PompeyPunt Posted March 13, 2004 Author Share Posted March 13, 2004 Saturday Wise Man 2.50 Ayr f/c 11/8 Edmo Heights 2.30 Newcastle f/c 7/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 15, 2004 Author Share Posted March 15, 2004 Re: Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined A non-runner, and a nice priced 9/2 winner to bring some hope back to this drastically declining system. Updated Bank 12.51pts Profit -7.49pts Bets 196 W65/ L131 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 15, 2004 Author Share Posted March 15, 2004 Monday Just one for tommorow, Dunlea 2.40 Stratford f/c 10/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted March 15, 2004 Share Posted March 15, 2004 Re: Monday Nice winner Chief :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 16, 2004 Author Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Loser today, so bank down a point again Updated Bank 11.51pts Profit -8.49pts Bets 197 W65/ L132 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 16, 2004 Author Share Posted March 16, 2004 Tuesday Two for tommorow, Thisthatandtheother 2.40 Cheltenham f/c 11/4 Native Eire 4.10 Sedgefield f/c 4/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 17, 2004 Author Share Posted March 17, 2004 Re: Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined One loser and one non runner yesterday. Updated Bank 10.51pts Profit -9.49pts Bets 198 W65/ L133 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 18, 2004 Author Share Posted March 18, 2004 Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Ah poo, forgot to post up today :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 18, 2004 Author Share Posted March 18, 2004 Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Nothing for tommorow :( Anyone who looks at Sports-Punter will see the winner from today that i forgot to post ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 19, 2004 Author Share Posted March 19, 2004 Friday Nothing for tommorow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 20, 2004 Author Share Posted March 20, 2004 Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Elenas River 2.10 Ascot Superior Weapon 3.25 Newcastle Mr Dow Jones 5.15 Uttoxeter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 21, 2004 Author Share Posted March 21, 2004 Re: Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Uttoxeter abandoned, and one winner 11/4, and a second that was pipped on the nose. Updated Bank 12.26pts Profit -7.74pts Bets 200 W66/ L134 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 21, 2004 Author Share Posted March 21, 2004 200 Bets so far - Progress made? Well after 200 bets, i'm running at a few pts loss using Starting Prices, but 200 bets is still early days for a system like this, and also proves their must be something in this, as i knew pretty much nothing about horse racing up to this point, and i'm sure if i placed 200 bets on the horses normally, i would have been bankrupt along time by now. However, yes this system is running a loss using SP's, but using betfair, i have made a small, but healthy profit. Anyone who wants to know what kind of odds i get backing at betfair compared to SP's, can take a look at www.sports-punter.com and my record there, as i also now post the selections from this thread there. :) Hopefully we can make it another 200 bets, and that there is something in this for anyone who is taking some sort of interest :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 22, 2004 Author Share Posted March 22, 2004 Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Nothing for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 23, 2004 Author Share Posted March 23, 2004 Tuesday Nothing for tommorow either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted March 23, 2004 Share Posted March 23, 2004 Re: Tuesday PompeyPunt, You have changed the selection criteria a couple of times. Did you do this based on back-checking the entire database or only on the selections you had at that moment ? Have you considered using different selection criteria for different types of races ? If so , have you done any work on this back-checking ? If not, do you think that could make a difference ? Haven't done any work like this myself yet. Just asking off the top of my head. :D Eboman :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 24, 2004 Author Share Posted March 24, 2004 Re: Tuesday Hey Eboman, i think in general the selection criteria i have now finalised is as good as i can get. To be honest, there is more value in completely excluding some races (i.e Novice Handicap chases) than working a system for every type of race. I think there is the same sort of returns for the general selection critera for National Hunt racing, as there is for breaking it down to individual races. You could narrow that down by taking the Jocky information into account, but to be honest, that seems like hard work. I think i still have copies on the selection criteria for all different types of National Hunt race if you are interested, although i'm not completely sure about that. I've changed the criteria gradually, as simply at the start, i had no idea about horse racing whatsoever :o and as i gradually learnt, i could start to narrow down the chosen races etc. I don't think the National Hunt criteria will change, as that has been tried and tested, and in my eyes performed reasonalbly well. As for the normal flat races (Not all weather) I'm not really sure how that will do as i drew up the criteria a while back, but not had the chance to test it really, although in back testing it was out performing the National Hunt races, so i would expect no tweaking will be needed there either. I'm not to worried about on how the selections have performed in real-time for me, because as you probably know, over the years there have been ups and downs in Massey's ratings, and even from my results you can see that (at one stage i had in fact doubled the bank). But back to the selection criteria, i wouldn't bother narrowing it down to specific races, just completely cut out races that do bad instead, it levels out that way, you probably could improve slightly, but the time and effort would be to great. The way i have it is simple, you have a set selection criteria for National Hunt, Flat and All Weather, and it takes no more than 5 mins each day to work out what selections there are, or if none at all. Anyway, you have any ideas yourself on all this? Would be good to hear other opinions, as these Massey ratings i have been taken a good interest in, and will be keen to see how you get on :) I must admit i saw the returns for the place market was lower than the win market, and just dismissed it off hand, but going on the fact that is only going on SP Each way prices, i think what you've got going backing on the much more competitive place market at betfair, has definite scope for a good system. Anyway, sorry for the long winded reply :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 24, 2004 Author Share Posted March 24, 2004 Re: Wednesday Nowt for tommorow again :eek Not sure we've gone 3 days before with no bets :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted March 24, 2004 Share Posted March 24, 2004 the selection criteria Ok, lets see if i got this right : Adrian Massey has developed a rating system for horse racing. This is an automated system that identifies and values criteria and generates a rating. The rating indicates which horse in a race has most chance of winning. The actual criteria used and their value is known to Adrian Massey only. The system is available to all on his site and he has used a database to verify if the ratings can be used to make a profit. You have taken the rating system , as is, and then eliminated some of the selections in an attempt to increase the yield and profit and you have now reached a point that you can no longer see much room for improvement. ( at least not without doing some serious hard work ) Questions : Some of your selection criteria seem to be independend from the ratings like "No races on a Sunday". But are they really independend, or is it that the ratings are producing less profit when Sunday's are included ? These 3 selection criteria are completely dependend on the rating system. Is is accurate to say that the only way to improve is by looking at the rating system itself. Which in itself is not possible since Adrian is keeping that to himself. - At least a One(*) Star Rating By Massey - At least Rated 650+/560+ by Massey - Rated 40+/20+ Clear of second rated Horse. I see your point that different selection criteria for different races will not add to the overall profit. It's a lot of work and actually its probably useless since the rating system itself should take the types of races into account. So basically the only next step would be to create your own rating system, right ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 24, 2004 Author Share Posted March 24, 2004 Re: the selection criteria No races on a sunday, for example is used because the sunday results produced a significant drop in returns compared to the rest of the days of the week, for the selection criteria i used, of Adrian's rating's. Although having said that, tuesday for some reason seems to have the same sort of patterns, although not quite as bad results. I'm not doing anything special really, just using as you say, Adrain's ratings, and trying to make the most out of them as possible, as for instance you could follow 5***** in the past blindly, and of make a small profit, but i am just trying to up the yield as high as i can. I personally think that soon Adrain Massey's ratings will have gone past their shelf life before to long, due to the fact that people are seeing reductions in SP's because alot of people are now using his ratings for a guide, obviously bringing down the SP's. There will come a point when every man and his dog will be alerted to the possible rating's systems. I would say the only way to find out how good a Massey 'Based' system actually is, is give it 500-1000 real time bets, and see how it goes, which is what i at least intend to do with this. And your final point, yes the only way to improve i think would to be make a rating system of my own i guess, the only problem would be where the hell to start:eek Sorry if i have gone off the point again eboman :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 25, 2004 Author Share Posted March 25, 2004 Thursday No more yet again :( Although i notice the flat season looks like it's underway, so when they get some form, there will probably be a few decent picks ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted March 25, 2004 Share Posted March 25, 2004 Re: the selection criteria Thanks pompeyPunt, all clear to me now. yes the only way to improve i think would to be make a rating system of my own i guess, the only problem would be where the hell to start facing the same problem, I guess the beginning would be a good starting point :lol I think you can put in as much time as you want. It will be a quite a job to get started, you need a database, analyze the factors involved, assign importance, degree of influence, value and then somehow automate the whole process for speed. If i find the time i might have a crack at it myself, meanwhile lets put our confidence in Adrian. Good luck with this, hope you get back into profits soon. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 26, 2004 Author Share Posted March 26, 2004 Re: Friday This is getting silly, no selections again :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 27, 2004 Author Share Posted March 27, 2004 Saturday EL BANDITO 3.35 Newbury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 29, 2004 Author Share Posted March 29, 2004 Re: Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined El Bandito won at 7/2 Updated Bank 15.76pts Profit -4.24pts Bets 201 W67/ L134 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 29, 2004 Author Share Posted March 29, 2004 Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Nothing for Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 30, 2004 Author Share Posted March 30, 2004 Tuesday VALEUREUX 5.05 Sedgefield f/c 5/1 Price will start alot shorter than that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 31, 2004 Author Share Posted March 31, 2004 Re: Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined 2nd Today, so another point down. Updated Bank 14.76pts Profit -5.24pts Bets 202 W67/ L135 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted March 31, 2004 Author Share Posted March 31, 2004 Massey NH and Flat Selections Combined Nothing for Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted April 1, 2004 Author Share Posted April 1, 2004 Thursday INGLIS DREVER 5.30 Aintree f/c 13/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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