Ayr | Monday 14th July

[Sheerluck Holmes]

:ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July 3.40 Nine line up for the class 4 fillies event and an each way chance is taken on the top weight SWEET PICKLE. Generally saves best work for the AW but had been doign reasonably well if we ignore LTO on the turf (split from the pack, ran in a pair) and had recorded a decent 4th in class 2 event at Epsom inher penultimate start. Does look high enough in the weights but ground and trip perfect and trainer in decent nick (2 winners from last 7) and comes up all the way from Surrey for this. SWEET PICKLE E/W

[billy the punter]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July A terrible card at Ayr. I may have a rare laying day. Think Johnston's Suroor is short for what it's done, if there is money for the Dods, or more importantly the Smart debutant then I look to lay Suroor. Think Holiday Cocktail was flattered by his win LTO - he got a much better ride than most of his rivals. Not unusual for apprentice race winners. Currently trading under 2/1. I wouldn't back a David Barker horse with snide money at the moment and his Dorn Dancer is vying for favouristism at the moment. Will make decision tomorrow but they are the three I have in my mind to lay. I'm not a layer so I'd go and have a trixie on those three if I were you! :lol One fav I WOULDN'T lay is Cappucci who looks to be on the upgrade, will probably take the odds on as the handicap he won LTO is working out well. Looked to be given a fair mark anyway based on maiden form and should follow up off the new mark.

[BillyHills]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July Billy, I see our mate Mr Nolan has another 150/1 shot running today, he also has his stable star in the same race, Seafield Towers rated 45 (2.10).

[fintron]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

Billy' date=' I see our mate Mr Nolan has another 150/1 shot running today, he also has his stable star in the same race, Seafield Towers rated 45 (2.10).[/quote'] There is a horse rated 38 in there too, one of Anne Stokell's. What are people's opinions on Anne Stokell? I was listening to a radio programme once, may have been Sporting Life, and they were saying that her horses would have won far more races had she not been in the saddle. Don't the owners of her horses get hacked off that she rides them all, or is she really wealthy and the owner of them all herself??

[billy the punter]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July :loon - He must be beating everything at home!

[billy the punter]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

There is a horse rated 38 in there too' date=' one of Anne Stokell's. What are people's opinions on Anne Stokell? I was listening to a radio programme once, may have been Sporting Life, and they were saying that her horses would have won far more races had she not been in the saddle. Don't the owners of her horses get hacked off that she rides them all, or is she really wealthy and the owner of them all herself??[/quote'] She owns them. Have no idea if she is reallly wealthy. Her horses don't really cost a lot. The owning wouldn't cost a lot in her case, running the yard and having hardly any winners is what would drain her funds I would imagine. If I was her, or most am. riders I simply wouldn't embarrass myself and ride in public. I wanted to be a footballer as a kid, I wasn't good enough - deal with it. The most high-profile Anne Stokell-type case was Spartan Missile in the Grand National. "Champions" would've never been made.

[fintron]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July 4.10 Ayr Ninefineirishmen - won a maiden race here over 7f LTO and although the form of that race doesn't look spectacular - 2nd (August Gale) was well beaten off 74 on handicap debut NTO, the form of his Pontefract second over this trip in May offers hope. He was only a neck behind Premier Danseur that day, with Mark Johnston's horse rated 79 (Ninefineirishmen runs off 75 here). Premier Danseur has since been put up to 84 although disappointed NTO when upped in class. The form of Capucci's Newbury 5th looks good, even if Yahwudhee blotted it slightly yesterday, and he looks the one to beat, but at 8/13 for John Gosden's horse I'm going each way on Ninefineirishmen at 11/1 (Sporting Bet) instead.

[fintron]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July 4.40 Ayr No Grouse (9/1 Blue Sq) - won over this trip at Musselburgh and has had recent success after scoring over 6f at Hamilton two runs ago off 53. He was a 3.5 length 3/7 LTO at Chester but there are many reasons why that run can be excused - firstly, he was carrying a penalty and was up in grade (that was class 4, drops back to class 6 here), the run came on Gd, Gd/Sft ground - all of his wins have come on faster ground), and he was poorly drawn at a course where there is a very strong draw bias. Now 8 lbs higher than his last winning mark but he has won off higher on the AW. The recent Hamilton win proves Eric Alston's horse is no spent force and dropping down two classes here he could be worth a punt.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

4.10 Ayr Ninefineirishmen - won a maiden race here over 7f LTO and although the form of that race doesn't look spectacular - 2nd (August Gale) was well beaten off 74 on handicap debut NTO, the form of his Pontefract second over this trip in May offers hope. He was only a neck behind Premier Danseur that day, with Mark Johnston's horse rated 79 (Ninefineirishmen runs off 75 here). Premier Danseur has since been put up to 84 although disappointed NTO when upped in class. The form of Capucci's Newbury 5th looks good, even if Yahwudhee blotted it slightly yesterday, and he looks the one to beat, but at 8/13 for John Gosden's horse I'm going each way on Ninefineirishmen at 11/1 (Sporting Bet) instead.

The 5th to Aqaalm is good form fin yes, but so is his handicap win LTO, the 3rd won a Sandown handicap NTO, the 5th won a Windsor handicap NTO, the 6th won a Lingfield handicap NTO. This isn't against your bet, I just haven't got time to do a proper write-up. I like his chances but so would many, is priced accordingly like you say. :ok

[Tipster5000]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

2.10 Mormeatric has a great chance in the opener and is 4lbs down when winning in class 4 event 2 years back, Welcome Approach has good old form and could come back to this form at a handy weight, Percy Douglas could be worth a small E/W punt but would need to improve markedly. Advice Mormeatric 1 Point Win Welcome Approach 1 Point E/W Percy Douglas 0.5 Point E/W. 2.40 Surour isnt the most straightforward but could be a improver and wouldnt need to improve that much, Bellas Story could be a good E/W option and is nicely weighted. Advice Surour 1 Point Win Bellas Story 1 Point E/W. 3.10 Polish Corridor could come back to form and has a ideal time to do this, Holiday Cocktail should be well supported and has a 7lbs claimer so good chance here to get a double. Advice Holiday Cocktail 1 point Win Polish Corridor 1 Point E/W. 3.40 Very Open event and value could be the key and Katie Boo is my selection as she has been running with some good company. Advice Katie Boo 1 Point E/W. 4.10 Capucci should be popular on bare form and could be a banker for the day has to deal with top weight but shouldnt be a problem. Advice Capucci 1 point Win. 4.40 Anthemion has some good form and also at the foot of the weights but isnt straight forward but neither are the rest so could be the safest bet, Royal Citadel could place if improving on his previous poor form. Advice Anthemion 1 Point Win or 1 Point E/W depending on price? Royal Citadel 0.5 Point E/W. 5.10 Not much takes my fancy here and Aleatricis looks the best option after the geldings win 2 weeks ago. Advice Aleatricis 1 Point Win.

[fintron]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July I agree Billy, he is clearly the one to beat and I failed to mention his previous handicap performance. :spank It's just I don't like to back odds on horses in handicaps and would prefer to look elsewhere for an each way alternative. On the subject of a SP's and handicaps, I've been busy doing a bit of research. Admittedly, its all done on AW racing and thats kinda a seperate entity to turf racing isn't it, but I'd be interested to see whether the same applies to turf racing... I've looked at 200 handicaps at the minute and the prices of winners are roughly as follows: Odds on up to 9/4: 14 % winners 5/2 to 8/1: 58 % winners 17/2+: 28 % winners The most frequent prices of winners were 7/2 (8.2 % of total winners), 8/1 (7.7 %) and 16/1 (6.7 %). I'm going to do a bit of a report when I've done and will post up anything interesting on my thread.

[fintron]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

Ninefineirishmen - won a maiden race here over 7f LTO and although the form of that race doesn't look spectacular - 2nd (August Gale) was well beaten off 74 on handicap debut NTO, the form of his Pontefract second over this trip in May offers hope. He was only a neck behind Premier Danseur that day, with Mark Johnston's horse rated 79 (Ninefineirishmen runs off 75 here). Premier Danseur has since been put up to 84 although disappointed NTO when upped in class. The form of Capucci's Newbury 5th looks good, even if Yahwudhee blotted it slightly yesterday, and he looks the one to beat, but at 8/13 for John Gosden's horse I'm going each way on Ninefineirishmen at 11/1 (Sporting Bet) instead.

4.40 Ayr No Grouse (9/1 Blue Sq) - won over this trip at Musselburgh and has had recent success after scoring over 6f at Hamilton two runs ago off 53. He was a 3.5 length 3/7 LTO at Chester but there are many reasons why that run can be excused - firstly, he was carrying a penalty and was up in grade (that was class 4, drops back to class 6 here), the run came on Gd, Gd/Sft ground - all of his wins have come on faster ground), and he was poorly drawn at a course where there is a very strong draw bias. Now 8 lbs higher than his last winning mark but he has won off higher on the AW. The recent Hamilton win proves Eric Alston's horse is no spent force and dropping down two classes here he could be worth a punt.

No Grouse backed into 8/1 and just won :nana Managed to get my other one placed too so not a bad day so far :)

[fintron]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

Would just like to say well done to Tipster and Fintron today for some great tips. Keep up the good work!!! :)

Cheers. well done Tipster for Suruor too :clap

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July Well done lads, on a tough day!

[BillyHills]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July Nolans finished 10th and 11th Stokell's finished 12th and last. Enough said.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ayr | Monday 14th July

A terrible card at Ayr. I may have a rare laying day. Think Johnston's Suroor is short for what it's done, if there is money for the Dods, or more importantly the Smart debutant then I look to lay Suroor. Think Holiday Cocktail was flattered by his win LTO - he got a much better ride than most of his rivals. Not unusual for apprentice race winners. Currently trading under 2/1. I wouldn't back a David Barker horse with snide money at the moment and his Dorn Dancer is vying for favouristism at the moment. Will make decision tomorrow but they are the three I have in my mind to lay. I'm not a layer so I'd go and have a trixie on those three if I were you! :lol One fav I WOULDN'T lay is Cappucci who looks to be on the upgrade, will probably take the odds on as the handicap he won LTO is working out well. Looked to be given a fair mark anyway based on maiden form and should follow up off the new mark.

There was no money for the Dods or Smart so didn't lay Suroor thankfully. Anyway I was talking about the price at time of writing which was 13/8, he was 3/1 at the off - never a lay at that price. Holiday Cocktail was beaten at 5/4 and Dorn Dancer beaten at 4/1. :nana Didn't back Capppucci as I missed the price, got him wrong. Got a bit lucky I feel today.