billy the punter Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 2.50 I monitored Tantris' maiden runs as I thought he be very interesting over middle distances when handicapping. Two fair runs on his first two starts over 7f shaping as further would suit. You can draw your own conclusions as to why this High Chaparral gelding was dropped to 5f for his final maiden start. He didn't show on his handicap debut but I thought he looked plotted out for his race LTO at Brighton. My internet was down so couldn't do a write up but I had a decent bet at double figures. He was backed down to 4/1 before drifting back to 6/1. Shane Kelly threw the race away IMO, he took it up far too early. He hit the front about 5 out, he went clear and looked the winner but was collared late on. It's almost impossible to win like that at Brighton. He looks sure to win a similar race of this sort of mark. This is probably slightly tougher than that and this is only 10f but I'm going to keep him on my side for the time being. I've took what I can at around 9 and above. Tantris 50% of stake EW Again not a massive bet for me as I believe that things were all in place LTO. When you miss your chance, it's not always easy to get compensation at this level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 SportHorse Racing Event3.20 Lingfield SelectionLady Dedlock Strength10/10 Date16/07/2008 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 4.60 (Back) ReasoningShown marked improvement since joining Jamie Poulton and won easily at Kempton two starts ago. Last time out, finished 2nd back on turf in a competitive race and had Mister Completely (whos run in this today) well behind. Still seems to be progressing and comes into this race with the best form on offer. Has to be the value at the price against Swingkeel who is unproven over the trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 SportHorse Racing Event3.50 Lingfield SelectionSterling Sound Strength10/10 Date16/07/2008 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 2.96 (Back) ReasoningThe horse to beat on form. Ran a cracking race first time out over 6 furlongs when narrowly going down by half a length. Stepped upto 7 furlongs last time and was leading a furlong out only to fade badly inside the final furlong. The drop back to 6 will obviously suit and he should take a bit of beating on the formbook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster5000 Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 2.20 Talayeb could win this opener if going 1 better on his 2nd last month, Sacred Flame needs improvement but not a drastic amount in this company and Jamie spencer on board could be a plus. Advice Talayeb 1 Point Win Sacred Flame 1 Point Win Or Each Way depending on price. 2.50 If the weight isnt too much for Mahadee the gelding should be up there at the finish, Landikhaya is 1 of my fancies to run a big race he is 4lbs down on his win 2 outings ago so should run a big race. Advice Mahadee 1 Point Win or 1 Point E/W depending on price. Landikhaya 1 Point E/W. 3.20 Foreign King could be a danger if his best form can be switched to the flat " A lively chance", Mister Completely looks a good option and price and is also 10lbs down on winning last year. Advice Foreign King 1 Point E/W Mister Completely 1 Point Win or 1 Point E/W. 3.50 Carina Nebula is the only horse in this bunch to run on the polytrack and could easily place on her 4th 2 weeks ago, Sterling Sound would be the biggest danger and should win this if taking to the track. Advice Carina Nebula 1 Point E/W Sterling Sound 1 Point Win. 4.20 Master of Arts should walk this on form and is nicely weighted. Advice Master Of Arts 1 Point Win. 4.50 A few in here i fancy Lord Deevert especially who is 5lbs down when winning at the start of the year, Minwir is another who is weighted to run a big race and is at a give away price, Libert Vallance is another with question marks but looks a improving sort. Advice Lord Deevert 1 Point E/W or 1 Point Win Liberty Valance 1 Point E/W or 1 Point Win depending on price. Minwir 1 Point E/W. (I have done these tips quickly so beware). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 16, 2008 Author Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 3.20 I think the market has this right and I cannot look beyond the first three in the betting, Swingkeel, Natural Action and LAdy Dedlock. I backed Swingkeel (as well as the 1-2) on his handicap debut but he really disappointed. He looked like a typical staying handicap prospect for the yard in his maidens. He ran a lot better LTO behind Judgethemoment at Sandown (2nd won NTO). He faces lesser opposition here and looks ready for the step up to 2m. Natural Action is frustrating. Was very unlucky on his penultimate start and does have ability if he wants to show it. Stable among the winners lately and are 6/16 with 3yos and over here. Lady Dedlock was impressive when beating the well handicapped (at the time) Salut Saint Cloud. We haven't seen much of her since and we know little about her - she is a danger due to that. Mister Completely is 10lb lower then when a distance 2nd to Highland Legacy last year but looks held by Lady Dedlock on her run LTO. Swingkeel 60% of stake 3.35 betfair Lady Dedlock 20% of stake 4.4 betfair Natural Action 20% of stake 5.1 betfair Shows evens with two savers, which I think is fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 2.50 Amicable Terms - lightly raced filly who has improved since going handicapping. Won two of her last three and has looked progressive to date. Will go on the ground and will see out the trip. Dropped 1 lb in the handicap after her 3rd of 8 at Yarm LTO, but she carried a penalty that day. Should still be able to score here off 62 given that she beat Wilkandoo at Redcar and that rival followed up to win off 68 NTO. 13/2 Sport Bet. 3.50 This race is on the polytrack and only interested in the Hannon and Tregoning Runners. Both have previous racecourse experience. Sterling Sound went well here on her debut (btn neck) (winner ran in a group race NTO). Raise All In was beaten by a useful type on her debut (winner won listed race NTO). I'm backing whichever goes off as fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 Billy well done with Swinkeel and Tipster nice win for you in the maiden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Re: Lingfield 16/07/08 Nice wins in here, including 4 for tipster..... :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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