Guest Whopper73 Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Right, after many weeks of research, tweaking and setting things up I have finally got a system I like. What I intend to do is post some bets each week to prove the system. If anybody wants to use these tips then they are welcome, but I won't guarantee you a thing :p Let me explain a few things. I find it very hard to find value in individual bets as I'm am never too sure on how to calculate it accurately so I have gone for value in a system. This is how it works. The system picks results from 14 European Leagues including the Champions legue. Basically some formulas based on form are calculated. The will return a measly 6 to 9 matches that may be worth betting on. From the 50 games so far the average odds have only been 1.33. The percentage of these that have been correct has been just over 80% though. The ones I have selected to bet from the ones chosen by the system have been 90% accurate. Obviously just because the system picks them doesn't mean I have to, once the system has highlighted them then I do my research/ gut feeling...call it what you will. Anyway, from the games I have picked to bet I have a 90% accuracy so far of getting it right. Now 1.33 isn't great odds to make some money so a double or treble is necessary. I am gong for overall odds of 2.0 (evens) so depending on the individual odds depends if I go for a double or treble. At 90% single accuracy that gives 81% doubles accuracy and 73% trebles accuracy. That is all value when you consider the bet is 2.0 (50%). The reason I am posting this is because I want the brains out there to pick some faults with this before I blow a big stack of cash. There are many of you who have been doing this far longer and who I respect the opinions of, so please post! My staking plan will go along the lines of: Starting bank : 100 units First stake: 5 units After each win then that that becomes the next stake. After 3 wins on the trot I keep half in the bank and use the other half as the stake. I a bet loses then I bet with the last amount i banked. If I end up betting all the money banked then I use a stake of 5 units until I have no bank! Obviously there will be a limit to how high I can bet depengin on each bookies maximum bet. If I reach the max then I will just bet the max until I lose, then keep building back up again. I have run this staking model on my PC and it works well for as low as 60% accuracy on evens betting so it should be ok. But agian, comments please. Full records will be kept of all bets. I realise the system is low on data at the moment, but I will be running this for a long time to get all the data possible. I will also be posting it's accuracy as well as the next bets. Now for the fun part! This weekends (15/02/03) bets are: Motherwell v Celtic @ 1.3 Maritimo v FC Porto @ 1.72 double is 2.236 with gamebookers 5 units will be staked. Cheers, Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 good stuff Whopper This sounds interesting. I will digest what you have posted and reply in detail later. One quick comment though - it might be an idea to put the date of the matches also, just for clarity. M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 something missing you never actually said what your formulas were for picking these games so what are you asking to be judged on? If you do get such a high proportion right, keep posting these tips every week and make us all rich. I also cant really follow your banking system so could you please make it clearer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dranny Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Staking Is the staking not 5 units of the initial 100? e.g if his start bank was £100, the stake would be £5 Ta Dranny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 A Quick Question How many game are in the sample that gave 90% success? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Re: A Quick Question Danny, you are right. But it is considered rude to talk in terms of money! Odds, the sample is from 50 predictions so far with that 30 of which were considered for bets. I obviously didn't place the bets then. Now I am! Quite clearly this is a small sample, but it will grow over time. I will keep this thread updated as to what happens. MadMick, date added as requested! Irish, like I'm going to tell anyone how the calculations are done :lol It's based on form, both home or away (depending if the tema is home or away) and the last 6 games they have played. Plus a few other factors are thrown in to remove the wheat from the chaff. Whoper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 with hobbies like this: "Hobbies :: Collecting Star Wars Lego":rollin :rollin :rollin Is it any wonder he's too mean to share his strategy with us? I mean, why are you posting this? You are the first person I've EVER seen on this site with an attitude like that. Is it to show off that you have a strategy that works yet you wont tell us what it is! Chances are you are just picking these games at random ( the 2 you posted today) in the hope of appplause WHEN they win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Re: with hobbies like this: I'm posting this to prove it works and by making it public it means I cannot fudge the results I get. It makes my results 'real' if you like. I am not after a round of applause. This is a betting site, you post tips. Or at least that is what I thought it was about. Believe me Irish, the games are not picked at random. I have been developing a program in Access to calculate these results and to record and show the data in a meaningful way for the past 2 months. Oh by the way Irish, my hobby maybe a bit sad and geekish, but it is making me money. At least I am proud to admit what I enjoy, so go ahead and laugh it up! Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Re: with hobbies like this: Irish, you say Is it any wonder he's too mean to share his strategy with us? Have you read any of the threads in systems and strategies? Many post their selections here without expressing how they came up with the selections, which I think is perfectly understandable. Think about it........ if the bookies see a successful system and the poster has explained how he made his picks then they can simply take this into account and adjust the odds accordingly. ........end of successful system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Re: with hobbies like this: Whopper, just a couple of quick observations. Are you aware that Henrik is injured? Have a look at Celtic's last 6 league games without Henrik's goals. Also remember at the last meeting Motherwell defeated them. Also noted the one of your selections is 1.72 and I would seriously doubt a 90% strike rate can be maintained at these odds. There is no problem with what you are doing here. As Norfolk says, if you have a winning system you would be a fool to reveal your methods but hopefully you will still post your selections here for us all to fill our boots. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 Re: more about the system yep, realised that Larsson was out. Also realised that Celtic do have other strikers. I would be more concerned if all there defence were out! But I do understand your point though! I realise that 1.72 is long in terms of what I have already said. As far as the system is concerned though, that odds are there just to make money. I'm not concerned what a bookie thinks my chances are. In fact the odds are the last thing I look at. In the last few weeks it has picked the away wins for Torino v Inter (1.72) and Atalana v Juventus (1.72). Also interestingly enough Seria A has been the most predictable league so far with the French top division the worst! But don't make too many conclusions yet as much more data is needed first. Whopper73 P.S. don't worry I will keep posting the selections as long as I am welcome! Wether you will be able to fill your boots though remains to be seen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 14, 2003 Share Posted February 14, 2003 some comments Whopper I've had time now to have a look at your (proposed) system. Your strike rate of 90%, while initially seeming extraordinarily high, is not out of keeping with what would be expected by guesswork at these odds, i.e. 75%. I am not 100% clear whether the 90% refers to the 50 games, or a subset of these though? Lets take the 80% figure - that represents an edge of about 7% which is very respectable. Kelly staking would suggest for average odds of 2.0 you would use 22% of bank, so your stake size seems reasonable, albeit cautious, for the treble bet you propose, but I would suggest staking differently - rather than 5 units on the treble, I'd look at something like 3 units on each of the singles, with three 1 unit doubles and 1 half-unit treble - total stake size 12.5 units with a better spread of risk - you'll still do nicely if all three come in, but will also make only a small loss if only two come in Your staking plan looks ok, but I would look to take out some profits from the system on a regular basis. Possibly after every third bet you might consider taking out of the system half of any profit made to date I wouldn't be so keen on varying the stakes so dynamically as you suggest - you are almost making a treble of trebles as you propose it! I'd stick to something like I suggest above, and maybe when your bank has hit a certain target (e.g. 50% increase) you might look at revising the basic 5 unit stake (or whatever it is) upwards. The key question underlying all of this is how confident you can be about maintaining this kind of strike rate. Have you back tested the system on previous years data at all? It sounds like it should be amenable to this sort of testing. If you want to discuss this in some more depth, drop me an e-mail - tmmneural AT yahoo DOT co DOT uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 17, 2003 Share Posted February 17, 2003 Re: some comments Right, not a good start! What with frozen pitches and teams losing for the first time this season! I am now 5 units down on my starting bank. This should only be a small set back, but time will tell :rolleyes If there are any midweek bets a deem worthy then I will post them on Monday/ Tuesday and the bets for next weekend will be posted on Thursday/ Friday. Hopefully it will be better next time :p Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted February 17, 2003 Share Posted February 17, 2003 Re: some comments Bad Luck Whopper - Keep going. As for the comments made by Irish I have to say that I do not agree with him at all. :b Whopper is posting his picks UP FRONT so if it is as good a system as we all hope it will be then what is MEAN about telling you his tips before the game starts? :rolleyes Put your money on if you want to. :D As for the lego collecting thing well it's got to be healthier than my growing obsessions with porn and / or Tommos post about Prague (see General Chat) ...... :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 17, 2003 Share Posted February 17, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Cheers GETT1NLOTS, nice to have a supporter! I have realised not to take much notice of Irish TW@ these days! Back to the system: There are no midweek predictions for this week (beginning 17/02/03) This is not a surprise as I don't usually find many midweek predictions. Whopper73 P.S. I am hoping to do some extensive backtesting over the next coulpe of weeks now I have found a pottential source for all the historical data I need. Hopefully I will be able to get some good conclusions from it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 RE OK whopper, I apologise, keep posting those tips and collecting the lego! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 Re: RE Apology accedted Irish. Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Whoppers System This weekend double is: Como V Juventus Stuttgart v M'gladbach Double is 2.16 with bet365. Again a 5 unit punt. I am currently back testing my system at the moment. Thanks to madmick's suggestions via email and Joe's football data I find myself having to work through over 30000 fixtures from the last few seasons. I have been shoving the results through my system of all this seasons stats and so far I can get about 70% success rate. This is not good quite enough so I will be reviewing what can be done. When I have a better formula I will put the many thousands of fixtures from past seasons through the system during the course of next week. I will then let you know the results (like anyone is interested though!). So far, no matter what I do the French Championnat is still very hard to predict though, I'm lucky if I can get 25% accuracy. Whopper73 P.S. Irish, please be patient and don't post irrelevant pics as this makes it longer to load in my browser (still use dial-up) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Whopper, there is plenty of interest in what you are doing I assure you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Re: Whoppers System you confident on Stuttgart after last night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Irish, the pic is irrelevant to this thread! If you want to post it then start a new topic in football banter! you confident on Stuttgart after last night? From my experience domestic league performance doesn't always have much relevance on European performance. or vice cersa. Take a look at Liverpool and Barcelona this season, in particular Barcelona! Both poor in their domestic league, but having a decent enough run in Europe (especially Barcelona!). It can and does work the other way round too. Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest toptips Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Just was observing the antics of Irish TW, at least he brings a lighter note to the forum! I think the pic should be undeleted, a bit of light humour never does anyone any harm. I'd say some of those in control here would make very unpopular schoolteachers. btw, like the idea, Whopper and there's no need to divulge your methods! Edit: Sorry toptips, only affiliated links are allowed, contact the board owner to become affiliated. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 22, 2003 Share Posted February 22, 2003 ha ha Just was observing the antics of Irish TW looking in the mirror again? ;) Still, nice to see that you have posted some tips. Think your sig above is wrong though? Best of luck with the weekend bets. If your 51/1 score double comes in you can have the last laugh... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 24, 2003 Share Posted February 24, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Well, we had winners this weekend, which was nice. So far for the system is running as follows. Starting Bank :100 Current Bank: 100.80 Bets placed: 2 doubles Am currently back testing as I write this and will give a deeper prediction analysis when that is complete. Will post any midweek predictions tomorrow (Tuesday). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Uhm Whopper... Not to be smart or anything (although clearly I am... :rollin ), but how can 2 doubles amount to 4 bets??????? Think about it........ if the bookies see a successful system and the poster has explained how he made his picks then they can simply take this into account and adjust the odds accordingly Sounds a little paranoid to me, Norfolk. I am guessing Whopper makes his picks based on form primarilly, which the bookies are not entirely blind to as things stand ;) I simply do not believe that bookies will read this forum and lower their odds on the teams simply because of this and that logic behind an acca. Remember - bookies odds go up and down with the amount of action on games, and there may still be some people out there who bet on the opposite result of Whopper... My apologies for taking up this topic in your thread Whopper - I realise you are not alone in not giving your reasons for your picks here, so this is not in any way meant to critizise you or anyone else specifically. But I do to a certain extent fail to see what unmotivated picks (to the reader) like these have to do in the systems forum. I am sure you have a system you are working from, and I wish you the best of luck with it, but what can be learned - by the readers AS WELL AS YOURSELF - by not discussing your strategy?? In the 2 systems I have going here atm, I have been more than happy to share my motivation behind the system in the hope that others here would comment and critisize my logic. The only feedback you can get when people do not know your strategy is a pad on the shoulder when your selections hold and encouragement to keep up your spirits when they don't. Fail to see how this can actually improve your selection criteria, which must be the ultimate point. Anyway - congrats on your win this weekend, and best of luck :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Should of been clearer. I mean t4 teams selected to bet upon. They were placed into 2 doubles. Hope thats clearer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System Still only 2 bets placed though, right? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System ok, edited my original post. Yep only 2 bets so far. Obviously a long way to go, but all systems have to start somewhere! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 systems and secrecy Da Hannanah I think there are different scenarios for posting systems here. Some people want to develop systems in the public eye as it were and reveal their methods, as you have done. Some do it by themselves or in small groups, as in the DIMB system. Some people want advice on risk management, staking, analysis etc and post here for feedback. Still others are proofing systems and just want to share the tips while they go. Others may even have systems they are totally happy with and want to give some free tips to all the great people here ;) (usual exceptions noted of course:rollin ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Whoppers System As I think I stated somewhere near the beginning, I am proofing my system. If I do it publically I am much less likely to lie to myself about how well it is doing. Also I can get any feedback and review it. Sometimes the feedback will be helpful, sometimes not. But I am always grateful for it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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