WoodyTHFC Posted June 4, 2008 Author Share Posted June 4, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3164pts Returned 3660.37pts P/L +496.37 Yield +15.68% Strike rate 38.49% (82/213) Just one tonight. Leop 7.00 Cartimandua 7/2 var bog 15 pts Interesting sort last year and put in the 1000 Guineas for one where she ran a respectable race if not a touch outclassed, since then has been moved to a more realistic level and produced the goods and been impressive whilst doing so, won the last three and a couple of nice wins in listed contests including one over market rival who even though it may have needed the run somewhat was still put in her place by this nice sort who is in good form and capable of stepping up to a group 3 seemingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 6, 2008 Author Share Posted June 6, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3179pts Returned 3660.37pts P/L +481.37 Yield +15.14% Strike rate 38.31% (82/214) Other prices up later. Epsom 4.05 Lush Lashes 7/2 lad 25 pts Sail 16/1 sky 12.5 pts e.w. Reluctantly leaving out Savethisdanceforme who i have put up here countless times and whilst the trip and a bit of potential cut could be favoured to unleash potential at this level, I favour Lush Lashes and Sail. Lush Lashes put up the best trial for me, romped in lto at York, I cant see that form being overturned myself and I dont see the extra trip a real problem, pretty good run from her in the Guineas too, very fast finishing then having originally got a bit outpaced for me rather than failure to handle the dip as suggested at times by some. Slight question mark over ability to handle the track but that goes for all of these really and I prefer to have this ones experience to help her handle the track then the possibly talented but still inexperienced, Chinese White and Katirya. Very soft ground would have been a bit of a concern after no show on heavy and behind STDFM fto this year but drying all the time so that also favours. Looks the stand out candidate. Sail would be my other pick. May not be first choice on bookings, a bit surprising to me but Moore no bad thing is he :) Sail was impressive for me at Chester lto. The market spoke volumes, i was on the solid and reliable sugar mint and hills' filly got first run and sail was a bit free early on too. However the well backed Sail picked up well and overcome sugar mint with a touch of class I thought and relatively cosily. Still a bit green but much more improvement, which is needed, I expect to come and that looked a typical Chester style trial for this race which has been seen to good effect of late. 2.10 Emerald Wilderness 7.5 pts e.w king does well with his flat winners and this one looked no exception when winning lto on a/w although turf is no problem either. Previously had solid handicap form last season and was an ok hurdler too, only three pound higher than winning lto with seemingly a slightly improved effort, solid option. 2.45 Smart Instinct 7.5 pts e.w officially just the one pound well in but that could be argued somewhat, may well be better than that a small touch, certainly slightly luckless lto and even the time before, has a string of solid hanidcap efforts to his name on the back of recent efforts and it wouldnt surprise me to see this race targetted by his canny trainer 3.25 Getaway 25 pts 11/8 Looks a real class performer in a class race. Soldier of fortune, Macurthur, Youmzain are all top horses and even a dark horse like Multidimensional could improve at this trip. However it is hard to get away (no pun intended) from Fabre's horse's striking effort lto, romped in at hq and form boosted by Sixties Icon who Getaway made to look average, travelled with ease that day, previously suggested it needed further but off slowish early pace he still has speed to win and with ease. Clearly improved for last year when behind Youmzain in the Arc. I was with Youmzain and Dylan Thomas in that famous Arc last year as some of you might remember here and Yomzain is a talented sort to provide a test and should come for the run lto. however whilst he is a fair e.w alternative he is tricky to win with as his record is showing. SOF may just need the run and need it bog like to be at his best. So Fabre, who has a top record in the race, can land another Coronation Cup. 4.50 Ignazu Falls 15 pts Trip the key here for me. Been running with some credit last season and start of this but was just not quite getting home over a mile and often being caught at the death in fair races. however the drop in trip today should help in that regard and can give Godolphin a much needed winner. 5.25 Slugger O Toole 15 pts Dubai Meydan 7.5 pts e.w Slugger O toole I put up lto when won a tactical race at hq, race at the time looked to have some nice improving sorts in and whilst not been seen by all the horses who have come out of it, soem have run well since. Only a few pounds higher for that win which does not seem to excessive for clearly a talented horse who has interesting owners and a progressive profile. draw may have been better. Dubai Meydan is a horse who I could see suddenly clicking thsi season, a big sort who should really come alive at 3 put up a win lto in an average race but did it fairly nicely despite highish head carriage from memory, clearly thought of (dewhurst raced at 2) and moore interesting booking, also recently geded. Good 7.20 Speed Gifted 7.5 pts e.w Very interesting runner like lots of these, Godolphins two and the previously unlucky Raincoat. Could do with a bit further possibly and reservations fto but looks to have some class in him and typical improver for the trainer, certainly was last season as showed by York win lto over subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner, Celestial Halo, Spencer always an interesting booking for Cumani and interestingly put in this level first up, could dent any future and possibly ebor possibles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 6, 2008 Author Share Posted June 6, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Emerald Wilderness 6/1 spo Smart Instinct 5/1 var bog Ignazu Falls 15/8 cor Slugger o toole 9/2 spo Dubai Meydan 8/1 wh Speed Gifted 4/1 wh change to 15 pt win although a little bit concerned about it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 7, 2008 Author Share Posted June 7, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3344pts Returned 3725.995pts P/L +381.955 Yield +11.42% Strike rate 37.66% (84/223) Struggle yesterday, biggest stakes on big one today. Eps 4.00 Tartan Bearer 11/2 var bog 20 pts e.w (remember 1/4 odds) New Approach 11/2 var bog 20 pts e.w. After much deliberation the two I like for the Derby are Tartan Bearer and New Approach. Casual Conquest was close but it was just a bit concerning how he was the first off the bit in his trial even though he picked up so well, doing that at Epsom in a derby with his experience would not be a help at all and could be crucial. Mind you I thought Look Here's inability to truly handle Lingfield wouldnt help here her in the Oaks and she was similarly inexperienced like the first 3 in that race and it didnt cause her any problems. Anyway Tartan Bearer gets the edge for me from Stoutes three. It is a big improver and only on its fourth start today, further improvement is very much on the cards for a horse that may not be flashy but just seems to do enough as proven lto and reportedly at home. Its Dante win was pretty good in my book, ok not necessarily flashy but that might just be that it only just does enough and no more. What was impressive firstly was the big improvement showed from winning maiden a couple of weeks earlier and also its professional attitude showed to win, in contrast to the runner up (surprisingly left out by murtagh imo). I think he will get the trip and moore is a fine jockey to have on your side. Doctor Fremantle would be my next choice from stoute especially with form boosted yesterday and also that potential other formlines like Bronze Cannon and even All the Aces not here. Also on lines through unefer and Pampas Cat, it arguably has the beating of Tajaweed. New Approach I couldnt leave out. Sure there are doubts, has it really trained on, temprement issues, will it stay, not ideal prep but what must be remembered is how classy this horse is. It has form in the book, it has beaten Curtain call at 2, been the champion 2 year old, run twice second in the guineas, first run was very good in my book when he fought all the way to the line, crying out for further. I expect he will be settled in a bit more today, I dont see him front running at all and overall I think it is a real conetender, a lot has been said about the horse and more so the trainer but he cant be left out for me. The already proven class act and I think over further his class will be proven even more. 3.15 Hogmaneigh 6/1 var 7.5 pts e.w and Morinqua 14/1 betfr 7.5 pts e.w. Hogmaneigh won this race last year off a lower mark and I like its chances to go in again, its form since then has been respectable at times and it looks pretty set up for this for me and I expect will be spot on, rider gets on very well with him and high draw enables a good position to be set in the dash for its late dash if you follow. One that will be up there is Morinqua who has loads of pace and stall 1 for here should help, they often say in the dash that draws 1,2 and 3 is no bad thing and not with this ones pace, win two starts ago over dark missle who ok disappointed afterwards but generally is a classy act who has group form at times, bold bid expected. 5.20 Gift horse 7/2 var bog 15 pts. Classy horse on his day and whilst not perhaps as good as he was once, he is still a fair horse and he has a huge race in him still and this could be it, looks set out for this race that he has raced well in before. Recent form on figures suggest decline but that is not always been the case, ran well in a couple of races without the luck which his style needs, spencer on board today to try and perform the perfect hold up ride and which he can muck up on the horse as proven before but if the luck happens, this horse has taht little bit of class to come charging late to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 12, 2008 Author Share Posted June 12, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3474pts (rememeber a bit for Collection) Returned 3972.245pts P/L +498.245 Yield +14.34% Strike rate 38.15% (87/228) Derby worket out well with the one two. Just one today. Hay 3.35 Rash Judgement 7.5 pts e.w 4/1 cor Playing the safe option here really. Talented horse who put up the odd decent performance at 2 notably behind Generous Thought on his last start at 2 but it was his start fto this year that impressed me. Third behind the impressive and subsequent winner, Corrybrough at san was a good run and it must also be considered that he was staying on over 5f that day and if anything a touch unlucky not to get a really clear run. I backed it after that at York but quite simply it didnt get in the race as it found 5f at york too quick, today over 6f it should be a bit more ideal and a bold bid expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evad Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Hi WoodyTHFC lloks like you having a lot of fun with thread and some good success well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 14, 2008 Author Share Posted June 14, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Hi WoodyTHFC lloks like you having a lot of fun with thread and some good success well done. Not going bad so far but a lot of the season to go and big week coming up next week with Royal Ascot. Staked 3489pts Returned 3972.245pts P/L +483.245 Yield +13.85% Strike rate 37.99% (87/229) Leic 9.15 Hawaana 7/1 cor 7.5 pts e.w On bits of two year old I am very interested in this one, fourth on debut in a hot race at asc. the top three were clear incl. the likes of Atlantic Sport (sadly injured atm) and Aqlaam (St James' Palace entry), then beat Doctor Fremantle before being midfield in the big sales race in Ire. This season has two average runs but to give some benefit of doubt, the first was in a very slowly run race that he could never get in and it was a similar story lto, now dropped in a class a bit and supposedly now spot on, should have every chance if building on two year old form. San 1.55 Blue Spartan 7/2 var bog 15 pts. Put this up two starts ago when it was really keen at Wind. so then I left it lto when it won, typical. However it was fairly impressive by winning lto and built on previous promise. Interestingly pitched into the same maiden that the then promising Diamond tycoon (same stable) routed rivals like Lucarno and Pipedreamer a year ago and he made some late progress into midfield then. As I said it was too green on its next start but win lto fairly decent and chances in handicap for first time off 80 with Dettori on board. York 2.15 Ask the Butler 13/8 var bog 15 pts Not a race to waste millions on with a hots of doubts about some of the riders but in francesca cumani, trainers daughter :tongue2 there is a rider who has won the last two years and is goodish value for three pounds claim. Cumani himself has won this race the last three years and this one looks to have a similar profile, won lto despite big problems in running and on bits of form from last year similarly respected liek run behind veracity. Secret Dancer was impressive lto and rates as the danger. 2.50 Granston 9/2 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Backed this lto and as I said at the time it got a terrible ride imo. Was cruising in typical style and the suddenly the jockey seemed to lack any strength as it went backwards between horses despite still travelling well and then right at the death, under no pressure really it was flying so it just missed out on the places. Raised on slightly for that run and that is fair for me, still looks decently handicapped despite being an older horse, two starts back it beat a horse giving weight to who is now 97 rated, this is only 84. Likes even a bigger field than this with its travelling style but this will do and strong claims to amke up for lto. 3.25 Ancien Regime 5/1 bog boy 7.5 pts e.w I like Meydan princess but i fear it could get outpaced here so I go for a horse who seemed like a performer who needed this trip a couple of starts ago and showed that lto when winning despite verring across the track, seems to have lots of ability and capable of taking the step up, generally travels well which should help in a race of this nature and hopefully high will be ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 17, 2008 Author Share Posted June 17, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3564pts Returned 4005.06pts P/L +441.06 Yield +12.37% Strike rate 38.03% (89/234) Upping the stakes for Asc this week :hope 2.30 Finsceal Beo 8/1 spo 12.5 pts e.w Tough tough race to start with, lots of form from everywhere, lots of questions, will tariq stay if truely run, cesare likes asc. but is seemingly found wanting at this level, what about o'briens, two aga khan horses seem to have strongish form but sageburg may not like it this quick. Anyway I've gone for Finsceal beo. Undoubtedly a class act to start with last year and showed that with top win in guineas (eng, ire. win wasnt as good) in quick conditions, however hard campaign took its toll as asked for far too much by her trainer (3 guineas in no time whatsoever) and form weakened and didnt seem to get the trip when increased last year. On formlines with Darjina it is seen to be wanting at times but that was not the FB of the Eng Guineas version imo and lto in ire behind Duke of Marmalade, I believe that FB showed something like the form of her Guineas first win. That was over further, 10.5f, but despite producing that encouraging return to form, she possibly did not see out the trip and certainly not as well as the winner, 2f out she appeared to be travelling equally as well if not better as DOM. A strong mile today I think will suit and with pacemakers on the cards here that is very possible and with FB seemingly returning to something like her early 3 year old form she is the e.w pick in a tough race to call. 3.05 Fleeting Spirit 9/4 var 25 pts Awesome performance lto by this one. Smashed the track record and was quite simply stunning, everything about that race was class from this filly, didnt even get the best of leads into the race and arguably not on the best of the ground but still a classy winner and a reproduction of that makes her tough to beat here imo. She already had class as shown at 2 when behind Natagora and in front of Kingsgate Native and as long as she doesnt 'bounce' so to speak then a stand out chance and imo will win. Of the rivals I probably like Magnus best who seems to like this trip more than further unlike the other Aussie, takeover target. However they could be playing second fiddle to this filly who i dont see to be harmed by low draw with smallish field and possible lack of some low pace, french horse excepted. 3.45 Twice Over 9/1 vc 12.5 pts e.w HTN will be hard to beat in these conditions but is just a fraction short for me, I made it just a touch bigger myself so going for an e.w alternative and due to stamina I give the pick to Cecil's horse over Ravens Pass who should love the ground and would have been a banker for me in the Jersey tomorrow but not over what is likely to be a strong mile. Twice Over arguably flopped lto in the Dante with blood count a possible reason and also maybe didnt see out the trip as well although i wouldnt call it a conclusive non stayer at that trip. However even despite a 'poor' run he still was only a couple of lengths behind the derby runner up who has improved since but even still it was not a shocker for a horse who after the craven was all the rage. Twice Over won the Craven over Ravens Pass and for me still has improvement from that run and that is the key for me, he was undefeated before the Dante and if it is possible to ignore that run, arguably it isnt, then it is still much respected, further improvement is possible and I see a strong mile really suiting this ones 'stamina' and I dont see it getting oupaced due to a high cruising speed, e.w alternative to the fav. 4.20 Orizaba 7/2 var bog 25 pts Tough to assess some of these 2 year old races and sometimes impressions say it all and on impressions I have to go with channon's orizaba, who does well with his two year olds in general but especially at the big meetings. orizaba romped home on debut at newb. won by nearly 10 lengths and I dont think he was beating nobodys either, some behind have nice entries and have at times given the form some substance. Orizaba looked a real class act that day, travelled with style, was backed well beforehand too and picked up and the time was good too, much quicker than the other maiden, queen's horse from and also not that far behind the performance by listed winner fat boy on the card. changed hands since then and dettori booked today and on the impression created at newb. he has a nice ride. 4.55 Liberate 11/2 var 12.5 pts e.w Considered many for this, especially Som tala who deserves a big one but could be done for by rise for non winning effort. However Liberate is the pick despite a draw of 3 which is not great. liberate is a good hurdler, had nice form as a four year old behind the likes of katchit (looks much better now, originally I didnt really rate it) and on good ground really seems to perform as shown lto when winning over a trip he has been crying out for over that sphere 3m. Returns to the flat today where he was a reasonably progressive type at one point but considering how his trainer often sets out some for this, he is very much respected, at epsom he did something similar and the time produced by his winner at epsom wasnt that much slower than the derby. Spencer a reasonably eye catching booking, should get the trip draw not ideal but could be quite well handicapped if bringing something like hurdle form to flat. 5.30 Silver Shoon 5/1 pp (4 places) 12.5 pts e.w Another really tough race but interesting and possibly significant that Weld puts this one in this race rather than group races which were other possibilities and which he could still do later in the week. Three runs so far and lacking a win but has produced some top efforts at times in ire. behind some of the better 2 early year olds over there. That has been shown by improvement on each run including a listed event lto when just beaten and from which the suggestion was a strong 5f would suit, should get that today and interesting decision to put her in this race rather than other engagements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 18, 2008 Author Share Posted June 18, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3714pts Returned 4112.73pts P/L +398.73 Yield +10.73% Strike rate 38.33% (92/240) Three placed horses yesterday but no outright wins. A few short ones today. Asc 2.30 Calming Influence 9/2 var bog 12.5 pts e.w Jupiter Pluvius 6/1 var 12.5 pts e.w Not quite sure why Frankie isnt on board Calming influence but either way I still like the horse, it looked a potentially smart prospect when winning well last season on its only start and then lto on its first run of the season it put up a classy performance. i was on Stimulation then but Calimng influence picked him up with ease and considering it was just his second ever start there is every reason to think he will come on for that even more. Arguably one of goldophins best chances this week. jupiter Pluvius was poor on re appearnce in 2000 Guineas Ire. but Im tempted to forgive that given how much O'Brien's always seem to need their first run. Of far more interest is that this one beat Famous Name right at the end of last season and did it well and relatively cosily, how it was reportedly the ballydole no.1 for the guineas ahead of HTN for all of the winter and how on certain breeding lines it may find 7f more suitable than a mile and even in time a sprinting trip. 3.05 Sabana Perdida 18/5 spo 25 pts Third in this last year behind nannina and satwa queen showing that she likes the ground and the place. that was a top run at 50/1 that day and for a start I dont think there is anything of that quality in the field today and also since then she has improved according to her trainer, that is seen by two nice wins since then including a win at ling. on her reappearance on quick ground which clearly is no problem at all. Looks to a have good chance. 3.45 Duke of Marmalade 8/5 spo 25 pts I liked this horse last year when O'brien placed it poorly at times imo and often used it as effectively as pace maker over an inadequte mile, it still ran well but it looked to me as if it needed further, when it got it, it was behind dylan thomas/authorized which is no shame at all and indeed at york it pushed a class act like notnowcato all the way to the line. this season it has been running over further and the result has been two group 1 wins and decent ones at that, it seems to have improved at 4 and noticeably it is one of the few o'brien horses who have won fto this season like HTN,Yeats (the top ones), that suggets soem class to me and he looks a class act in general at this trip, indeed I wouldnt rule out the Arc by the end of the season. There are some big dangers, pheonix tower noticeably and even pipedreamer if he can reverse earlier hq form with that one (i dont see ask or sixties icon running at their totally ideal trip despite their wins lto) but Duke Of marmalade looks the stand out for me. 4.20 Bankable 11/5 spo 25 pts Decision of the week, are you with the short priced bankable or not? I am with him. yes there has to be question marks in a field of this size, does anyone know how the draw will pan out. However Bankable has left a really striking impression this season and last, I saw it in its maiden at hq and since then it has kept on winning. He likes ascot and is proven in a variety of conditions here and his wins have all been fairly cosy this season and towards the end of last. whatever the handicapper tried has to do so far has proved in vain and lto when he hacked up in a listed event beating a subsequent group win proved his undoubted class and ability to step up into a group performer of some kind in the future. He is at least 14 pounds well in and whatever way I look around it, I cant get away from that fact, this undoubtedly has been a plan and dettori is generally a good man for this situation. if I had to go for a couple e.w then I would go for Docofthebay, enigmatic but loves this big fields and first time blinkers are very interestinag and Oceana Gold, who chased home Bankable last season once and if you can ignore his last run he is respected however i am with bankable. 4.55 Danehill Destiny 15/4 spo 25 pts Nice type this. Only two wins but won well both times and clearly thought of well by connections, win at hq was pretty impressive and that was also at a time when the trainer wasnt going so well, then stepped up to face prolific who was much touted and didnt get the allowances a filly normally would get when facing the colts yet she still won very well and was always holding the much touted rival, clearly she has a lot of talent and speed for this contest. One of my stronger 2 year old fancies this week. 5.30 Makaaseb 9/2 var 12.5 pts e.w Left a really good impression on debut on quickish ground when winning and was so impressive that she was a really short price for the subsequent rockfell which in 2005 and 2006 was the key trial for the 1000 Guineas. She disappointed a bit for me in that hq race but fto this season she showed that she still has some promise and was arguably a bit unlucky in a listed contest, she should come on for that and given this is just her fourth ever start, improvement very much on and hills has chosen this although I would prefer it if he wasnt on tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 18, 2008 Share Posted June 18, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 2 winners aint too shabby Woody, keep it up mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 19, 2008 Author Share Posted June 19, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 3889pts Returned 4292.73pts P/L +403.73 Yield +10.38% Strike rate 38.05% (94/247) Very small profit yesterday. 2.30 South Central 3/1 tote 25 pts Cerito 11/2 tote 12.5 pts e.w South Central hacked up on debut up north and was hugely impressive, 13l winner, clearly has bags of speed, might not have beat world beaters although the fav that day is a horse i like. However left a striking impression and connections have already struck gold in this race before with a similar speedy sort. Cerito was also impressive at bath, didnt win by anything like as far as south cenral but travelled well, picked up and was a really easy winner. The consensus straight away was for asc. and that is fairly signidicant firstly die to its ownership but more so due to the trainer who has a lot of nice 2 year olds and clearly thinks this one is good enough for that. 3.05 Changing Skies 36/5 12.5 pts e.w difficult race but a few of the key horses i dont think quite get the trip so one of the stayers is much respected and that is this one just ahead of dar re mi and the o'brien horse. Changing Skies is still a maiden but has run in some hottish races and lto was quite eye catching. Behind sail and sugar mint, she stayed on relentlessly despite not handling the track, admittedly the form has not been boosted as I thought it may have been but this horse looks to be wanting much more further which she gets today and i anticiapte she will like the track much more, place claims. 3.45 Coastal Path 21/10 25 pts i would have been very keen on Septimus who is better for me than Yeats as OR suggest and it is also an improver at the trip? However he is not here and Coastal Path can take advantage. I dont know all the ins and outs of its form but what I do know is that it is unbeaten and has put up some good visual performances so far, this undoubtedly has been the plan. yeats is not going to get any better now and whilst he has won this race well the last two times he is coming up against an improving new star and I think he is vulnerable. wouldnt want to back the others to win. 4.20 Flawed Genius 10/1 var bog 12.5 pts e.w Virtual 16/1 bluesq 12.5 pts e.w 5 places still on. Would also advise the improving Throne of Power but I cant have too many on what really looks the worse bit of the draw. Certainly evidence is uggesting that low is a positive and even if they all come over it can take so much out of them that it proves fatal, although with asc. that could change today, wouldnt surprise me. Either way the high drawn horse Im going for is Flawed Genius who has stoute improver marked all over him, was a good second at hq and then lto had little luck in valuable handicap when often getting a luckless run and finishing just behind some that reoppose today and that he has a pull from, bold run expected as long as the draw isnt as crucial as yesterday. Virtual is a nice sort who is going the right way. Ran in some nice races last year behind two fancied types, before winning a hot race at hq fto this year and I expect him to confirm that form today with those from that that take him on today, lto in listed race was far from disgraced but just could never really get going on softish ground that may not have suited his strong travelling style, this race certainly will and chances. 4.55 Collection 6/1 var bog 15 pts e.w NAP of the whole meeting (was 10/1 this morning but immediately removed as soon as a 16/1 non runner occurs and nothing like that price now) Moynahan 14/1 cor 10 pts e.w. The non runner makes it only 3 places. Collection is the horse I backed ante post for the Derby at a huge 200/1, other firms went 33/1, in the end connections after some consideration decided not to go and have gone here instead which has to be respected. It has always been a horse highly thought of and the vibes im getting is that it is one of the trainers best horses in his yard including yesterdays jersey winner. Second on debut, he then won his maiden easily enough up north, he was disappointing on soft ground after that as connections felt it couldnt handle it properly. However its win lto in a handicap was sensational in terms of overcoming adversity, of a slowish pace the horse was free initially (not far of new approach style free) and then when settled down it went to make its challenge three/four times and got blocked off each time, whilst still cruising, eventually it got its gap widest of all and then scooted to the line for a cosy win eventually. As i say that was a hugely impressive win in the circumstances, I went to back it for the derby straight away as I mentioned. It reminded me of a win by Sun Classique earlier in the year in dubai when it was constantly blocked off before getting the gap right at the right moment and we know what that did after that. To put it into context the horse only won a handicap and is rated lowest of all off 93 but I cant see that lasting, this looks a really progressive and well thought of horse and capable of stepping up. I would have put it in the TTTF if I could but i couldnt due to it remarkably not being there as I see it progressing with a couple of wins at least and maybe in group company soon. Very much looking foward to this running. Have also included my 2000 Guineas outsider, Moynahan. He ran an encouraging race in the 2000G when sixth eventually which is a top effort for an unexperienced horse. Clearly he was really well thought of because ahead of the likes of River proud, General Elliot, Luck Money he was thought to be good enough to take his chance. He too made a good impression during is nice maiden win in a traditionally hot york race. There is a doubt about the trip but clearly wise connections fancy him to get it, towards the end of a mile lto he was one paced really and it is difficult to say if he was tiring or just plugging on. Either way 14/1 looks a bit big but collection the real dark horse Im looking forward to here. 5.30 Colony 13/2 boy bog 12.5 pts e.w Daraahem 11/1 var bog 12.5 pts e.w Various formlines but sticking with colony who was my fancy in a race that sees a few of them clash again here. I felt in that race lto that Colony was just a bit one paced over slightly shorter and behind Strategic Mission who shouldnt be ignored. His win in a handicap at San looks better and better with captain webb, codiut behind and afterwards the consensus seemed to be he would get further, off 87 still feared. Daraahem is also of interest here, sprang to my attention when staying on eyecatchingly at hq in a decent race, he then won lto at chester which his trainer undoubtedly would have targetted somewhat. He was fairly impressive on both ocassions and suggested this trip is definitely within range, looks an improving sort like so many in here and interestingly connections have gone this route rather than tomorrows group race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 20, 2008 Author Share Posted June 20, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4139pts Returned 4671.17pts P/L +532.17 Yield +12.85% Strike rate 37.74% (97/257) Good day yesterday, Collection the undoubted highlight from a personal point of view. Asc 2.30 Cuis Ghaire 25 pts 11/10 var bog. Seems very short given all the unknowns and bog option useful as could drift a touch but on what she has done, the deservedly unpopular trainers record so far this week, two runners both placed in group races, form in the book by winning group race herself, fancy entries including against colts and also RPR ratings which have this a long way ahead so far I am very tempted to go with this shortish price. 3.05 Bronze Cannon 12.5 pts e.w 9/2 vc. Very tempted to go with both Conduit and this one but plumped for the e.w option with this one instead. Only been running in handicaps so far this season but that only speaks of half the story, beat doctor fremantle no less at hq and a well backed doctor fremantle at that, two of them were clear and then defied hefty rise to win another handicap at hq of which form hasnt been boosted so far but even so this looks a nice sort for an astute trainer who missed out the derby for this race and that can pay dividens here, stoute horse the danger for me, other horse with doctor fremantle form and at a higher level, all the aces, respected. 3.45 Lush Lashes 15/2 sky 12.5 pts e.w Carribean sunset 25 betfa 12.5 pts win 5.3 place 12.5 pts Lush Lashes didnt stay lto at epsom off a brutal pace, she still travelled well enough but just didnt get home for me and her trainer agrees, earlier she showed loads of class at york over the subsequent epsom second when winning with ease over 10.5f. In the actual 1000g she was the most eye catching runner for me. Finished with a real rattle that day in a slowly run and possibly not the most concrete of form race and in another half a furlong may well have won. That is the positive of that race, the negative is that she seemed outpaced earlier on at hq and unable to hold an early position of slowish pace, that is a concern and dropping to a mile today will it be the same today? However I also think lack of experience told that day, it was only here third ever run and some could argue only her 'second' ever run, today she is much more battle hardened possibly to the extent of too much as this is her fourth run in a couple of months. Whatever he early position, I expect she will be finishing strongly, im not sure if infalliable and nahoodh (sprinters?) will be. Carribean sunset is overpriced big time imo, arguably the irish 1000g form is as strong if not stronger than the eng in terms of the way the race was run. She was the unlucky one that day too when carried out by the second who was subsequently relegated spots by her actions, reopposes today. Without that I think she may just have won. Her other form stacks up too. Beat the actual ire. 1000 guineas winner earlier in the season and the eng guineas third in that race and beat the oaks third from john oxx's yard. Behind lush lashes in big sales race last year too iin third. Seems to have escaped teh eyes of a few, from in the book. 4.20 Monte Alto 5/1 var 12.5 pts e.w Buccellati 11/1 var 12.5 pts e.w. Monte Alto was a progressive handicapper last year running in some of the top handicaps last year culminating in a race behind pipedreamer in the cambridgeshire. He looked to have maintained all of that ability and possibly more when third lto and is only raised a pound more, stepping up in grade but looks the type of typical cumani improver to do so. Buccellati is a horse i like and have done well out of it towards the end of last season. frustrating initially last year with a host of 'unlucky' efforts in top races behind the likes of zaham, regal flush, pipedreamer with his hold up and delivered late style. He put that right with three back to back wins, often coming late to win, teh win at don. was very impressive given circumstances, often blocked off but still managed to swoop late and win, showed ability remains lto with good effort in group race that would have him up for this, visor returns today and bold bid expected, probably will be coming late and will need the gaps. 4.55 Captain webb 7/1 var 12.5 pts e.w Stoute horse all the range and whilst I think this trip is fine for him he does seem a bit tricky at times. so going with Johnston's Captain webb. The trainer has a great record in this of late with loads of winners in this rate and had other options for this progressive horse but chose this one which maybe significant. Won a host of handicaps before coming up short at san. when technically well in that day, now that race looks no ordianry handicap with Colony and conduit coming out fo it to win in better races since. He bounced back to form with a galloping win at hamilton in a listed contest after that and whilst teh longer trip is a bit of an unknown, his galloping style suggests it is within his range. 5.30 Zaahid 5/1 boy bog 12.5 pts e.w, Iguazu Falls 13/2 boy bog 12.5 pts e.w and Border music 18/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w all 5 places which does mean sometimes lightly lesser prices taken but all are bog. Zaahid is a well known horse now and he won the victoria cup lto and did it well, was really well backed too and got his deserved big handicap win after a series of decent efforts. the rise of 6 pounds could be significant but i wouldnt rule out it overcoming that, handles conditions which is very improtant round here and likely to run his race from low draw. Iguazu falls bolted up lto over 7f which was a trip he was needing imo after a series of decent efforts in listed races over a further trip that he never really got for me. Drawn high today, he is actually lower in the weights today and I still think there is improvement at this trip, he is a younger horse, only 3 taking on his elders but if he handles the cavalry charge then he shouldnt be overlooked. Drawn near the godolphin horse is border music who is very interesting for me, an extremely good traveller in his races, absolutely cruising at times and lto was no different when just beaten here. Has run at variety of trips and ideally I would prefer him in the wokingham tomorrow but 7f today and bound to be travelling well at one point. what I would say is that in terms of its a/w rating it is still a bit well in and thats significant for me especially at this tarck, a/w horses do so well over this staright track, mr aviator another the same day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 21, 2008 Author Share Posted June 21, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4364pts Returned 4988.36pts P/L +624.36 Yield +14.307% Strike rate 37.96% (101/266) 100th winner up yesterday. Ayr 4.20 Senatorial 9/4 sky 15 pts. Interesting runner for hills up north, highly thought of, abdullah's racing manager said this was one of his best two year olds and showed promise with first run behind art connoisseur and then to some degree at chester when seemed not totally suited by the track, lto initially i thought was disappointing it couldnt win but it might have bumped into a couple of decent sorts including my asc. fancy later, will give it another chance today. Newm 2.15 Dubai Meydan 7/2 var 15 pts Got a bit of talent this horse, possibily a bit awkward, high head carriage but was flying at the death lto at epsom when unlucky really and left with too much to do. Clearly showed promise last year to race in the dewhurst even though outclassed and reprtedly has worked before with the likes of fajr and vortex and for whats its worth they are much higher handicapped than this one who is going in that direction. Put Asc up in a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 21, 2008 Author Share Posted June 21, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Asc Tricky because any late weather could hold the key. 2.30 Free Agent 25 pts 14/5 spo Queens runner who left a good impression lto on debut, won cosily that day over a horse who ran creditibly in the listed race earlier in the week and the abdullah horse who ive already talked about. Should come on for that first run and appreciate the trip, derby entered for the future. 3.05 Spanish moon 25 pts 3/1 var Speed Gifted 12.5 pts e.w 7/1 var. tough race as I like Macarthur who should have won the leger last year and ran well last two starts but two possible improvers here. the stoute horse has already had a big reputation and was visually impressive lto, won only a length or so but could have been so much more and did well to overcoming trouble in running, only fourth start today so lots of improvement possible still. Speed gifted is another interesting one. Very impressive at york towards the end of last season and really looked a group horse in the amking of connections wanted to go that way, could have gone ebor route, yet in listed race lto finished well, did hang right but that may have been a bit of keeness for its first run of the season, clearly has the talent and today we see how much. 3.45 Sahkees Secret 12.5 pts e.w 9/2 bog, Marchand dor 12.5 pts e.w 11/2 bog and Balthazaars Gift 20/1 7.5 pts e.w ALL 4 places, sometimes lesser prices taken. Sahkees Secret is seemingly ground dependent and needs it dry but undoubtedly is a class act, improved a lot last season from handicap/listed into group 1 july cup win where he travelled so so well, struggled after that on possibly softer ground then it should have been, either way a class act last year and first run this year with penalty ran well over shorter 5f, this is more his trip today. The french horse is a late inclusion, wasnt going to back him as looking back last year he was good but just lacking top top class but re appearance was very good under penalty over shorter and form boosted so much on tue., reportedly improved this year for overcoming slight injury last season and judging by last season he didnt have to improve by much. Balthazaars gift loves ascot which is very significant on the stright course, has a top record on the course and nearly won this race two years back, needs a few runs each year to get going and seemingly has now afetr ok run on wrong side at yorka nd late win at win. lto, likes big fields too. 4.25 Abraham Lincoln 9/1 bog 12.5 pts e.w, Knot in Wood 10/1 bog 12.5 pts e.w and Lippoco 11/1 bog 12.5 pts e.w all 5 places again slightly less price taken at times. O'Brien interestingly sends a runner for a handicap and that in itself could be significant, abraham lincoln ran quite well over 5f given easy time in group 1 on tue. and seems to be going the right way, second before in listed race was good as was effort in group 2 here last year, knot in wood just ahead. Knot in wood could possibly be better with some cut as he showed with one devestating example last season when beating protector up north, ran well too in stewards cup which was quicker and same mark today, probably had this race in mind after disappointing effort in it last year tbh, ran lto over inadequte 5f was slightly eye cathcing. Lippoco has bags of pace and ability, possibly not the strongest finisher which is a concern but showed good recent form in lised race when my jubilee fancy only just got up late to beat it and top weight today was behind that day. 5.00 Mad rush 3/1 25 pts var Ezdiyaad 11/1 spor 12.5 pts e.w Mad rush is a nice sort who has been a bit unlucky on his last three runs arguably, bumped into three horses all of whom who have proved they were well in, the two it lost two last season are now 19 pounds and 27 pounds higher which says something and punjabi who it made late progress behind lto as moore got slightly troubled journey just to lose, won lto, still quite lighty raced and probably set out for this by trainer, rise in weights from lto might not be enough. Ezdiyaad might not run if there is no rain, he is a huge horse, denman style horse, I see him win good hq maiden last year, bankable behind, and he has gone on with two nice wins so far this season and shapes as though trip will suit and another going teh right way, bit concerned about the ground though as may need softer. 5.35 Enjoy the Moment 12.5 pts e.w 7/1 i wouldnt describe him as the best horse in this race as o'brien and cecil's horses have much more talent in my eyes but what we do know is that he gets this trip, he won this race last year and its just possible that by the last race it could be softer, certainly looks like its heading that way from looking at he clouds and if it does this will be a real stamina test and play to this ones strength for a trainer who has come close this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 22, 2008 Author Share Posted June 22, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4684pts Returned 5175.86pts P/L +491.86 Yield +10.5% Strike rate 37.14% (104/280) Didnt have quite as good a day yesterday but overall Ascot went quite well and profit for the week, Collection the personal highlight. Pont 3.10 Detonator 11/1 boy bog 7.5 pts e.w Think this one is big myself, forecast only 5/1 and even though i can understand that given the form of Haggas' horses why his one is short, johnston's runner should not be overlooked. Second on debut in a decentish maiden, Dubai Meydan in behind but then was a comprehensive winner on the a/w at wolv. when bolted up by 9 lengths. Been alloted a mark of 87 fro that which could be a touch harsh but in truth it is tough to know really until he has raced again and 11/1 is a biggish price that I didnt really expect to get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 25, 2008 Author Share Posted June 25, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4699pts Returned 5201.36pts P/L +502.36 Yield +10.69% Strike rate 37.36% (105/281) Sails 2.10 Our Wee Girl 15/8 var bog 15 pts Not massive amounts of form on show for this 2 year old race but this one has caught the eye so far and shown some raw ability, still a bit green at times, is Kirk's Our Wee Girl. It was considered good enough to run at epsom lto and backed like it was going to win but failed to really take to the track. However it wasnt given a hard time when beaten and on previous form should be good enough to take a maiden at some point. Behind well regarded Please Sing at Leic who disappointed at Asc. but was considered good enough to start at just 6/1 and well ahead of stablemate, who they may have a line to, and who ended third. Run on debut was respectable too and obvious chance today, drawn 1 I dont see as a huge problem as so far it has not been prominent often through its own fault. Gosden's runner could be the danger. 4.15 Hustle 13/5 spo 15 pts Fair sort last year, won a couple of races, nothing amazing but solid enough. Didnt really like soft ground first start this year but showed up better after that on the a/w and run lto encourages. Came second that day over a furlong more than todays trip but i dont think a mile would really cause much problems and indeed style could well be to be prominent or lead as has done so before. Raised only a couple of pounds for that effort. Yard in good form and bold bid expected. Kem 8.50 Sister Act 9/1 var 7.5 pts e.w As the name suggests, related to high high class, soviet song and we all know what she did as an older horse and clearly there are hopes this one could develop although disappointing so far. Showed up really well in one maiden last year behind Promising Lead but then countless ordinary efforts until finally winning on the a/w, ordinary race but she did it well, here in fact and a return to the surface could be the key, may have needed run lto and trainer who was very quiet, has suddenly had a couple of winners which encourages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 26, 2008 Author Share Posted June 26, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4744pts Returned 5201.36pts P/L +457.36 Yield +9.64% Strike rate 36.97% (105/284) Great Leighs 4.10 Almajd 8/11 var bog 15 pts Been out for a while so there may be some fitness doubts fto but really I think this one is a class apart from these imo. Created a really good impression on debut when winning at hq with so many nice types behind such as virtual, porthole, roaring forte, foolin myself etc. all of whom have gone on and won since and there are others, at this point people were understandably thinking 2000G, then it went off to a group 3 and finished fifth and in truth it was a bit disappointing such was its impression created on debut, however the ground may have been unfavourable that day and interesting stoute puts him on the a/w today which clearly he expects him to handle, not surprised at all it is odds on especially as I feel tasdeer hasnt gone on from early promise and gaspar van wittel may be batter back a furlong or two. 5.10 Heaven knows 5/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Represents the pretty much inform Haggas yard and interestingly this one ran some nice races earlier in the season when the trainer wasnt in such good form, notably third in a decent race at nott., disappointed after that at how when prominent over a trip which probably is shorter than ideal but first time headgear today, which I dont see as a huge negative myself, could well see him in the shake up today for a plac at the minimum. Newc 3.30 Tazeez 6/4 var 15 pts. Interesting little race and Im not surprised to see one of the least exposed runners with just three runs to his name, being backed. I liked this horse on debut when caught late on the line when personally I thought the rider brought his challenge to soon for such an inexperienced horse, then disappointed at odds on towards the back end of the season but fto this season he was pretty impressive, won at yarm. pretty comfortably and the form of that race has been boosted with a couple going out a winning since, makes his handicap bow with a mark of 94 today but the suggestion from the impression created lto and the market today is that this is an improving horse who is up to a mark like that. Huge rain would be a big help to Rio Riva as an alternative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 27, 2008 Author Share Posted June 27, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4789pts Returned 5201.36pts P/L +412.36 Yield +8.61% Strike rate 36.58% (105/287) Nothing last couple of days. Newc 7.25 Ishetoo 17/2 var 7.5 pts e.w Very consistent horse of late, progressed very well last season in a variety of conditions and 5f suits this one best I feel. Lto over further it ran a solid race but just faltered a bit late on in a decent race that had a nice progressive winner. Previous runs at 5f including at York and Thirsk show all the ability this one has and remains on a career high mark of 93 but one that is not impossible off. Drawn near some pace from German horse and there are a couple of others who it could track although this one has known to be prominent at times as well. Solid place claims at least. I like Barney McGrew too and although he is a strong traveller which should help dropping back in trip, I just dont see him as a 5f horse, more 6f. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4804pts Returned 5201.36pts P/L +397.36 Yield +8.27% Strike rate 36.45% (105/288) Curr 3.45 Finsceal Beo 2/1 spo 15 pts Top top horse early on last year, won Eng and Ire 1000G and so nearly the French too. However no surprise that the relentless campaign given to her took its toll and she faded later in the season. This season she has come back to form though, run Duke of Marmalade close over 12.5f which I dont think she saw out properly especially in comparison to the winner and ran a good solid third in the Queen Anne. Up to the 10f today which clearly the thinking is that she does get and although Im not convinced completely, i believe she has enough class and form to beat these, promising lead was a real improver last year and was ahead of FB in france but FB seems a different horse now. 4.45 Septimus 3/5 spo 15 pts Decent price imo. i expected 4/9 or something like that. the only slight concern would be fitness posssibly fto but clearly o'brien wants him to run and the good ones from his yard have still managed to win fto this season (yeats, dom, htn etc.) despite some needing the run. On ratings and class the rest of these have it all to find with septimus who offically was a better rated horse than yeats and looks certain to step into his shoes at one point. I think he may have won the GC if given the chance and this is perhaps his starting point to start again. Don 7.10 Wyatt Earp 8/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Not a totally reliable handicapper and one that often frustratingly flashes late but just that bit too late. However he is talented and by knwoing being dropped to 80 the handicapper really is giving him a real chance, he hasnt been that low since 2005, his first run this season encourages over an inadequte 5f when flashing late again, not produced form after that on two most recent runs but with a strongish pace likely, it could just play into his hands and I do feel that 80 is a fair mark now. 8.15 Ainaa 10/1 pp 7.5 pts e.w Gosden horse a warmish order but this one shouldnt be completely overlooked. Ran with a bit of promise when well beaten on debut but run lto definitely encourages, in what looks a strongish maiden he, under minimum effort, made late strides to be a never nearer fourth. Second come out and won since. On form through the 'non stayer' La Troupe has it to find with the fav but he should liek the extra 2f tonight no problem and e.w is a solid bet. Newc 3.20 Highland Legacy 5/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Whispering Death 25/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Highland Legacy has been very progressive this season and towards the end of last, he clearly thrives at this trip and even though he is on a career high mark, he deserves that mark and there are enough reasons to suggest that he is a major player today. Galloping track today will suit better than chester lto, handles a bit of cut no problem at all and indeed a possible advantage from that and trainer looking to repeat last years success. whispering death always seems to run with in these types of races and often with credit such as the cesar. a couple of years back, a major bridle horse but the type who could easily place in this, ran eye catchingly lto over shorter when staying on and wide draw will not be a major problem for a horse who is normally dropped in, 25/1 too big. 3.55 Redford 2/1 bog 15 pts. turing into an extremely short horse today but that is due to the reputation created of late and he is the one who has done that. Decent last year including run behind spacious but win two starts back at don. was nice and form of that is pretty decent, a couple in behind who ran really well at royal ascot especially and this one was cruising at asc. over a mile at 2f before appearing to not quite getting home so drop back to 7f I think should suit, drawn low which isnt ideal seemingly although not certain of that totally but could potetially come over like yesterdays 5f winner. Newm 3.35 King of Dixie 11/10 var bog 15 pts Really nice improver, jsut a handful of starts but defitely going the right way, remember him catching my eye in the victoria cup having missed the break only to be in the lead a furlong out and unsurprisingly running out of gas to be third, proved his upward class after that when beating a decent field at york and no surpise to see him in a group 3. Appalachian trial is a solid sort who ran a nic erace lto and from boosted since but he might be facing a real improver here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 29, 2008 Author Share Posted June 29, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 4909pts Returned 5270.36pts P/L +361.36 Yield +7.36% Strike rate 36.27% (107/295) Saint Cloud 3.28 Youmzain 8/1 12.5 pts e.w var bog. Top race this with SOF, Getaway, Doctor Dino and not to mention the leger winner. However Youmzain seems too big to me yet again. Lto at Epsom I was a big Getaway fan after the very impressive reputation it created at hq but he never seemed truly comfortable and even though he is one not to lose faith with entirely, I would want something bigger than 3/1. Youmzain on the other hand ran another blinder at Epsom, in typical fashion iit charged late and only just failed to pull in SOF who may have slightly needed the run but even still there should not be such a price difference between the two. remember Youmzain was ahead of all of these when second in the Arc and arguably should have been the winner if the French rule book would have been used correctly. It doesnt seem to win much but what he does do is generally is run top class races in the best races and if the rider can time his ride correctly today then he can go very close again. Win 3.40 Porthole 9/4 var bog 15 pts. Third on debut last season in what was a good hq maiden, loads of winners from that race and fulfilled the promise showed from that lto when he won nicely at windsor a couple of weeks back and really extended towards the finish in the fashion of a smart horse. Makes his handicap bow today and is less exposed than many of these in the race today. Curr 1.30 Zero Tolerance 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w. so tricky these types of races with loads of runners but also different kind of form but an interesting runner comes from these shores. A very decent horse on his day, he was rated in the 100s for some time and has bolted up in a listed race before when getting favoured softer ground. There is little doubt he lost his form last year but as a result he is now off a mark of just 82 which he has shown to be really competitive off. Second at Bev by a narrow margin, he then seemed a bit unlucky and even eye cathing when constantly being unable to get the gaps in a good handicap a couple of days ago at newc. There should be a bit of cut in the ground still today and place chances with moore on board. 2.40 Benbaun 9/4 avr bog 15 pts. the ultimate curragh horse here, record at here reads 9 starts, 6 wins and 3 seconds and for a sprinter that is an awesome record . Round here has almost been unbeatable and he is a good horse in general, won group 1 last year in france ahead of kingsgate native and has had ok if not really spectaculor runs so far this season. The doubt is the ground, generally he likes it good and there could be a bit of cut today, certainly wont be lightening fast and even though he won his group 1 on gd-sft last year really it wasnt that ground. even still he seems a class above these and good enough to win this with a penalty, myboycharlie I dont see as a 5f horse myself. 3.50 Tartan Bearer 11/10 var bog 25 pts (stakes raised a bit) At epsom I backed both this one and the winner and it couldnt have worked out much better. This one ran another blinder to be second, delivered by moore perfectly I thought to win his race and just caught out by one exceptional horse who had the form coming into the race, even so Tartan Bearer was fighting all the way to the line just like Golan so often did. If NA would have turned up I would be on TB anyway because this is such a progressive animal, in May it was still winning a maiden, shows can handle a touch of cut, then it won the dante, just doing enough as its still is and then it progressed again in the derby, the run of frozen fire (close behind at york), may not have truly run its race but even still gives an indication of its improvement. Looks a really nice horse and capable of landing an irish derby today. Of the challengers casual conquest could be feared most but Im not sure he can overturn the form with TB and that goes for the rest of them too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5004pts Returned 5435.99pts P/L +431.99 Yield +8.63% Strike rate 36.33% (109/300) Newb 7.25 Cerito 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Bolted up impressively at Bath on debut and clearly well thought of by connections as it went to ascot as just 6/1 second fav for the norfolk. Tried to chase the speedy winner South Central that day and paid for it to finish only in midfield. Moves up to 6f but I dont see as a huge problem, indeed on debut it was extending at the end admittedly against inferior opposition, trainer still seems to think a lot of it and indeed has targetted this race often before. 7.55 Atlantic Sport 7/4 var 15 pts Another Channon horse and the most interesting of the day without doubt, indeed its in my TTTF. Really taken with this ones maiden which has worked out, three nice horses eventually pulled clear and this one was given hardly any encouragement by his jockey as he won relatively cosily for a short head, the horse in third was the jersey winner, aqlaam. Sent out just 5/2 for champagne where he was disappointing to me, arguably run to a similar level of form but couldnt quite take the step up. However this half brother to Zafeen has reportedly been working well at times over the winter and was described by one source as wintering magnificently. It has had some problems as he was going to go for the Guineas and then the St James' Palace but the Sussex entry indicates ambitions remain lofty for this one and he starts at 7f today and whilst his main rival red alert day is consistent, I dont see him having anywhere near the potential of this one, could be smart. 9.00 Dancer in Demand 5/4 var bog 15 pts Ran an eyecatching race on debut when third, stayed on relentlessly to be third and gave the impression after that that he was a potential winner in waiting and that he would appreciate a step up in trip which he has today. His maiden hasnt actually really worked out that well and that is a bit of a negative but he is the stand out pick for obviously respected connections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5049pts Returned 5477.24pts P/L +428.24 Yield +8.48% Strike rate 36.30% (110/303) Hay 8.30 Askar Tau 11/8 var bog 15 pts. The yard really are hitting some decent form of late and they have had some biggish priced horse go quite close of late and this one lto is one of them. Ran at great leighs and after the classic three average runs to get a mark and then stepping up in trip, he performed creditibly to only just lose a short head, the front two were miles clear and quite clearly this is a horse well in, officially 8 pounds well in at least and with the yard in such decent form he is the selection. 9.00 Ma Al Salamah 25/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Reasonably interesting darkhorse here who may be a tad overpriced. Blatently failed to stay lto so drop in trip suits and on little bits of maiden form it could be overlooked, ran on a bit on debut, run behind masaalek again offers a small bit of hope at what is a lowish level. Stable been quiet most of the season but could be just starting to hit some form and off a mark of just 60 could do a bit of damage. San 4.35 Prince Forever 14/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Been a bit of a talking horse at times, indeed after winning on debut he was just 9/2 for an exceptionally hot champagne. During three year old career had one good run in a listed event behind tariq. This season started off poorly really but gradually has improved a bit on each run and gradually its mark has started to come down to something a bit more realistic out of the 100s to high 90s. Lto I thought he didnt quite get the trip at epsom so drop back in trip today I see as suiting, anything the trainer sends out atm needs big respect and at 14/1 that seems a fair price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5079pts Returned 5512.87pts P/L +433.87 Yield +8.54% Strike rate 36.39% (111/305) Off to San tomorrow but should be back in the morning to get some prices up. firstly at Hay: 3.30 Buccelatti 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w I like this horse, backed him loads of times last year when he looked a horse that was progressive and at first just bumping into one or two like zaham and pipedreamer before finally getting in front and run up some nice wins at the back end of the year. Undoubtedly tricky but his style suits these big handicaps well and I think todays trip will as well, lto ran with credit as he did at san too but just couldnt quite have enough to quicken at the lesser trip at asc and today should suit with buick on board. San 2.10 Hoh Mike 15 pts win Won this last year and really likes Sandown, won on other start here too and stiffish 5f plays to his swooping late strength. Performed reasonably so far this season and indeed last run in group 1 was arguably even better than that, officially the best of these and likely to go very close if Spencer gets his challenge right. 2.40 Masaalek 7.5 pts e.w 11/2 var bog Toughish race to call and nearly went for Fifteen Love whos win lto wasnt a total shock as it looked smart when beating collection as a 2 year old and that he had a big race in him. however Masaalek ran with so much credit at asc. when second behind fifteen love on the far side and is weighted to turn that form around. He has improved considerably this season and has built on every run at a time when the stable hasnt exactly been in great form. That has changed now as the stable now are in good form with winners and horses at big prices running really well. Definite place claims at least. 3.20 Rob Roy 7.5 pts e.w 16/1 bog Poor race by eclipse standards and could be ripe for a 'shock.' Rob roy has always had the talent and the reputation and I just wonder is this where he delivers. He has run well over the years at time, couple of group wins and a stormer in the champion stakes behind pride but in front of a horse of the class of hurricane run, he ran well in the breeders cup too when storming far too late over a mile from his american jock. After that a spell in the states didnt work but back in stoutes hands he warrents respect. FTO this season encourages over shorter and Im prepared to forgive his run in a messy lockinge where he uncomfortably made it. I think this trip suits, certainly on his 2006 champion stakes run it does and may well have been overlooked for the trainer and jockey combo who infamously won this last year. 4.30 Ajaan 7.5 pts e.w Very talented if not quirky horse. Showed that especially at hq earlier in the season when survived stewards to win. However despite quirks, ability cant be questioned and is a really nice horse, progressed well over increasing trips this year and at the end of last and lto couldnt stay the marathon trip at asc. There is the danger that this race could come too soon afterwards but clearly cecil thinks he is fine and back at a trip more in his radar has solid e.w claims at least if price allows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Hoh Mike 2/1 var bog Ajaan 4/1 var bog, still e.w but slight deficit if places only at that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5154pts Returned 5530.68pts P/L +376.68 Yield +7.3% Strike rate 36.12% (112/310) Newm 1.30 Red Dune 2/1 var 15 pts Seems quite short for such a competitive race but i can understand why she is so short, fourth in what turned out to be quite a good maiden last year, she then ran what turned out to be a fine race behind illusion at windsor. Illusion who just beat her as she paid for being too keen and therefore without a major finishing kick has since gone onto race some crackers and is 90+ rated no problem. Won nicely after that and form of that win has been boosted in parts with second winning since and others running with some credit at times. Definitely fits the profile of progressive animal and drop back to 7f might just help her settle that bit better which has been the slight problem so fat. Trainer doing real well of late. 2.00 Tawaash 17/2 spo 7.5 pts e.w Thebes 16/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Tricky race but going with two quick horses here who will probably be up there. Of course nowhere yet knows the best place to be if there is a best place to be but in the middle both of these have some claims. Tawaash is relatively unexposed in comparison to some of these with just four runs, one a decent second at hq maiden on debut and then two nice wins showing lots of pace at 7f, then ran in group 3 at asc. before fading late on but still ran with some credit. Whether its pace at 7f will quite translate to 6f could be a possible question but personally I dont see that as a real issue, it seems speedy to me no matter what and on evidence of last run drop to 6f and a fairly stiffish 6f at that should suit. Trainer form very good. Thebes is an interesting for another trainer who after a quiet spell maybe coming into form. Had a spell of wins on a/w after initial second and some really nice wins at that, one over Wighams Turn who reopposes later today. Then was tried on turf at asc., not a bad idea at all for an a/w horse, but blatently didnt stay over a mile that day having showed some pace initially in a competitive handicap. Back over this trip today he must have some chances, trainer in better form now and whilst hasnt shown real turf ability yet, I would be very surprised if cant act on it and another with decent place chances at least. 2.35 Lucky Leigh 3/1 var 15 pts Could be a nightmare race if the ground drastically changes but playing it by chance one I like is this ones run when fourth in the Queen Mary. Considering she was bang in the middle and without the strongest leads into the race, I thought this one ran a cracker and Im sure that whatever other people say, right in the middle where this one was, wasnt the place to be lto. Created nice impression earlier when bolting up in maiden. Interesting that they have gone to 6f already but on what she has achieved already in that last race she has a very useful chance and maybe slightly overpriced as O'Brien shortens. 3.10 Leaving the group 1 alone but very surprised that they are running Finsceal Beo yet again! 4.20 Hall Hee 4/1 var bog 15 pts Could turn out to be hot race this in time with big stables represented and also Eqbaal and King O The Gypsies catching the eye previously. However another one that caught the eye before undoubtedly was this one. From the family of Sir Percy an dracing over probably an inadequte mile on debut, without a clear run he finished a very useful third, the second has since bolted up and one or two others have run with credit from that race. Step up really should suit and trainer as I have mentioned before is pretty hot right now from what he runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5229pts Returned 5599.12pts P/L +370.12 Yield +7.07% Strike rate 36.19% (114/315) Newm 1.30 Bouguereau 11/10 var bog 15 pts On ratings this one is definitely the stand out pick and if you go on that he has a fair bit on hand. Has ran two very nice races this year either way of a run in italy. beat Unnefer in one and in the other performed with a bit of credit in the derby where basically he just plugged on so this type of trip should suit and has proved he can handle a touch of cut already. 2.35 Jedediah 14/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w, Missioner 28/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Tricky race. jedediah seems to be suggesting that he needs a trip now. He might be a bit more exposed than some of these but what he has done is run some very solid races in some decent handicaps including lto at asc when he finished a staying on sixth over shorter. Longer trip today could bring on that touch more improvemnet with clamier booked. Missioner I belive maybe a big price from a place point of view at the least. Last year ran some very promising races against some nice 2 year olds as they were then, city leader etc. This year started off with three decent runs, one behind lazy days who he has a weight pull with today, won his maiden and hen was just second in a handicap, fighting all the way too the line. Moved up in trip at asc. he didnt seem to get the extra trip but with the trainer in much better form now, a drop back to 10f and knowing that he can go on a variety of conditions, he is respected. 4.20 Alfathaa 10/3 var 15 pts Generous Thought is respected moving up in trip but this one sets just a slightly higher level of form. Third behind Spacious in a really useful maiden before then routing the opposition nto before a good run with a bit of cut over a mile in the group 1 at asc and that run gives him a really solid chance today and a bit ahead of these. This season however it hasnt all been plain sailing, tried and disappointed in Guineas and lto over further it travelled ok in a slowly run race but having been snatched up he didnt get home. Today the blinkers remain and over this trip and against this opposition, he has a real chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Rover Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Good luck Woody i think Alfathaa has a very good chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 11, 2008 Author Share Posted July 11, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5289pts Returned 5745.37pts P/L +456.37 Yield +8.62% Strike rate 36.05% (115/319) Newm 1.30 Throne of Power 14/1 tote 7.5 pts e.w Perks 8/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Throne of Power is a nice looking sort who may just need a run or two a times to get into his frame, a bit unlucky at hq earlier, he then won nicely after that pulling clear over 7f of a horse who has run well since. Lto he ran ok at asc but could never quite get the finishing kick on the far side in a traditionally hot race, I do have a slight doubt about a strongly run mile but as long as he does get it then he is a big strapping horse who may have a few pounds in hands when he gets it right in a hot race. Perks is another nice horse. Improved a lot this year incl. win at don in similar conditions where he routed lots of this fields and an inconvenienced collection, after that ran ok at hq just behind a couple of these and then again at asc. when just behind a couple of these but its just possible that firstly a touch of cut is importnat and he will get that today and also lto that the middle draw made things difficult, todays draw for my selections is more suitable. 2.35 Zaahid 5/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Backed him loads of times and he has done very well yet again this year. May have needed first run of the season but ran really well after that when given too much to do but then in victoria cup he won pretty well, travelling with style before picking up to win, the top few that day looked nice horses. Up 6 pounds for that but in truth thats fair enough. Ground should be fine with a slight bit of cut still there a fraction. Concerns would possibly drawn 1 as Im not sure right up far side is ideal but its possible that he will be dropped in so thats not going to be as big an issue as if he made it. Other concern could be hills' form but he had a nice 2 year old winner yesterday so its possible hes putting that right now and of course has won this before including last year. Diamond Tycoon would be my outsider if it really dried, top horse who may love this trip, trainer improving and not handicapped that badly now on promise of last year. 3.10 Marchand D Or 7/2 var 25 pts (group 1) Has to reverse the form with some of these but this top class french horse is very much capable of doing that. Was a really solid horse last year, running some consistent races at the top level and often on quick ground that may not have been completely ideal. This season is reportedly a better horse and has overcome a slight injury that was troubling him a tad last year and if thats the case then its pretty frightening. Win in france was awesome, had penalty to overcome and yet picked up the king stand winner late and sir gerry was back in third, a repeat of that will make him hard to beat and imo that showed he could do on quicker as the time suggests otherwise to going description, 57 secs isnt slow. Things didnt go right at asc lto, hit trouble in running not to mention disadvantaged by draw but the presence of sir gerry (third at asc) gives an indication of the level he is capable of. Middle draw looks fine. Really looks the stand out imo to get a deserved big win in this country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 12, 2008 Author Share Posted July 12, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5359pts Returned 5857.87pts P/L +498.87 Yield +9.30% Strike rate 35.9% (116/323) Asc 2.55 Pressing 7/1 var bog 8 pts win Top race this one and a couple of eagerly awaited returns. However one of the most interesting moves is to move Pressing back to a mile. Personally I think it is a move that might just work. Pressing has won group 1s all over the place if not in the top top grade if that still follows and often over further and sometimes with a bit of cut. However lto in the Prince of Wales over further he looked to have stole a march on the field a furlong or two out yet he weakened almost immediately and did so in the manner of a horse that possibly might not be incovenienced by a try at this trip. will be difficult with the penalty which may open the race up for Cesare who surely wont find the trouble he did lto here but this oen shouldnt be overlooked. York 2.10 Vainglory 16/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Reasonably consisitent horse, wont have loads of pounds in hand if any but what he does do is often run some decent races and he is a fair price here in a race that looks to be cutting up. Runs since dubai have all been respectable and indeed run lto was arguably a bit better than that in what turned out to be a hot race at eps, has form on soft from earlier in career if not heavy and moving back in trip may actually work given how testing it will be, claimer booked. 3.15 Ezdiyaad 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w May not be first choice but it cant have been an easy call. This is a really nice big horse, Denman comparisons even. Came to some form at the end of last year and exploited possible favourable mark to win 3 times with some ease this season. LTO the combination of quick ground and extended trip found him out but he remains a fascinating horse and moved back in trip today should suit, handles cut and should handle heavy too, drawn ok in 3 to get reasonable position and trainer form better now then was earlier in season when this one was winning despite that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted July 13, 2008 Author Share Posted July 13, 2008 Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008 Staked 5397pts Returned 5876.62pts P/L +479.62 Yield +8.88% Strike rate 35.88% (117/326) Chant 1.45 Ravens Pass 19/10 25 pts Top group 1 race and a horse who seems to deserve such a race. Run some top races at times at 3 and indeed at 2 and was no more impressive than lto when just behind HTN when he was the last horse of the bridle, showing once agin what great cruising speed he has. A reproduction of that run I think will be good eenough myself, many behind lto probably will struggle to overturn the form. Proved now he can get the mile even though I think he could drop back in trip myself given his cruising speed if they wanted too, however conditions fien today and the one to beat. Winker Watson is interesting on return. Curr 3.05 Masta Plasta 8/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Tricky race with so many different formlines but a horse that catches the eye this speedy horse from nicholls who seems back to his best now. Top class at 2, won at asc./york, he returned back to soemthing like his best when making all at york a couple of starts back, then ran really well in the dash showing loads of speed and surely if he was drawn higher he would have been hard to beat. Run lto in french listed race was good too, just caught late and form of that has been boosted since as first and third from that race were first and second in group race since. Should be up there and give really good acount of himself again for a trainer whos doen well with his raids into ireland. 4.10 Mad About You 5/1 var bog 12.5 pts e.w Be very interesting to see how this race is run with o'briens especially. I say that because the oaks was run at a ridiculous pace, not too disimilar to the coronation the same day and quicker than the derby, that found out the non stayers and also those who were that bit too close to the pace. Thats why i think moonstone may have been a bit flattered at eps. and for me just plugged on relentlessly like a leger horse, she may be vulnerable to a slightly speedier type. That one could be Mad About You whos stabel first choice. Really good rusn this year, in Guineas ire. version when second and then again lto over 10f when chasing promising lead and slightly one paced at the death but still running a fine effort. On class she has to be a major player, the slight doubt is the extra trip and if they go so fast then it may find her out but as long as her jockey doesnt get involved in speed duels like he did to the weld horse in the oaks and therefore give her a chance of getting the trip then she is a real contender, if she can just get the trip I think she has a really good chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.