fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 6.10 Maiden to open the card. John Gosden's debutant Floodlit is the forecast fav and with in form Ryan Moore on board, should be popular. With a short price expected I'm looking for an each-way bet though. 7 of the 14 that go to post have previous racecourse experience but only Prophetise (4/17 at Salisbury on Gd/frm ground) has placed before. The only two of those seven that has previous experience of the all-weather are H J L Dunlop's filly Key to Love and A P Jarvis' Athania. The former finished 6th of 10 here on her debut but was bumped at the start and outpaced. In the end she was beaten by just over six lengths. That race was on the 9th July, so hard to weight up the form as none of the five infront have raced since. The latter ran in that same raced and finished a neck back from Key of Love in 8th. She started slowly too and was outpaced in the rear as well. Athania runs from box 8 again tonight, whilst Key to Love is in stall 4 this time, was in 3 LTO. So if they were hampered by the draw that day, they would struggled again tonight. Manhattan Sunrise ran on the fibresand at Southwell but was well beaten and never dangerous. Plus, tackling polytrack for the first time here. Thewaytosanjose ran in the same Folkestone race as Prophetise but was well back in the field, although she was hampered on the rail and may have fared better with a clear run. Tiger Goddess was 5th of 9 on her Doncaster debut on Gd, Gd/Frm ground. The form of the race is working out well with 1st (twice), 2nd and 4th all winning subsequently and even the 3rd has ran well in defeat. The other plus for Tony Culhane's mount is that he has the pick of the draw in stall 14 and he is my each-way selection. As its not possible to assess the strength of the form of plenty of the other maidens of the other runners, Tiger Goddess may be the sensible bet. Sport Life tissue 12/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 6.40 Nursery handicap is the next race on the card. Daddy's Gift has a good draw and is a previous polytrack winner at Lingfield. He drops in grade here after a crack at a class 2 Newmarket handicap LTO off 77. He was btn 5.75 l and never dangerous, but now competes in a class 4 handicap here and can't be discounted coming from one of the most successful AW yards. Gassal ran well over CD LTO and was only headed inside the final furlong. He was btn by 1/2 length and running of the same mark here he has a chance (although up in grade tonight). Aegean Warning was 1.75 lengths back from Gassal in the same race and also runs off the same mark of 69, although he isn't as well drawn tonight. Misty Glade has experience of the polytrack (btn 1.25 lengths here by Lady Cottingham LTO in a maiden) but its hard to assess whether his rating his fair. Going back to a previous run at Southwell, he was only a neck behind Carmanjoe, and that rival has failed to win off 65 and 67 since, so perhaps the handicapped could have been a bit more lenient with Misty Glade (rated 69). So the two I'm backing are Daddy's Gift and Gassal, although don't know stakes until prices are available. Sport Life tissues 7/1 and 3/1 respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 7.15 Halsion Chancerlooks well handicapped given that he won off 84 at Lingfield in Feburary and is only 1 lb higher here. He drops in grade after a failed attempt at a class 3 handicap LTO, but he has been campaigned almost exclusively at Lingfield, so although he is proven on polytrack, not yet sure whether he is suited to a right handed track too. Expensive Art - goes well on the AW and only gone down by a hd and a nk on her last two tries over CD. Rating dropped after a few disappointing turf efforts, which bodes well as she is now only 2 lbs above previous winning AW mark. Honey Monster is a CD winner but is now 8 lbs higher than his last AW win. However, he did win in a class 3 race at Great Leighs on his last AW appearance so although he's up in the handicap, the fact he drops in grade means he must enter calculations. Dvinksy is well drawn and only went down by a neck off 75 over CD at this class 3 runs ago. Draw should enable him to hit the front early. Rabbit Fighter won twice over CD in December (in lesser races) and won on his last AW appearance at Wolv (at class 5, tackles class 4 here). Up 3 lbs from the day, but looks to be improving still as only went down by a sh at Haydock LTO off 71 in a class 4 handicap, even if it was on turf. Hard to pick between these five but maybe Dvinsky is worth another chance bearing in mind his handy draw. Sporting Life tissue 10/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 8.20 Resplendent Ace won over CD in January and has been running really well on the AW since with a 0.75 length 2nd over CD before another win here when dropped back to 11f. His last AW run was when he won off 67 so tonight’s mark off 70 doesn’t seem too excessive. 8.50 Vilna ran well over 10f here the other day in a better race than this and only went down by a head. He drops in grade so even though he’s up 2 lbs in the handicap he has strong claims. Still a maiden but after only 6 starts there could be better to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 Draw bias Based on every Kempton race in 2007 in which there were 8+ runners....... Last year Hughes, Moore, Spencer, Callan, Buick and Mongan were jockeys with a decent no. of wins. Trainers to note were Hannon, A. Balding, Shaw and Cole. Some other stats RE AW racing in general (calculated from results from all five AW courses).......... 63 % of 319 handicaps won by a horse from the top five in the weights (only races with 10 + runners were analysed). Horses within the price bracket of 5/2 to 8/1 accounted for 60 % of 319 handicap wins, 20 % were priced 9/4 or less and the remaining 20 % were 17/2+. In 100 AW maidens 53 % were won by favs, 83 % had previous racecourse experience, 84 % of winners came from first three in the betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmcandrew Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 8:50 - Ramprakash is back on the AW for the first time since winning at a similar distance at Lingfield. It's a much tougher race, but he may run well at a price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 Mr GARSTON 9.20 Kempton. 0.5 points each way. Looks to have a bit to find with the principals here, and although nthat's the case on bare form alone, I think they way the race will be run will suit this fella and he can make his big odds look good value late on. Hard to say he'll win this, but certainly has fair place prospects and so at a price I'll hope he gets the better of a battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 Agree think Mr Garston is interesting now dropped in trip. Would have a massive chance if close to his best. Managed to get a bit of 24 bout 15 mins ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 Resplendant Ace 1st 4/1 :nana Nice one fin!!! Cheers.I haven't done too bad tonight, an each way bet to nothing in the 6.10 and two winners in Dvinsky (11/2) and Resplendent Ace (got on at 7's before it got backed in). Covers losses for earlier in the week thats for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 7.15 Halsion Chancerlooks well handicapped given that he won off 84 at Lingfield in Feburary and is only 1 lb higher here. He drops in grade after a failed attempt at a class 3 handicap LTO, but he has been campaigned almost exclusively at Lingfield, so although he is proven on polytrack, not yet sure whether he is suited to a right handed track too. Expensive Art - goes well on the AW and only gone down by a hd and a nk on her last two tries over CD. Rating dropped after a few disappointing turf efforts, which bodes well as she is now only 2 lbs above previous winning AW mark. Honey Monster is a CD winner but is now 8 lbs higher than his last AW win. However, he did win in a class 3 race at Great Leighs on his last AW appearance so although he's up in the handicap, the fact he drops in grade means he must enter calculations. Dvinksy is well drawn and only went down by a neck off 75 over CD at this class 3 runs ago. Draw should enable him to hit the front early. Rabbit Fighter won twice over CD in December (in lesser races) and won on his last AW appearance at Wolv (at class 5, tackles class 4 here). Up 3 lbs from the day, but looks to be improving still as only went down by a sh at Haydock LTO off 71 in a class 4 handicap, even if it was on turf. Hard to pick between these five but maybe Dvinsky is worth another chance bearing in mind his handy draw. Sporting Life tissue 10/1 First five home. Wish I'd done the tricast now. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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