Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 15, 2004 Share Posted January 15, 2004 OK....I haven't waded through stats on this one yet, that will come this weekend. I would just like some opinions if possible. The idea, (which will have been tried before) is to pick a game where you are confident both the home and away team will score. I guess statistically we need few clean sheets and failures to score in the recent past for both sides. Bet large on the 2.5 market, with a cover on the 1-1 scoreline. My pick for the weekend would be Spurs v Liverpool. More based on gut feel than statistics. Odds with Betfair.... 2.5 2.06 100pts........206pts 90pts profit 1-1 7.6 16pts.........121pts 5pts profit If anyone has selection advice, or has used a similar idea before I would appreciate your input. Mocking, Banter, Ridicule also welcome.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 15, 2004 Share Posted January 15, 2004 +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Mmm, any need for 2 threads? :D :D :D :D But where are the mods???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Why 2 threads....? I wanted to edit the thread, but it didn't work....I know some people enjoy mocking if their (deliberate) are mistakes. Unfortunately, a second thread was created by my actions. We could perhaps run a "spot the difference" competition.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: Why 2 threads....? I've deleted the other one BBB. What makes you think this approach will be profitable? Good luck but I fear you will need to make your picks based on more than a gut feeling if you want to make a profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest medics Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 2.5 with 1-1 saver Hi BBB, I like the concept. Mug punters like myself need to devise some form of staking strategy or we find ourselves feeding the bookies with little chance to redress the debt. I would be keen to read associated stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Runar K Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: 2.5 with 1-1 saver Just remember that these two bets will take place in two different markets - if the 1-1 bet comes in, you won't be paying commission on £5, you will be paying commission on £105. And if your commission rate is 4.8% or higher, your current stakes will result in an overall loss if the match finishes 1-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 But where is the profit...? Norfolk, I am looking for games that I think will be +2.5. That is were the profit would come from. I will pick games where I think both sides will fail to keep a clean sheet. Hence the 1-1 cover. These games will not be picked on a gut feel, the Spurs v Liverpool game was just to use as an example. My method of selection will be based on the home teams last 5 home games, and the away teams 5 away games. A similar method could perhaps be to pick home bankers as +2.5, and have a 2-0 cover. I appreciate your comments. I haven't spent a decade formulating this plan, in fact it was during my lunch today at work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Punter66 Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Its something i have considered this season too BBB but have decided to give it a miss untill i have a full seasons stats. The stats below may be of some help though. Sorry they seem to be all over the place but i have copied them from a spread sheet and dont know how to straighten them up???? :o They are taken from the 188 EPL games played from the begining of the season untill the end of December. Runing 188 games % 0-0 24 12.7 1-0 14 7.4 0-1 15 7.9 1-1 15 7.9 2-0 13 6.9 0-2 9 4.7 Under 1.5 53 28.1 Over 1.5 135 71.8 2 goals 37 19.6 Under 2.5 90 47.8 Over 2.5 98 52.1 Homes 81 43 Draws 50 26.5 Aways 57 30.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy1 Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver To avoid playing in 2 separate markets and therefore reduce the comission you could just lay 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 and then lay 1-1 slightly so you would break even in that event :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Thats an interesting thought and it could work out a better value bet. Only problem I can see though is the liquidity for correct scores. I would imagine it would be possible to lay correct scores at something less than the fair price on big games, but it might be more difficult to get matched on the smaller games. Interesting info Runar. I'm surprised to see such a high percentage of 0-0s. I would have expected a lot more 1-0 and 1-1 scores Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 ... Runar, thanks for the stats. bcrazy, I appreciate the advice. I'll have a look at your suggestion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Punter66 Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Interesting info Runar. I'm surprised to see such a high percentage of 0-0s. I would have expected a lot more 1-0 and 1-1 scores Not sure if your refering to the stats i put up there Norfolk or Runars :lol but anyway i am surprised too, 0-0's, 1-0's and 1-1's are definately not in line with the past 10 year trends so far this season. Past ten years EPL (these stats were not compiled by me mind) 0-0 8.80% 1-0 11.20% 0-1 7.54% 1-1 12.46% 2-0 8.12% 0-2 4.06% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Yeah I was referring to your stats Punter :\ The 10 year stats are much nearer what I would have expected. Where you getting the stats from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver I guess statistically we need few clean sheets and failures to score in the recent past for both sides.Smells like Gambler's Fallacy a bit to me, unless you have good reasons for believing low scoring teams are ready for a score, e.g. the manager's given the side a bollocking, or their star striker is back. Would you bet red after 10 blacks simply because you thought one was due? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Joe, No, I wouldn't bet red after 10 blacks. I think you may have miss understood the sentence. "we need few clean sheets AND failures to score" I mean few of both. I probably should have written "few clean sheets and few failures to score", but I thought it made sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver oops, sorry, I seem to have misred what you said. My mind slipped in an "a" before few clean sheets, so naturally I thought of the GF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Punter66 Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 stats Somebody else put the ten year stats up previously in S+S Norfolk, possibly Danno 12X but i'm not sure. I started logging this seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Punter66, No problem. My English isn't the best in any case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver I also reply to the wrong person occasionally. Last reply intended for Joe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver I have decided on Derby v Gillingham for my first pick. .................................F....A....FTS...CS..>2.5 Derby Co. Last 5 Home...8...10....1......1......4 Gillingham Last 5 Away...9....8.....1......0......3 With betfair +2.5 @ 1.94 87pts 1-1 @ 7.6 13pts Let's see how it goes...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: +2.5...with a 1-1 saver Good luck BBB Are those prices before or after commission? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Commission The prices quoted are before commission Norfolk. I assume prices posted should be quoted with potential commission removed. I will endeavour to do so in future posts. I'm still learning the way of the PL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 18, 2004 Share Posted January 18, 2004 Derby 2 Gillingham 1 Well done BBB, first one in the bag. I see you got Spurs v Liverpool as well. Good luck with this. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 18, 2004 Share Posted January 18, 2004 Re: Derby 2 Gillingham 1 Kind words Mr Cash, kind words indeed. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]%......4pts Profit.......................64pts Nice to get off to a winning start. Let's see what next week brings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AnothrSpacecat Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 Re: Derby 2 Gillingham 1 theres more low scores this year because nobody can afford to get relegated, teams are taking less risks than they used to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 There seemed to be quite a few goals in Div 1 this weekend Space Man, Have you got any stats on this...? I had a look at the 4 divisions this season, each one was around 50/50 for the Over/Under market. Is it usually different to this? If so what is a more expected split..? Also, I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to say.... Do you think that the idea of backing +2.5 and 1-1, in games where you are confident that both teams will concede is a poor strategy? Hmsh... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: There seemed to be quite a few goals in Div 1 this weeke For Premier League, so far 49% under, 51% over. Last year 51% under, 49% over, year before that 53% under, 47% over. 2001 51% under, 49% over. More goals 2003/04 so far. Division 1 so far, 53% under, 47% over. Last year 49% under, 51% over. Year before that the same. 2001 57% under (!) and 43% over. So less goals this season than two previous, but not the one before. Division 2 so far, 50/50. Last year 53/47, year before that 50/50. 2001 51/49. Generally a few more goals this year than before. Division 3 so far, 50/50. Last year 51/49, year before that 53/47 and 2001 56/44. So a few more goals there as well. So generally what you're saying about less goals Spacecat is wrong.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 21, 2004 Share Posted January 21, 2004 Arsenal v Boro Would you consider this game for your strategy BBB? I think boro will conceed with their lack of leadership and experience at the back - no Southgate, Ehiogu or Cooper, but may score as they have been scoring recently, and will field an overall stronger team than Arsenal???? Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 21, 2004 Share Posted January 21, 2004 Re: Arsenal v Boro Mr Cash, As ever you make a strong case for your suggestion. However, I will be leaving this one alone tonight. I can see it finishing +2.5. Arsenal will want to win the round tonight, and Boro have all of a sudden started scoring and conceding. I shall bide my time for the fixture of choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 25, 2004 Share Posted January 25, 2004 I just can't stop myself..... The stats don't really back up this one, but stats aren't always right, are they...? I watched Liverpool against Spurs, and their defence looked decidedly shaky. I cannot see them keeping a clean sheet against Newcastle, with Dyer's pace, Shearer's experience and Robert's flair. Newcastle's defence is by no means water tight, and now Owen has a couple of games under his belt after returning from injury he must be due a goal. ..................................F....A....FTS...CS...>2.5 Liverpool Last 5 Home.....9....6......0......1......4 Newcastle Last 5 Away...2....7......3......2......1 With Betfair +2.5 @ 2.08....87pts 1-1 @ 7.6......13pts Prices before commision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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