Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

Madness Steeleworks ***BUSTED!!***

madnesstiger

By madnesstiger
in Glory Hunters

 Share

Recommended Posts

madnesstiger

madnesstiger

Posted
Posted

MADNESS STEELEWORKS Rather than put all my eggs in one basket, I've decided to split my latest off-forum profits into 2 new GH's rather than just the one. MadnessDaily 6 has just been published with a starting bank of £100. The other £100 I have to use will go into funding this little venture! Background I have read and re-read Paul Steele's book 'Profitable Football Betting' a number of times over the past few years. Amongst other articles, he analyses 15 different ratings systems for predicting football matches. I have touched on a few of these ideas in the past, although nothing of real importance. However, the other day I had a little spare time on my hands and decided to put together a little 'calculator' using MS Excel which combines the ideas of 6 of Paul Steele's more successful ratings systems in the book, as well as my own minor alterations, to give each match a rating. The Ratings The calculator gives each match a rating of between 1 and 6.

  • A rating of <2.5 predicts a match as an AWAY WIN
  • A rating of between 2.5 and 3.5 predicts a match as DRAW/AWAY WIN
  • A rating of between 3.5 and 4.5 predicts a match as DRAW/HOME WIN
  • A rating of >4.5 predicts a match as a HOME WIN

After testing the calculator on a handful of matches over the past few nights, it has acheived a 100% strike-rate. With this in mind, I have decided to create this GH to measure just how successful this thing can be. Staking After plenty of consideration in this department, I am going to apply a risker, more GH-oriented version of the 'Maria Laying System'. Google it for more details, but to summarize, here's how I will work it in this GH: LAY bets:

  • Odds 1.01 - 3.50 : Lay 3.0% of total bank
  • Odds 3.55 - 7.40 : Lay 1.8% of total bank
  • Odds 7.50 - 11.0 : Lay 1.2% of total bank
BACK bets:
  • Odds 1.10 - 1.15 : Back 12.0% of total bank
  • Odds 1.16 - 1.38 : Back 11.5% of total bank
  • Odds 1.39 - 2.00 : Back 7.5% of total bank

OTHER INFO:

  • % OF BANK RECALCULATED DAILY IF 'NEW HIGH' IS REACHED.
  • % OF BANK RECALCULATED IF BANKROLL IS REDUCED BY 35% OF ORIGINAL BANKROLL.

Although the calculator simply predicts the 1X2 outcome of a match, I may use the findings to place bets on related markets, such as 'Correct Score', 'HT/FT', 'Half-Time' etc. I am not expecting miracles from this GH, and have therefore not set any financial targets. I will appreciate any feedback throughout, and because of the potentially very risky staking strategy, I am just going to work this GH as a bit of short-term fun, with the small chance of great returns! MT :ok [As a sidenote, I may take the ratings from the calculator's results into consideration when deciding on picks for my other current MadnessDaily GH.]

Link to comment
Share on other sites
madnesstiger

madnesstiger

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Madness Steeleworks Not stopping, just checking the results from earlier... 3 winners from 4 picks ain't too bad. Although I should really have LAYED Halmstad as opposed to BACKING the Kalmar win, which would've given a 100% start. Never mind, only about £1 down from the first few results. Will continue tomorrow! MT:ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites
madnesstiger

madnesstiger

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Madness Steeleworks FT CSKA 0:2 DINAMO MOSCOW :$ *** Was watching the F1 race whilst this was taking place, and had time to think over this staking plan as it is. As a result, I have (again) decided to ditch this staking plan, in favour of the one used in the 'MadnessDaily 6' GH.

1 winner will be classed as 4.8% profit (5% profit, minus 5% commission). i.e. full bank wins at back odds of 1.05 = equivalent of 1 winner i.e. full bank wins at back odds of 1.22 = equivalent of 4 winners After scribbling down a number of strategies, here's how I've decided to play this one in terms of strategy and banking:
  • START WITH £100
  • FIND INITIAL 30 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£400
  • BANK £100 (PAYS FOR 1 MORE ATTEMPT). NEW BANK = £300
  • FIND ANOTHER 30 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£1200
  • BANK £200 (PAYS FOR 2 MORE ATTEMPTS). NEW BANK = £1000
  • FIND ANOTHER 30 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£4000
  • BANK £700 (PAYS FOR 7 MORE ATTEMPTS). NEW BANK = £3300
  • FIND ANOTHER 15 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£6600
  • BANK £500 (PAYS FOR 5 MORE ATTEMPTS). NEW BANK = £6100
  • FIND ANOTHER 8 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£8800
  • ADDED TO THE £1500 BANKED, THE JACKPOT OF £10K IS REACHED!
To summarize then;
  • 0-29 WINNERS = BUST!
  • 30-59 WINNERS = £100 BANKED, PAYS FOR 1 MORE ATTEMPT
  • 60-89 WINNERS = £300 BANKED, PAYS FOR 3 MORE ATTEMPTS
  • 90-104 WINNERS = £1000 BANKED, PAYS FOR 10 MORE ATTEMPTS
  • 105-112 WINNERS = £1500 BANKED, PAYS FOR 15 MORE ATTEMPTS
  • 113 WINNERS = £10,000 JACKPOT!

However, I will still use the 'Steeleworks' calculator to determine each bet. Rather than just lay the weaker team (from the rating obtained), I will use the rating to pick an even more unseeable selection, such as a 'Correct Score', 'HT/FT', etc. So, in effect, I guess I will have 2 similar threads going side-by-side, although this one will purely rely on the ratings obtained from the calculator. :hope *** To get the bankroll back upto a £100 starting bank, I found an in-play bet in the F1 with the remaining bank, as shown, with 6 laps remaining: Formula 1 British GP / Safety Car? / No Back @ 1.10 STAKE £14.22 WON £1.42 1.07 STAKE £50.00 WON £3.70 1.06 STAKE £29.44 WON £1.77 MINUS COMMISSION OF £0.33 = NEW BANK OF £100.22 *** Back to square 1 now! BET 01 on the way... :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
madnesstiger

madnesstiger

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Madness Steeleworks

The Stephen Hawking of GH doesnt get your threads at all mate ' date=' all the best though :beer[/quote'] :lol You're not gonna let that one die are ya!! *** Basically this GH is now a 100% all-in per bet system. The football prediction calculator I've created gives a rating between 1 and 6 per match. The lower the rating, the more likely an away win, and vice-versa. Say, for example, a match produces a prediction rating of 4.7 (therefore predicting a home win), my next bet could be a LAY of '0-1 Correct Score' at odds of ~15.0 (equiv. BACK odds 1.07), which would fit in nicely with the MadnessDaily-style staking system. Using the calculator is basically a foundation on which to back-up my reasoning for each bet.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Winner4Me

Winner4Me

Posted
Posted

Re: Madness Steeleworks

BET01
DATEBETMARKETSW RAT.SELECTIONB/LODDSLIABILITY
06-Jul-081Lok. Moscow v Amkar3.7FT score 3:1L21.00£ 100.00
The rating of 3.7 indicates a narrow home win or a draw. :hope
Looking good mate moscow 0-1 Amkar 90 min's. :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites
madnesstiger

madnesstiger

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Madness Steeleworks FT LOKOMOTIV 0:1 AKMAR :) Starting to think it was a good idea by quitting the initial staking system! *** Off to Brazil next, and to Sao Paulo. Match prediction rating of 5 is the highest I've had so far, indicating a home win. Also, with an expectation of OVER 2.5 goals, I've gone for the following...

DATEBETMARKETSW RAT.SELECTIONB/LODDSLIABILITY W/LRETURNS NEW BANK
06-Jul-082Sao Paulo v Ipatinga5.0FT score 1:1L12.00£ 104.94 £ 0.03
:hope
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...