Guest Da Hannanah Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Right, point taken - both of you :) Still, you would get more qualified feed back if you were to discuss your selection criteria. But that is altogether up to you, Whopper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Btw., what does DIMB actually stand for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 DIMB Doh, I Made a Booboo Dough I Made for my Bookie .... actually DaveIanMickBob - a group of 4 of us who put heads together at the start of it to come up with some ideas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: DIMB Toptips, you affiliated or a regular spammer? Ah, you'll be a spammer then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: DIMB Hey De Han, Paranoia is heighened awareness ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Whoppers System There a no mid week predictions for this week from my system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 27, 2003 Share Posted February 27, 2003 Whoppers System Weekend Fixtures (01/02 Mar) Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven 1.8 at bet365 Besiktas v Goztep 1.16 at bet365 The double is 2.09 In accordance with my staking plan the bet is 10 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 27, 2003 Share Posted February 27, 2003 Re: Whoppers System I have now finished the backtesting of this system. After just over 31000 results have been put though the accuracy rate is 69.51% over all seasons (ncluding this unfinished season). The leagues that have been looked at are: Belgium 69.5% England 66.46 France 61.78 Germany 61.33 Greece 80.33 Holland 74.26 Italy 68.38 Portugal 73.91 Scotland 72.55 Spain 57.38 Turkey 73.16 From at least the 95/95 season. Some go back as far as the 93/94 season. Basically whatever results data Joe had I have used. I have only looked at the top league for each country. I had to rethink the formula I was using to get more consistant results (thats why we do back testing I guess) and I am now very happy with the way it works. My quick observations when I was putting the results through was that the beginning of the season was less predictable (fairly obvious I guess) and I suspect the very end of the season will see a drop off in predictability as well. 69.5% is not good enough for value betting on doubles though as a double has 48.3% of coming in and I'm trying to bet on the at evens (50%). This is where the second part of the calculations come in. The first part is mathematical based in home/Away form, Current form (last 6 matched) and overall from (for the season). The maths pulls in 4-10 matches a week or so. The second part involves researching the teams (or gut feeling) to mind a double from them. As stated when I was first doing this I had a 90% strike rate for pulling the teams from the seleted bunch. I will have to strat this again from scratch as I have changed the formula (last week winners count though as I was using the new firmula then). Clealy I cannot back test what I would bet on! Anyway from this I have bee thinking of an over/under prediction tool. I would not be hard to modify my tool to do this as well. I'll give this some thought and post any finding here at a later date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Ok, another good weekend :p The stats so far: Starting Bank: 100 Amount Staked: 20 Bets: 3 (all doubles) Current Bank: 111.83 Yield: 59.15% edit: that makes more sense, cheers odds! This seems a little high, could someone please confirm that yield is (actual profit/ number of bets)*100%. The stats are only after 3 bets so they don't mean a great fdeal yet, but at least it's a good start :D There are no midweek games worth betting on this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Yield% = (profit/total amount staked)*100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 Whoppers System Not many matches to choose from this weekend, but I have chosen 2 to place in a double. Weekend Sat 8th March Zwolle v Ajax @ 1.4 with bet365 Bayern Munich v Barern Leverkusen @ 1.36 with bet365 double pays 1.9. Not as high a usual, but these are the only games I feel comfortable with. The Stake will be 10 units. My staking plan is as follows: To try and double the winnings I will be betting with 5 units at the beggins to get it to 10. If it wins then 10 units to 20. And so on. After 2 wins on the trot then half is banked, so it may go like this: stake Win Added to Bank 5 10 0 10 20 10 10 20 0 (this weeks bet :D ) 20 40 20 20 40 0 40 80 40 (if it ever gets that high :\ ) etc I know on this bet the double will only pay 1.9 and therefore will not double my stake, but the last 2 wins have payed out over 2.0 so if this weekends one wins then it will even itself out a little. Obviously if I have a failure I simple go back to the last amount banked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 9, 2003 Share Posted March 9, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Another winner this weekend. Stating bank: 100 Current bank: 120.92 Bets: 4 Yield: 69.73% Not a bad start for this system I think you will agree :b I will post the next tips on Tuesday morning for those interested in any possible midweek games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 11, 2003 Share Posted March 11, 2003 Re: Whoppers System As seems to be the norm at the moment there are no mid week predictions. There does appears to be quite a few games being thrown up this weekend for possible bets though (maybe a 12 way acca on the side). I will most these when I get the prices for them all (probably Thusrday). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 13, 2003 Share Posted March 13, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Right, this weekends picks are: Bochum v Bayern Munich 1.61 at bet265 Besiktas v ankaragucu 1.25 @ bet365 The double pays 2.01 In line with my (maybe a little too aggresive) staking plan the bet is 20 units. Is anyone actually interested in this (or even following this thread)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 13, 2003 Share Posted March 13, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Of course we are. But systems get more interesting the longer they run, assuming of course that we give up when we are convinced that we are not gaining an edge. Keep an eye on the number of views and don't worry about the number of posts. After all, it is not really a discussion thread. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 13, 2003 Share Posted March 13, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Cheers odds. Guess your are right, the number of views is probably a better way to access the interest in this particular thread. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 17, 2003 Share Posted March 17, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Another excellent weekend. Bank now stands at: Starting bank: 100 units Current Bank: 141.30 units Yield: 82.60% Bets: 5 (all doubles). I think you have to agree, not a bad start :p . In line with my staking plan, 20 units are to be banked so the next bet will be 20 units. A system question for you all. At the moment my system is running at 77% accuracy for this season. From back testing the data of previous season it average out at 70% and is fairly level (never been above 73% for any one season before). I wonodered if it could either be the fact that the end of the season (which obviously this season is about to hit) would cause the drop off, or the way the system was backtested. For example, right now a calculate a weekend worth of fixtures and after the weekend I fill in the results and re-calculate the league (the system using the league position as part of the formula). When backtesting I tested each fixture individually (it was easier to automate it that way), i.e. the fixture came up, the result calculated, then then result recorded and league updated, then the next fixture etc... Any comments please from you guys that have done back testing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 18, 2003 Share Posted March 18, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Only 2 midweek games that come on the system. Rangers v Motherwell @ 1.10 (bet365) Galatasary v Denizlispor @ 1.20 (bet365) As would be expected both the odds are short and as I cannot double them to make evens then a bet is not worth it. As an change to how I have been showing my system so far I will be posting all the matches the system predicts as 'certainties' as well as showing the selectons I will be backing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted March 18, 2003 Share Posted March 18, 2003 Re: Whoppers System without knowing more about your system it isn't really possible to speculate as to whether you might expect a drop off at the end of the season, but it is possible I suppose. THe other question would be the number of bets in this season versus other seasons. If it is low, then the 77% might just be a fluctuation with no underlying significance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 18, 2003 Share Posted March 18, 2003 Re: Whoppers System The 77% is not bet accuracy, it is prediction accuracy. I don't bet on every single prediction at the moment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 20, 2003 Share Posted March 20, 2003 Re: Whoppers System This weekend bet for the double is SV Pasching v SV Salzburg @ 1.66 bet365 Bayern Munich v Hansa Rostock @ 1.22 bet365 double pays 2.03 and in accordance with my staking plan 20 units will be bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 24, 2003 Share Posted March 24, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Not so good this week with Pasching losing there first home game of the season! Anyhow this is how it stands; Startung bank: 100.00 Current Bank: 121.30 Amount Staked: 70.00 Amount Returned: 91.30 Yield: 30.43% No. of Bets: 6 (all doubles) No midweek or weekend bets this week due to internationals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Whoppers System For this weekend (5th/6th) I have quite a few teams to choose from. I have selected the following (all odds frmo bet365): Sunderland v Chelsea @ 1.61 :D Juventus v Torino @ 1.30 :D Double @ 2.093 This will be a 20 unit bet in line with my staking plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 6, 2003 Share Posted April 6, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Get in there. Back on the winning path! Starting Bank: 100 Current Bank: 141.30 Amount Staked: 90 Amount Returned: 133.30 Yield: 48.11% No. of bets: 7 (all doubles) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted April 7, 2003 Share Posted April 7, 2003 SCORES well whopper, i'm still following your system! Looks good so far, it would be helpful if you could post the results of all your selections as I often dont get the european results too easily. Thanks and keep it up!:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 7, 2003 Share Posted April 7, 2003 Re: SCORES Irish if you bothered to look around a little you would find sites such as livescore.com which will give you live scores from games in most major leagues around the world. It will also typically give you the most recent scores in each league. Remember that people here are giving all their tips and info for free. Asking them to go to extra effort for something that is freely available to you can annoy people. M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 7, 2003 Share Posted April 7, 2003 Re: SCORES Irish - I am posting all my selections for this particular system. I am not betting on any other matches as doubles (or trebles). If you wish to see more selections then go and see my other system, Whoppers Calculated System. Glad your following/ enjoying the results so far though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted April 8, 2003 Share Posted April 8, 2003 madmick "Irish if you bothered to look around a little you would find sites such as livescore.com which will give you live scores from games in most major leagues around the world. It will also typically give you the most recent scores in each league. Remember that people here are giving all their tips and info for free. Asking them to go to extra effort for something that is freely available to you can annoy people. M." _______________________________________ All I asked is that if he wants people to view this thread and see exactly how his strategy is doing it would be helpful if he could post the results which would invlve liitle more than editing the original post. If he doesn't want to thats fine. I was only making a helpful suggestion which would have been to the benefit of whopper and other PL users who viewed his system. Also whopper, you may have misunderstood me but I was not looking for more tips, just stating something that it would add to the interest in your system (you admitted not long ago that you were wondering if anyone was viewing it). Keep it up:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 8, 2003 Share Posted April 8, 2003 Re: madmick apologies if I misinterpreted. Whopper normally edits his original messages and inserts smileys to indicate succesful bets. I thought you meant you wanted the scores Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 8, 2003 Share Posted April 8, 2003 Re: madmick I realised on this thread I haven't been doing the smileys, not really sure why. Anyway thats what I'll be doing from now on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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