AFL Rd. 14.

[TazaD]

Was about to jump on and seek some opinions on Port...they opened on the exact number I had in mind (+33.5)... ...had a few pros and cons swirling in my mind...not least of the cons being Port are complete rubbish! But, seems they've come in a point or 2 now anyway, so mind has been made up. I love it when I don't have to think. :ok On St. Kilda +11.5 tho. Think this one goes down to the wire either way. Last 4 games Kangaroos have THE worst performing midfield!! Worse than Port, worse than Melbourne even...-16 I50's...allowing 58, gaining only 42. Terrible. They've gotten by by being very efficient up forward, but Saints D is pretty good...5th best overall, and 4th best last 4 games. The main thing is their horrible travelling record tho...haven't even been in the hunt on a 'true' road game this season, and only beat a horrible West Coast team by 6 points @ the Gold Coast this year, with 4 LESS I50's! Saints not the best travellers in the world either, but in what looks like it will be a tight, low scoring game, nearly 2 goals looks pretty appealing. Oh, Kangaroos haven't won a game by 7 points in their last 9 games.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. It's slim pickings by the looks of things this weekend with clear cut favourites set to dominate, and poorly performed challengers for the top 8 out to spoil one another. The Eagles come to Melbourne again and face another uphill battle. They've lost patience with experienced under performers and have lost key personnel through injury. The Hawks copped their right whack last week and didn't give North enough respect. Their team is better for having Croad and Crawford back, but still have major issues with their run and carry through the middle. Their superior skills should give them the edge, but it will be by no means a blowout. It looks like a lovely night for football. September football is on the line at the MCG on Saturday with the Blues and Tigers doing battle. Both have had recent wins over Port in Adelaide, but Carlton weren't good against Essendon last week. Judd looks like he'll miss the game which puts pressure on Murphy, Gibbs and Stevens to perform. The Tigers will welcome back Thursfield to match up on Fevola and has a decent record on him as well. I think Richmond have too much firepower for Carlton and should win. North were back to their best last week and a repeat of that should have them winning this. However, they have struggled all season for consistency and the difference between their best and worse is more noticable this season. I can't read the Saints at all. They are hanging in there and haven't played great football at any stage this season. Their key forwards aren't reliable and look only capable of kicking 12 or 13 goals. Mark Williams has put the cue in the rack, and is going to test his youth for the remainder of the season. They have a good record in Darwin, but they don't have the resources to match the Bulldogs here. The Dogs had to dig deep last week to get over the line, but they'll have a big win here to grab top spot for the week. The Lions welcome back Bradshaw and Johnstone to bolster their lineup against Demons. They struggled to overcome the Crows last week, but got there in the end. Melbourne are a typical bottom side. They are able to match a good team for two quarters, but fall away in the other two. The same will apply on Sunday. The Dockers need to knock off pretenders like Essendon to get some credibility in the last half of the season. There must be a doubt on McPharlin lining up for the Dockers. The whole game might depend on whether he plays or not. Getting ahead of the Eagles on the table must be some motivation for the Dockers to win, or are they in tank mode? Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Brisbane 3 - W.Bulldogs 4 - Hawthorn 5 - Richmond, Melbourne, Fremantle, Essendon, Carlton 6 - North Melbourne 8 - West Coast, St.Kilda, Port Adelaide. Predictor. Hawthorn 126 v West Coast 74 Richmond 111 v Carlton 92 North 85 v St Kilda 87 W.Bulldogs 115 v Port Adelaide 81 Melbourne 78 v Brisbane 110 Fremantle 93 v Essendon 77 Best Bets. Hawthorn MARGIN (1-39) North LINE (-7.5) Good luck with your punting this weekend.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Can't find anything thus far but like the look of both games next week. I don't want to be throwing the cat among the pigeons unnecessarily but will J.Brown play? He has carried something the last couple and with a bye this week they may as well not run him going into the break. I was right with my suspicions about T.Johnstone last week. Some -10.5 Freo would do me but looks less than likely.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Bit surprised no-one has mentioned the game today. I was a bit late on Monday getting my act together, so looked at the odds before I did my numbers, which I generlly don't like to do... ...but unsurprisingly, Carlton/Richmond 1.90 each. Did my stuff, unsurprisingly the game looks like a toss-up...by the time I check the odds again an hour later the Blues are out to 2.25! Judd out...and maybe a slight whisper of Fev being in doubt (which would kill the contest for sure!)...but nothing being substantiated in that area. There was nothing in the first game this season...same shots, 4 clearances, 2 I50's and a single contested possession between them. 2 recent common games (v. Crows and @ Port) have both been in Carlton's favour stat-wise...Richmond yet to win a game v. a team above them on the ladder... Just can't see how Judd being out suddenly makes the Tiges 1.60 shots? :unsure

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. 2.50 now for Carlton! Almost have to get on board just for the principle of the matter... St. Kilda v. Kangas under 189.5 loks too high. Both teams really struggle to score when travelling. Saints 61, 95 & 67 on the road, Kangas 74, 89 (here), 98 and 67. Low scoring venue, with 3 of the 4 recent games there going under this number, and the last 2 meetings (Dome 2006, 2007) were snorers at 131 and 138!! Lyon showed by dropping Milne and Dal Santo last week how he wants this Saints team to play...as a result, their last 4 have been under this amount @ 167...and last game was a huge defensive struggle @ 122!! Will be tough in close and numbers behind the ball everywhere I suspect.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. That StKilda vs Roos under interests me. Which betting site stakes that? I can't seem to find it on my regular ones.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Forgot which one he's at but look at Betfair, Centrebet, Eskander, Hurley, TAB, Gamebookers, Global?, Sportingbet?, sportsbet? and of course, the almighty Bwin. Hope you took that one Taza? I was a little selfish, looking for 2.60 or so, so wasn't on. Two faves of dodgy variety beaten the last two weeks (Port and Rich) and I'm just square for it. :\ :spank

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Which game are we all watching tonight? Bit hard to bet in-play when on half hour delay so I'll be watching the Darwin game. Besides, no Walls or Blight on 501 :D. Also had enough of Swartz pea brain special comments last night :puke. No depth of thought whatsoever and not surprisingly that was also how he played the game.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. I got that number (for Sports-Punter purposes) at the almighty (indeed! :D) Bwin... ...but 185.5 @ Centrebet. Betfair have a standard 185.5 total, but was only 1.77 for the under when I took it...haven't looked since. Global and Betstar also do totals. :ok Yeah mate...if there's one thing you have rubbed off on me (erm... :unsure) is that a) Don't trust your ISP...and b) Take the value when it's there ;) Scarily enough...I actually really enjoyed last nights commentary (as a total package)...thought it was one of the best of the season. Crap game, so they took it upon themselves to 'entertain'...even Bruce was in vintage form...(vintage in a good way :D) The Ox does let himself down occassionally by trying to be serious, but I'm actually starting to like the way he often sets himself up to be the butt of a Commetti joke... ...I mean, he does it on purpose, right?! :lol He did actually make me laugh at one point with the wife/small things conversation! Definately the new Dermott. :ok Oh...move to Tassie ;) (No delayed games down here boys...oh, except for one Sunday game, which just happened to be a Doggies game when the inexplicably showed Super Cars from New Zealand until 3 o'clock!! wtf??! :eek )

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. :lol I don't mind it when plays up a bit. Just his special comments on the game itself.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Well, I figured that's why Buckley is there as well...him as the man with the comments, and Ox as the dopey side-kick! :D Well, I'm on the same page as the books this week anyway...whatever that means! Nailed the Port opening line, and now, jotted on a bit of paper, says Freo/Ess under 200. Freo play a pretty good defensive game at home...combined with the inevitable tempo stuff if they ever get infront!...av. just 95 I50's per game @ Subi, and only once have they topped 98...remarkably v. the Eagles. :\ And, in their last 4 games they've allowed just 42 per game, gaining 48. Essendon have been much better lately too, allowing 53, down from 61! Freo haven't topped 187 in their last 5...bit of rain about...and I can't possibly expect another last quarter like last week! Still got a little time to think about it (plus wait for another line or 2)...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Worthy of a GF the way that was played out, except if a Bris supporter. Isn't Cam Bruce quality! Don't know why Melb supporters are always so hard on him - I guess because they expect the three from him every week. Miller turned the corner in a big way! Backed Melb in run, layed off, got a little on again - a small profit at least, anyway.

[funkthis]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Cam Bruce is a mediocre midfielder. Wankers like Robert Walls and Sheehan were pumping him up 3 or 4 years ago saying he's one of the best midfielders in the comp. Call me crazy but he's as soft as butter, he wouldn't even know what a hard-ball-get looks like. Usually a great user of the footy when he has it, he reminds me of Nick Dal Santo; loaded with skill but don't have the worth ethic to make the most of it. Twas a great game to watch though, I thought Brisbane were well and truly home. I'm on the under 201.5 at Centrebet for the Freo Vs Essendon match

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. He certainly wasn't mediocre :loon today! We know he's no bottom of the pack hard man but I certainly don't see him as a pure outside player. If there's a contest to be won he usually wins it, with his pure quality alone. If he was ever looking for a move I doubt any of fifteen other clubs would be agreeing he's mediocre :loon as a midfielder. Got to remember he's had injury problems since the days he was a Brownlow fave and certainly that's been a problem for him leading into this season.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. ... few players kick the goal he got late but he nails that one every time :clap. Goodes out and, dare I say, he's their best player. Collingwood will have set themselves for this after being the hunted lately and dropping a couple. I rate them highly at their best. Already got something layed Sydney at 1.50 and not seeing why the 2.75 isn't big overs (which I suspect will shorten before mid-week). Crows a sneaky chance IMO but probably looking for at least 5.50 to back them. McLeod out of course.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Dead-set with funkthis here...Cameron Bruce is one of the biggest, most useless, show ponies in football. I watch more than my fair share of those Melbourne losers running around due to the GF's (ever decreasing!) infactuation with them...and he's soft as "I can't believe it's not butter", and continually fails to nail that goal every time! :$ He's one player...(actually 2...Green is the same!) who persist in kicking the ball 'around the corner' as it were, when they could most times, easily straighten up for a 'normal' shot. Seriously, would you have put him in the top 5 on the ground? Green was fantastic...loose, but did the job. Brave at times. Wheatley...well, a Bruce clone I guess, but far more damaging with it. Miller...key target all day. Effectively won them the game. Luke Power was just about the BOG Brown was, well, Brown! In relation to Melbourne he goes alright...and I do agree that getting the hard ball, just sometimes isn't what a player needs to do (Nathan Eagleton step on down! :lol)...but yeah, simply should be more influencial with the talent he has. (How's that for a diplomatic ending? ;) ) ...oh, and on a side note, I've actually had a night on the fizz with him and Brad Green down here in Launny. Green was great. Really nice bloke. Bruce was too, don't get me wrong!...but got a little tipsy a little quicker (fitter maybe? :lol) and was more interested in the local, ahem, talent? :unsure :cheers Anyway... ...agree that Collingwood have to be a chance, but they have been so bad in their last 4 it's tough for me to get on... Take out the Geelong result and we've got a tiny win v. Melbourne, a big loss to Carlton and a expected close game v. the Doggies...Sydney really haven't put a step wrong form-wise... ...Venue and H2H is huge for the Pies...but no Rocca hurts...Goodes out of course...could look forward to an under, but they gave up 23 shots to WC (even in a big win), 30 to Melbourne and 34 to the Blues??!! Nasty!! Crows more than a sneaky one...will be on the +points...what have Geelong done? Thumped the 2 worst sides in the comp last 2. They've played 3 teams in the top 8...one smacking by Collingwood, 2 wins (both by 42!) v. the Saints in the Dome that was stat-wise very even, and a late rally at home v. Swans who are crap away. Won just 1 of last 10 @ AAMI by more than 10...last 2 wins by 7 & 9 both as favs, and a loss in 2004 as 1.55 favs... Crows have lost just 1 of last 10 at home, and that was by 4 points to Hawthorn this year. I suspect the Crows home D will hurt the Cats' suspect forward line enough to at leat keep this close. Geez...looking at 4+ goals?! :eek

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Didn't rate him in the top few on the ground, actually. Yeah, sure he may have had a couple of lean years after the injury ;);) (and same this year after injury restricted pre-season ;);)) but more that it's good to see him getting back to form of late and people can knock him all they want for this or for that but the fact is as he showed on Sunday if there was a contest he wins it and he's the one player you'd want to be snapping that shot late. Blinkers off is a good way to watch things sometimes. BTW, he's not one of my favourite players, actually (too soft). Brock McLean would get my vote at Melbourne ... and not Colin Sylvia - "most useless, show ponies". Still hasn't got that car.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14.

...agree that Collingwood have to be a chance, but they have been so bad in their last 4 it's tough for me to get on...

As I eluded to, that's why though. Much publicized blockbuster syndrome against Melb then backed up for another on 6-days (Carl). Had half the side missing to Bulldogs. They will/should be the hunter this time. Bread & butter punting at these odds IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14.

As I eluded to' date=' that's why though. Much publicized blockbuster syndrome against Melb . [/quote'] Oh, Mick, please!! :rollin [Terry?] lol!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Last four they were only bad to Carlton. 100pts over WCE wasn't too bad :D and the Melbourne game was more about Melbourne - motivating factors.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Yeah, well, I'm the first to admit I'm not great when it comes to football mind-games/psychology... ...or bread and butter puddings. :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Bill Hurley Sportsbook: Adelaide Either team 24 you get Adelaide +24.5 @ 2.10, although I just took the 2.50 option. Lasseters offer +20.5 @ 2.10 and Centrebet offer just +18.5 @ 2.10

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Never mind...just trying to make sense of it now! ;) ...and nicely done. Good spot that. :ok Oh, I just watched a reaply of the Ess/Freo game, and saw that both Carr and Tarrant both kicked tough, important goals to give Freo a chance... ...ah, never mind! :rollin

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. .

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Not that half the punters out there would take that, I notice. Preferring +26.5 @ 1.90 instead :spank. ... and Taza, one I'm still trying to fathom? Your either an outstanding socializer on the fizz or the Launceston talent is extremely poor. :lol Got a bit all over the place on this game. Eskander: 1ST TEAM TO 25 POINTS, Adelaide @ 3.30 is good. I make it a 2.70 probability.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Adelaide v Cats - Either Team Under 15.5pts @ 4.65 Sports Acumen Perfect conditions (relative to the value) for this bet. The inferior team on paper is at home, the home advantage is a genuine one and the home team generally like to keep it low scoring in the big games. Geelong have won 4 of their last 5 at AAMI (some against Port mind you) by no more than 10pts. If the Crows win I can't see the margin being great and I would imagine that this game will play out similar to the one against the Hawks, only with Burton playing this time.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. That one's good value also, Oscar. Could be some dew if the breeze stays off. Combining the 4.65 with the Adelaide >15.5 @ 8.5 gives Adelaide +15.5 @ 3.00, which is what I've also done. These odds won't last long because this market is now in arb territory with Hurley just rearranging his markets - obviously TazaD just seriously messed up the guys balance sheet.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14.

... and Taza, one I'm still trying to fathom? Your either an outstanding socializer on the fizz or the Launceston talent is extremely poor. :lol

Too old and grumpy to socialise, mate. I prefer the challange of consuming a dozen or so beers and still making more sense watching the game than most of our favourite special comment men. ;) ...or a you saying I'm ugly?! :unsure :cry [fwiw, there's a picture of me in the 2001 official Grand Final record ;) ...but who cares about that, ay?! :D ] Still a very strange market down at ol' Bill's... Geelong -23.5 (1.91)...or if you're feeling lucky, you could take the Cats to win by 25 or more @ 1.91. :hope

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. It's been a tipsters nightmare so far this round and my punting hasn't been the best, but it's time to make amends with the two games remaining. The Crows haven't been as adventurous in the last month or so and have definitely adopted their old defensive mindset. One factor in their favour is they have not let an opposition team score more than 11 goals in a game at home for a year(10 games). On the negative, scoring goals themselves has become difficult. Burton and Goodwin just haven't produced in recent times. The Cats haven't put a foot wrong since their Collingwood thrashing. With Scarlett back in the team, it's hard to see the Crows more than 10 goals and that wont win them a game against the Cats. It wont be a high scoring game, but the Cats should win. The Swans without Goodes? How will they cope. It's certainly music to the ears of the Magpies who havent lost to the Swans since 2005. I think the Magpies will comfortably make the finals, but they need to get themselves away from those sides fighting for eighth spot. They're missing Rocca and Fraser but they've got replacements to cover them. The Swans haven't been able to handle Didak, Pendlebury and Thomas previously and I expect this to be no different. The Swans have the forward power to kick a winning score, but supply issues with Goodes missing has the Magpies winning this one. Players missing from best 22's. 2- Geelong, Collingwood 3- Adelaide, Sydney Predictor. Adelaide 75 v Geelong 89 Sydney 88 v Collingwood 91 Best Bets. Collingwood HT/FT Double. Good luck.

[aldric]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Are there any live feeds for the adeleide v geelong game?