Afl Rd. 13.

[TazaD]

Looks another dog weekend ahead...a couple of funny odds I would have thought... Adelaide @ 3.20ish?! I know there's been a few doubts over the Crows given an easy early draw, but Brisbane have had the same deal...only beaten 1 team in the top 7, and that was Collingwood early, by just 2 points at home. (The same Collingwood who've been beaten by Carlton now twice!! ) Crows midfield going as well as anyone atm...av'ing +6 I50's in their last 4 (4th best), despite 2 losses. Burton back is a BIG bonus this week and will help take advantage of some forward entries. On the other side, Bradshaw likely out again has been a big loss for the Lions. Scored just 96 in the game he went down, and just 68 last week...so despite the Crows lack of D on the road, look lke they might struggle to kick a decent score. Venue is no problem for the Crows, having won here last year by 31 as 2.30 dogs...also in 2006, by 15 as favs. Huge chance to win again, imo...getting 3 goals start looks a bit silly! As bad as they are, Richmond +20ish looks nice too. Not sure why I had a dip at Port last week given I've been saying how crap they are all season... ...still crap!...in fact, going worse than ever. Av'ing a horrible 42 I50's in their last 4 (giving up 53!!)...including being beaten at home by Carlton, so not sure how they are decent sized favs over anyone right now. Richmond did all they had to last week after a couple of very tough games...they've won in Perth this year, only lost by 7 @ Adelaide last year as big dogs... Port won both meeting convincingly last year, but Richmond were last of the ladder with just 1 win after their Rd. 16 game, while Port were flying in 3rd @ 11-6. If Carlton can win, no reason the Tiges can't! Will take 18.5 of better in what looks like a toss-up. Kangas +5 goals Pawa? Both teams have dropped off significantly...Kangaroos av. -14 I50's in their last 4...Hawthrn av. 55 I50's for the season, but just 45 in their last 4. I think the Roos have more excuses tho...2 of their last 4, in fact 4 of last 6 on the road!!...AND, played 2 of the 3 top teams in the other 2 games for a win and a 13 point loss. TOUGH. Hawthorn got a bit lucky @ Adelaide this week, and have won just 2 of their last 8 but more than 16. Both teams with some injury concerns...McIntosh out for Kangas, but Taylor, Sewell, Bateman all out for Hawks...Crawford? Hawthorn won the first meeting in Rd. 3 by just 16 points, amazingly with 19 LESS contested possessions! Kangaroos have won 7 of last 10 meetings...Hawks not won by more than 22...and the Roos won their last meeting at the MCG last season as 2.65 dogs. I think people are reading a bit too much into losing to Freo last week...+30 looks nice. West Coast?...Seems every time I get suckered into going against Geelong I lose... ...but Eagles go ok at home. Just 2-4, but av. +2 I50's, and only 1 loss by more than 24 points (only 2 less shots than Carlton in a 37 point loss). Geelong travelled interstate just twice this season...a 9 point win at Port and a very lucky 1 point win @ Freo. Again, a bit too much of an over-reaction to the Eagles road/home form...and Geelong's big winover a poor Port... ...looks a lot of points to me, but will wait and see...

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Yeah, spot on! I jumped all over the 3.40 Lasseters last night. Forget the Adelaide form glitch to West Coast and Essendon, this is a genuine test for Brisbane and not the easy beat opp's they've had lately. You know I prefer the word HUGE regarding Burton and that's exactly polar about Bradshaw. Don't forget Johntsone twinged his hammy LW although he did come back on. Roe a test also, as with Reilly and Bassett. Great deal Crows. , likewise! Two very wrongly coached teams, so every chance Port could be first to lose. At least Richmond go in confident while despite Williams calling for a must win this week, I suspect he's lost the players and getting worse. Kangas well worth a look should they have some good ins. Five kids last week was bound to end in tears, and they do rebound well. Just think Freo a genuine sniff despite TD a bit of grave yard for them. Also will take Blues at that shortish quote. Essendon need it very weak which they got LW (WCE seven kids).

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. No more net problems then mate? :drums One other game...and this may be some form of performance anxiety...but I suspect Collingwood are a better shot than 2.50+ too... They've got the Doggies covered in form...last 4 games av'ing 57 I50's to Dogs 56...worse opp tho of course... Still, the Dome scares me! We looked horrible defensively v. the Kangas, never felt confident with a lead...I assume Cloke being out in factored into the odds, but they've still got plenty of fire-power. A draw there v. Richmond too...a lucky win in Rd. 1...4 decent wins over teams that just can't score. (Saints x2, WC, Ess minus Lucas) 3 less shots but 3 more I50's in a 33 point loss last year... The style is the biggest worry tho. They've play a hard, 1-1 style which we struggled against, clearly v. Kangas, and even v. Essendon for a half, although they couldn't sustain it of course. 2.75 now I look...bit silly really I think... :$

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. This game will possibly start late with Collingwood just the one at TD this year, so every chance they lose their way. I made it Coll 2.10 chance until I realised Cloke, but now think they're just a 2.62 shot. 54 - GO DOGGIES! Woof, woof, woof, woof, woof, woof, woof! - 54 Ps. Write out two opposite Sunday evening posts in advance so we can comprehend! :D

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. West Coast price is massive IMO, MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE! Ok, that was taking it a bit too far, but I'd rather back West Coast against a top team than a bottom one. Seem to play better against them, just look at games against Crows and Swans. Don't much like the idea of the line though, it strikes me as a game where Eagles either do well or Cats walk over them, with not too much of an in between. If you don't like Eagles to win Cats 1-19/24 strikes me as better value than Eagles line. Saints v Freo...feels a little like a Saints 1-19 job to me, but feelings aren't strong yet. Freo competitive and generally always close, Friday night games often condusive to tight finishes too (can't really explain why though, might be me reverting back to unfiltered statistical reasoning yibberish) Hawks should win awkwardly against the Hawks...would love to find a Hawks 10-29 margin but wont get it, can't find confidence in other options.

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. So we've gone from BIG to HUGE to MASSIVE! Can someone trump MASSIVE? :) Saints/Freo does look a typical down to wire game? Kangas 32.5 @ Lasseters I notice - yes please! Adel 18.5 Lakers 2.51 1st half, then I think I'll back Celtics In-run. Yeah ... no net LW. :$ :D

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Well, bugger it...why not mention all the game before the middle of the week. Who needs to see the teams before making ENORMOUS statements anyway :lol (Although, if Hawthorn sneak over Hawthorn I'll be impressed! ;) ) Ash, you're a braver man than I to be taking Carlton... Clearly there's more in play than previous meetings, but Carlton always seem to have tight (relatively recent anyway) games with Collingwood and Essendon. Haven't won by more than 33 in their last 10...in fact we have to go back a MONTEROUS 23 games...1997...to get a bigger Carlton win!! Bombers won Rd. 3 with no Lucas...and, despite some pretty weak resistance, I think their structure looked ok with Neagle @ FF and Lloyd roaming around a bit last week. Carlton with the midfield strength obviously, and had +7 I50's last game...but Hille has a GIGANTIC advantage in the ruck (esp. if they go with Laycock as well)...and Fev kicked 8 and they still lost. I've got no great confidece either way...certainly won't be surprised either way. (Can this be the week I have a bet on every game?! :eek ) ...well, probably not! :lol ...'cause the Friday night game looks like a stinker! Freo have found it pretty tough to score on the road...besides v. Melbourne of course!...but the rest of their numbers stack up ok, and they might have finally gained some confidence/momentum... ...Saints can wipe off the last 2 weeks against superior teams, but they aren't as good as their VOLUMINOUS win over Melbourne either. I think they'll still handle Freo, but crappy oddds really. (an under if possible, but doubt I'll see a high number) Sydney look straight forward winners @ Canberra...but the spread it a little out of my reach. Swans won by 8 goals there last year...but it was 8 goals. Really should win from anywhere between 30 and 130. Unfortunately I'm going to miss LA get the smacking they deserve today (although it should have been by 'Sheed and the boys :wall )... ...but a Boston win and Pierce Finals MVP will do nicely ;) Nothing personal, but a massive **** YOU to the most over-rated player just about ever. (Yes, you Bryant.) :clap

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Port to beat Port or Richmond to beat Richmond or Freo to beat Freo but usually not Hawthorn. Having a closer look, Essendon do look stronger than for six weeks, so perhaps I could need to think more on this.

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13.

...but a Boston win and Pierce Finals MVP will do nicely ;)

Smartar$e! :lol. Turned out not as easy as I thought to get Evens Boston HT :\. :spank Oh yes ... even better; +34.5 available North. Teams important though. Hope those interested took the 18.5 Adelaide early - did look much too high.

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. I was too slow... :wall Had to make do with +16.5 and 33.5 for the Roos. About to go and get me some +21.5 Tigers aswell. Freo into the 1.90's!! All because of Lyon saying he'll "blood some kids"? McEvoy will play, but Sandilands wins every tap every game anyway, which never helps their midfield! Other boys are "in the mix"...ie. probably won't play! :lol Will definately wait for team news, but I think I'd have to start liking the Saints out at evens or better?! :eek Reckon I've talked myself into collingwood +18.5 too...Shhhh.... :sad

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13.

Other boys are "in the mix"...ie. probably won't play! :lol

Scratch that!!...Being reported the Dal Santo won't play!! :eek

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Dal Santo news actually pretty welcome from my end. Couldn't decide between Saints 1-19 and Either Team U15.5, but that decision is pretty easy now. Either Team Under 15.5pts @ 3.25 SportsAcumen

[Henry Jr]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Interesting, betting on the Saints vs Freo is suspended at alot of places in Australia now.

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. In: Armitage, Eddy, Allen, McEvoy Out: Nick Dal Santo, Stephen Milne, Michael Gardiner (hamstring), Adam Schneider (inj) :loon New: Ben McEvoy (Murray Bushrangers), Jarryd Allen (Calder Cannons), Robert Eddy (Gippsland Power/St Kilda rookie) :loon Well, he did worn us! Not disappointed at all with the 2.35 Freo I took :dude Does Nathan Thompson play?? Might wait till late on this.

[American Locksmith]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. I see Ashtee got Freo at 2.35. they were around 1.9 this morning, now down around 1.6? Also I see odds closed in some places anyone know why?

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Simply the magnitude of the Ins and Outs at St Kilda. Dal Santo's one of the best in the competition, Milne they rely on for goals (both not expected outs) and Koschitzke is still not back. Three first gamers come in, and it's a big ask to win with that many rookies. As I said, the coach had hinted he may do something drastic like this. With 2.35 on offer, gotta weigh it up sometimes.

[American Locksmith]

Re: Afl Rd. 13.

Simply the magnitude of the Ins and Outs at St Kilda. Dal Santo's one of the best in the competition' date=' Milne they rely on for goals (both not expected outs) and Koschitzke is still not back. Three first gamers come in, and it's a big ask to win with that many rookies. As I said, the coach had hinted he may do something drastic like this. With 2.35 on offer, gotta weigh it up sometimes.[/quote'] Thanks, I have just been following the league this year so not up on the history and which clubs are historically top/bottom clubs. Like the sport alot and like getting info from punters like you who know much about the sport.

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Yeah, I got 2.25 late yesterday even (after the DS news) from our good mates @ BetWin... ...of course I still have my $100 limit, so I may just bring in enough to cover this weekend's drinking tab! :lol Now, if I put that same $100 on St. Kilda I'll at least get myself a free bottle of Bundy...no, not quite. A 6 pack of Bundy?....er, not anymore!...a bottle of cooking cherry?? :unsure Definately want the 'under' now in this one. Perfectly clear what kind of game style Lyon wants, and as Ash mentioned, not sure how the Saints manufacture a winning score. How about the Pies! No Cloke, Fraser or Davis, Rocca doubtful. Most places have gone offline with this one, but they're out to +26 I can see. Will be tough for them to win now, but this kind of start puts them in the same league as St. Kilda and Essendon as far as Bully wins at the Dome are concerned. Lot of points.

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Big move on the Kangas...into 4.85 from over 6.00 Ash, was that you? :unsure

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. It could be the weekend of the outsider, with plenty of favourites being far too short and roughies at outrageous odds. The Telstra Dome is a graveyard for the Dockers, no matter who they confront. They usually get beaten by between 2 and 6 goals. They never get blown away, but rarely win. Ross Lyon has swung the axe, but Dal Santo might play if Harvey doesn't come up. Whoever plays best between Riewoldt and Pavlich will decide this one, but I think St.Kilda's midfield will have the upper hand and see them home. The game between Hawthorn and North will be a fascinating affair. The Hawks running power is severely diminished with Bateman, Crawford, Sewell and McGlynn missing. The Kangaroos have a full compliment of midfielders with Harris and Rawlings having a great record of closing down Mitchell and Hodge. North's forward line has been strengthened with Jones and Thompson returning. Hawks will probably be on a downer after their last gasp win over Adelaide whilst North should rebound strongly from last weeks disappointment. It sounds like 2007 semi-final weekend all over again and I think we'll get the same result with North to cause the upset. The Crows did everything right last week, but couldn't nail the Hawks with the chances they had. With Burton and Reilly back, they look even more dangerous. Even though their away form hasn't been great so far, they don't mind the trip to Brisbane. The Lions seem to be having a tough time handling the top tier. They were very disappointing last week and without Bradshaw again, the Crows defence will lap up triple teaming Brown and keep their top 4 hopes alive by winning comfortably. Johnstone and Sherman are late withdrawls for Brisbane. I was fortunate to get Adelaide at $3.20 on Tuesday. Port's home record has been dreadful so far and will cost them a finals spot. It's hard to comprehend they are going so badly seeing as they've hardly had any injuries. They need a substantial lift from the Cornes and Burgoyne boys. The Tigers did everything to throw away their game against Melbourne last week and are probably still a bottom four team. Their record at AAMI is awful winning just 1 of their last 13 there. No excuses for Port here and should win easily. The Cats travel to Perth with Selwood and Stokes passing fitness tests. They did what they had to last week, but they are overusing the ball far too much inside 50. It probably cost them 6 or 7 goals last week. The Eagles team looks stronger and they are playing decent footy at home. They'll give some cheek, but the Cats will keep top spot. The Swans travel to their home away from home in Canberra and should hammer the Demons. Injuries are at a minimum, they're playing attractive football and alot of their players are at the top of their game. The Demons have been competitive recently, but are still on track to collect the wooden spoon. Essendon certainly are big odds to topple the Blues, but they match up well against them. It's time for Lucas to fire, and if he does they'll be hard to beat. The Blues are looking to win three games in a row for the first time since 2001. After they won two in a row last year, they got comfortable with themselves started favourites against the Hawks and got pole-axed. Will they get ahead of themselves again? They should win, but the Bombers will test them. Collingwood's injury problems has the Bulldogs winning this game easily. In my mind, the Bulldogs have been the best side in 2008 so far and have the Magpies covered in every department. Their midfield is flying and their forward line should contribute another 18-20 goals again this week. The Pies are starting to fall of the pace, but will still play finals. Player's missing from best 22's. 2 - W.Bulldogs 3 - Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Sydney 4 - Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood 5 - Fremantle, Hawthorn, North, Melbourne 6 - West Coast, Brisbane, Essendon 7 - Richmond 10 - St.Kilda Predictor. Fremantle by 12, Hawthorn by 7, Port by 22, Brisbane by 1, Geelong by 16, Sydney by 70, Carlton by 8 , W.Bulldogs by 12. Best Bets. North WIN North POINTS (+21.5) Adelaide MARGIN (1-39) Good punting in Round 13.

[pete]

Re: Afl Rd. 13.

It could be the weekend of the outsider, with plenty of favourites being far too short and roughies at outrageous odds. The Telstra Dome is a graveyard for the Dockers, no matter who they confront. They usually get beaten by between 2 and 6 goals. They never get blown away, but rarely win. Ross Lyon has swung the axe, but Dal Santo might play if Harvey doesn't come up. Whoever plays best between Riewoldt and Pavlich will decide this one, but I think St.Kilda's midfield will have the upper hand and see them home. The game between Hawthorn and North will be a fascinating affair. The Hawks running power is severely diminished with Bateman, Crawford, Sewell and McGlynn missing. The Kangaroos have a full compliment of midfielders with Harris and Rawlings having a great record of closing down Mitchell and Hodge. North's forward line has been strengthened with Jones and Thompson returning. Hawks will probably be on a downer after their last gasp win over Adelaide whilst North should rebound strongly from last weeks disappointment. It sounds like 2007 semi-final weekend all over again and I think we'll get the same result with North to cause the upset. The Crows did everything right last week, but couldn't nail the Hawks with the chances they had. With Burton and Reilly back, they look even more dangerous. Even though their away form hasn't been great so far, they don't mind the trip to Brisbane. The Lions seem to be having a tough time handling the top tier. They were very disappointing last week and without Bradshaw again, the Crows defence will lap up triple teaming Brown and keep their top 4 hopes alive by winning comfortably. Johnstone and Sherman are late withdrawls for Brisbane. I was fortunate to get Adelaide at $3.20 on Tuesday. Port's home record has been dreadful so far and will cost them a finals spot. It's hard to comprehend they are going so badly seeing as they've hardly had any injuries. They need a substantial lift from the Cornes and Burgoyne boys. The Tigers did everything to throw away their game against Melbourne last week and are probably still a bottom four team. Their record at AAMI is awful winning just 1 of their last 13 there. No excuses for Port here and should win easily. The Cats travel to Perth with Selwood and Stokes passing fitness tests. They did what they had to last week, but they are overusing the ball far too much inside 50. It probably cost them 6 or 7 goals last week. The Eagles team looks stronger and they are playing decent footy at home. They'll give some cheek, but the Cats will keep top spot. The Swans travel to their home away from home in Canberra and should hammer the Demons. Injuries are at a minimum, they're playing attractive football and alot of their players are at the top of their game. The Demons have been competitive recently, but are still on track to collect the wooden spoon. Essendon certainly are big odds to topple the Blues, but they match up well against them. It's time for Lucas to fire, and if he does they'll be hard to beat. The Blues are looking to win three games in a row for the first time since 2001. After they won two in a row last year, they got comfortable with themselves started favourites against the Hawks and got pole-axed. Will they get ahead of themselves again? They should win, but the Bombers will test them. Collingwood's injury problems has the Bulldogs winning this game easily. In my mind, the Bulldogs have been the best side in 2008 so far and have the Magpies covered in every department. Their midfield is flying and their forward line should contribute another 18-20 goals again this week. The Pies are starting to fall of the pace, but will still play finals. Player's missing from best 22's. 2 - W.Bulldogs 3 - Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Sydney 4 - Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood 5 - Fremantle, Hawthorn, North, Melbourne 6 - West Coast, Brisbane, Essendon 7 - Richmond 10 - St.Kilda Predictor. Fremantle by 12, Hawthorn by 7, Port by 22, Brisbane by 1, Geelong by 16, Sydney by 70, Carlton by 8 , W.Bulldogs by 12. Best Bets. North WIN North POINTS (+21.5) Adelaide MARGIN (1-39) Good punting in Round 13.

Great write-up again, relly look forward to your thoughts each week, keep up the good work.:clap

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13.

Big move on the Kangas...into 4.85 from over 6.00 Ash, was that you? :unsure

No but I did grab the +32.5 @ Stan James just then (while it lasts) on the gamble that Thommo plays and not Josh Smith. Laidley said he's playing, and he wouldn't lie :unsure. Certainly signs in the market direction that he's playing. They were out to 6.00?

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Pretty sure I saw a 6.25 there at one short stage when they jumped out to +34.5 Huge plunge inwards really...at a funny time (mid Friday for a Sat game :\ ) Starting to think about buying Geelong back...hopefully they come in aother point or two. Selwood would have been a big out.

[DeMMa]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Port today, can come out and just win or win by 60+... Im going on 60+ points, to show all these "doubters" that they won't lose two in a row @ home. gl

[Henry Jr]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. With this constant drizzle thats set in for the day, quite like the Roos 1-39 @ $5.65 Don't think the wet conditions will suit Buddy and Co. up forward. Also, might take either team by under 39.5pts @ $1.65 Good luck everyone....

[DeMMa]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. shattered... i got Geelong in a multi @ $1.12 Now gone to $1.27 wdf..why?

[yves]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. damn bad start for west coast, 21-4 after 13 minutes

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Worse finish! :puke Never, ever, ever in the race. Was the worst single team performance I think I've seen at AFL level...going back to late Fitzroy days at least! :lol Low scorer at the 'G today. Bit of rain about...misty drizzle there now, so slippery conditions. Not many wet games these days, but Carlton had a 138 v. Port in the wet and Ess a 143 v. the Crows. Essendon know that stopping Fev is the key, no-one else kicks Carlton goals, so like the Kangas did to Buddy yesterday they'll be all over him. Knights just said in a pre-game interview they'll "have a different style" today (in relation to last meeting).

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. I'm in mate :ok Ratten just hinted on radio he's also expecting an arm wrestle.

[TazaD]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. Waiting for Collingwood team news now...playing some ducks and drakes (whatever the hell that is! :D) Rocca is increasingly likely, but now Didak is less than 50/50! If Didak is out aswell I'd have to seriously consider -25. Ph, and why didn't I just take the 3.20 on the Bombers?! Far better price, far less sweating coming up... :wall Great call on that Kanga WIN too BC. :cheers Edit: Rocca in Didak in Wakelin out. Best left alone I think. WOOF! ;)