Editor 2.78 W2.50 Chomba Womba 1.98 W3.25 Island Flyer 1.65 S3.35 Gaora Lane 1.79

[Lechero79]

Re: PLACE 051 System Good work again...hows the P/L situation faring?

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Finally got the odds for day 1 so here is the profit/loss update. Starting Bank = £1000 Day 1 = +£3.16 Day 2 = +£22.89 Day 3 = +£14.83 Current Bank = £1040.88 Backs 11/19 Lays 18/21 SUMMARY Day 1 (stakes £5 backs / £10 liability lays) BACKS H2.10 Kandjar dAllier 2.45 +6.89 H2.40 Coe 1.51 -5.00 T3.00 Code Agency 1.63 -5.00 H3.10 Ingratitude 2.22 +5.80 LAYS H2.10 Montevideo 10.85 +0.96 T2.30 Bathwick Quest 3.12 -10.00 T2.30 Student Loan 6.6 +1.70 T3.00 Captain Becket 5.4 +2.16 H3.10 Best Prospect 5.23 +2.25 H3.40 Percutant 12.5 +0.83 L3.50 Felicia 4.7 +2.57 Day 2 (£5.02 Backs / £10.03 liability lays) BACKS H12.50 Lucozade 1.49 -5.02 M1.30 Visterre 1.61 -5.02 H1.50 Black Mogul 1.63 +3.00 M3.00 Hotham 2.54 -5.02 F3.10 Charles Street 1.41 +1.96 F3.40 Vibe 1.85 +4.05 LAYS H12.50 Peterpan De Solzen 2.19 +8.01 M1.00 Fire Up The Band 10.0 +1.06 F1.40 Shes Humble 4.75 +2.54 H1.50 Catch Bob 6.12 +1.86 F2.10 Cornell Precedent 4.2 +2.98 H2.20 Jass 2.86 -10.03 F2.40 Mandingo Chief 2.55 +6.13 M3.00 The Tatling 2.84 +5.18 M3.00 Cape Royal 4.0 +3.18 H3.20 Toulousse Express 2.79 +5.32 H3.20 Cybora 3.8 +3.40 N3.30 Los Nadis 3.08 +4.58 F3.40 Alecia 3.0 +4.76 F3.40 Quartz Du Moulain 2.52 -10.03 Day 3 (£5.13 backs / £10.26 liability lays) BACKS D12.25 Sadeek 4.7 -5.13 S12.50 Bonchester Bridge 3.02 -5.13 W1.10 Kilcrea Asla 1.79 -5.13 W1.45 Amber Brook 1.80 +3.90 S2.30 Bermuda Pointe 2.2 +5.85 D2.35 Chief Editor 2.78 +8.67 W2.50 Chomba Womba 1.98 +4.78 W3.25 Island Flyer 1.65 +3.17 S3.35 Gaora Lane 1.79 +3.85

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Monday 10/11/08 BACKS C1.55 Rimsky C2.25 Andrew Nick C2.25 Skippers Brig LAYS C1.20 Blackpool Billy C1.20 Quicuyo C1.20 Torkinking C2.55 First Look C3.30 Blue Rising C3.30 Nicozetto W3.40 Matterofact W4.40 Justcallmehandsome

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Todays stakes were £5.20 on the backs and a liability of £10.41 on the lays. Small profit on the day (£3.33). Bank now £1044.21. :ok Results BACKS C1.55 Rimsky 2.3 -5.20 C2.25 Andrew Nick 2.06 +5.24 C2.25 Skippers Brig 1.90 +4.45 LAYS C1.20 Blackpool Billy 2.62 +6.10 C1.20 Quicuyo 3.04 +4.85 C1.20 Torkinking 7.33 +1.56 C2.55 First Look 3.55 -10.41 C3.30 Blue Rising 4.0 +3.30 C3.30 Nicozetto 3.68 - 10.41 W3.40 Matterofact 10.0 +1.10 W4.40 Justcallmehandsome 4.56 +2.78

[Lechero79]

Re: PLACE 051 System Nice work...a profit is a profit, and if I'm not mistaken, 4/4 days in profit now!!

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System thanks again Lechero :ok Yes 4 out of 4 now, let's hope for 5 with this lot.....:hope Tuesday 11/11/08 BACKS S12.50 Karmadice S1.50 Banoge S2.20 Day To Remember E2.40 Spare Cash E3.40 Folie A Deux LAYS S12.50 Pete S1.50 Kilkenny All Star E2.10 Master Wells E2.10 Oscar Gogo

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Another profit on the day :ok but again the betfair sp results page isn't updated so I'll have to update the p/l at a later date :\ Results BACKS S12.50 Karmadice S1.50 Banoge E2.40 Spare Cash E3.40 Folie A Deux LAYS S12.50 Pete S1.50 Kilkenny All Star E2.10 Master Wells E2.10 Oscar Gogo

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System A bumper Wednesday ! :loon BACKS K12.30 Michael Flips S12.40 La Estrella B1.25 Carrick Oscar B1.25 Or Bleu B2.00 Aleron K2.15 Nakai K3.50 Double The Trouble K3.50 Bedizen LAYS S12.40 Kangrina B1.25 King Of Confusion B1.25 Stop The Show K1.40 Butterfly Rose B2.00 Appleaday K2.15 Ringaroses B3.10 Divers B3.10 Edgebury B3.10 Radmores Revenge K3.20 Blaze Ahead B3.40 Faversham B3.40 Bewery Man B3.40 Morning Roses K3.50 Ashwell Lad S4.00 Whitbarrow S4.00 Tenancy

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Update on Tuesdays prices.... Results BACKS S12.50 Karmadice 2.27 -5.22 S1.50 Banoge 1.51 +2.53 E2.40 Spare Cash 1.77 +3.82 E3.40 Folie A Deux 1.92 +4.56 LAYS S12.50 Pete 3.95 +3.36 S1.50 Kilkenny All Star 3.0 -10.44 E2.10 Master Wells 3.25 +4.41 E2.10 Oscar Gogo 3.6 +3.81 Profit on the day = £6.83 Bank Now £1051.04 Stakes for Wednesday (Day 6) are £5.26 on the backs and a £10.51 liability on the lays.

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System A good day on the backs yesterday :ok The only one missing out on the frame was a big drifter that was pulled up. Profit on the day = £12.58 Bank Now = £1063.62 Results BACKS K12.30 Michael Flips 1.33 +1.65 S12.40 La Estrella 1.45 +2.25 B1.25 Carrick Oscar 1.43 +2.15 B1.25 Or Bleu 1.54 +2.70 B2.00 Aleron 4.42 -5.26 K2.15 Nakai 1.73 +3.65 K3.50 Double The Trouble 1.97 +4.85 K3.50 Bedizen 4.4 +16.99 LAYS S12.40 Kangrina 2.16 -10.51 B1.25 King Of Confusion 7.6 +1.51 B1.25 Stop The Show 3.11 +4.73 K1.40 Butterfly Rose 9.22 +1.21 B2.00 Appleaday 6.4 +1.85 K2.15 Ringaroses 5.12 +2.42 B3.10 Divers 8.0 +1.43 B3.10 Edgebury 15.0 +0.71 B3.10 Radmores Revenge 7.6 +1.51 K3.20 Blaze Ahead 10.43 -10.51 B3.40 Faversham 1.74 -10.51 B3.40 Bewery Man 4.5 -10.51 B3.40 Morning Roses 1.72 +13.87 K3.50 Ashwell Lad 3.0 +4.99 S4.00 Whitbarrow 1.52 -10.51 S4.00 Tenancy 6.2 +1.92

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Hoping for 7 winning days from 7 with this lot :hope BACKS L1.20 Carmenero L1.30 Tora Petcha L2.00 Will The Till L2.00 Randolph O'Brien L3.00 Rustler T3.10 Kerrys Girl T3.40 The Venetian LAYS L12.50 Mixing L1.30 Muraco L1.30 Cosmic String T1.40 Government T1.40 Bestbestyoucanbe T2.10 Kinkeel T2.10 Faraday T2.10 Park Lodge T2.10 Finnegans Rainbow L2.30 Bite Un Fight T3.10 Pepperoni Pete T3.10 Triple Bluff L3.20 Quick Single L3.20 Black N Brew

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Profit on the day £11.15. Bank now £1074.77 :ok Results BACKS L1.20 Carmenero 2.12 -5.32 L2.00 Will The Till 2.91 +9.65 L2.00 Randolph O'Brien 3.1 -5.32 L3.00 Rustler 2.42 +7.18 T3.10 Kerrys Girl 2.61 +8.14 T3.40 The Venetian 2.27 -5.32 LAYS L12.50 Mixing 6.8 +1.74 L1.30 Muraco 3.1 +4.81 L1.30 Cosmic String 5.38 +2.31 T1.40 Government 4.2 +3.16 T1.40 Bestbestyoucanbe 7.8 -10.64 T2.10 Kinkeel 2.48 +6.83 T2.10 Park Lodge 4.7 +2.73 T2.10 Finnegans Rainbow 5.49 +2.25 L2.30 Bite Un Fight 4.0 +3.37 T3.10 Pepperoni Pete 6.21 +1.94 T3.10 Triple Bluff 3.8 -10.64 L3.20 Quick Single 2.83 +5.52 L3.20 Black N Brew 2.75 -10.64

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Day 8 :hope BACKS C12.30 Quail C12.50 Girgio quercus C12.50 Simarian C12.50 Nampour U1.05 Mistanoora C1.25 Ballyfitz C2.35 Silverburn C2.35 Bible Lord U2.45 Spear Thistle LAYS U1.35 Norman Beckett W2.20 Star Beat U2.45 Sheriff Hutton U2.45 Phardessa W2.55 Leading Man W2.55 Laertes C3.10 The Sliotar U3.20 Misbehaviour W3.25 Smoothly Does It

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Here's the stats for the 7 days so far.....:ok Day 1 = + 3.16 Day 2 = + 22.89 Day 3 = + 14.83 Day 4 = + 3.33 Day 5 = + 6.83 Day 6 = + 12.58 Day 7 = + 11.15 Total Profit = +74.77 Backs = 26/40 = 65% Lays = 48/62 = 77%

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Day 8 Results BACKS U12.30 Quail 1.67 -5.37 C12.50 Girgio quercus 1.49 -5.37 C12.50 Simarian 3.52 +12.86 C12.50 Nampour 4.62 -5.37 U1.05 Mistanoora 2.6 -5.37 C1.25 Ballyfitz 1.52 +2.65 C2.35 Silverburn 1.85 -5.37 C2.35 Bible Lord 3.29 -5.37 U2.45 Spear Thistle 1.74 +3.78 LAYS U1.35 Norman Beckett 4.58 +2.85 W2.20 Star Beat 1.93 +10.98 U2.45 Sheriff Hutton 4.28 -10.75 U2.45 Phardessa 7.0 +1.70 W2.55 Leading Man 7.8 +1.50 W2.55 Laertes 2.6 +6.38 C3.10 The Sliotar 3.6 +3.93 U3.20 Misbehaviour 3.48 +4.12 W3.25 Smoothly Does It 3.5 +4.09 Profit on the day = £11.87. Bank now £1086.64

[TheLayKing]

Re: PLACE 051 System Going well so far mate, and a sensible staking plan as well.. Hope this goes well for ya matey.

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System

Going well so far mate' date=' and a sensible staking plan as well.. Hope this goes well for ya matey.[/quote'] many thanks :ok The staking plan is more Dido than death metal to handle the inevitable bad runs but it's going ok so far !! :hope Tuesday 17/11/08 BACKS F1.40 Rustarix S2.20 Barkass LAYS S12.20 Stoneacre Chris S12.20 Tenancy S12.20 Vanatina F1.00 Blueberry Ice F2.10 Serhaaphim S2.20 Dry Speedfit S2.50 Dado Mush F3.00 Russian Flag S3.20 Mister Incredible S3.20 Fish Called Johnny S3.20 My Flame

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Loss on the day = £1.49. Bank now £1085.15 :\ Results BACKS F1.40 Rustarix 1.50 +2.58 S2.20 Barkass 1.74 +3.82 LAYS S12.20 Stoneacre Chris 7.4 +1.61 S12.20 Tenancy 3.13 -10.87 S12.20 Vanatina 3.0 +5.16 F1.00 Blueberry Ice 7.8 -10.87 F2.10 Serhaaphim 4.27 +3.16 S2.20 Dry Speedfit 13.0 +0.86 S2.50 Dado Mush 3.96 +3.49 F3.00 Russian Flag 4.16 +3.27 S3.20 Mister Incredible 4.2 -10.87 S3.20 Fish Called Johnny 3.4 +4.30 S3.20 My Flame 4.6 +2.87

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Day 10 :hope BACKS M1.10 Imtihan M2.40 Money Point W3.00 New Perk W4.00 Bawn Boy LAYS M1.10 Supsonic M2.10 Glacial Delight w2.30 Sir Harry Cool M2.40 Categorical M2.40 Billesey W3.00 Topless W3.00 Pan The Man M3.10 Brave Rebellion

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Results BACKS M1.10 Imtihan 3.12 +10.94 M2.40 Money Point 1.93 +4.80 W3.00 New Perk 4.5 +18.05 W4.00 Bawn Boy 2.88 -5.43 LAYS M1.10 Supsonic 4.31 +3.11 M2.10 Glacial Delight 12.0 +0.94 w2.30 Sir Harry Cool 4.6 +2.86 M2.40 Categorical 2.64 -10.85 M2.40 Billesey 4.76 +2.74 W3.00 Topless 4.1 +3.33 W3.00 Pan The Man 11.93 +0.95 M3.10 Brave Rebellion 2.46 -10.85 Profit on the day = £20.59. Bank now £1105.74 Here's the stats for the 10 days so far.....:ok Day 1 = + 3.16 Day 2 = + 22.89 Day 3 = + 14.83 Day 4 = + 3.33 Day 5 = + 6.83 Day 6 = + 12.58 Day 7 = + 11.15 Day 8 = + 11.87 Day 9 = - 1.49 Day 10 = + 20.59 Total Profit = +105.74 Backs = 34/55 = 62% Lays = 70/90 = 78% Bank Increase = +10.57% :ok

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System Day 11 :hope BACKS E1.40 Pancake A2.05 Dee Ee Williams A2.05 Secret Tune A2.40 Soleil Fix A2.40 Alphabetical E2.50 Pistol Desbois E2.50 Buck The Legend A3.15 Cant Buy Time E3.25 Master D'Or A3.50 Dishdasha LAYS K1.15 Watch My Back A1.30 Hill Forts Tommy A1.30 Poker De Sivola K3.00 Hidden Bounty

[Pauli79]

Re: PLACE 051 System Hi just picked up on the thread but results look pretty good.To recap are you backing in the place market and laying in the normal market? paul

[Boulder5111]

Re: PLACE 051 System

Hi just picked up on the thread but results look pretty good.To recap are you backing in the place market and laying in the normal market? paul

thanks Pauli and :welcome to PL :ok Both the backs and lays are on the place market. I think from memory that there's only been 4 from the 90 lays that have actually been first past the post so I'm sure that laying in the win market would've been in profit also. I just prefer the place market because I figure that if you're happy enough that the horse isn't going to win, then there's a chance that it could struggle for a place also.