Grex Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion That's a quite interesting perspective! I haven't tried imposing an upper limit on the perceived "value" of a bet but' date=' having just played with my spreadsheet, it does indeed improve the results! Of course, more testing is needed but it's a start... Thanks Grex :ok[/quote'] You´re welcome...... I hope it helps you come up with THE system that is going to put all bookies out of business :lol...... but then, where would we addicts bet ? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion [i reached 200 posts..... I was expecting to upgrade to THREE rotating balls.... but NO :cry:cry] You'll get three balls @ 250 posts... :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Excellent....... I´m almost tempted to post 30 meaningless, inane posts just to reach 250 ;). And just to save the jokers´time..... I know, all my posts are meaningless and inane :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Ok, I ran my calculations through the West Ham match and the probabilities are: DivDateHomeTeamAwayTeamProb(H)Prob(D)Prob(A)Div08/4/2008West HamPortsmouth44.4%27.0%28.5% Thanks Grex for the figures. They make interesting reading, with some of our probabilities being close, while some others are almost identical. I haven't seen any odds yet though, so I am not yet sure what is supposed to be "value"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
statman john Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion I'm out of this, lost interest i'm afraid. Sorry for any inconvinience :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 5, 2008 Author Share Posted April 5, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jk Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Well if you staked 2pts on each of Saturdays games you'd have; Staked 18pts Returned 17.2pts P.L -0.8pts :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Well if you staked 2pts on each of Saturdays games you'd have; Staked 18pts Returned 17.2pts P.L -0.8pts :( The way I see it, you would stake in total 14pts with the 2pts in each of the Arsenal - Liverpool and Newcastle - Reading matches split between the Draw and Away result, meaning that you would get 3.2 + 2*3.4 + 2*2.1 = 14.2pts return :tongue2 Or am I completely wrong here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batigol77 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Hey All, Im a newbie here!! But Id very much like to get involved with this system and add my predictions / thoughts. Ive had reasonable success in my betting days, but never really calculated prices / probabilities together, just glanced at available prices and gaged a solution. Following on from that, can I firstly ask, how do you guys get your predicting percentages and sometimes decimals of percentages so so accurate?? Please help!! Any help gratefully appreciated. And in return hopefully I can pinpoint my thoughts / predictions and benefit the system you have going. Cheers All!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
statman john Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Batigol Im a newbie too and like you i would like to know a little more about how people are calculating their percentages. http://groups.google.com/group/fixed-odds-soccer is a link to some stuff i tried posting on t'internet last year to try and get some help/collaborators. although there is a load of information in it (i was basically pulling all sorts of data in the hope of finding some snippets of info) i basically calculated my percentages using a rather crude weighting of overall results, home, away, last 8 matches etc. it doesnt seem too bad on tricky games, however it is useless at percentages of hot favourites but if you just look at the favourite teams stats then that brings it more in line with other people's predictions. if anyone could hep point me as to where I am going wrong id be really grateful cheers j Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Following today's results, that would be 16.7pts return from 14pts outlay (based on 2pts per game stake) I guess ... maybe some food for thought :unsure :welcome to statman and batigol ... I am not too sure whether these probabilities are " ... so so accurate ..." as you put it :D but they usually are estimated through some kind of model/system/calculations etc ... the simplest being something like: the percentage of games ending in a H/D/A result for a team ... to things more complicated such as probability models etc. I am not sure whether people are willing to share their method of estimation but some information on the probabilities that I've posted are given here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52802 Rushian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
statman john Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion hi rushian thanks for the link, i couldnt find much details about how your system worked and the link stopped in october. did you give up on the system or just on posting the results? As i understand it any system based on stats is dodgy at the start of the season as you dont have reliable data on how that years teams are performing, also teams like man utd etc will drop a few points unexpectedly (same with the end of the season). Just wondered if you made profit from the rest of the season? Batigol, im interested in how you are getting on so please feel free to drop me a line some time. cheers all and good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Mr Hi Guys have read the thread with interest, as I have also produced a model for prediction outcomes 1 X 2. Just a couple of pointers for what they're worth. you talked about the situation when the Home team is favourite and suggested that the next highest probability should be the draw not the away! The way I see it is purely a mathematical one. Lets say a maximum of 6 goals are scored in anyone match. It doesn't matter if there are more the principle remains the same - You could have any of the following results: 1-0,2-0,2-1,3-1,3-2,3-0, 0-1,0-2,1-2,1-3,2-3,0-3 you could also have 0-0,1-1,2-2,3-3. You therefore land up with 6/16 chances for a home win = 37.5% the same for the aways and 25% for the draws. Take in to account Home advantage and you land up with higher percentage of Home wins a lower percentage of away wins and the draws remaining about the same. Just a thought - Don't abandon your ides too early a couple of weeks is nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 9, 2008 Share Posted April 9, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Hi Guys, Interesting stuff. I am paper trialling a '1X2' system myself at the moment. I am only eeking out the 'value' bets for what my system regards as the most likely outcome, and there has to be a 15% buffer to next most likely. Very very early days so far, but I am happy to share my Premiership percentages if you are happy to include them in your calculations. Just done this weekend's... looks a tricky weekend, no qualifiers for my system - only Everton and Man City value prices and neither are big enough [8.5% or so] favourites. Match 1 X 2 Birmingham v Everton 33.46 24.32 42.22 Bolton v West Ham 44.52 24.40 31.08 Derby v Aston Villa 33.04 26.00 40.96 Portsmouth v Newcastle 44.74 32.16 23.10 Reading v Fulham 47.52 22.39 30.09 Sunderland v Man City 36.49 18.32 45.12 Tottenham v Middlesbrough 36.54 36.11 27.35 Liverpool v Blackburn 50.54 31.71 17.75 Man Utd v Arsenal 49.53 27.15 23.33 Chelsea v Wigan 78.17 15.86 5.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 9, 2008 Author Share Posted April 9, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion hi rushian thanks for the link, i couldnt find much details about how your system worked and the link stopped in october. did you give up on the system or just on posting the results? As i understand it any system based on stats is dodgy at the start of the season as you dont have reliable data on how that years teams are performing, also teams like man utd etc will drop a few points unexpectedly (same with the end of the season). Just wondered if you made profit from the rest of the season? Batigol, im interested in how you are getting on so please feel free to drop me a line some time. cheers all and good luck John, I am still monitoring that system (although I haven't updated since the weekend) but just for completeness, as I have already identified some improvements. I stoped posting as it was obvious there was something wrong and didn't want to influence anyone wrongly! :lol The rest of the season saw the system recording heavy losses only to bounce back at some point (although it's still at negative :cry). I'll probably go back to that post when the season finishes just to have the final results there. (By the way, it remained a paper trail, so I am not too bothered!) Samba_SamPa, thanlks for the figures. Will try to aggregate them by Friday with everyone else's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
statman john Posted April 11, 2008 Share Posted April 11, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 11, 2008 Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Sorry lads, I had to leave the country at short notice (no, the police are not after me).... and I forgot to bring my excel files with me.... so, I won´t be able to contribute to this weekend´s probabilities. I will be back for weekend 19/20 April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 12, 2008 Author Share Posted April 12, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
statman john Posted April 12, 2008 Share Posted April 12, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Rushian, the "value" is likely to be on the longshots i think we all accept that. looking at the figures id be quite happy folowing the value on bolton and pompie. i think it is also worth laying tottenham at that sort of price. My other thoughts on these predictions move more into trading than fixed odds. If you can bet in play to get the price you want after no longer than x amount of minutes then is this worth doing? i think 1st goal average is about 35 minutes, if my team hits the price after 15 minutes id consider it worth a go? My other thought is how well these predictions are calculating betfair starting prices. if they are pretty accurate for the starting prices, would it be reasonabe to assume that you can back or lay the price on a friday with the expectation it will fall in line with the model predictions? you can then just trade out before a ball is even kicked? I dunno, maybe it was too much beer last night! good luck all with whatever bets you have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted April 12, 2008 Share Posted April 12, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 12, 2008 Author Share Posted April 12, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Well, blindly following the value bets is not producing positive results.... but, as I suggested in a previous post, some value bets are too much value (if that makes sense!)..... I have found that, by limiting selections to value percentages of between approximately 95% and 115% generally produces better results. Now that I have access to my excel files again, I will try to produce an analysis on this basis and see what it produces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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