Derby / Oaks Preview

[Gingertipster]

Am going to a West Berkshire Racing Club Derby / Oaks / Flat Season preview tonight at Newbury Racecourse (Copper King Bar) 8:00 PM. £5 for non-members of WBRC. Should be an interesting evening. Guests include James Willoughby and Geoff Lester. Ginge

[mileni4uk]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Have fun, Ginge! Share the gossip later :ok

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 16:05 Epsom Downs, 6 Jun 2008 1m 4f 10y Juddmonte Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only) 2007 Winner: Light Shift Trainer: Henry Cecil Jockey: Ted Durcan Age: 3; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 13/2 Season Form Figures: -11 Best Previous Run: Won - Cheshire Oaks, Chester (Listed) Fillies' classics usually go to form — this season’s 1000 Guineas being yet another example. No less than 18 of the last Oaks 23 winners have now started in the first three in the betting but that did not include Light Shift 12 months ago who just missed out on that statistic starting fourth-favourite so we weren’t too far away. Six Oaks winners since 1994 ran in the 1000 Guineas which is a positive for Lush Lashes’ should their connections stop playing games and those six most-recent winners to contest the opening fillies' Classic finished in the first six at Newmarket - the position Lush Lashes filled last month. Over the last 16 years, the recognised trial with the best record has been the Lingfield Oaks Trial but this season's renewal looked a sub-standard one in relation to those won by User Friendly, Lady Carla and Ramruma so we should be looking more towards the Musidora Stakes. Two seasons ago the Musidora Stakes highlighted both the Oaks winner Alexandrova (second at York) and the third Short Skirt (won) underlining its position as the most informative Oaks Trial in recent seasons. During the last 20 years, three winners and one second; Diminuendo (1988), Snow Bride (1989), Reams Of Verse (1997) and Alexandrova (2006) went on to win the Oaks and surely Indian Skimmer would have outclassed her rivals in 1987 had she been entered for Epsom when there was no supplementary stage. There is no other Oaks trial with a roll of honour that can match that and that could easily improve as four of the first five in the betting at the time of writing for the Oaks locked horns in this season’s Musidora - a race that was emphatically won by Lush Lashes though expect Cape Amber, who was having her seasonal debut and will come on a bundle, to close that gap if not finish in front of the Irish filly should they meet at Epsom. As for the other recognised trials, only Ouija Board has come from the Pretty Polly Stakes (won by Saphira’s Fire) in the last 30 years, only Eswarah has won the Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury (won by Clowance) and gone on to win at Epsom in the same period and Light Shift ended a very long losing run of Cheshire Oaks (won by Sail) winners to land the Oaks last season. The recently-retired Sadler's Wells has a tremendous Oaks record having sired five winners and, remarkably, he was also responsible for the 1-2-3 seven years ago. Salsabil, Intrepidity, Moonshell, Imagine and Alexandrova were all sired by the all-conquering Coolmore-based stallion in addition to three runners-up in the last six seasons and this season his chief hopes ride with Sail. If Sadler’s Wells’ stock are faring well it’s a fair bet that Aidan O'Brien won’t be faring too badly either and the current king of Ballydoyle has won three Oaks in the last nine years with Shahtoush, Imagine and Alexandrova as well as saddling four runners-up. Out of luck last season, he only supplied the second and third with Peeping Fawn being an unfortunate loser in many punters’ eyes when coming from a mile back and meeting touble en route to only going down by half a length and then proving herself the best in the field by taking four Group 1 races on the spin. We can certainly expect a big run from his Cheshire Oaks winner Sail but equally interesting is the 1000 Guineas ninth, Kitty Matcham, who is a daughter of Imagine so can be expected to improve for the step up in trip though, to counter-balance that argument, the sire line is not so strong stamina-wise being by Rock Of Gibraltar. The Musidora disappointment, Moonstone, who is still a maiden, may also be given a chance to redeem her reputation given she had a rough ride at York. If you are worried by her maiden status, then don’t be as Sun Princess had a similar profile having also finished second on her two career starts before walloping her rivals by a jaw-dropping 12 lengths to win the 1983 Oaks. Amazingly it has been 21 long years since Sir Michael Stoute last won the Oaks with Unite and that run looks likely to be extended given he is short on three-year-old classic talent this season. The Irish dominate the betting with only Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Cape Amber considered a serious runner for the home defence with Godolphin also short on quality three-year-old fillies. Trends summary: 18 of the last 23 winners started in the first three in the betting Sadler's Wells has sired five winners and three runners-up Aidan O'Brien has saddled three winners and four runners-up from 18 runners in the last nine seasons Five of the last six Musidora Stakes winners to run have been placed Six of the last 23 winners finished in the first six in the 1000 Guineas

OAKS PREVIOUS WINNERS

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 16:00 Epsom Downs, 7 Jun 2008 1m 4f 10y Vodafone Derby (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only) 2007 Winner: Authorized Trainer: Peter Chapple-Hyam Jockey: Frankie Dettori Age: 3; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 5/4F Season Form Figures: -1 Best Previous Run: Won - Dante Stakes, York (Group 2) There's one golden rule in the Derby; back a last-time out winner like 14 of the last 15 winners. If that doesn’t cut it down enough for you then back a contender that has won its last two starts like six of the last seven winners and that should markedly separate the wheat from the chaff. In other words, you may want to have Henrythenavigator, Tartan Bearer and Casual Conquest right at the forefront of your mind being the only contenders in the top twenty in the betting with such a profile. Sir Percy ended a 13-year pattern when scoring two years ago in that he became the first Derby winner since Dr Devious in 1992 that failed to win on his most recent start (that said, finishing second in the 2000 Guineas to George Washington is no bad run) but the situation was restored last season with Authorized stylishly following up his Dante victory. With beaten horses last-time-out operating at just a 7% strike rate since 1992, trends followers simply have to treat Sir Percy’s victory as a one-off and we should not be surprised that only Quest For Fame has taken the Blue Riband since 1974 after tasting defeat in a recognised classic trial (I am not including Classics in this as it would be insulting to call them trials as such). For the record, Generous (4th in 2000 Guineas), Secreto (3rd in Irish 2000 Guineas) and Dr Devious (unplaced in Kentucky Derby) were joined by Sir Percy as Derby winners to contest a Classic last time out during that period. Over half of the last 26 Derby winners won the Dante, Leopardstown Derby Trial or Lingfield Derby Trial so Tartan Bearer, Casual Conquest and Alessandro Volta have to be high on our shortlist. The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial was won by Casual Conquest who showed a dynamite turn of foot to cut down his rivals but his participation for Epsom remains up in the air at present as connections seem to want to make a political point at the expense of punters. As for the Dante Stakes won by Tartan Bearer, it didn’t look that special with Frozen Fire a close-up second but the winner is improving at a rate of knots like North Light for the same connections and there was plenty to like about the way he knuckled down. The Lingfield Derby Trial won by Alessandro Volta from stablemate King Of Rome lacked potential star quality and it would be surprising if either of those is a star in the making. Moreover, the winner still scored despite patently not handling the track. Looking at those three trials with the best record, only 12 winners of the Leopardstown Derby Trial have taken their chance at Epsom since 1982 yet four (Golden Fleece, Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral) have won and Dylan Thomas was only a head away from making that five two years ago. Six winners of the Dante Stakes (Shahrastani, Reference Point, Erhaab, Benny The Dip, Motivator and Authorized) have gone on to secure Epsom glory since 1986 whilst the Lingfield Derby Trial has been responsible for four winners doubling up since 1983 (Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi and High-Rise). Two of those were trained by Luca Cumani who was all set to run Curtain Call as his final trial but bypassed Lingfield due to fast ground. Of the other trials, the Dee Stakes won by Tajaaweed is on the up having supplied two fairly recent winners including Kris Kin for the same trainer of this season’s lightly-raced winner and it would not come as a huge surprise if he found the required improvement as did the 2003 winner of both races. The Chester Vase won by Doctor Fremantle did not excite too many and no winner has doubled up since Shergar in 1981. Campanologist outgunned Henry Cecil’s Kandahar Run in the Feilden Stakes but the last winner to contest that trail was Slip Anchor 22 years ago though it should be highlighted he was beaten into third and then won the Newmarket Stakes as did Kandahar Run for the same yard. However, the Feilden Stakes took a knock when Campanologist blew out in the Dante and no defeated horse in that trial has ever won the Derby. Centennial also had his limitations exposed in the Dante having won the Sandown Classic Trial which last produced the Derby winner 11 years ago so that form is also looking decidedly shaky. As for guidance from the market, only High-Rise has won at any bigger than 14/1 in the last 33 years so don’t go chancing an outsider for win-only bets. There was a time during the seventies and eighties when if you weren't on the favourite or second-favourite, it was as good as throwing money away but even though the race has been won by slightly bigger-priced horses of late, if you fancy an outsider, then back it to overperform rather than waste the win element of any each-way bets as it is rare the Derby goes the way of anything other than a fancied horse. When Erhaab won the Derby in 1993, he was having his ninth career start. Since then, it has been a case of less is more with only Benny The Dip running on more than five occasions during his career prior to lining up at Epsom. Aidan O'Brien is gunning for his fourth Derby in eight years and, although he doesn’t appear to have a superstar 12f horse this season, you never really know with this stable. At present, he has seven horses remaining in the Derby and given he ran eight last year, don’t be surprised if several of them figure in the final line-up. Sir Michael Stoute has two strong cards in Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed in his bid for a fifth Derby and a third since 2003. The fact they both won trials this stable has won before with Derby winners enhances their profile further. It doesn’t look like the French (or Jim Bolger) are going to bother sending anything noteworthy over so it will now be 32 years since Empery ridden by Lester Piggott last gave a French-based stable the Derby winner. Trends summary: Just one of the last 15 winners was beaten last time out (six of the last seven winners won their last two starts) The last 14 winners had raced no more than five times beforehand Only one winner bigger than 14/1 since 1974 No French-trained winner since 1976 The winner of the Dante, Leopardstown Derby Trial and Lingfield Derby Trial have won 14 of the 26 renewals No Chester Vase winner since 1981 has gone on to triumph

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 15:25 Epsom Downs, 6 Jun 2008 1m 4f 10y Coronation Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 2007 Winner: Scorpion Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Michael Kinane Age: 5; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 8/1 Season Form Figures: -2 Best Previous Run: 2nd - Ormonde Stakes, Chester (Group 3) Amazingly, we have to go back to when the five-year-old mare Time Charter beat the four-year-old Sun Princess in the battle of the previous two Oaks winners back in 1984 to find the last successful first-time-out winner so, whatever else you do, strike a line through any seasonal debutants. Speaking of fillies and mares, it's also 17 years since In The Groove became the last female to score and many a class act has tried and failed since then including Classic winners Ouija Board and User Friendly and plus Arc winner in Urban Sea, the Champion Stakes winner Pride and the tough German-trained dual Group 1 winner and Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up, Borgia. Once we have our race-fit shortlist, do not consider chancing a horse with something to prove in terms of wellbeing as 17 of the last 18 Coronation Cup finished first, second or third on their previous start. This is an immensely-strong statistic that simply can not be swept under the carpet and must be acted upon. The Coronation Cup was a seriously good race for the French between 1986-1996 winning seven renewals within that period, five of which (Saint Estephe, In The Wings, Apple Tree, Sunshack and Swain) were supplied by the outstanding Andre Fabre who also won with Shirocco two years ago so, should his Arc fourth Getaway take his chance following his power-packed Jockey Club Stakes victory, he is going to start a deserving favourite. Three of those seven successful French raiders started at double-figure odds so don’t go forgetting their lesser lights either. In terms of age, those grand warriors Triptych and Warrsan were successful six-year-olds but we have to go back to Dean Swift in 1909 to find the last Coronation Cup winner aged older than six. In fact, to further underline the strength of that statistic, since the race was inaugurated back in 1902, those were the only three winners to have been aged six or older so as a general rule stick to four and five-year-olds. With four of the last ten winners finishing in the first three in the Jockey Club Stakes at the Newmarket Guineas Meeting, that Group 2 mile-and-a-half affair has been the most consistent guide and is another statistical factor in Getaway’s favour. Andre Fabre’s lightly-raced (for a five-year-old) German-bred mowed down Sixties Icon and Galactic Star off a slow pace far from certain to have suited this stayer from the previous season. With smallish the fields the order of the day, it is not a huge surprise that 13 of the last 14 winners have emerged from the first four in the betting with Scorpion’s 8/1 success last season proving to be the one that got away. Trends summary: No first-time-out winner for 24 years 17 of the last 18 winners finished in the first three last time out Just three winners older than five since 1902 No winning filly or mare for 17 years Four of the last 10 winners contested the Jockey Club Stakes Andre Fabre has trained six winners since 1986

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 15:15 Epsom Downs, 7 Jun 2008 5f totesport.com 'Dash' Heritage Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus) 2007 Winner: Hogmaneigh Trainer: Stuart Williams Jockey: Saleem Golan (3) Age: 4; Weight: 9st 1lb Starting Price: 7/1 Season Form Figures: -3 Best Previous Run: 3rd - Handicap, York It was a complete turnaround last season as far as the draw was concerned as the first five home were all drawn in double figures as just one winner had come from higher than stall 12 in the previous ten years. High numbers usually need a heck of a lot of luck in running as the field tends to converge towards the favoured stands’ rail but last season in a remarkably cleanly-run race they managed to stay out of each others’ way and so dominated the race. I wouldn’t bet about that happening again too soon though. Unlike in any other major sprint handicap in the Racing Calendar, it appears the middle is the best place to be as seven of the last 11 winners came from between traps 8-12. Luck in running is going to play huge role over the fastest five furlongs in the world with a big field assured so confirmed hold-up horses have to be treated with scepticism. It is especially difficult for a jockey on a hold-up horse drawn high towards the inside rail as getting a run can prove impossible though the splits came right twice for Bishops Court in 1998 and 2001. On the whole, it pays to look to horses that race on or just behind the pace as it is all downhill. Dandy Nicholls is the main man for this type of sprint handicaps and no doubt he'll be mob-handed in a bid to win this race for the fourth time in seven years. Throw in the fact he trained the 1-2 in 2005 and has also had four other placed horses and we have to be seriously looking at his squad. In fact, this has been a terrific race for the North in general as Nicholls' four winners aside (also won in 1997), other recent victories have gone the way of Kevin Ryan (2006), John Quinn (2004) and Lynda Ramsden twice with Bishops Court. If you are thinking about supporting a member of the classic generation then forget it as over 30 three-year-olds have tried their luck since Double Quick won in 1995 with only a couple hitting the frame and their only contender last season finished stone last. Horses aged six and older have fared much the best of late winning six of the last nine contests. Trends summary: Horses drawn centrally (8-12) have won seven of the last 11 renewals No winning three-year-old since 1995 Horses aged six and older have won six of the last nine runnings Northern-based trainers have won six of the last seven runnings (and nine of the last 11) Dandy Nicholls has trained four winners since 1997 Oppose confirmed hold-up horses (especially drawn high towards the inside rail)

VODAFONE DASH (HERITAGE HANDICAP) PREVIOUS WINNERS

Year	Winner	Trainer	Jockey	Age/Wt	SP
2007	Hogmaneigh	S Williams	S Golam	4 9-1	7/1
2006	Desert Lord	K Ryan	D O'Donohoe	6 8-8	12/1
2005	Fire Up The Band	D Nicholls	R Hughes	6 9-9	14/1
2004	Caribbean Coral	J Quinn	R Winston	5 9-5	20/1
2003	Atlantic Viking	D Nicholls	S Sanders	8 8-7	9/1
2002	Rudi's Pet	D Nicholls	A Nicholls	8 8-7	16/1
2001	Bishops Court	Mrs J Ramsden	R Winston	7 9-4	9/2jf
2000	Astonished	J Hammond	K Fallon	4 9-2	11/4f
1999	To The Roof	P Harris	J Fortune	7 9-1	5/1
1998	Bishops Court	Mrs J Ramsden	J Fortune	4 9-2	9/2f
1997	Ya Malak	D Nicholls	A Greaves	6 9-2	13/2

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 13:40 Epsom Downs, 6 Jun 2008 1m 114y Juddmonte Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus) 2007 Winner: Blythe Knight Trainer: John Quinn Jockey: Graham Gibbons Age: 7; Weight: 9st 4lb Starting Price: 4/1 Season Form Figures: -931 Best Previous Run: Won - Hambleton Handicap, York (Listed) One of the strongest patterns races from a trends perspective run throughout the season, the Diomed Stakes is usually a keenly-contested Group 3 event featuring previous pattern-race winners and improving handicappers and it is the previous Group and Listed-race winners that have been dominating lately winning the last eight renewals. Of those last eight winners, five had won Group races and three had won Listed races with last season’s winner Blythe Knight falling into the latter category. Even in a race averaging less than ten runners, a low draw has been an advantage. Of the last 20 runnings, a whacking 17 have been won by horses drawn in one of the lowest four stalls thus reinforcing the assertion that being on a prominent racer saving ground on the mile track at Epsom is paramount. The draw had little effect last season with just five runners but, for the record, stall 2 took the honours. What takes the gloss off that statistic somewhat, is that those three successes for horses drawn higher than stall four have been achieved in three of the last seven years but all three horses (Gateman, Pulau Tioman and Passing Glance) were confirmed front runners that were manoeuvred to an inside prominent position within a furlong of the start. Of the last 15 winners, only two did not finish in the first four last time out so being on an in-form horse is important. Of the pair to 'fail' last time out, one was dropping back to Group 3 company having been outclassed in a Group 1 on his previous start so we can forgive that so only Lear Spear has won off the back of an average last time out effort in that period. Epsom is an idiosyncratic track so proven ability to handle the course has to be a positive. Going back to 1997, six winners had previously won over this course before (Nayyir, Polar Prince, Intikhab, Gateman, Passing Glance and Blythe Knight) so that is also something to factor into your calculations and probably and under-rated ‘in’ into the race as few will have a course victory to their credit. The Diomed Stakes has very much been a race for horses that like to race close to the pace and any horse that can bag the inside rail holds a decisive advantage over this mile as ‘outside runners’ regularly lose ground turning into Tattenham Corner. Given that it is downhill for the next three furlongs, lost ground is difficult to peg back. During the last 13 years, nine winners raced right on the pace with three making all and the successful trio not to mix it from the outset were settled in midfield rather than attempting to come from the rear. Although many have been placed, the fact remains that all 18 three-year-olds to take their chance since Bluegrass Prince won 13 years ago (none ran last season) have been beaten which does not bode well for any such contenders. Nayyir won the race for the second time at the age of eight two years ago but this has been a strong race for four and five-year-olds down the years winning ten of the last 13 renewals. Trends summary: Horses drawn 1-4 have won 16 of the last 20 runnings Previous Group and Listed race winners have won the last eight renewals 6 of the last 11 winners were previous course winners 9 of the last 13 winners either made all or raced close to the pace 13 of the last 15 finished in the first four last time out The last 18 three-year-olds to run since 1994 have been beaten Four and five-year-olds have won 10 of the 13 runnings

DIOMED STAKES PREVIOUS WINNERS

Year	Winner	Trainer	Jockey	Age/Wt	SP
2007	Blythe Knight	J J Quinn	G Gibbons	7 9-4	4/1
2006	Nayyir	G Butler	L Dettori	8 9-4	11/2
2005	Hazyview	N Callaghan	D Holland	4 9-4	8/1
2004	Passing Glance	A Balding	M Dwyer	5 9-9	20/1
2003	Gateman	M Johnson	K Dalgleish	6 9-4	13/2
2002	Nayyir	G Butler	E Ahern	4 9-4	5/1jf
2001	Pulau Tioman	M Jarvis	P Robinson	5 9-4	6/1
2000	Trans Island	I Balding	K Fallon	5 9-9	5/4f
1999	Lear Spear	D Elsworth	T Quinn	4 9-4	7/1
1998	Intikhab	S Bin Suroor	L Dettori	4 9-4	2/1f
1997	Polar Prince	M Jarvis	R Cochrane	4 9-4	14/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview No real surprises with the WBRC Derby Preview. DERBY. All three, James Willoughby, Brendan Duke and Stan Moore were negative in their opinions of the chances of New Approach. Willoughby scathing in his comments on how Jim Bolger has handled the press. Anyway, he believes we may have seen the best of New Approach, feeling his runs this season in both Guineas may have left a psychological scar on his temperament. Stan Moore thought Rio De La Plata had very little chance of staying the trip. Willoughby made the point very few animals by Rahy stay 1 ½ miles. Fantastic Light being out of a Nyjinsky mare (not a 1m-1m2f sire). Similar words were said about River Proud. Willoughby thought Tajaaweed may struggle to stay 1 ½ miles, though is a big and strong racehorse. Brendan Duke felt Curtain Call was a good bet, apparently Luca Cumani is very confident. Bound to stay the trip and acts well on a soft surface. Willoughby said although he only won a small race at Nottingham (the Epsom trial), Curtain Call would have been odds on for the Lingfield Derby Trial. A race the trainer won with both his Derby winners. Moore was keen on Casual Conquest and thought if anything was going to win easily it would be him, very impressive in the Derrinstown Derby trial, a race with a good recent record. Doctor Freemantle was his each way selection, coped well with Chester and quickened well. He also felt Kandahar Run would run well. As well as Curtain Call and Casual Conquest, Willoughby also liked Tartan Bearer, having battling qualities that will stand him in good stead. Duke also believed Tartan Bearer best of Stoutes team and could not see Doctor Freemantle winning as Ryan Moore is a good judge. Apparently though Michael Stoute believes Tajaaweed is his best chance with Tartan Bearer only second best. James Willoughby also gave a good mention of Bronze Cannon, who looks over priced on his form with Doctor Freemantle. But did say he's probably only good enough for third or fourth. Brendan Duke: Curtain Call, negative New Approach. Stan Moore: Casual Conquest, Doctor Freemantle or Kandahar Run each way possibles. James Willoughby: 1. Curtain Call, 2. Casual Conquest, 3. Tartan Bearer. OAKS. All three were negative on Lush Lashes, although they thought she is probably the best horse, her ability to handle both the going and track were doubted. Willoughby said she did not handle the dip well at Newmarket (possibly the best horse in that field). Better suited by the flat course at York. Duke and Moore thought the going will be against her, she ran poorly first time up on heavy this term, doing better on a sound surface. All three seemed to think the winner would come from Katiyra and Chinese White. Brendan Duke thought Saphira's Fire had an each way chance and also thought Kitty Matcham is better than her two Guineas runs suggests. Stan Moore's each way tip is Michita, who came clear of a moderate field at Goodwood. Despite Murtagh choosing Adored, Willoughby felt Sail would come out best of the O'Brien camp. And, Clowrance won with more in hand than the distance she won by last time. But all three thought the Oaks would go to the Irish. I Think this was how the votes went. Duke: Katiyra, Saphira's Fire each way. Moore: Chinese White, Katiyra, Michita each way. Willoughby: Both Katiyra and Chinese White. CORONATION CUP Brendan Duke considered Getaway something of a good thing, for Epsom and beyond. All three thought it looked a two horse race. With Soldier Of Fortune the other with a good chance, soft going being very much in his favour. Willoughby thought MacArther over priced at around 16/1 but he may be a doubtful starter. Other Races, News Stan Moore had a couple of tips for Royal Ascot, well I say tips.... Blue ? (something I did not quite catch) a two year old filly for the Queen Mary. And one of Michael Bell's for the Coventry who was a dual Newmarket winner. Will try and work out who those are. Brendan Duke had some sad news of his Sammy The Snake who he believed could have been Group class. He will not be able to run for some time, being very fragile. Another enjoyable night with Brendan particularly entertaining. Ginge

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview so nobody thinks Murtagh's ride, King of Rome has a squeak? just backed it @ 16.0 for the derby.:)

[alexmac]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Think KIng of Rome has been supported today....? I have got Kandahar Run E/W at a big price and another decent price (IMO) about Tartan Bearer... Going to Epsom on Saturday - should be a good day out in the sun (fingers firmly crossed!)

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview does anyone think the draw will have an effect in the derby as it does in the dash

[bowles10]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview

does anyone think the draw will have an effect in the derby as it does in the dash

The dash is only over 5F & run on the straight course all downhill then uphill the final 300yds which finds a few out. The derby although over 1m 4f is all about getting the right position. Personally i like to see a horse take the race on as then there are no excuses. Epsom is a track that you can nick a lead on if you have a speed horse. Everything else wil try to be mid position round Tattenham corner then try to come down the outside, which can cause a problem as there is a camber across the course which is difficult to keep the horse straight if it becomes off balance.

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview thanks bowles, the reason i asked was because no horse has won the derby from stall 1,2 or 3 since 2000,but i understand what your saying

[Gingertipster]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview There is no real advantage in the draw at 1m4f. But a low drawn horse can be cut off if not getting away well. Being stuck on the inner in behind horses. With those in high numbers risking being caught out wide. So a middle draw might be a slight advantage, but only slight. A draw near a pace horse may be advantageous too, e.g. O'Briens pacemaker, New Approach and Curtain Call may well be near the front. Ginge

[welshman443]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview thanks for your thoughts on the draw ginge

[bowles10]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Been looking at the card & surprised to see Washington Irving trading at around 33/1 for the race now. Expected to develop into one of the leading middle distance 3yo's this year, has disappointed on both appearances finishing 2nd at leopardstown by a shd when it looked the likely winner before just not having enough to win. O'Brien reported the horse in good shape after that run. Next in the Derrinstown stud stakes Casual Conquest slammed the horse 6L as Washingto Irving didnt pick up at all that day. Will be interesting to see who rides as I think Heffernan could get this up in the placings if he gets it held up & then unleashes down that home straight. It is bred to stay so hoping the step up in trip will work. Casual Conquest has done nothing wrong to date & deserves to be favourite. I can see this one going for home early & trying to slip the field, if it gets the rail could take some stopping & has the form profile of a Derby winner being lightly raced 2 wins from 2. Ryan Moore stays with Tartan Bearer & the Dante has proved one of the better trials over the years & I can see it still getting the better of Frozen Fire over this extra distance. Final 3 Casual Conquest Tartan Bearer Washington Irving

[billy the punter]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Talking Oaks, if any of the last 14 winners (bar Casual Look) were to line up on Friday I'd happily take 4/5 any one of them. I cannot remember an Oaks this uninspiring. My ante-post bets, albeit at small stakes, were disastrous with Kitty Matchem, Laughter and Screen Star all NR's. Not sure why Look Here is two/three/four times of the price of Moonstone, Michita, Adored. It's not that I'm ruling out the above, far from it, it's just that I think Look Here should be priced closer to them. Will have a little dabble E/W on her, currently 40/1 with Hills.

[Maximus]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Funny how opinions differ Billy, I have never looked forward to an oaks more than this one. Indeed, Im moe excted about it than the derby. Though, it maybebecase I've been on Katiyra for months! I think the field is fascinaing with so many potential improvers.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview I think this Oaks has quite a few that could yet improve in to a good winner of the Oaks. Lush lashes's form is almost good enough without improving. Katiyra, Chinese White, Micheta....

[billy the punter]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview I think it's a personal thing to be honest chaps. I never get a feel for a race when most of the main protagonists are Irish trained. I remember feeling the same for the Hawk Wing/High Chapp Derby.

[diamond1924]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview "Brendan Duke thought Saphira's Fire had an each way chance" I usually make sure I read Martin Dwyer's column in the "Racing Ahead Weekend" paper (free Racing-Edge.com" ratings for all Saturdays cards:clap). Being involved in the Sheikh Hamdan organisation he's worth listening to and his advice seems trustworthy. After sticking a lucky wee double (4/1 and evs) on his two winners (one of his, one of Richard Hills's) I was intrigued by his summary of his outside chance on Saphira's Fire. Dwyer knows the time of day so a tenner e/w today at 40/1 in William Hills isn't going to break the bank. :hope

[Gingertipster]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 4:05 Epsom Oaks Lush Lashes has the best form and I would've been confident her winning had it been on the firm side. However, she ran poorly on reappearance (heavy) and her fluent action is probably best suited by a sound surface. At around 7/2 it is worth a saver (on good-firm she'd be 2/1). Although out of a mare by July Cup winner Anabaa, she should stay the trip. Chinese White is from the cross between Darshaan (by his son Dalakhani) and Saddlers Wells family so successful in 1 ½ mile classics. Impressive winner of a listed 9 ½f trial on soft, by 4 ½ lengths. But although she has improvement to come, her price (imo) is too short compared to her form. Katiyra was second in a 1000 trial on reappearance, bred to be far better at 1 ½ miles. Raced on an easy surface. Is inexperienced but at the price is well worth backing. Have seen Clowrance twice this year, she does not stand out on looks. Staying on well both times, will be suited by the increased test of stamina and acts well on soft. Her price has contracted only due to Frankie taking the ride. Sail is capable of better but only just beat Sugar Mint who is not thought a serious threat here. Cape Amber chased home Lush Lashes and was given a lot to do, but Lush Lashes won easily. Is a half sister to 7f winner Nyramba and from the family of sprinter Gayanne and is a doubtful stayer. Has a fluent action, unraced on a soft surface and doubt she will act on it. Adored like Chinese White from that same cross. Has a high head carriage but is genuine enough. Can improve further and is the Murtagh chosen one. But the O'Brien team are yet to find a top filly this term. Moonstone was staying on well after being badly outpaced in the Musidora (4^th). Only had her first run this year (like Peeping Fawn). Can improve, especially given a far greater test of stamina. May be worth a saver if (as I expect) punters go against the third string. Saw Micheta at both Newbury (sweated up) and Goodwood, when much more relaxed in the preliminaries. A big scopey filly who acted well on the undulations at the Sussex track. Did not beat much but stretched clear in the final furlong. Should stay 1 ½ miles and won her maiden on a soft surface. Looks over priced. Savethisdanceforme is interesting, particularly if more rain falls at Epsom. Ran well on reappearance (heavy) and won a listed race by nine lengths (good-soft). Disappointed in two Guineas, outpaced at Newmarket and the firm surface against her in Ireland. Stoutly bred on the dam's side of the family. Capable of better on a soft surface / over further. Last year I backed Peeping Fawn at forty something /1 (the only time I backed her). 74/1 looks more than double what it should be. My prices to beat on good-soft. Lush Lashes 11/4, Katiyra 11/2, Chinese White 13/2, Micheta 8/1, Clowrance 11/1, Adored 15/1, Sail 20/1, Cape Amber 20/1, Moonstone 22/1, Savethisdanceforme 33/1, Look Here 125/1, Saphira's Fire 125/1, Sugar Mint 200/1, Tiffany Diamond 200/1, Miracle Seeker 800/1, Ice Queen 1000/1. 3:25 Epsom Coronation Cup Getaway impressed as a top class horse in the Jockey Club Stakes, giving weight away, won easily. Race has worked out very well. Showed more speed than previously. A fine big colt, fourth in the Arc but before that thought of as a stayer. Acts well on a soft surface. Will take a lot of beating if acting on the course. Soldier Of Fortune's best form (by some way) is the Irish Derby win on soft. If that run does not flatter him has a chance here. Youmzain is capable but is a stayer at the trip who is always held up. Needs things to go his way. Not the easiest to win with and possibly has a bit of temperament. Red Rocks won on reappearance but had the form to. Versatile tactically but it is difficult to see him improve. MacArther's win at Chester promised more, producing a fine turn of foot to go clear. May well have gone close with a clear run in the St Leger. Probably has not reached his best yet. Papal Bull is a dog, only consenting to put it all in when he feels like it. Turbo Linn is interesting, progressive form last year. Promising reappearance, may be able to improve further. However, trainer not in great form and would be a little surprising if she beats an in form Getaway. Multidimentional needs to improve dramatically for the step up in trip. Anna Pavlova looks too exposed for this grade. My prices to beat on good-soft. Getaway 5/4, Soldier Of Fortune 11/4, MacArther 12/1, Youmzain 14/1, Red Rocks 16/1, Papal Bull 33/1, Turbo Linn 50/1, Multidimentional 66/1, Anna Pavlova 66/1, Song Of Hiawatha 2000/1, Big Robert 2000/1, Ginge

[JackJarvis]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview The Oaks looks a belter to me with several progressive and top class fillies going to post. Could go any way but I thought Lush Lashes looked a bit special last time out and she may just have too much for them.

[Evenstephen]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview It's one of the most open looking Oaks for a few years and with Lush Lashes at 3/1 the bookies seem to think so too. There are two that I like the look of and they are Adored & Katiyra and I'll back them both to be placed at 5.0 & 2.82 respectively. :)

[billy the punter]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview

Talking Oaks, if any of the last 14 winners (bar Casual Look) were to line up on Friday I'd happily take 4/5 any one of them. I cannot remember an Oaks this uninspiring. My ante-post bets, albeit at small stakes, were disastrous with Kitty Matchem, Laughter and Screen Star all NR's. Not sure why Look Here is two/three/four times of the price of Moonstone, Michita, Adored. It's not that I'm ruling out the above, far from it, it's just that I think Look Here should be priced closer to them. Will have a little dabble E/W on her, currently 40/1 with Hills.

Luvvly jubbly

[mileni4uk]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Nice one, Billy :clap

[TheRat]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Well done Billy

[Gingertipster]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Brilliance from Billy! Well done mate. Oaks winner comes back to Wiltshire. Ginge

[sportstrader]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview Ginger, Give it up mate. You haven't got a bloody clue!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Derby / Oaks Preview

Ginger, Give it up mate. You haven't got a bloody clue!

This is the third time you say such thing for someone and I am one click away from banning you. Ginge has 30% profit in his thread. Yea, he doesn't have a clue. For not picking the 33/1 winner in one of the hardest races in the callender. Do you want me to ban him? Just tell me and it is done. He clearly has no clue of horse racing. Now a reminder if you already forgot my first sentence. Another such comment and you're gone.